Heading Into Dos Santos Fight, Questions Abound for Carwin

Filed under: UFCVANCOUVER, British Columbia – Even in the big media push before a fight, Shane Carwin just can’t seem to bring himself to speak in sound bytes the way some other fighters do.

Even when he gets a perfect alley-oop pass – for instance, a…

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VANCOUVER, British Columbia – Even in the big media push before a fight, Shane Carwin just can’t seem to bring himself to speak in sound bytes the way some other fighters do.

Even when he gets a perfect alley-oop pass – for instance, a question from a fan as to whether he sees his fight with Junior dos Santos at UFC 131 going more than one round – his answer comes out sounding a little more press release than pre-fight hype.

He talks about heavyweights throwing hard, yet being physically prepared to go all three rounds – it’s an answer that covers the bases and heads off criticism before it starts. It’s also a little boring.

Carwin’s trainer, Trevor Wittman, has no such problem.

“Carwin by knockout. First round,” he says before I can even ask the question.

And it’s not because he doesn’t respect dos Santos’ skills, he clarifies.

“I feel he’s the best heavyweight out there,” Wittman says, then waits a beat before adding, “Outside of Shane.”

For a soft-spoken, media-shy fighter like Carwin who prefers seclusion and a carefully crafted internet presence over getting his name in the news through interviews and public appearances, it doesn’t hurt to have a camp that can do some talking for him.

He doesn’t particularly enjoy all the fight week media attention, according to his wrestling coach, Leister Bowling, and yet he got a heaping helping of it as soon as he was slotted into the main event at UFC 131.

“I don’t think it’s a distraction for Shane; I think it pisses him off,” says Bowling. “Nothing against reporters, but he hates doing interviews. Shane told me the other day that the thing he hates most about MMA is the fame that comes with it, being at the top. He would rather no one recognize him. He would rather he just got to fight, and got paid to do it.”

Though Bowling – himself a three-time All-America wrestler at Dana College – is here to make sure Carwin’s grappling and takedown abilities don’t atrophy as he relies on his heavy hands, he’s also towing the line on the question of whether Carwin will look for the takedown in this fight.

Dos Santos says yes, but the Carwin camp says, don’t be so sure.

“I’m sure a lot of people think that. But if Shane’s going to use his wrestling in this fight, it’s going to be hand-fighting and pummeling and pushing him against the cage and beating him up there, taking his movement and speed away. It doesn’t have to be on the ground for him to do that.”

At the same time, if you’re a Division II national champion wrestler trying to convince people that you aren’t even interested in testing a boxing-based opponent’s takedown defense, that’s going to be a hard sell. Dos Santos sure isn’t buying it. He told reporters earlier in the week that he has “a feeling” Carwin will look to put him on his back.

“If I was in his shoes, I’d be thinking the same thing,” Wittman says. “He’s very confident in his boxing, but when you go out there and out-box people on a consistent basis, you get that realm of, hey, this is what I do and I’m great at it. It’s kind of like when you look at the [Anthony PettisClay Guida fight]. Pettis goes out and it looks like he’s just looking for one kick. To me, when someone gets into that, thinking he can just out-box everybody, he’s overconfident.”

For Carwin, one of the biggest questions is still his cardio. After collapsing against Brock Lesnar, then offering up an explanation about lactic acidosis that sounded to many fans like little more than a fancy way of saying ‘I gassed out,” he spent much of the early part of the week revisiting that loss and the fallout from it.

“Always in life there’s going to be haters and people who try to bring you down, and there’s going to be people who are on your team,” Carwin told reporters. “That’s just the way it’s been through sports. You have rivalries and people that try to bring you down. I’m a positive person and that’s my outlook on life. The people who are going to hate are going to hate.”

Sure, he said, there were some “definite long nights,” after the loss. Carwin admitted he was so depleted in the second round that Lesnar “probably could have got me in a kneebar if he wanted to.”

But like most fighters who suffer a big loss, he pinpointed the issue that he thought was to blame and set up about rectifying it. In Carwin’s case, it was his bulk and his diet. He changed both, slimming down and adding the expertise of nutritionist Josh Ford. Now he’s lighter and quicker, he says. But is he ready to deal with dos Santos’ speed?

Here’s where a wrestler might point out that fancy footwork isn’t so fancy once a guy’s on his back. Here’s where he might openly wonder how good dos Santos’ boxing is when he’s being suffocated against the fence – a “bully” move that Bowling says Carwin has perfected, making life “miserable” for anyone on the business end.

But Carwin? He couldn’t play it much closer to the vest. That’s why it helps to have guys like Wittman on the team. He’ll not only tell you that this one won’t last long, he’ll do it with an enthusiasm that is downright infectious.

For this particular bout, it’s practically coming out of his pores.

“If I were to sit back and say, which fight do we want if we could choose any fight? Which fight would fit us the best, stylistically? It would be this fight,” he says. “I couldn’t be any more excited.”

 

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UFC 131 Fight Card: Junior Dos Santos’ Blueprint for Victory over Shane Carwin

Talk about starting the summer off with a bang.This Saturday at UFC 131, Junior dos Santos and Shane Carwin square off to see who will get the next shot at the UFC heavyweight title.For Carwin’s part, he knows that cardio is his Achilles heel. So he cl…

Talk about starting the summer off with a bang.

This Saturday at UFC 131, Junior dos Santos and Shane Carwin square off to see who will get the next shot at the UFC heavyweight title.

For Carwin’s part, he knows that cardio is his Achilles heel. So he cleaned up his diet and will come in about 20 pounds lighter.

Presumably, however, none of that weight came out of those 5X fists. So while his cardio may have improved, Carwin’s strategy will likely be the same as it ever was: knock. him. out.

Known as a standup artist himself, dos Santos may nevertheless be looking for something else besides a toe-to-toe war. According to the Las Vegas Sun, by way of Bleacher Report, dos Santos noted, “The strategy is the only thing that’s changed…Against a guy like Brock, I would feel a little more comfortable on my feet. Fighting a guy like Shane, I’m going to have to be a little more cautious.”

So what does that mean, exactly? Are we going to see dos Santos test his jiu-jitsu? The guess here is, not quite. Rather, El Cigano’s blueprint will be to test the endurance of the new and improved—but untested—Shane Carwin.

But let’s back up for a quick second. Back to the ground game, where both men are pretty darned talented. Carwin was a D-II wrestler and a jiu-jitsu purple belt, while dos Santos is a BJJ brown belt under the Nogueira brothers. Both fighters have pulled submissions in their career, but Carwin has a 4-1 edge there. Carwin has also scored takedowns, while dos Santos’ bona fides there are minimal. 

So in summary, Carwin has a small edge on the mat, but in real time they are probably even enough to cancel each other out. So while some are calling for Carwin to take it horizontal, I imagine Dos Santos poses juuuust enough of a ground threat to keep it standing, with a takedown serving as Carwin’s escape valve.

In other words, I see this one staying upright. But I don’t see it being a hang-in-the-pocket-and-bang fest, either. And that brings us back to El Cigano’s quote from above.

To reiterate, everyone on planet Earth who cares about such information knows that Carwin’s weakness is his cardio. Everyone also knows dos Santos is relatively solid in this area. On paper, this is the biggest mismatch between the two fighters.

Why wouldn’t Dos Santos look to exploit that by moving around in the Octagon, scoring points while drawing out the contest, avoiding Carwin’s devastating power and using his razor-sharp jab from the outside to set up his finishing uppercut?

To answer my own rhetorical question, I don’t know why he wouldn’t. I guess that’s why I think he will.

Though I believe Carwin’s cardio may have improved, the onus is on him to prove that. Dos Santos would be right not to simply assume Carwin’s cardio is no longer an issue; to force him to prove it, in other words.

And while dos Santos looking for points over the highlight-reel knockout (at least initially) may not be what a lot of fans want, it is what will give him the best shot to win this fight.

Stay tuned to Bleacher Report for all things UFC 131, including the latest UFC 131 results, fight card analysis, UFC 131 news and live reaction from Vancouver.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC 131 Main Event Breakdown: Junior dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin

Filed under: UFCWhen the UFC recently lost Brock Lesnar to another bout of diverticulitis, it changed the complexion of the heavyweight division, as well as the dynamic of UFC 131. The former UFC champ may be the biggest pay-per-view draw in MMA, but h…

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When the UFC recently lost Brock Lesnar to another bout of diverticulitis, it changed the complexion of the heavyweight division, as well as the dynamic of UFC 131. The former UFC champ may be the biggest pay-per-view draw in MMA, but he also has stylistic limitations that were likely to make his proposed match with Junior dos Santos into a grinding battle of attrition rather than a fan-friendly series of explosive exchanges that could force an end in a moment’s notice.

While the change from Lesnar to Shane Carwin may impact UFC’s bottom line, it may lead to a better in-ring main event. That’s because Carwin is much more likely to engage dos Santos at his standup specialty, and because both heavyweights boast the thunderous power to finish each other.

In terms of their fighting bases, dos Santos and Carwin — both 12-1 — should not be similar fighters, dos Santos as a jiu-jitsu practitioner and Carwin as a wrestler, but like many heavyweights, both fell in love with the striking game. The heavy fists have resulted in both being regulars in highlight reels. For dos Santos, he has finished eight of his 12 wins by KO or TKO. For Carwin, it’s been seven of his 12 wins, while another opponent submitted due to strikes.

Just how much do these two like to keep it standing? According to Compustrike, in dos Santos’ six UFC fights, he’s tried just two takedowns. In Carwin’s five fights, he’s tried just three.



Because of that, it’s easy to guess that the two will spend the majority of their bout trading strikes. Or is it?

Fighters are tricky creatures. Most are smart enough to do something other than obvious, even it only means adding in some unforeseen wrinkles to cause confusion. Other times, they throw carefully constructed game plans to the wind, content in putting faith in their ability to improvise. At the highest level, though, that type of mentality has usually long since been weeded out, with experience guiding the athlete into the belief that a plan is something to be followed.

Take Carwin, for instance. While many people look at him and just see a ham-fisted monster who looks capable of knocking down a stop sign with a high five, he’s actually one of MMA’s best thinking big men. When he faced Frank Mir in March 2010, he strategized a plan to bullrush Mir into the cage, where he knew he could outmuscle him, land short punches and wear him down. As it was happening, Mir thought Carwin was shooting in for a takedown, and when he found himself with his back to the cage, mistakenly believed he had successfully stuffed Carwin.

In a brief moment of lost concentration, Mir congratulated himself on what he thought he had done. Meanwhile, Carwin was systematically moving on to the next stage of his plan, pummeling Mir in the corner. Unprepared for the wily scheme, Mir was quickly in trouble, and inside of four minutes, the fight was over.

Given dos Santos’ outstanding technical striking as well as excellent hand speed, it would not be surprising to see Carwin try this same type of approach. The best way to frustrate dos Santos would be to take away his time and space, and frustrate his striking.

It won’t be easy to do though. dos Santos has good footwork and he’s quick, so Carwin is going to have to disguise his intent before rushing into the clinch or dos Santos will be able to matador his way free.

If the fight stays standing for extended periods, the conventional wisdom seems to be that dos Santos will have the edge. Interestingly though, stats show that Carwin has out-landed opponents in the standup at a higher rate, 55.2 percent to 48.7 percent. Some of that is due to the brevity of Carwin’s fights. He’s only been out of the first round once, and fighters tend to lose accuracy in the later parts of fights as stamina wanes.

Regardless of the stats, dos Santos is a sharp puncher who finds his target, while Carwin seems to have the power that changes fights in an instant. In this case, the better defensive fighter might be the favorite. In that case, it’s clearly dos Santos, who gets hit by only 38 percent of standing punches, a very low number by any division’s standards.

If the fight goes to the ground, it’s frankly difficult to know what happens. Both men have been submitted once in their respective careers, and have spent most of their ground time on top of their opponent, looking for a TKO finish. dos Santos is a brown belt, while Carwin is a purple. For whatever it’s worth, dos Santos looks like the more fluid athlete of the two.

Much of the fight will depend on Carwin’s plan. Remember, he hasn’t fought in a year and he is at least 20 pounds lighter than he used to be. Even if he tries to grind dos Santos against the fence, he may no longer have the bulk to do it. There are a lot of questions about any fighter coming off such a lengthy layoff, and historically, fighters returning from injury after more than eight months away lose.

dos Santos has few such question marks. Remember, he was already training for Lesnar when his opponent was switched. He had months to prepare for a wrestler, training with UFC studs Mark Munoz and Phil Davis at times, so if Carwin wants to play the wrestling game, he should have a few tricks up his sleeve. But this is still dos Santos’ first time against a top wrestler, so it will be trial by fire.

Make no mistake though, this fight will have bursts of standup action, periods that will ultimately decide the bout. Carwin’s knockout power is unquestionable, but over the course of 15 minutes, it’s hard to think dos Santos’ quickness won’t pay dividends both offensively and defensively. With two big punchers, anything can happen, but I think dos Santos is on a collision course with Cain Velasquez, and he takes it by decision over a game Carwin.

 

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UFC 131 Fight Card: Power Ranking Junior Dos Santos’ UFC Victories

With scary knockout power and incredible speed in his hands, Junior Dos Santos has shown that he is one of the top heavyweights in the world during his time spent inside the UFC. No one in the division has finished as many high-caliber opponents than D…

With scary knockout power and incredible speed in his hands, Junior Dos Santos has shown that he is one of the top heavyweights in the world during his time spent inside the UFC.

No one in the division has finished as many high-caliber opponents than Dos Santos the last few years, as he’s taken out 5 of his 6 UFC opponents, and most of them didn’t even get out of the first round.

After a promised title fight with Cain Velasquez fell through, Dos Santos is in his second straight No. 1 contender’s bout, but now he has some marketability to go with his talent after appearing on the latest season of The Ultimate Fighter.

Dos Santos will take on Shane Carwin in the main event of UFC 131 this weekend.

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UFC 131 Results: The Three Ways Shane Carwin vs Junior Dos Santos Can Go Down

UFC 131 FIght Card: Shane Carwin vs. Junior dos SantosBleacher Report’s Andrew Mahlmann:The two biggest punchers in the UFC heavyweight division will be headlining UFC 131 in an exciting matchup that is guaranteed to produce fireworks.Both men produce …

UFC 131 FIght Card: Shane Carwin vs. Junior dos Santos

Bleacher Report’s Andrew Mahlmann:

The two biggest punchers in the UFC heavyweight division will be headlining UFC 131 in an exciting matchup that is guaranteed to produce fireworks.

Both men produce brutal first round KOs on the regular.

That being said, there are three distinct ways that this fight could go down based on their styles.

Stay tuned to Bleacher Report for all things UFC 131, including the latest UFC 131 results, fight card analysisUFC 131 news, and live reaction, from Vancouver.

Carwin is a plodding wrestler with unparalleled power in his fists, while Dos Santos is an agile boxer who supplements the tremendous power in his fists with excellent combos and angles.

At the highest levels of the sport, a decision is always a possibility, but I would not bet on it.

These are the three ways that I see Carwin vs Dos Santos being finished.

Click here to read the entire article.

UFC 131 Dos Santos vs. Carwin: Full Fight Card Preview, Analysis and Predictions

UFC 131 live from Rogers Arena in beautiful Vancouver, British Columbia will take place this Saturday, June 11, 2011.Headlining the evening’s event will be a UFC heavyweight clash between two of the most lethal knockout artists in the division, Junior …

UFC 131 live from Rogers Arena in beautiful Vancouver, British Columbia will take place this Saturday, June 11, 2011.

Headlining the evening’s event will be a UFC heavyweight clash between two of the most lethal knockout artists in the division, Junior dos Santos versus Shane Carwin.

Originally slated to challenge Brock Lesnar, an illness to the former heavyweight champion has sidelined the avalanche of a man and now Carwin will replace Lesnar to compete against dos Santos.

Other main card action includes the featherweight debut of Kenny Florian as he faces the highly ranked and heavily talented Diego Nunes.

In a middleweight bout, one of mixed martial arts greatest jiu-jitsu practitioners inside the Octagon, Demian Maia, will have a hard-fought war against the heavy-hitting “Filipino wrecking machine,” Mark Munoz.

Additionally, a lightweight bout between seasoned WEC veteran Donald Cerrone and newcomer to the UFC Vagner Rocha will surely entertain the fans in Canada.

Please follow along as I provide a full fight card preview, analysis, and predictions.

Enjoy the fights.

Todd Seyler

I welcome your comments.

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