UFC 141 Predictions

Main card for Lesnar vs Overeem UFC 141 Heavyweight bout: Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem First thoughts are Overeem – EASILY. Lesnar has shown to have a rather large glass jaw when it comes to heavyweight punchers – but who doesn’t really? One clip from anyone that big and its over. Lesnar’s best chance is

Main card for Lesnar vs Overeem UFC 141

Heavyweight bout: Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem

First thoughts are Overeem – EASILY. Lesnar has shown to have a rather large glass jaw when it comes to heavyweight punchers – but who doesn’t really? One clip from anyone that big and its over. Lesnar’s best chance is obviously getting this fight to the ground. Utilize the wrestling skills to tire Overeem out. The problem is Overeem’s take down defense is better than decent as it was displayed against Fabricio Werdum, Lesnar would be a fool to stand with Overeem and there is no chance that strategy is going to happen. Lesnar gets Overeem to the ground and this fight could go Lesnar’s way really quick, but Lesnar better not go for the double as Alistair has a ridiculously strong guillotine. Lesnar needs to take single shots and drag Overeem down or trip him.

Once in full or half guard, Brock on top is a problem for any heavyweight.

I think you have to decide will Overeem catch Lesnar coming in, or will Lesnar be able to drag Overeem down and keep him there for each round – maybe even getting the TKO.

5 rounds gives Overeem ample opportunity, in his UFC debut, to catch Lesnar somewhere with a K-1 level strike via elbow against the cage maybe? That cracks the glass of Lesnar.

My prediction Round 2 TKO Overeem. As long as the odds don’t go Jon Jones or Anderson Silvaish.

Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz vs Donald Cerrone

Love the Diaz brothers, but in this one I think Cerrone brings too much firepower and speed. If this fight goes to the ground its going to look like an instructional video. Cerrone.

Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch vs Johny Hendricks

Guessing the odds are close for this fight. Fitch doesn’t posess the power that Hendricks has and I think the wrestling is probably going to be pretty nulled between the two of them. Fitch has MUCH more experience in big fights though and cardio has always been of Kenyan marathoner quality. Hendricks carries more muscle and could tire quicker giving Fitch the late rounds submission.

Light Heavyweight bout: Vladimir Matyushenko vs Alexander Gustafsson

Tough call as I want to root for the old dog The Janitor Matyushenko, but Gustafsson is one of the best unknowns in the division. Taking Gustafsson because he is great with submissions – long legs – and Vladi is going to want to take Alex to the ground. Alex is also way better on the feet. Odds probably favor Alex here, haven’t seen them yet.

Featherweight bout: Nam Phan vs Jimy Hettes

Can’t go against Nam Phan – he’s awesome.

UFC 141 Preliminary card (televised)

Featherweight bout: Ross Pearson vs Junior Assunção

Ross Pearson – too much standup skills. Assuncao though on the ground will have big advantage, but he likes to standup – weird.

Lightweight bout: Anthony Njokuani vs Danny Castillo

Njokuani

UFC 141 Preliminary card untelevised

Welterweight bout: Dong Hyun Kim vs Sean Pierson

I can’t go against Dong Hyun Kim.

Lightweight bout: Jacob Volkmann vs Efrain Escudero

Volkmann is much better than he looks. Escudero is going to come out furious though to try and get back in the UFC.

Welterweight bout: Matt Riddle vs Luis Ramos

pass

Featherweight bout: Manvel Gamburyan vs Diego Nunes

Interesting fight. Nunes is pretty damn good fighter and hasn’t really had a chance to display it since his loss to Kenny Florian. I think Nunes here will win decision. If not Manny is always good for a surprise KO victory. However, I’m going smart and picking Nunes.

UFC 137 GSP vs Condit

UFC 137 Main card Welterweight Championship: Georges St.Pierre vs Carlos Condit Condit is without a doubt the most dangerous opponent St. Pierre has fought yet, but I think GSP is going to win this fight easier than most people think. Condit is a guy who has fantastic armbars and devastating standup. What is probably going

UFC 137 Main card

Welterweight Championship: Georges St.Pierre vs Carlos Condit

Condit is without a doubt the most dangerous opponent St. Pierre has fought yet, but I think GSP is going to win this fight easier than most people think. Condit is a guy who has fantastic armbars and devastating standup. What is probably going to happen though is that GSP is going to confuse Condit with takedown fakeouts and overwhelm with a number of strikes. Then do late round takedowns and avoid the submission to secure the round. Condit wins if he gets lucky and catches GSP with punches. I don’t see a submission happening. GSP and his team are smart enough to never stay in the guard of Condit. If GSP controls from the half guard, Carlos is likely not going to get up the entire round.

GSP.

Welterweight bout: BJ Penn vs Nick Diaz

Nick Diaz. Did you think I wouldn’t pick him coming back to the UFC? Not like this fight is easy.

Heavyweight bout: Cheick Kongo vs Matt Mitrione

Mitrione is on a hot streak for sure, but I think Kongo is the more talented overall fighter. Unless it goes to the ground. Mitrione has better top control. Matt could GnP this one, while Kongo likes to win on the feet. I’m feeling Kongo here.

Heavyweight bout: Mirko Filipovi? vs Roy Nelson

I gotta go with Roy. He can take a tremendous amount of damage and put it on the other guy himself. Plus if it goes to the ground, his belly is a huge advantage.

Featherweight bout: Hatsu Hioki vs George Roop

Everytime I don’t pick this guy, he crushes his opponent. Roop.

Preliminary card (Spike TV)

Lightweight bout: Dennis Siver vs Donald Cerrone

Featherweight bout: Tyson Griffin vs Bart Palaszewski

Griffin. He will stay close to Bart all night and that is where Bart’s weaknesses are inside the grappling range. If Griffin stays on the inside he should win this one.

Preliminary card (Facebook)

Middleweight bout: Brad Tavares vs Dustin Jacoby

No pick, but Tavares has some power.

Bantamweight bout: Scott Jorgensen vs Jeff Curran

Glad to see Curran back in the UFC after a long stint outside. Jorgensen is that Guidaesque grinding wrestler and Curran has no problem fighting off his back. I can see Jorgensen taking a decision win here, but would be cool to see Curran pull off the sub.

Light Heavyweight bout: Brandon Vera vs Eliot Marshall

Vera easy.

Lightweight bout: Ramsey Nijem vs Danny Downes

Nijem

Middleweight bout: Chris Camozzi vs Francis Carmont

Camozzi seemed tough on the show.

UFC Live Cruz vs Johnson

Predictions for UFC Live Cruz vs Johnson Card Preliminary card (Facebook) Bantamweight bout: Walel Watson vs Joseph Sandoval Pass Welterweight bout: Josh Neer vs Keith Wisniewski Welcome back to the UFC Neer. Lightweight bout: Shane Roller vs TJ Grant Shane Roller Bantamweight bout: Mike Easton vs Byron Bloodworth Pass Lightweight bout: Michael Johnson vs Paul

Predictions for UFC Live Cruz vs Johnson Card

Preliminary card (Facebook)

Bantamweight bout: Walel Watson vs Joseph Sandoval

Pass

Welterweight bout: Josh Neer vs Keith Wisniewski

Welcome back to the UFC Neer.

Lightweight bout: Shane Roller vs TJ Grant

Shane Roller

Bantamweight bout: Mike Easton vs Byron Bloodworth

Pass

Lightweight bout: Michael Johnson vs Paul Sass

Johnson

Lightweight bout: Yves Edwards vs Rafaello Oliveira

I haven’t seen Oliveira, but I’ll pick Edwards in the dark here.

Main card

Lightweight bout: Matt Wiman vs Mac Danzig

This is a rematch fight. Wiman won due to early ref stoppage last fight. I like Wiman to win this one. Very tough guy to finish. Well they both are really. A very compelling fight.

Welterweight bout: Anthony Johnson vs Charlie Brenneman

Although Brenneman beat Rick Story in a major upset. I think Anthony Johnson’s power and reach will be too much. Johnson.

Heavyweight bout: Pat Barry vs Stefan Struve

Barry will probably chop the legs of Struve for three rounds and take a dec.

Bantamweight Championship: Dominick Cruz (champion) vs Demetrious Johnson

Dominick Cruz. I don’t think Johnson brings enough skill to the table to defeat Cruz. Not only is Cruz awesome on the feet, but he is equally a good wrestler.

UFC 135 Predictions

Light Heavyweight Championship: Jon Jones (c) vs Quinton Jackson Such a tough call. Jones is the guy who can lay on the strikes and if the fight gets past the second round, I think Quinton has little chance of winning. The only X-factor here is his training at the Muscle Pharm training center. Rampage is […]

Light Heavyweight Championship: Jon Jones (c) vs Quinton Jackson

Such a tough call. Jones is the guy who can lay on the strikes and if the fight gets past the second round, I think Quinton has little chance of winning. The only X-factor here is his training at the Muscle Pharm training center. Rampage is notorious for hating training camps. This time he lived at Muscle Pharm – yes slept at the gym. That has to count for something big. Jones is dynamic and fluid and inventive. I knew he would be good when I saw him on a highlight of some no name show in New Jersey. His range is going to be a problem for Quinton. Its hard for him to drop his power while punching upwards.

The obvious play here is Jones. I think he is going to win. However, at -500 and Quinton at +350 I see value in his one punch KO ability. Not only that he has the chance of a GnP win if he catches him mildly.

Welterweight bout: Matt Hughes vs Josh Koscheck

Josh Koshcheck is going to be faster and put out more output. Koshcheck is -500 though. Hughes is a good value play here imo.

Heavyweight bout: Travis Browne vs Rob Broughton

My prediction is Travis Browne continues to look good and wins this one.

Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz vs Takanori Gomi

The reach is going to be a problem with Diaz. Diaz is also going to be more aggressive. If this goes to a decision likely it goes to Diaz. The odds have Diaz favored and I think that’s fair. Would love to see Gomi recapture his former glory, but against Diaz I don’t see it happening as his range will keep that overhand out of his way.

Heavyweight bout: Ben Rothwell vs Mark Hunt

Ugh again Rothwell has disappointed me in his last two outings and he is going against Hunt here. The two of these heavyweights will stand the entire time. That favors Mark Hunt. Hunt can take the best hits out there and not go out. Rothwell is going to have to submit him to stop him, which isn’t difficult.

Hunt on the other hand carries one touch power in his hands, not likely ever seen by Rothwell. Hunt is K-1 experienced. Again underdog value here with Hunt at +240.

Preliminary Card (Spike TV)

Lightweight bout: Tony Ferguson vs Aaron Riley

Tony is favored -300 here, but I think again the underdog in this one has excellent value. Riley is a zombie and is hard to stop. Ferguson is a great striker and Riley has had problems with them before. In fact that is who have beaten him if you look at his record. If this fight turns into a grind that will play into Riley’s hands. I like Riley in the underdog position here.

Middleweight bout: Nick Ring vs Tim Boetsch

Thinking Boetsch.

Preliminary Card (Facebook)

Featherweight bout: Junior Assunção vs Eddie Yagin

Assuncao’s back in the cage again? I thought he just fought and won like 2 UFC’s ago. I got Assuncao.

Bantamweight bout: Takeya Mizugaki vs Cole Escovedo

I like Cole Escovedo here. Value play.

Light Heavyweight bout: James Te Huna vs Ricardo Romero

Ricardo Romero – hopefully his conditioning is better. I got him.

UFC 126 Undercard Predictions

Preliminary card Welterweight bout: Mike Pierce vs Kenny Robertson Mike Pierce is one of the most underknown and underappreciated welterweights. I’ve got Pierce winning this. Light Heavyweight bout: Kyle Kingsbury vs Ricardo Romero For whatever reason, Romero seems to pull out the victories at the end of the day. I lean towards Romero here in […]

Preliminary card

Welterweight bout: Mike Pierce vs Kenny Robertson

Mike Pierce is one of the most underknown and underappreciated welterweights. I’ve got Pierce winning this.

Light Heavyweight bout: Kyle Kingsbury vs Ricardo Romero

For whatever reason, Romero seems to pull out the victories at the end of the day. I lean towards Romero here in the underdog position.

Lightweight bout: Paul Taylor vs Gabe Ruediger

Taylor should eat Ruediger up as Ruediger is rather poor on his feet, but good on the ground and Taylor is excellent on the feet and mediocre on the ground. Taylor should win this fight via decision.

Preliminary card (Facebook Stream)

Bantamweight bout: Norifumi Yamamoto vs Demetrious Johnson

Kid Yamamoto against a guy I don’t know. I go with Yamamoto everytime.

Preliminary card (Spike TV)

Featherweight bout: Chad Mendes vs Michihiro Omigawa

I know Mendes is likely to win, but you can’t write off Omigawa so easily either. Mendes is -357 to Omigawa at Intertops. With crazy skewed odds I’ll go with Omigawa.

Lightweight bout: Donald Cerrone vs Paul Kelly

This is going to be a great fight. Kelly is tough as nails, Cerrone is as well. I don’t think Cerrone has faced someone as strong as Kelly yet. I think Kelly wears em down and takes the decision.

Main card

Bantamweight bout: Miguel Torres vs Antonio Banuelos

Miguell Torres is likely to win, but I’m avoiding this due to the odds being out of bounds.

Light Heavyweight bout: Jon Jones vs Ryan Bader

This is my favorite fight on the card. I got Jon Jones winning this fight. Intertops has it -357 for Jones and +240 for Bader.

Welterweight bout: Jake Ellenberger vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha

One of the best fighters to bet on is Ellenberger. However, this fight is tricky. Rocha is a absolute jiu-jitsu ace and has a ton of leg related sub victories. I’m passing here as I think Rocha could pull off an insane upset. However, the oddsmakers look like they are thinking like me and Ellenberger is not such a large favorite in this one.

Strikeforce Cyborg vs Diaz

Welterweight Championship bout: Nick Diaz (c) vs Evangelista Santos This is going to be Nick Diaz’ toughest fight since being in Strikeforce. Santos is tough everywhere. Good standup, good ground. Better than Diaz? Different. I still think Diaz is going to win this fight. Middleweight Championship bout: Ronaldo Souza (c) vs Robbie Lawler If Lawler […]

Welterweight Championship bout: Nick Diaz (c) vs Evangelista Santos

This is going to be Nick Diaz’ toughest fight since being in Strikeforce. Santos is tough everywhere. Good standup, good ground. Better than Diaz? Different. I still think Diaz is going to win this fight.

Middleweight Championship bout: Ronaldo Souza (c) vs Robbie Lawler

If Lawler connects Souza will be out. In fact, I like Lawler here.

Heavyweight bout: Herschel Walker vs Scott Carson

No pick.

Light Heavyweight bout: Roger Gracie vs Trevor Prangley

Prangley is a longtime veteran and difficult to submit. However, on this night, Gracie will submit him.
I have Gracie winning this fight inside 2.