Tag: gambling addiction enabler

Gambling Addiction Enabler Head-To-Head: April Edition


(Pictured above: A perfect example of the Easy Money/KILL IT WITH FIRE dichotomy of MMA gambling.)

With the UFC alone churning out an event a week nowadays, there has never been a better time to be an MMA fan with a crippling gambling addiction. But being that we have neither the time nor the patience to dedicate an entire article to the moneymaking opportunities present in Richard Walsh vs. Chris Indich (<—actual fight happening this week), we’ve instead rounded up our two most compulsive gamblers, staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo, and had them highlight the best fights to bet on this month, “versus” style, in a revamped version of the gambling addiction enabler you all know and love. Enjoy.

The Main Events
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Tim Kennedy (+155) vs. Michael Bisping (-175)

Seth: You really have to love the irony here: Jake Shields was released from the UFC because he’ll never be a contender. The next four guys to headline UFC cards? Big Nog, Roy Nelson, Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping. Oh man, that’s good stuff.

Anyways, Bisping shall take the unanimous decision. There shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Jared: Ugh, another Michael Bisping fight featuring a heated build-up that is all but guaranteed to underwhelm once the actual cage door closes. I hate to agree with my fellow staffer, for he is a contemptuous scoundrel of the worst nature, but Bisping should use his length and endless gastank to jab and jog his way to another UD here. Kennedy may have been able to KO Rafael Natal (on few days notice) in front of his fellow rangers, but this fight should go down in incredibly similar fashion to his fight with Luke Rockhold, with Kennedy unable to secure a takedown and coming up short on the majority of his punches.

Bisping is being slightly undervalued here in my opinion, and at his current return is good enough to make a parlay. What? PATRIOTISM HAS NO PLACE IN THE GAMBLING SPECTRUM.


(Pictured above: A perfect example of the Easy Money/KILL IT WITH FIRE dichotomy of MMA gambling.)

With the UFC alone churning out an event a week nowadays, there has never been a better time to be an MMA fan with a crippling gambling addiction. But being that we have neither the time nor the patience to dedicate an entire article to the moneymaking opportunities present in Richard Walsh vs. Chris Indich (<—actual fight happening this week), we’ve instead rounded up our two most compulsive gamblers, staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo, and had them highlight the best fights to bet on this month, “versus” style, in a revamped version of the gambling addiction enabler you all know and love. Enjoy.

The Main Events
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Tim Kennedy (+155) vs. Michael Bisping (-175)

Seth: You really have to love the irony here: Jake Shields was released from the UFC because he’ll never be a contender. The next four guys to headline UFC cards? Big Nog, Roy Nelson, Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping. Oh man, that’s good stuff.

Anyways, Bisping shall take the unanimous decision. There shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Jared: Ugh, another Michael Bisping fight featuring a heated build-up that is all but guaranteed to underwhelm once the actual cage door closes. I hate to agree with my fellow staffer, for he is a contemptuous scoundrel of the worst nature, but Bisping should use his length and endless gastank to jab and jog his way to another UD here. Kennedy may have been able to KO Rafael Natal (on few days notice) in front of his fellow rangers, but this fight should go down in incredibly similar fashion to his fight with Luke Rockhold, with Kennedy unable to secure a takedown and coming up short on the majority of his punches.

Bisping is being slightly undervalued here in my opinion, and at his current return is good enough to make a parlay. What? PATRIOTISM HAS NO PLACE IN THE GAMBLING SPECTRUM.

UFC on Fox 11 (April 19): Fabricio Werdum (+170) vs. Travis Browne (-200)

Jared: It’s getting more and more difficult to bet against Browne at this point in his career. The man is coming off back-to-back-to-back Knockout of the Nights, each one more violent than the last, and has twice shown that he can finish a fight while fending off a takedown. He’s also never been submitted. Werdum’s striking is ever-improving, sure, but his only chance here is to get this thing to the ground early and hope that doesn’t wake up dead whilst attempting to do so. I wouldn’t suggest a straight bet here, but the +100 prop that Browne wins inside the distance is a solid gamble.

Seth: You know, I really have to disagree/agree with Jared here: Fabricio Werdum has been on top of his game since returning to the UFC and he should OH MY GOD THAT MAN IS DEAD! TRAVIS BROWNE IS THE FUTURE, I SAYS!”

UFC 172 (April 26): Glover Teixeira (+450) vs. Jon Jones (-600)

Seth: I’m putting this fight in “Stay the Hell Away From” territory, out of sheer principle. Teixeira is a beast, there’s no question about that. But after watching him get rocked by Fabio Maldonado during the first round of that massacre, I can’t in good conscience tell you guys to bet money on him being the guy to defeat Jon Jones. As for betting on Jones? If I advised you to place a bet that would pay you $1.60 for every ten bucks you wagered, I’d never be able to drink an EXTREME SPORTS ENERGY DRINK!!!1!one!!1! again without feeling like a fraud.

Look, if you really want to bet on this fight, the under on the prop that this fight lasts three and a half rounds (currently sitting at -155) is the way to go. I’d be surprised if this one makes it out of the first round.

Jared: Not only was Teixeira rocked by Fabio Maldonado, he was rocked by Ryan Bader, a.k.a the guy who never even touched Jon Jones in their fight at UFC 126 a.k.a Tito Ortiz‘s last victory. Teixeira hits hard, but so does Alexander Gustafsson, and the Brazilian is way too flat-footed to keep up with the champ. That said, I like the +255 prop that “Bones” wins by five round decision. Why? Because Jon Jones is easily ten times more arrogant than Anderson Silva ever was (I blame the surname), and it’s only a matter of time before he has his UFC 97/UFC 112 moment.

Other Fights Worth Investing In
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 26): Sam Stout (-115) vs. KJ Noons (-105)
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 26): Sarah Kaufman (-240) vs. Leslie Smith (+200)
UFC 172 (April 26): Anthony Johnson (+160) vs. Phil Davis (-185)
UFC 172 (April 26): Tim Elliott (+305) vs. Joseph Benavidez (-365)

Seth: Call me crazy, but Sam Stout at -115 against KJ Noons is a downright steal, and even though their first contest was close, I fully expect Sarah Kaufman to walk away victorious against Leslie Smith again. You may want to lock in Phil Davis at -185, because I sincerely doubt he’s staying under -200 by the time fight week comes around (I’m also pretty confident he’ll win, in case it isn’t obvious). Benavidez at -365 is barely worth the risk as a parlay addition, so go ahead and lock that up before it spirals toward -500 territory.

Jared: Sam Stout couldn’t finish a Cody McKenzie in basketball shorts who might’ve been drunk at the time and has gone win-loss since 2012. Noons to win via superior boxing. And as far as parlay bets go, it would be wise to lock down Mitch Gagnon at -285 over Tim Gorman, as it’s arguably the easiest money on the TUF Nations card.

Honestly, one of the best lines I’ve seen out there is Dustin Kimura vs. George Roop-JUST HEAR ME OUT FOR A SECOND. Roop may be one of the most inconsistent fighters in the UFC, but when he’s on, he’s on. Listed as just a -120 favorite over Kimura, an up-and-comer with decent submission skills and an unpolished striking game, a small bet on a veteran like Roop wouldn’t be the dumbest thing you could ever do. I know, I’ll see myself out.

The Good Dogs
UFC 172 (April 26): Tim Boetsch (+650) vs. Luke Rockhold (-1000)

True story: I made $80 betting on a fighter I’ve never heard of during UFC Fight Night 38. I knew absolutely nothing about Thiago Santos, other than he was a +800 underdog (?!) against -700 favorite (?!?!) Ronny Markes (?!?!?!). “There are very few fighters who should ever be -700 favorites in the UFC,” I thought before betting ten bucks on Santos. “Ronny Markes sure as hell isn’t one of them.”

I’m using the exact same school of thought here by advising you to bet on Tim Boetsch. Luke Rockhold at -1000 is ri-goddamn-diculous.

Jared: I wholeheartedly agree with your logic here, as you’d think Rockhold was fighting a UFC newb specializing in R.I.P, not a legitimate veteran who is 6-3 in his past 9 UFC contests, based on that absolutely insane line. Tim Boetsch has shown in the past that he can pull victory from the jaws of defeat, and while I think Rockhold holds an advantage in pretty much every conceivable category here, there’s no way I’d pass up a 5 dollar wager on a gritty sumbitch like Boetsch to make 32ish back.

Stay the Hell Away From
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Kyle Noke (-105) vs. Patrick Cote (-115)
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Mark Bocek (-485) vs. Mike de la Torre (+350)

Seth: I can’t think of a single reason why Mike de la Torre has a chance at winning this fight, but then again, I also can’t think of a single reason why Mark Bocek is at -495 BOOKIES WHAT ARE YOU DOING THIS ISN’T FUNNY. As for the co-main event that at least seven people are talking about? I’ll probably make a prediction for that fight by flipping a coin while they’re touching gloves before the start of round one. Just sit these two out.

Jared: Your lack of respect for Canada’s first Jiu Jitsu black belt is upsetting, to say the least. A quick look over Bocek’s record reveals that his only losses in the past 4 years have come to top contenders and future champions, and all by way of decision. Throw in the fact that he’s facing a late-replacement opponent, a UFC newcomer, nicknamed “El Cucuy,” and you’ve got all the justification for that line you will ever need.

And that co-main event you speak of? Noke’s to lose, in my opinion. Patrick Cote may have been a one-time title challenger at 185, but his only win at welterweight was a squeaker over Bobby Voelker back in March of 2013. While Noke has been on the shelf for even longer than his Canadian counterpart, I fully expect him to utilize his long jab and mix in some takedowns en route to a UD victory.

Seth: So you’d place a straight bet on him to win?

Jared: Fuck no!

Suggested Stakes for a $50 Wager
Seth: $20 on Bisping+Stout+Kaufman parlay
$20 on Davis+Benavidez parlay (yes, you should lock up those odds now)
$10 on Tim Boetsch

Jared: $20 on a Bisping+Kaufman+Gagnon
$20 on Davis+Benavidez+Miller
$5 on “The Barbarian”
$5 on a mega-super-buster parlay of Bisping+Kaufman+Gagnon+Noons+Roop

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler’ Edition

By Dan George

Someone is getting put to sleep at UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler this weekend. It’s a fact. With 26 knockouts between the main eventers alone, I will reiterate: Peoples is getting put to sleep at UFC 171. And for the first time since UFC 168, those peoples won’t be the audience (*swishes three-pointer*)

Aside from providing some prime opportunities for fans to witness a highlight reel knockout, UFC 171 is also a gambler’s paradise, so join us after the jump for a look at all the UFC 171 betting lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and our time-tested advice.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Raquel Pennington (+220) vs. Jessica Andrade (-280)

Andrade as a -280 with a loss to Liz Carmouche and a decision win against 36 year old veteran Rosi Sexton inside the Octagon is rather steep. Jessica may be the better fighter on paper, but it is hard to gauge the improvements made by Raquel since her decision victory over Roxanne Modafferi. Dana had implored Raquel to “let your hands go” during the TUF 18 season, seemingly underlining unrealised potential in the 25 year old Colorado Springs native. Will Raquel come out striking and use her size advantage to control Jessica, or will Andrade find a way to push the ground attack and control the fight on the mat? Too hard to tell from here, best to pass over and simply enjoy.

By Dan George

Someone is getting put to sleep at UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler this weekend. It’s a fact. With 26 knockouts between the main eventers alone, I will reiterate: Peoples is getting put to sleep at UFC 171. And for the first time since UFC 168, those peoples won’t be the audience (*swishes three-pointer*)

Aside from providing some prime opportunities for fans to witness a highlight reel knockout, UFC 171 is also a gambler’s paradise, so join us after the jump for a look at all the UFC 171 betting lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and our time-tested advice.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Raquel Pennington (+220) vs. Jessica Andrade (-280)

Andrade as a -280 favorite with a loss to Liz Carmouche and a decision win against 36 year old veteran Rosi Sexton inside the Octagon is rather steep. Jessica may be the better fighter on paper, but it is hard to gauge the improvements made by Raquel since her decision victory over Roxanne Modafferi. Dana had implored Raquel to “let your hands go” during the TUF 18 season, seemingly underlining unrealised potential in the 25 year old Colorado Springs native. Will Raquel come out striking and use her size advantage to control Jessica, or will Andrade find a way to push the ground attack and control the fight on the mat? Too hard to tell from here, best to pass over and simply enjoy.

The Good Dogs:

Dennis Bermudez (-225) vs. Jimy Hettes (+175)

In his last three outings, Bermudez has won via back-to-back split decisions and a unanimous decision, respectively, yet still comes in as a better than 2 to 1 favorite to walk away with a win against grappling ace Jimy Hettes. Looking at the three straight first round losses via submission on Bermudez’s record, coupled with Jimy’s 10 submission victories in 12 career fights, the scales begin to lead towards an upset victory for Hettes. Bermudez holds a decided striking advantage and most likely will try to keep this fight standing, but as seen in the past, Bermudez may over commit and follow the fight to the ground where he falls into Jimy’s wheelhouse.

On the side of Hettes, if he can emulate his fight with Nam Phan and stick to Bermudez, there is a great chance that as the fight goes on Hettes finds a way to either submit Dennis or steal enough rounds to pull off a decision victory here.

Hector Lombard (-220) vs. Jake Shields (+180)

This will be Jake’s third consecutive outing as the underdog and for the third straight time he will look to reward those who believe he can pull off the upset win. Lombard is most likely being looked at through the Jake Ellenberger lens, meaning he is favored to stop Shields takedowns early and use his decided striking advantage to put the former Strikeforce champion away. While Lombard has returned to welterweight and still has plenty of punching power, what is less clear is whether or not he still has sufficient strength in the grappling department to deal with a guy like Shields if the fight does go to the ground.

Demian Maia found out the hard way that Shields has an incredible ground game and in the event this fight does go to the ground, this is where Jake can cash big.

Myles Jury (-185) vs. Diego Sanchez (+160)

Too hard to pass over Sanchez as an underdog against a rising undefeated prospect who has had Michael Johnson as his toughest test thus far inside the Octagon. Diego is notoriously hard to finish and tends to catch the eye of the judges more often than not with his unique style of fighting, which is something Jury has yet to experience inside the Octagon. Jury may very well find his range and keep Diego at bay, but the high probability this fight goes to decision will give Diego the time to perhaps get inside and pressure Jury in a way that could force the usual wild brawl Sanchez tends to thrive in.

Johny Hendricks (-380) vs. Robbie Lawler (+315)

Johny is the right favorite but is way overpriced when looking into this fight and where the potential advantages are for Robbie Lawler. Both men are southpaws and it is Lawler who is 2” taller and will have a 3” reach advantage, possibly gaining a small edge in the stand up department. This seemingly small edge is only amplified when underlining how heavy both fighter’s hands are coupled with their willingness to keep the fight standing. Johny will most likely be the one to initiate the takedown, but Lawler showed in his bout with Koscheck that he can effectively use his butterfly guard to get back up and fight where he is strongest.

Robbie’s record at Welterweight is 11-2, with one loss coming via injury (hip dislocation) to Pete Spratt and of course the only KO loss of his career to Nick Diaz, not once has he been a victim of being out grappled like he was at 185lbs. With this in mind, if the fight stays standing, taking Robbie at 3 times your bet could be the best good dog pick of 2014.

Other Main Card Bouts:

Ovince St-Preux (-365) vs. Nikita Krylov (+305)

Krylov certainly looked night and day from his debut against Soa Palelei with a stunning KO victory over Walt Harris in his last outing in the Octagon. Krylov will be making his Light Heavyweight debut this time around and it will be as a replacement for Thiago Silva (who’s kind of a shitty person and is no longer welcome in the UFC) on short notice. OSP has the benefit of a full camp and should be able to use some GnP to fend off the submission specialist Nikita while maintaining control on top either pulling off the decision victory or even stopping Krylov due to strikes.

Carlos Condit (-185) vs. Tyron Woodley (+160)

Tyron Woodley is looking to jump into the Welterweight top ten rankings in a big way by taking on the UFC #2 ranked Welterweight Carlos Condit. Many like Woodley to use his wrestling pedigree to exploit Condit in this fight and grind out a win, as we have seen both Condit become a victim of this as well as Woodley often come out the victor while employing this style of attack against his opponents. Condit has shown some improvements in his ground game, notably being able to stand up after being taken down by Johny Hendricks several times in their razor close affair back at UFC 158. Condit’s advantage in the stand for this fight could be the difference if he is able to use leg kicks to keep Woodley off balance and unable to drive forward for takedowns.

Condit is yet to be KO’d and Woodley is not the best striker he has faced, not by a long shot — Woodley will most likely have to stick to a one dimensional approach of going for the takedown, something Condit may be more than ready for considering his losses to GSP and Hendricks previously. Carlos is coming off an ultra impressive FOTN KO of Martin Kampmann and seems to have enough tools in his belt to ensure he is next in line for a title shot at 170lbs.

Parlay 1
Scoggins-OSP-Condit

Parlay 2
Pineda-Scoggins-Shields

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: TUF China Finale, Bellator 110 and Titan FC 27 Edition

By Seth Falvo

I have a feeling that most of you degenerate gamblers are going to take this weekend off. And hey, that’s a very logical decision. The TUF: China Finale is packed to the brim with squash matches and unknown prospects, and if you’re the type of person who doesn’t normally watch Bellator or Titan FC, it would be an incredibly stupid risk to throw money down on fighters you barely recognize.

Which is exactly what makes a “Gambling Addiction Enabler” for this weekend’s fights so appropriate. With the UFC hosting an obscure Fight Pass card — and Bellator and Titan FC featuring guys you’ve heard of but aren’t necessarily invested in — only the most hardcore MMA fans and the most hopeless gambling addicts are going to be risking their money on this weekend’s fights. If you fall into either category, we’d be letting you down if we decided not to share our rock-solid (*tries to stop laughing*) gambling advice with you.

If you’re the type of person who enjoys drinking Camo 24, betting on professional wrestling, getting a PhD in English, and other reckless, high-risk activities, then read on for my picks and suggested parlays, which are based on the odds at 5Dimes. May the winnings be yours.

The Main Events

TUF: China Finale: Dong Hyun Kim (-360) vs. John Hathaway (+300)

It’s hard to disagree with the odds here. Kim has not only faced tougher competition, but he also has the advantage of fighting on his home continent; not exactly a frivolous observation, as Kim himself would be quick to point out. A straight bet on Kim won’t yield an impressive return, but it does make for a low-risk parlay addition.

Bellator 110: Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-450) vs. Christian M’Pumbu (+360)

By Seth Falvo

I have a feeling that most of you degenerate gamblers are going to take this weekend off. And hey, that’s a very logical decision. The TUF: China Finale is packed to the brim with squash matches and unknown prospects, and if you’re the type of person who doesn’t normally watch Bellator or Titan FC, it would be an incredibly stupid risk to throw money down on fighters you barely recognize.

Which is exactly what makes a “Gambling Addiction Enabler” for this weekend’s fights so appropriate. With the UFC hosting an obscure Fight Pass card — and Bellator and Titan FC featuring guys you’ve heard of but aren’t necessarily invested in — only the most hardcore MMA fans and the most hopeless gambling addicts are going to be risking their money on this weekend’s fights. If you fall into either category, we’d be letting you down if we decided not to share our rock-solid (*tries to stop laughing*) gambling advice with you.

If you’re the type of person who enjoys drinking Camo 24, betting on professional wrestling, getting a PhD in English, and other reckless, high-risk activities, then read on for my picks and suggested parlays, which are based on the odds at 5Dimes. May the winnings be yours.

The Main Events

TUF: China Finale: Dong Hyun Kim (-360) vs. John Hathaway (+300)

It’s hard to disagree with the odds here. Kim has not only faced tougher competition, but he also has the advantage of fighting on his home continent; not exactly a frivolous observation, as Kim himself would be quick to point out. A straight bet on Kim won’t yield an impressive return, but it does make for a low-risk parlay addition.

Bellator 110: Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-450) vs. Christian M’Pumbu (+360)

On paper, Christian M’Pumbu is exactly the type of fighter who Rampage Jackson should have zero problems with — he’s as pure of a kickboxer as you’ll find in a major MMA promotion, who would rather stand and trade haymakers than clinch against the cage. Yet after watching Jackson’s promotional debut against Joey Beltran, Rampage at -450 is not even remotely worth the risk of an upset. Especially when you consider that Bellator is sort-of hoping for Rampage vs. King Mo in the next round of this tournament, which obviously means that at least one of them is destined to lose on Friday night. M’Pumbu at anything over +450 would be worth a $5 for shiggles, but at +360? Move along, people; this fight is in Stay the Hell Away From territory.

Titan FC 27: Mike Ricci (-725) vs. Jorge Gurgel (+470)

Unfortunately, there is no “This Fight Will Make Everyone Feel Very Empty Inside” prop.

Also Worth Consideration

TUF: China Finale: Shawn Jordan (-135) vs. Matt Mitrione (-105)

I’m surprised that Shawn Jordan isn’t a bigger favorite. Jordan has the better record, the more impressive resume, and better wrestling; he should have zero problems with Matt Mitrione. Honestly, the only advantage that I’m giving to Mitrione is that his body isn’t covered in blatant scratch worthy of a spot on our ugliest tattoos in MMA list. Seriously, person who drew Jordan’s chest/shoulder piece, what the hell?

TUF: China Finale: Hatsu Hioki (-400) vs. Ivan Menjivar (+280)
Bellator 110: Mike Richman (-250) vs. Des Green (+190)
Bellator 110: Will Martinez (+280) vs. Goiti Yamauchi (-370)
Titan FC 27: Bryan Goldsby (+240) vs. Kevin Croom (-300)

And now we’re entering the squash match portion of the upcoming bouts. Don’t be fooled by Hatsu Hioki’s three-fight losing streak — he has looked unstoppable on Asian soil. Add on that this fight is a must-win for him, and there’s no way that his hand isn’t getting raised on Friday. Over in Bellator, Mike Richman should prove too experienced and well-rounded for Team Bombsquad product Des Green. Goiti Yamauchi is a twenty-one year old grappling ace with thirteen of his sixteen career victories coming via submission — eleven of which coming in the first round — fighting an 8-2 curtain-jerker. The prop that this fight will last less than 1.5 rounds is definitely worth exploring here. Meanwhile, in Titan FC, Kevin “The Hard-Hitting Hillbilly” [Author Note: Not sure if nickname is awesome or terrible] Croom is not only also a fantastic grappler, but he also benefits from fighting a 17-15 journeyman with seven career submission losses. Easy call.

The Good Dogs

TUF: China Finale: Nam Phan (-185) vs. Vaughan Lee (+145)

Both Phan and Lee are coming off of losses, but Phan is favored here because he’s an Asian (sort-of) fighting in Asia, I guess. Except, you know, Phan grew up in California, so there is no “fighting on his home continent” advantage here, and Lee has proven that he can win in Asia at this level with his victory over Kid Yamamoto at UFC 144. At +145, a straight bet won’t provide a ton of bang for your buck, but Lee makes for a relatively low risk parlay addition.

Bellator 110: Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal (-245) vs. Mikhail Zayats (+185)
Bellator 110: Diego Nunes (-375) vs. Matt Bessette (+285)

“Hey, I’ve actually heard of this guy, so he will win” isn’t exactly a smart betting strategy. This is especially true with Mikhail Zayats; he has won eight of his last ten fights — including a first-round TKO over Babalu — and those two losses come to Emanuel Newton and Vinny Magalhaes. Bessette’s resume is slightly less impressive, but he’s an attractive pick simply due to how inconsistent Diego Nunes has looked recently. Nunes has lost three of his last four fights, and is coming off of a quick, nasty knockout loss to Patricio Pitbull at Bellator 99. Bessette isn’t worth a spot in your parlay, but a straight bet on him is far from the worst way you could spend $5 this weekend.

Stay the Hell Away From

Titan FC 27: Matt Riddle (-180) vs. Michael Kuiper (+150)

Remember our “Who Is the Biggest Waste of Potential in MMA History” roundtable? You can pretty much copy and paste what ReX13 wrote about BJ Penn here for my analysis of this fight. On paper, yes, this is Riddle’s fight to lose. But after a year that has consisted of retirement, unretirement, pulling out of fights, and getting fired from Bellator for Riddle, betting on “Deep Waters” this Friday is just as risky as betting on a post-Sonnen Paulo Filho: He may fight like the elite fighter he is, or he may put in the bare minimum effort needed to collect his paycheck, or he may decide to pull out of the fight at the last minute because, you know, whatever. The bottom line here is that this fight is a crap shoot, and neither fighter offers an attractive enough return on your investment to justify the risk. Just say no.

Suggested Stakes for a $50 Wager

The Ultra-Conservative Approach:

$25 on Kim+Hioki+Ricci parlay (returns $20.44)
$20 on Richman+Yamauchi parlay (returns $15.57)
$5 on Shawn Jordan (returns $3.70)

In the likely event that all three bets pay off, you’ll earn a total of $39.71 for your efforts.

The Live Dangerously Approach:

$20 on Richman+Yamauchi+Jordan parlay (returns $41.91)
$20 on Kim+Zayats parlay (returns $53.29)
$5 on Matt Bessette (returns $14.25)
$5 on Croom+Lee parlay (returns $11.33)

I once read that the biggest mistake that novice gamblers make is betting not to lose; whether that’s a quote from a book about Nick the Greek or something I read off of the bathroom wall at a gas station casino is irrelevant. With a little luck, this parlay returns $120.78.

The “Whatever, It’s Mardi Gras #YOLO” Approach:

$25 on Hathaway+Bessette+Gurgel (returns $2,169.50)
$20 on Lee+Zayats (returns $119.65)
$5 on Matt Riddle (returns $2.78)

Semi-Related: It’s common for gambling addicts to find the rush of losing and trying to win back their losses more addictive than actually winning. I figured that was an appropriate disclaimer to use before casually pointing out that this strategy will return $2,291.93. Have a nice day.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 170: Rousey vs. McMann’ Edition


(Damn, Vin Diesel’s acting lessons have clearly taken Rousey’s mean-mug to a WHOLE. NOTHA. LEVEL..)

By Dan George 

Let us all gather round, hold hands, and pray. Pray that this weekend’s UFC 170 manages to rise above the level of the decision-filled snoozefests that were UFC 169 and Fight Night 36. Of course, with a main event featuring Ronda Rousey, whose “kill ratio” is 100% (as Don Frye would put it if he gave two shits about this fight), and a co-main event featuring the biggest squash match of the year (so far), it looks like UFC 170 will rise to the level of those 10 decision events at the very minimum. I’m guessing that sound I just heard was all of you reaching into your wallets for $50.

Regardless of whether or not UFC 170 is able to deliver from an action standpoint, it has plenty of opportunities to deliver from a gambler’s standpoint, so join us after the jump for some sexy gambling lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and even sexier advice. You know, because women.

The Props:

Josh Sampo (+145) vs. Zach Makovsky (-165)

Makovsky is a perfect 3-0 since dropping down to flyweight and looked outstanding in his upset victory of Scott Jorgensen in his UFC debut at UFC on Fox 9. Sampo is looking to extend his 5 fight winning streak after an equally impressive debut RNC submission win over Ryan Benoit at the TUF 18 finale. The +105 prop that he wins via decision is a nice plus money option, as “Fun Size” should be able to use his NCAA division 1 wrestling to nullify Sampo’s submission threat on the ground while getting the better of the exchanges in the stand up department. Makovsky makes the parlay at a bargain -165 to win outright.


(Damn, Vin Diesel’s acting lessons have clearly taken Rousey’s mean-mug to a WHOLE. NOTHA. LEVEL..)

By Dan George 

Let us all gather round, hold hands, and pray. Pray that this weekend’s UFC 170 manages to rise above the level of the decision-filled snoozefests that were UFC 169 and Fight Night 36. Of course, with a main event featuring Ronda Rousey, whose “kill ratio” is 100% (as Don Frye would put it if he gave two shits about this fight), and a co-main event featuring the biggest squash match of the year (so far), it looks like UFC 170 will rise to the level of those 10 decision events at the very minimum. I’m guessing that sound I just heard was all of you reaching into your wallets for $50.

Regardless of whether or not UFC 170 is able to deliver from an action standpoint, it has plenty of opportunities to deliver from a gambler’s standpoint, so join us after the jump for some sexy gambling lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and even sexier advice. You know, because women.

The Props:

Josh Sampo (+145) vs. Zach Makovsky (-165)

Makovsky is a perfect 3-0 since dropping down to flyweight and looked outstanding in his upset victory of Scott Jorgensen in his UFC debut at UFC on Fox 9. Sampo is looking to extend his 5 fight winning streak after an equally impressive debut RNC submission win over Ryan Benoit at the TUF 18 finale. The +105 prop that he wins via decision is a nice plus money option, as “Fun Size” should be able to use his NCAA division 1 wrestling to nullify Sampo’s submission threat on the ground while getting the better of the exchanges in the stand up department. Makovsky makes the parlay at a bargain -165 to win outright.

Alexis Davis (+150) vs. Jessica Eye (-130)

The only thing more controversial than Eye’s decision win over Kaufman was the consequential fall out and NC ruling from the TDLR a few weeks ago. Hopefully, Jessica will not be overly affected by the recent controversy that has surrounded her, but it may be a small difference maker in a razor sharp fight that will be close and most likely decided by the judge’s cards. +170 for Alexis Davis to win by decision is a solid risk if you believe that Eye will be good enough not to be submitted, but not good enough to control where this fight takes place.

Aljamain Sterling (-240) vs. Cody Gibson (+200)

With a perfect 8-0 record, Serra Longo Fight Team submission specialist Aljamain Sterling is a +215 prop to beat Cody Gibson inside the distance. Sterling has won his last three fights via RNC while 2 of Gibson’s 3 career losses have come via submission. If he cannot keep this fight standing, that’s easy money.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Mike Pyle (-185) vs. T.J. Waldburger (+160)

“Quicksand” is a 2 to 1 favorite to avoid the submission game of T.J. Walburger, who comes in as the +160 underdog. All signs point towards Pyle being the right favorite; prior to his 30 second sparring session gone wrong with Matt Brown at UFN 26, he was riding a four fight win streak and the last time he lost by submission was close to five years ago. With 3 of his 4 UFC wins coming via submission, T.J. Waldburger has found success when he hits the mat with his opponent, something Pyle will most likely participate in here. With the likelihood this fight goes to the ground, Waldburger is fighting where he is strongest while Pyle plays with fire and hopes not to get burned. Pyle if you must, but probably a better idea to skip and simply enjoy this one.

Main Card bouts:

Stephen Thompson (-135) vs. Robert Whittaker (+115)

Stephen is the better striker on paper and Whittaker prefers to stand with his opponents in the cage. Thompson should be able to land first from and begin to find his range as the fight progresses. Whittaker may eventually have to work at taking “Wonderboy” down if the first round does not go well on the feet, which may lead to Thompson creating distance and fighting off his back foot on the way to the scorecards. Thompson to win.

Demian Maia (+240) vs. Rory Macdonald (-280)

Not sure that anyone is running to the window to lay -280 on Rory MacDonald to beat Demian Maia given the 2013 that he had. Rory has the tools to best Maia on the feet, but Demian will surely be looking to take this fight down to the ground right away. This leads to the question of whether or not Rory can get back to his feet or whether or not he will look like Jon Fitch did against Maia. Rory may opt to use the jab he found success with against strong grapplers to keep Maia at bay and outpoint the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace until a window opens for him to end the fight (if the window presents itself…cough.. Jake Ellenberger) or simply ride out another decision victory. Rory to win.

Daniel Cormier (-1300) vs. Patrick Cummins (+850)

-1300 means there is no point trying to make much profit off picking Cormier to win against the 4-0 short notice replacement Patrick Cummins here. Did Cummins really school Cormier in wrestling practice so bad that it led Daniel to break down in tears? Or is Cummins attempting to get inside Cormier’s head in hopes of pulling off the upset of the year this Saturday night? Well we know for sure that Pat…sorry… Patrick has upset Cormier, but from the looks of it, this may work against him once the cage door closes. Cormier to win via hulk smash is not available but highly likely nonetheless. Cormier to win.

Put 10 dollars on Cummins to win. Just because.

Ronda Rousey (-460) vs. Sara McMann (+365)

The line suggests otherwise, but this fight has to be the closest fight on the cards based on the pedigree of both fighters alone. McMann is a silver medalist in wrestling, Rousey a bronze medalist in Judo, and both are undefeated thus far in their respective careers. Ronda has given up her back to far lesser a grappler than McMann, but always ends up in the same position by the end of the fight, forcing the tap from by applying her signature armbar submission. McMann, on the other hand, has either finished her opponent on the ground or given the audience a 15 minute wrestling clinic by controlling her opponent en route to a decision victory.

While many expect to see Ronda Rousey’s striking game to be put on display, it can be argued that under the bright lights and with the gold on the line, these ladies will want to go with what brought them to the dance. The fight boils down to what happens when McMann initiates the first takedown and whether or not Ronda counters effectively with one of those beautifully timed/executed Judo throws which finds her on top of McMann in control on the ground. The possibilities when these two hit the mat are endless and this contest will offer the highest caliber grappling the UFC audience has ever seen. Rousey to win.

Parlay 1
Makovsky-Koch

Parlay 2
Sterling-Assuncao

Props
Makovsky +105 to win by decision
Davis +170 to win by decision
Sterling +215 to win inside the distance

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 169: Barao vs. Faber II Edition’


(“It’s OK Eddie, you’re still the king of the invisible motorcycle dance.” Photo via Getty) 

By Dan George

The UFC returns to lovely…Newark, New Jersey this weekend with UFC 169, featuring a pair of lighter weight title fights and what *should* be a loser-leaves-town fight between Alistair Overeem and Frank Mir that you know who seems unwilling to commit to. There’s also a few badass Russians, a hard-hitting Canadian, and a surging TUF alum thrown in for good measure, so it should be a hell of a card.

And with each UFC pay-per-view comes the p4p best gambling advice on the internet: The Gambling Addiction Enabler. So join us below as we dissect UFC 169 and determine where the best opportunities to make some serious bank lie, because let’s be honest, we’ve all got child support payments to make. What? You don’t have any illegitimate children? I feel like I don’t even know you guys anymore.

The Good Dogs:

John Makdessi (-165) vs. Alan Patrick (+145)

At -165, Makdessi earns the right to be the favorite against undefeated Alan Patrick, who will be looking to make it 2-0 in the UFC. Both fighters are coming off first round knockout wins and while Makdessi has earned his stripes against better competition, it is hard to ignore “Nuguette’s” (?) winning formula thus far in his career. There is no denying that Makdessi is the more talented striker, but Patrick mixes up his striking with takedowns very well which may present problems for Makdessi if he is unable to stop the larger man from taking him down early and often. Against Hallman, “The Bull” showed that his Achilles heel is the ground game and this is where Patrick at +145 is worth some consideration based on what we have seen from him throughout his career.


(“It’s OK Eddie, you’re still the king of the invisible motorcycle dance.” Photo via Getty) 

By Dan George

The UFC returns to lovely…Newark, New Jersey this weekend with UFC 169, featuring a pair of lighter weight title fights and what *should* be a loser-leaves-town fight between Alistair Overeem and Frank Mir that you know who seems unwilling to commit to. There’s also a few badass Russians, a hard-hitting Canadian, and a surging TUF alum thrown in for good measure, so it should be a hell of a card.

And with each UFC pay-per-view comes the p4p best gambling advice on the internet: The Gambling Addiction Enabler. So join us below as we dissect UFC 169 and determine where the best opportunities to make some serious bank lie, because let’s be honest, we’ve all got child support payments to make. What? You don’t have any illegitimate children? I feel like I don’t even know you guys anymore.

The Good Dogs:

John Makdessi (-165) vs. Alan Patrick (+145)

At -165, Makdessi earns the right to be the favorite against undefeated Alan Patrick, who will be looking to make it 2-0 in the UFC. Both fighters are coming off first round knockout wins and while Makdessi has earned his stripes against better competition, it is hard to ignore “Nuguette’s” (?) winning formula thus far in his career. There is no denying that Makdessi is the more talented striker, but Patrick mixes up his striking with takedowns very well which may present problems for Makdessi if he is unable to stop the larger man from taking him down early and often. Against Hallman, “The Bull” showed that his Achilles heel is the ground game and this is where Patrick at +145 is worth some consideration based on what we have seen from him throughout his career.

Andy Enz (+160) vs. Clint Hester (-185)

Hester is a very solid stand up fighter coming in as the -200ish favorite against a relatively unknown Andy Enz, who will bring a perfect 7-0 record (5 via submission) into his Octagon debut. Training out of Gracie Barra Alaska, the 22 year old Enz has earned his nickname “Tank Mode” with a knack for his heavy grappling prowess, something Hester (9-3) may have trouble with if he cannot keep the fight standing. If Andy can take Hester down, the scales tip heavily towards Enz finding a way to finish the fight, but if Hester can keep the fight standing, all signs towards Clint picking up his third straight stoppage victory in the UFC. The undefeated prospect gets the finish over Hester, who has dropped 2 out of his 3 professional losses by submission.

Chris Cariaso (-145) vs. Danny Martinez (+125)

-145 favorite Chris Cariaso will look to bring his UFC flyweight record above .500 against WEC veteran Danny Martinez. Despite being his first bout in the UFC, Martinez has gone to the score cards with some of the highest caliber fighters in his weight class since he turned pro in 2006, but recently suffered a suprising loss to David Grant at the TUF eliminations for Team Rousey vs Team Tate. The prop that Cariaso wins by decision should pay out roughly 2 to 1 and is a respectable choice when noting Cariaso has 4 of his 5 UFC wins by decision.

Jamie Varner (-140) vs. Abel Trujillo (+120)

Abel Trujillo is a small underdog at +120, but in the first tough test of his career, he came up short against The Eagle in which could be described as a veritable sambo clinic. Recognizing that Varner has fought higher level competition as of late and has the experience advantage suggests taking him as a favorite in the fight. The +230 prop that Varner wins this fight by decision may be a fruitful option in the plus money category as Trujillo has not been stopped since 2011.

Frank Mir (+280) vs. Alistair Overeem (-340)

Frank Mir at +280 is approaching the same price he was valued at against JDS and Daniel Cormier. Alistair Overeem has changed camps three times in as many fights and is now fighting for his job against arguably his toughest test in the UFC. OK, not arguably…but still a very live dog. The one major caveat that pops up can be found in Alistair’s ultra dangerous clinch game, which has spelled the death of Mir in his losses to Shane Carwin and Josh Barnett. Here’s to Frank keeping his back off the cage and hands by his head until Overeem gases.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Nick Catone (+160) vs. Tom Watson (-185)

Watson came out of the gate early this week at -200 territory which has quickly shifted towards -185 in the past 48hrs. Nick Catone will be returning to his familiar stomping grounds (as well as the middleweight division) as the +160 underdog. “The Jersey Devil” has only lost once in eight contests inside New Jersey state lines and has the tools in the grappling department to give Watson trouble here. If Catone can close the distance on Watson, the only question that remains is whether or not Nick can get the takedown. If Nick cannot take Watson down, the likelihood of Watson ending this fight inside the distance is strong (3 of Catone’s 4 losses have come inside the distance). Really hard to imagine Catone is as good a grappler as Thales Leites, but he may not have to be to still find his way to a decision victory. Simply too hard to predict this one.

John Lineker (+125) vs Ali Bagautinov (-145)

Certainly a FOTN selection here as both men are known to produce fireworks inside the Octagon. The most interesting bet would be if Lineker makes weight at this point, since the fight itself is way too volatile to try a predict a winner when looking at how readily these two plant feet and launch bombs. The +105 prop that this fight goes the distance is not as interesting as just sitting back and enjoying the shootout between these two prospects.

The Co-Mains:

Jose Aldo (-650) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+475)

Until Aldo looks to be in trouble in the Octagon, it will be business as usual for the champion, who will look to use his superior Muay Thai in combination with his legendary takedown defense to defeat his Lamas. “The Bully” poses the threat to take Aldo down and control the fight on the ground, but it is merely a threat that Aldo has faced and effectively overcome in the past. The prop of -121 that this fight starts round 3 may be a chance to shorten the price of wagering on this fight when acknowledging Aldo has gone past 3 rounds in his past two outings.

Renan Barao (-270) vs. Urijah Faber (+230)

Faber has been 0-5 in fights where Zuffa gold is on the line, always rebounding and seemingly coming back better than ever. Urijah is sure to bring his most exciting brand of fighting into his rematch with Barao, who effectively out struck Faber and limited his takedown ability by punishing the California Kid’s lead leg at UFC 149.

Win or lose, it is hard to argue that Urijah Faber has had a very special 2013 and has proven that no matter what weight class he is in, he can still find a way to title contention. Barao most likely picks up right where he left off in the first fight with Faber and continues his run of dominance at the UFC Bantamweight champion.

Parlay 1

Umalatov-Magomedov-Barao

Parlay 2

Cariaso-Iaquinta-Enz-Barao

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 168: Silva vs. Weidman II’ Edition

(Silva and Weidman talk us through their first fight. The words “lucky” and “bullshit” are thrown around rather liberally.)

By Dan George

I trust you all had a Merry Christmas, Nation, but now it’s time to get back to business. This Saturday, quite possibly the biggest card in the history of the UFC is going down in Vegas when middleweight champion Chris Weidman (still crazy to type) attempts to become the first man to ever go 2-0 against Anderson Silva at UFC 168.

OK, so maybe it’s not the biggest (or best) card in UFC History, but the fact that those of us who plan on purchasing the card will start off an additional five dollars in the hole means that I’ve got my word cut out for me. Join me below for the pound-for-pound best gambling advice in all the Interwebz and maybe, just maybe, we will all kick off the New Year with a little extra cash in our pocket. All gambling lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Chris Leben (+255) vs. Uriah Hall (-310)

While not as heavy a favorite as in the past, Uriah Hall has simply not shown the brilliance we saw from him while in the TUF house to warrant laying -300ish on this fight. On the other side of the spectrum you have Chris Leben, who will be looking to avoid a fourth straight loss inside the octagon and the inevitable pink slip that comes along with it. This fight feels like a loser-leaves-town match and Uriah should be able to use his angles and speed to pick Leben apart on the feet, but if he cannot finish Leben early, this fight may get ugly and this is where Leben generally shines. If you cannot resist, the -120 prop that this fight does not go past 2.5 rounds may be worth a look.


(Silva and Weidman talk us through their first fight. The words “lucky” and “bullshit” are thrown around rather liberally.)

By Dan George

I trust you all had a Merry Christmas, Nation, but now it’s time to get back to business. This Saturday, quite possibly the biggest card in the history of the UFC is going down in Vegas when middleweight champion Chris Weidman (still crazy to type) attempts to become the first man to ever go 2-0 against Anderson Silva at UFC 168.

OK, so maybe it’s not the biggest (or best) card in UFC History, but the fact that those of us who plan on purchasing the card will start off an additional five dollars in the hole means that I’ve got my word cut out for me. Join me below for the pound-for-pound best gambling advice in all the Interwebz and maybe, just maybe, we will all kick off the New Year with a little extra cash in our pocket. All gambling lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Chris Leben (+255) vs. Uriah Hall (-310)

While not as heavy a favorite as in the past, Uriah Hall has simply not shown the brilliance we saw from him while in the TUF house to warrant laying -300ish on this fight. On the other side of the spectrum you have Chris Leben, who will be looking to avoid a fourth straight loss inside the octagon and the inevitable pink slip that comes along with it. This fight feels like a loser-leaves-town match and Uriah should be able to use his angles and speed to pick Leben apart on the feet, but if he cannot finish Leben early, this fight may get ugly and this is where Leben generally shines. If you cannot resist, the -120 prop that this fight does not go past 2.5 rounds may be worth a look.

The Good Dogs:

John Howard (+130) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (-150)

At +130, John Howard is a solid underdog pick in a fight that will most likely be won by the stronger grappler. Siyar is most likely the better striker, but Howard is well versed enough in the stand up game to avoid anything catastrophic like Paulo Thiago experienced at UFC on FUEL 2 and should be able to find a way to get Bahadurzada against the cage early and often in this fight. Siyar has 6 finishes in his last 8 fights, 5 of which came in the first round, while Howard has not been stopped in the first round of a fight since 2007. If Howard is able to get this fight into the 2nd and 3rd rounds, he most likely will do so by nullifying Siyar’s offense by mixing up striking with takedowns which may give him the nod from the judges. Howard to win.

William Macario (+145) vs. Bobby Voelker (-160)

Currently 0-2 in the octagon, Voelker has shown an ability to take punishment more than deliver punishment as of late. If he does not get off to a good start against Macario, he may very well be looking at a third consecutive loss in the UFC. The major caveat is that Macario seemed to gas in his last fight with Leonardo Santos and Voelker’s ability to take a beating and keep ticking may offer some dramatic moments if this fight gets into the 3rd round. That said, I like Macario to win here via a violent flurry early in the first round.

Jim Miller (-365) vs. Fabricio Camoes (+305)

At -350 or higher, Jim Miller is the heavy favorite to beat Fabricio Camoes, but it is in the prop category that we find +110 for Miller to win inside the distance, which is truly the best “good dog” pick in this fight. Miller rarely plays the cautious fighter in his bouts and should look to close out this fight before the judges can get involved. Camoes is not a pushover, but has only beat Tommy Hayden inside the Octagon while Miller has consistently faced high level competition and should be able to outclass Camoes anywhere this fight takes place. +110 Miller to win inside the distance.

Dustin Poirier (-230) vs. Diego Brandao (+190)

A veritable potpourri of plus money options are offered in this fight, but the two that are most appealing would be that a) This has FOTN written all over it and b) Poirier should win by decision. Without an official line available, the return for a FOTN should be in the neighborhood of between 5 to 7 times the wager, while +165 is the current line for Poirier to take this one on the judges’ cards. Poirier will have the height and reach advantage here while Brandao has yet to be finished in the UFC, which all points towards an exciting fight that may very well go the entire 15 minutes. Diego is also training with the last man to beat Poirier (Cub Swanson) at Jackson’s MMA and he will surely have “The Diamond” scouted heading into this tilt. Poirier +165 by decision and FOTN prop.

Other Main Card Bouts:

Josh Barnett (-190) vs. Travis Browne (+165)

Barnett is currently hovering around -200 in a fight that will be determined by whether or not Barnett can get things to the mat. Browne has not been threatened with a takedown-centric approach by any of his opponents in the UFC, which should make this the toughest test of his career. Without having seen Browne face this challenge consistently throughout a fight, it is difficult to gauge whether or not he will be able to stop one of the best grapplers the HW division has to offer. Barnett should be able to put Browne on his back in this fight and find a way to either win by submission or on the scorecards. Barnett to win.

Ronda Rousey (-900) vs. Miesha Tate (+700)

Miesha has gone on record stating that she will shoot herself in the face if she is sarmbarred by Rousey again. Rousey is between -700 to -900 at the various sports books and although she has finished all of her MMA fights inside the first round, there may be an opportunity to play the prop that this fight starts round 2 at -130. Tate surely learned something from the first fight and hopefully will be able to avoid the ground game for the first five minutes. Rousey showed in her fight with Liz Carmouche that (despite giving up her back) once engaged in a grappling contest, the armbar is all but a formality. While Tate is a solid striker, her grappling, much like any woman in the UFC, is not on Rousey’s level and Ronda will surely find a way to exploit this fact to retain her title. I pray that she does not intend to actually follow through on this. Rousey to win. UH-DUH.

Chris Weidman (+135) vs. Anderson Silva (-155)

The line has not moved very much since this rematch was announced. Weidman showed that “The Spider’s” antics had no effect on him and that he can outduel Silva on the ground and on the feet at less than 100% coming off a one year layoff. Why then is Silva considered the favorite after losing the first contest? Who believes that Silva has an advantage on the ground in this fight? Both questions should tip the scales in Weidman’s favor, but clearly the odds are being generated on the very same thing that cost Silva his title. The odds here suggest that Silva will be able to regain his title by out striking Weidman, and despite being KO’d in the second round at UFC 162, it seemed rather obvious that Silva had begun to connect with Weidman’s lead leg, take away the takedown threat, and take over control of the contest on the feet. Until he got too cocky, that is.

However, Weidman not only won the first fight clearly, he also won the first round very convincingly by exposing Silva’s struggles with strong grapplers. Weidman also noted that he saw Silva’s eyes roll back in his head in the first round while he delivered ground and pound to the former champ. Weidman has the tools to create this type of environment again for Silva and may be able to connect enough times to stop Silva on the ground, which is perceived to be the most probable avenue to victory for Chris in this bout. Weidman clearly can win this fight in more areas than Silva, but again, the oddsmakers have Silva pinned as the favorite for the brief moments in the second round where Silva showed how dominant he can be with his striking. Weidman has had many knee surgeries and it seemed that he began laboring in the second round when Silva began connecting. To his credit, Weidman was able to push through this and become the new champion, but his win was at least partially due to an opponent who took his foot off the gas pedal.

This time around, Silva will most likely stay focused on keeping the fight standing and attacking Weidman’s lead leg with punishing kicks, which may limit the champ’s ability to score the takedown. If Silva is able to avoid the takedown consistently and cut out the shenanigans, he should create the type of fight that will result in him regaining his title. If Weidman can take Silva down early and punish him enough, he may finish the former champ inside the first round. The fight should be a pick’em as both fighters have shown, however briefly, the ability to control their opponent in the first bout. Silva to win inside the distance, possibly 3rd round TKO stoppage.

Parlay 1
Siver-Barnett

Parlay 2
Poirier-Miller

Parlay 3
Barnett-Macario

Happy Holidays and all the best in 2014, CP Nation.