MMA Stock Market — “UFC 134: Silva vs. Okami” Edition

By Jason Moles

After a spectacular night of fights at UFC 134 in Rio, we’re going to try to make sense of it with a little game called ‘Buy, Sell, or Hold’. I’ll take a fighter and either buy, sell, or hold him like a stockbroker would. (It’s kind of like the real stock market, except you won’t want to throw yourself off a building afterwards.) Take my advice and you’ll end up with a nice MMA portfolio. Without further ado…

Anderson Silva: Buy! Buy! Buy!

The Spider‘ has everything you’d want from a blue chip stock: an x-factor that makes people want to see him fight, major corporate sponsors, and hilarious commercials. Oh yeah, and his fighting isn’t that bad either. Silva’s complete and utter domination of Yushin Okami at UFC 134 just reinforces what we already knew — we are witnessing the greatest fighter of all time every time he steps inside the Octagon™.

Yushin Okami: Dump it like your autographed picture of Carrot Top.

He is currently ranked as the #3 best Middleweight and yet it seems all for naught. Okami showed up to a gunfight with a pair of flip-flops and a bag of Skittles against Silva. Despite working with the only man to dominate the champion, he never once came close to showing a spark in Brazil. I have a feeling he’ll face the same fate as Jon Fitch while his stock becomes more cursed than Monster.

By Jason Moles

After a spectacular night of fights at UFC 134 in Rio, we’re going to try to make sense of it with a little game called ‘Buy, Sell, or Hold’. I’ll take a fighter and either buy, sell, or hold him like a stockbroker would. (It’s kind of like the real stock market, except you won’t want to throw yourself off a building afterwards.) Take my advice and you’ll end up with a nice MMA portfolio. Without further ado…

Anderson Silva: Buy! Buy! Buy!

The Spider‘ has everything you’d want from a blue chip stock: an x-factor that makes people want to see him fight, major corporate sponsors, and hilarious commercials. Oh yeah, and his fighting isn’t that bad either. Silva’s complete and utter domination of Yushin Okami at UFC 134 just reinforces what we already knew — we are witnessing the greatest fighter of all time every time he steps inside the Octagon™.

Yushin Okami: Dump it like your autographed picture of Carrot Top.

He is currently ranked as the #3 best Middleweight and yet it seems all for naught. Okami showed up to a gunfight with a pair of flip-flops and a bag of Skittles against Silva. Despite working with the only man to dominate the champion, he never once came close to showing a spark in Brazil. I have a feeling he’ll face the same fate as Jon Fitch while his stock becomes more cursed than Monster.

Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Buy it like they’re giving it away for free.

The ‘Shogun’ Rua that showed up Saturday night is not the same man who fought and lost to Jon Jones earlier this year. He proved that he has completely recovered from his past knee surgeries, and destroyed a Top 10 light-heavyweight fighter without breaking a sweat. Rua will once again rise to the top — you can bank on that.

Forrest Griffin: Sell

The two-time New York Times bestselling author and former UFC Light-Heavyweight champion is an open book when it comes to his feelings about fighting overseas, training, and why he continues to fight. Likewise, I too shall be an open book about where to put your money in the MMA stock market, and it’s not here. In his last five fights, Griffin has won only twice against guys who peaked five to seven years prior. Liquidate whatever stock you have in the TUF 1 winner.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: Sell*

At the ripe old age of 35, Big Nog did the unthinkable in knocking out a rising star in 28-year-old Brendan Schuab. Modern medicine, or maybe witchcraft, has given Nogueira an unforgettable night in front of his compatriots and you’ve gotta know he deserves it. Nevertheless, that in no way means you should buy Big Nog stock considering the likelihood that he’ll retire in the next few years and won’t be getting a crack at the title anytime soon.

*Note: If the UFC returns to Brazil in 2012, you’d be best served to make a Bed and Breakfast deal on this stock. Just be sure to dump once you think you’ve hit the tipping point.

Brendan Schaub: Hold

People have been a little high on the Hybrid. Sure, he’s promising, but his seemingly glass chin gives me pause. You won’t get rich on him, but you could definitely go broke on him. Let’s slow down on Schaub and watch it play out.

Edson Barboza: Buy

Buy this stock now and sell it early next year, right before the bubble pops. Like we mentioned here yesterday, Barboza barely got by a hand-picked opponent. Not convinced? Consider his fight against Anthony Njokuani at UFC 128 where he struggled to take home a decision win. Listen, you’re only as good as your last night and there will be a sucker that only remembers he beat a guy who won The Ultimate Fighter and will line your pockets with hundies.

Ross Pearson: Hold

There are too many talented fighters in the Lightweight division to buy more stock of the TUF 9 winner. Although he lost, he did look much better than he has in the past, so there’s no reason to sell what stock you already have. If the Brits didn’t have such a bad reputation for having a non-existent wrestling game, I may have bought some of this stock myself.

Luiz Cane: Sell

Winning just one of his last four fights — and that was against a guy who is no longer employed by Zuffa — Luiz Cane is a sinking ship. He is the only Brazilian to lose at UFC Rio, which will stick with him for years to come. He is now the answer to a trivia question. Get out while you still can and cut your losses.

Spencer Fisher: Sell, Sell, Sell

Jordan Breen said it best on Twitter last night: As much action as he’s given us over the years, Spencer Fisher is a spent force as an enterprising UFC lightweight.

Postcards from Rio, Part III: Fight Night Musings from Beer-Soaked Press Row

Filed under: UFCRIO DE JANEIRO — They don’t charge enough for beers at the HSBC Arena. I never thought I’d lodge that particular complaint against any venue, but as I watched the hailstorm of half-full plastic cups that came down from the rafters afte…

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RIO DE JANEIRO — They don’t charge enough for beers at the HSBC Arena. I never thought I’d lodge that particular complaint against any venue, but as I watched the hailstorm of half-full plastic cups that came down from the rafters after Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira beat Brendan Schaub, I was forced to admit that there was at least one upside to gouging event-goers on beer prices.

In the USA, fight fans would never throw away that much beer. Not after they paid nine dollars for it.

The most confusing part about the beer-throwing that went on at UFC 134 was the timing of it. Instead of chucking their brews in angry protest, as American fans might, Brazilians did it in celebration. Seconds after Big Nog’s upset victory, the first cup hit the apron surrounding the Octagon.

Splash. The UFC’s ringside officials looked up with baffled expressions. What kind of jerk throws a beer when their guy wins? you could almost hear them thinking. Then came the rest of the cups, sailing down like confetti.

After Mauricio “Shogun” Rua‘s win, one Brazilian reporter on press row watched as a nearly full cup landed upside down directly on the keyboard of his laptop — an impressive throw, really, and one that taught the rest of us an important lesson. After Anderson Silva‘s victory, ESPN.com reporter Chuck Mindenhall and I both immediately closed our laptops and covered them with our bodies, just in time to feel the foam sprinkling the backs of our necks. Didn’t these people ever drink any of their beer? I wondered.

For the American media members, the event might as well have been dubbed UFC 134: Cultural Differences. We knew they did things differently in Brazil. We just didn’t know how differently.

It wasn’t just the fans either, who were more vocal and more passionate than any crowd I’ve ever seen at an American MMA event. The reporters had their own style as well.

In the U.S. it’s generally accepted that you don’t cheer from press row. In Brazil, it’s no big deal to give a standing ovation to your favorite fighters, to shout encouragement during their fight, or to begin your questions at the post-fight presser by saying, ‘You’ve always been one of my idols…”

For the foreign press, just getting into the building that night had been a struggle. Since the HSBC Arena is a good hour outside of Ipanema, where the host hotel was, the UFC was kind enough to offer us a shuttle to and from the venue. A little over an hour before the first fight the shuttle dropped us off behind the arena, leaving us to wander the perimeter of the building looking for a way in. No one wanted to tell us that they didn’t know where we were supposed to pick up our credentials, so instead they just pointed to the next open door and said, ‘There.’

As in, go bother someone else.

By the time we finally found the Zuffa Will Call sign we’d been instructed to look for, we immediately understood how we’d managed to miss it for so long. Not only was the sign about the size of the top of a pizza box, it was obscured by the thousands of fans milling about in a festive mood on the sidewalk out front. Behind metal bars, and through a window that was barely bigger than a peephole, we received our credentials. Then an armed gentleman in a suit escorted us inside, and any illusion that this would be just another night of work in the MMA media was fully erased.

By the time the first fight began at 7 p.m., there was hardly an empty seat in the joint. Any reporter who’s ever tried to interview Thiago Alves knows all about ‘Brazilian time,’ but apparently it doesn’t apply on fight night.

I guess if you tell a Brazilian to meet you for lunch at noon, he shows up at 12:45. If you tell him to meet you for a fight, he’s there ten minutes early, staring impatiently at his watch.

Ian Loveland had the distinction of being the first fighter to walk out among this madness, and the raucous reception must have surprised him. This might have been the one fight the fans cared least about, since it was the only one lacking a Brazilian fighter, and still they cheered louder than some crowds did at WEC title fights.

At one point during the Loveland-Jabouin fight, a chant started up that seem to really tickle the Brazilian reporter sitting next to me.

“It’s the name of a soccer player,” he told me when I asked what it was all about. “He’s black, like Jabouin.”

“That’s it?” I said. “No other similarities?”

“No,” he said. “They don’t even really look alike.”

The chants would prove to be almost as much a part of the show as the fights. From the simple (David Mitchell probably didn’t realize an arena full of people was calling him a son of a…well, you know) to the unsettling (‘You’re going to die,’ set to the tune of ‘Whoomp! There It is,’ which was supposedly an even bigger hit in Brazil than in the U.S.), the Brazilian fans were never at a loss for words.

When they weren’t singing or chanting, they were doing the wave or else shouting along in unison with Bruce Buffer’s announcer schtick (sidenote: when a crowd knows every word of Buffer’s routine, even if they don’t speak English, you know they’re hardcore fans).

You wonder how much that kind of frenetic crowd support can really help a fighter, or hurt his opponent. It’s not like football, where crowd noise can directly contribute to penalties, so who cares if the fans are cheering for the other guy? At the same time, when Ross Pearson would tag Edson Barboza with a solid kick, the fans acted as if nothing had happened. When Barboza landed a glancing blow, they roared. Maybe that didn’t affect the judges’ decision, but in a fight that close it couldn’t have helped Pearson any.

The lone disappointment on the night for the Brazilian crowd was Luiz Cane‘s knockout loss to Bulgarian light heavyweight Stanislav Nedkov. At first they were stunned into a brief silence, then they booed, as if Nedkov had cheated somehow or else simply failed to follow the script. Then they apparently felt bad about booing, so they clapped politely. Not one to accept polite gestures gladly, Nedkov taunted them by putting his hand to his ear, Hulk Hogan-style, and the boos made an instant comeback.

If I was the beer-throwing type, here’s where I might have most tempted. But no. The Brazilians were apparently saving their cups for Nogueira’s win, which seemed to both surprise and exhilarate the entire arena.

For Nogueira, the party was just beginning. For Schaub, who made his way out of the cage sporting an eye that was already changing colors and an expression that seemed more confused than upset, the realization was just setting in.

Watching a losing fighter make his way past press row and back toward the locker rooms is always a touchingly sad moment, and so it was with Schaub. Just a few minutes earlier he had strutted into the cage like a giant, chest out and chin up in calm defiance. In defeat he seems to shrink inside of himself. You can almost see him looking for a way to disappear into the floor, to become invisible so that he might be alone with his own pain and disappointment for a little while.

Instead he has to make that long walk, where exuberant Brazilians gesture madly at him and shout in a language he doesn’t understand.

Suddenly it all seems like such an obviously bad idea. What was he thinking, coming to Rio to fight a Brazilian? Didn’t he know that this nightmare of a walk was waiting for him? Didn’t he know that they had come to celebrate his suffering, to baptize their heroes with beer, to sing him out of the arena with incomprehensible songs he would never hear again and would never forget?

Read Part I and Part II of Ben Fowlkes’ Postcards from Rio.

 

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UFC 134 Predictions

Filed under: UFCWill Anderson Silva improve to 14-0 in the UFC, or will Yushin Okami pull off one of the biggest upsets in MMA history? Can Shogun Rua avenge his loss to Forrest Griffin, or does Griffin have Rua’s number? Does Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira …

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Anderson SIlva will face Yushin Okami in the main event of UFC 134.Will Anderson Silva improve to 14-0 in the UFC, or will Yushin Okami pull off one of the biggest upsets in MMA history? Can Shogun Rua avenge his loss to Forrest Griffin, or does Griffin have Rua’s number? Does Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira have anything left, or is Brendan Schaub going to knock Big Nog into retirement? Those are the questions I’ll answer as I predict the winners at UFC 134.

What: UFC 134: Silva vs. Okami

When: Saturday, the Spike TV preliminaries begin at 8 PM ET and the pay-per-view starts at 9.

Where: HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Predictions on the five pay-per-view fights below.




Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami
Okami is the last man to defeat Silva: On Jan. 20, 2006, the two fought in the first round of a Rumble on the Rock tournament, and Silva was disqualified when he kicked Okami in the head on the ground. To the extent that their first meeting is relevant to their rematch, however, it should give Silva more confidence than it gives Okami: Silva was in control of the bout during all the stand-up exchanges until that unfortunate illegal kick the first time the fight went to the ground.

So what would Okami have to do to pull off the historic upset? The key for Okami would be to fight Silva the way Chael Sonnen fought Silva — except for the part where Sonnen got caught in a submission in the fifth round. Okami is a powerful grappler who has good takedowns and might just be able to do some of the same things to Silva that Sonnen did.

But Okami’s wrestling isn’t on the same level as Sonnen’s, and even if Okami is able to take Silva down, he’s going to have a hard time keeping Silva down. And Okami isn’t anywhere near Silva’s class as a striker. Is it possible that Okami could grind out a decision and become the new middleweight champion? Yes. Is it likely to happen? No. I think Silva wins by TKO.
Pick: Silva

Maurício Rua vs. Forrest Griffin
The co-main event is also a rematch, of Griffin’s upset victory over Rua at UFC 76. Going into that fight, most people thought Rua — a Pride wrecking machine making his UFC debut — would run through Griffin, who was very popular but known mostly for his stint on The Ultimate Fighter. Instead it was Griffin who finished Rua with a rear-naked choke in the third round.

Rua is again a big favorite this time around, as most people seem to think that Rua is healthier now than he was then, and that Griffin, at age 32, isn’t quite the fighter he once was. But I’m not convinced. I think Griffin’s size and strength is going to be tough for Rua to handle on the ground, and Griffin’s use of leg kicks will be very important to slowing Rua down. I see Griffin winning a hard-fought decision.
Pick: Griffin

Brendan Schaub vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira
Nogueira has had a long and honorable MMA career spanning more than a decade, and he’s finally fighting in his native Brazil for the first time. So it would be great to see him put on a phenomenal performance.

Unfortunately, there’s not much reason to believe Nogueira has any phenomenal performances left in him. He’s been inactive for a year and a half, so ring rust may be a problem, and in his last fight he was knocked cold by Cain Velasquez. Nogueira was once legendary for his chin, but that knockout loss to Velasquez — as well as Nogueira’s TKO loss to Frank Mir at UFC 92 — has me thinking Schaub could put him to sleep.

Schaub is a former football player who only started fighting three years ago, so he’s got nothing close to the experience of Nogueira, but he’s strong as a bull and hits like a Mack truck. I expect Schaub to handle Nogueira, and as a longtime Minotauro fan, I just hope it’s not an ugly loss.
Pick: Schaub

Ross Pearson vs. Edson Barboza
Pearson won Season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter and has shown since then a real propensity for landing effective punches and putting on exciting fights. But Barboza is a different kind of striker, a guy whose leg kicks are legendary and who is capable of finishing opponents with his hands, his elbows or his knees. The 25-year-old Barboza is 8-0 and a rising star in the lightweight division, and he should earn his biggest victory to date against Pearson.
Pick: Barboza

Luiz Cane vs. Stanislav Nedkov
Win or lose, Cane’s fights usually end quickly: He’s been to the second round just twice in his 14-fight career. The 11-0 Nedkov is also a finisher, with five wins by technical knockout and four by submission, so don’t expect this fight to go the distance. I think Cane will welcome Nedkov to the UFC with a TKO win.
Pick: Cane

 

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Luiz Cane After UFC 128 Win: I Feel Like My Career Is Beginning Today

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NEWARK, N.J. — Watch below as light heavyweight Luiz Cane discusses his first-round win over Eliot Marshall at UFC 128, getting his career back on track, what’s next and more.

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NEWARK, N.J. — Watch below as light heavyweight Luiz Cane discusses his first-round win over Eliot Marshall at UFC 128, getting his career back on track, what’s next and more.

How Scouring the Internet Helped Eliot Marshall Get Back in the UFC

Some fighters will tell you that they never read MMA news on the internet. Some will even mean it. It’s a distraction, they say, and the various things they might read about themselves – whether positive or negative – won’t do anything to help them on …

Some fighters will tell you that they never read MMA news on the internet. Some will even mean it. It’s a distraction, they say, and the various things they might read about themselves – whether positive or negative – won’t do anything to help them on fight night.

But as Eliot Marshall found out recently, for an unsigned fighter trying to get back into the UFC, sometimes the up-to-the-minute online reports are a resource too valuable to ignore.

“Some people say to look at the internet and some people say not to look at the internet,” Marshall said. “I’ve always tossed it back and forth in my head, whether it’s a good idea or not. Now I’m thoroughly convinced it’s a good idea.”

Karlos Vemola Out of UFC 128, Luiz Cane In Need of New Opponent

Filed under: UFC, FanHouse Exclusive, NewsKarlos Vemola has been forced to pull out of his scheduled UFC 128 bout following a health issue, MMA Fighting has learned.

The withdrawal leaves Luiz Cane temporarily without an opponent.

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Karlos Vemola has been forced to pull out of his scheduled UFC 128 bout following a health issue, MMA Fighting has learned.

The withdrawal leaves Luiz Cane temporarily without an opponent.