UFC on FOX 5 plays host to numerous exciting matchups, none more important than the main event. Benson Henderson defends the UFC Lightweight Championship against Nate Diaz.The free fight card has 11 fights with plenty of well-rounded fighters waiting t…
UFC on FOX 5 plays host to numerous exciting matchups, none more important than the main event. Benson Henderson defends the UFC Lightweight Championship against Nate Diaz.
The free fight card has 11 fights with plenty of well-rounded fighters waiting to show their skills and go for a fight of the night bonus.
Several fights look to be fight of the night contenders on paper. The fight card is one of the very best ever given away on free television. It will also serve as a great lead-in to Saturday’s big boxing fight: Manny Pacquiao vs. Juan Manuel Marquez.
These are the power rankings for every fight on the UFC card on Saturday night.
(Oh yeah, they’ll be plenty of this. And we definitely don’t mean the “thoughts” part.)
With a lineup that would challenge any UFC pay-per-view event in recent memory, UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz will come storming into your living rooms tomorrow night at 8 p.m. EST. You know what that means for tonight — some dudes are going to mean mug and possibly shove some other dudes that hopefully weigh-in at the same weight as the first dudes. Confused? Then join us after the jump and we’ll sort this all out for you, and make sure to swing by tomorrow at 8 p.m. to catch our liveblog of all the action!
(Oh yeah, they’ll be plenty of this. And we definitely don’t mean the “thoughts” part.)
With a lineup that would challenge any UFC pay-per-view event in recent memory, UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz will come storming into your living rooms tomorrow night at 8 p.m. EST. You know what that means for tonight — some dudes are going to mean mug and possibly shove some other dudes that hopefully weigh-in at the same weight as the first dudes. Confused? Then join us after the jump and we’ll sort this all out for you, and make sure to swing by tomorrow at 8 p.m. to catch our liveblog of all the action!
Main Card (FOX)
Benson Henderson (154.6) vs. Nate Diaz**(155.6)
Maurício Rua (205) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (205.4)
B.J. Penn (168.2) (Author’s note: ?!) vs. Rory MacDonald (170.2)
Mike Swick (170) vs. Matt Brown (170.2)
Preliminary Card (FX)
Jeremy Stephens (155.8) vs. Yves Edwards (155)
Raphael Assuncao***(136.4) vs. Mike Easton (135)
Nam Phan (145.4) vs. Dennis Siver (146)
Ramsey Nijem (155.4) vs. Joe Proctor (154.6)
Daron Cruickshank (155) vs. Henry Martinez* (158.8)
Preliminary Card (Facebook)
Scott Jorgensen (135.2) vs. John Albert (136)
Abel Trujillo (155.4) vs. Marcus LeVesseur (155.4)
*Martinez was given two hours to make 156. He decided not to and forfeited 20% of his purse.
**Diaz has to lose .6. On his second attempt, he reached 155.2, but still has two hours to drop the additional weight. Diaz hit the mark on his third try. Whew.
Last year Alexander Gustafsson, a kid from Aborga, Sweden—a town of just 10,000 souls famous for almost nothing at all in its 900 years of existence—found himself on a luxury boat. In America. Celebrating a beautiful summer day in Californi…
Last year Alexander Gustafsson, a kid from Aborga, Sweden—a town of just 10,000 souls famous for almost nothing at all in its 900 years of existence—found himself on a luxury boat. In America. Celebrating a beautiful summer day in California with several dozen people, including some attractive ladies.
Gustafsson, however, then a young fighter low on the UFC totem pole propelled by big dreams of championship gold, had eyes for only one person. Also in attendance? Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.
The same Rua who had beaten Quinton “Rampage” Jackson like a drum. Who had won the Pride Middleweight Grand Prix. A legend, at the time not yet 30 years of age. Gustafsson was a bit shell shocked.
“Alex was just beside himself,” Bad Boy CEO and owner of the aforementioned boat Robin Offner said in a recent interview. “He was happy to get to know Mauricio. And there’s extra pressure on Alex right now because he’s fighting a guy who was his hero for so many years.”
The pressure, of course, extends to Bad Boy. The apparel company, which specializes in technical clothing designed to withstand the rigors of fighting and training, has a long-standing relationship with both men. When the two meet in the cage of Fox, just the second time that’s happened in the company’s decade plus relationship with the fight business, Offner and his close-knit team will be torn.
“We hate it,” Offner admitted. “I always equate it to a mother with two children. And a tsunami comes. Which one of the two do they save?”
It’s a strange analogy, at least on its face. But to understand where Offner is coming from, you have to understand him and the business he’s built with his sister and partners over the last couple of decades. Bad Boy is different. They see themselves as a family, sponsoring only a select few fighters in relationships that tend to last for years, not the month-to-month deals that infect the rest of the industry. And in stark contrast to their name, they recruit only solid citizens, good guys who aren’t likely to end up on TMZ or pictured in a blurry-eyed, 3 a.m. mugshot after a few too many.
When Offner compares Gustafsson and Rua to those poor fictional tsunami victims, it’s because they are like a part of his clan. When Alex comes to San Diego to train with coach Eric Del Fierro at the Alliance Gym, he stays on Offner‘s boat, the same one from which he once sneaked peaks at Shogun.
“He lives there every time he’s in town. He uses one of my cars. He comes and he barbecues with us,” Offner said. “Alex is such a treat.”
And the relationship between Offner and Rua? Amazingly is even closer. The two have been partners for years. They’ve celebrated together after ascending to the peak of professional success, SkypingRua‘s wife thousands of miles away in Brazil to share the good news. He’s seen Rua grow from man child to a family man, from challenger to champion. Into a bonafide legend, an eventual Hall of Famer.
Rua, to many fans, remains an enigma. We’ve seen him fight at the highest level for years, but we have never really gotten to know him the way we have others in the sport. Whether it’s a language barrier or an inclination toward privacy, what we know about Rua is centered mainly around his fighting skills and the incredible array of tools he uses to hurt other men very badly. But this natural fighter is also a family man and, according to Offner, 31 going on 13.
“We took a bunch of the fighters to a San Diego Chargers game and some of the Chargers wanted to meet the fighters and they wanted to meet the players,” Offner said. “So there’s this area of the parking lot that’s reserved for the players and they meet with family and friends after the game. So, we’re hanging out in the parking lot waiting for the players to come out and I look around and go ‘Where’s Maurio and Fabricio Camoes?’ And we eventually find them and they are on the ground wrestling around.
“Maurico is a big kid. He’s like a 12 year old. He’s playful, he’s kind, he’s thoughtful. He’s the guy, we’ll go out to dinner and we’ll spit spitballs at each other. There’s such a dichotomy. He’s such a killer inside the cage, but he’s so gentle and sweet outside of it.”
It’s these kinds of relationships that make it hard, that have split the worldwide Bad Boy family of retailers, fighters and fans into competing groups.
“My goal in this is to not have feelings. Because, especially with Mauricio’s fights, I get so charged up,” Offner said. “I get so animated and his fights are always so exciting. I’m not much of a screamer or yeller in life, but with Shogun’s fights I end up finding myself jumping up and down and screaming when I see them.”
It’s especially hard because, in many ways, the bout represents the company’s past taking on its future, with the biggest prize in the sport within the winner’s grasp. UFC president Dana White announced that the winner would get a shot at the light heavyweight title. For Rua, that would mean a return to the top. For Gustafsson it would be the culmination of a dream.
“There is a lot of truth that this is the past versus the future. Shogun has been the face of Bad Boy for a lot of years. And he has a lot of fights left in him,” Offner said. “But we expect Alex to be with us many, many years into the future. I think that Alex, who’s just 25, will be fighting many years after Shogun has retired. Do we root for the guy that’s been the heart and soul of our company and part of our family for years? Or do we root for the guy who is potentially going to be the future face and next champion for Bad Boy?”
Gustafsson”s star is certainly on the rise. No less an expert than light heavyweight champion Jon Jones has pegged him as a potential title contender, a rapid change in status for a fighter who one year ago was competing on the deep prelims, the undercard that precedes even the opening fights on pay-per-view. These were the bouts going on while much of the crowd is still looking for their seats or gulping down their first beer. Now Gustafsson will compete in one of the main fights of the evening.
“I remember taking him to his first UFC Fan Expo and he was a complete unknown. We would walk through the hallways and he said ‘Nobody even recognizes me.’ I told him ‘Alex, enjoy it now while you can, because it won’t last long.’ Nobody knew him,” Offner said. “We’ve seen him go very quickly from anonymity to fame. And what’s great about Alex is that he has not lost his humility at all.
“At the last Fan Expo we did, people were lining up. He did his autographs in the morning and he came up to me after he was done and asked ‘would you mind if I came back in the afternoon and signed more autographs?’ He’s so humble and so sweet.”
For Shogun, this is just another fight.
“He’s a good fighter,” Rua said simply, talking to the press before the bout. “Top five in his class.”
Picture nonchalance. Then take it down a notch. It’s a major fight, sure, one broadcast coast to coast on national television both in America and his native Brazil. But he’s been doing this for a decade. There will be no nerves. He will go to the cage and do his work.
For Gustafsson it’s a huge jump in competition—his first bout with a former champion. That it’s his idol has driven him to ramp up his already-intense training to new heights.
“It’s a natural difference between two guys in different places in their careers,” Offner said. “Mauricio, he was Pride champ. He was the UFC champ. He’s had so much notoriety, so much fame. He’s got a lot more going on in his life than just training for the UFC. He’s very, very famous in Brazil.
“Alex is more single minded. He told me two months ago ‘Every night, I go to sleep and I dream about this fight.’ He’s obsessed with it.”
In his media appearances Gustafsson has looked nervous, off balance. This is the biggest fight, by far, of his young career. He confirmed it’s been on his mind for some time after his open workout earlier this week.
“I’ve been thinking about it for a long time now,” he said. “And I’ve visualized it. Things and situations. He’s a beast, but I’m ready.”
When the cage door closes, Offner will be in the crowd. He attends all of his fighter’s bouts, all over the world. But this one will be different.
“We’ll experience the sorrow with whoever loses,” he said. ” But I can’t see myself experiencing the elation of the winner.”
All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
(Staredowns from yesterday’s press conference, via MMAFighting. BJ is in amped-up savage-mode, and Bendo is just *daring* Diaz to pull some of his crazy shit again.)
UFC on Fox 5 is one of the most stacked cards of the entire year, and it’s free on network television. It contains a pseudo-grudge match between the only man in UFC history to hold the lightweight and welterweight titles, and a rising star who trains with his greatest rival. The co-main event sees a PRIDE legend and one-time UFC champ looking to reclaim his former glory in yet another epic war against a rising contender from a burgeoning MMA scene in Scandanavia. And in the main event, you have the two best lightweights in the world (besides Frankie Edgar) going head to head in the toughest division in the UFC. What more could you ask for?
Well, if the answer to that rhetorical question was “the most brilliant predictions/pre-fight analysis column ever,” then you are in luck, my friend! And because this card is so stacked, there will be not one, not two, not three, but…actually no, there will be three predictions. (Sorry Mike Swick and Matt Brown.) Logophobes, you’ve been warned.
The first of the big three fights on the card is the highly anticipated matchup between a returning BJ Penn and wunderkind Rory MacDonald. Penn’s seeking to reinforce his legacy as one of the best ever in the sport, and Rory’s been giving him even more motivation recently, claiming he’s coming to “hurt [Penn]” who he believes is “fighting for the wrong reasons.” Bold words, but MacDonald’s the type of fighter who’s capable of backing them up. He’s only lost once in his career — a TKO loss to Carlos Condit, in which he won the first two rounds before getting stopped in the waning seconds of the final round. But he holds wins over Nate Diaz and Mike Pyle, and aside from the former, all of MacDonald’s victories have come by stoppage.
It should be noted, though, that aside from Condit, Penn is a stronger fighter at this weight than any of the other fighters mentioned. He presents a greater knockout threat than any of them, has better wrestling, and has one of, if not the, best top games of any grappler in the UFC. However, Penn has historically been weak in the cardio department, particularly at welterweight. Even though he looks to be in excellent shape, he’s still carrying more weight than usual, and he’ll be forced to carry MacDonald’s weight as well. While Penn’s revamped his training camp, it’s unlikely he’ll have been able to fix a career-long deficiency, particularly after returning from “retirement.”
(Staredowns from yesterday’s press conference, via MMAFighting. BJ is in amped-up savage-mode, and Bendo is just *daring* Diaz to pull some of his crazy shit again.)
UFC on Fox 5 is one of the most stacked cards of the entire year, and it’s free on network television. It contains a pseudo-grudge match between the only man in UFC history to hold the lightweight and welterweight titles, and a rising star who trains with his greatest rival. The co-main event sees a PRIDE legend and one-time UFC champ looking to reclaim his former glory in yet another epic war against a rising contender from a burgeoning MMA scene in Scandanavia. And in the main event, you have the two best lightweights in the world (besides Frankie Edgar) going head to head in the toughest division in the UFC. What more could you ask for?
Well, if the answer to that rhetorical question was “the most brilliant predictions/pre-fight analysis column ever,” then you are in luck, my friend! And because this card is so stacked, there will be not one, not two, not three, but…actually no, there will be three predictions. (Sorry Mike Swick and Matt Brown.) Logophobes, you’ve been warned.
The first of the big three fights on the card is the highly anticipated matchup between a returning BJ Penn and wunderkind Rory MacDonald. Penn’s seeking to reinforce his legacy as one of the best ever in the sport, and Rory’s been giving him even more motivation recently, claiming he’s coming to “hurt [Penn]” who he believes is “fighting for the wrong reasons.” Bold words, but MacDonald’s the type of fighter who’s capable of backing them up. He’s only lost once in his career — a TKO loss to Carlos Condit, in which he won the first two rounds before getting stopped in the waning seconds of the final round. But he holds wins over Nate Diaz and Mike Pyle, and aside from the former, all of MacDonald’s victories have come by stoppage.
It should be noted, though, that aside from Condit, Penn is a stronger fighter at this weight than any of the other fighters mentioned. He presents a greater knockout threat than any of them, has better wrestling, and has one of, if not the, best top games of any grappler in the UFC. However, Penn has historically been weak in the cardio department, particularly at welterweight. Even though he looks to be in excellent shape, he’s still carrying more weight than usual, and he’ll be forced to carry MacDonald’s weight as well. While Penn’s revamped his training camp, it’s unlikely he’ll have been able to fix a career-long deficiency, particularly after returning from “retirement.”
All of which is to say, Penn should find success in the first round, much like his first fight against St. Pierre and his last fight against Nick Diaz. He may manage to knock Rory out or submit him should he manage to hurt him on the feet. But come the second and third rounds, expect Rory to begin imposing his size and cardio on Penn, pressuring him into the fence, securing takedowns and working constant ground and pound. A finish isn’t likely — Penn’s durability is renowned — but BJ has historically not been impressive off of his back without a gi. Should Rory secure a takedown, it’s unlikely Penn will be able to threaten him to the extent necessary to submit or sweep him. This, in turn, will allow MacDonald to work his offense and come out with a unanimous decision victory, albeit one that does not live up to his promise to truly “hurt” The Prodigy.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will face Alexander Gustafsson in the co-main event, in what is now promised to be a #1 contender’s match, and will almost assuredly be a changing of the guard in the light heavyweight division. I hate to admit that, because I’ve always been a fan of Shogun throughout his career, and even got to see him win the UFC title in Montreal. But facts are facts; he hasn’t been the same since that fight. (Undergoing a third major knee surgery following the fight might have something to do with it.) Shogun’s best weapons have always been his kicks, in no small part because they pack ungodly amounts of power. (2749 pounds of force, to be specific.) But in his fights with Jon Jones, Forrest Griffin, Dan Henderson and Brandon Vera, he’s abandoned them. It’s impossible to know why, although it’s fair to assume the accumulated damage to his knees have something to do with it.
This leaves his boxing as his focal standup technique, and Shogun’s boxing leaves much to be desired. He virtually never jabs, and most of his punches adhere to the Wanderlei Silva philosophy of berserker-rushing opponents. Which, in case you’re unaware, doesn’t do fighters any favors as they age and their reflexes slow. As a result, Shogun’s been hit hard and rocked in three of his last four fights. Even if he’s tough as nails, a human being can’t continue to take that amount of punishment. And a fighter certainly can’t expect to win if that keeps happening.
Now, he’s facing an opponent with an absurdly long reach and solid wrestling ability. Much like Jones, Shogun’s going to have a difficult time closing the distance between himself and Gustafsson. But unless he brings his kicks back, he’ll need to do that if he wants to win. Because if he doesn’t, Gustafsson’s just going to use his excellent jab to pick Shogun apart from the outside, and possibly hurt him if Shogun gets desperate and rushes in. The wild card at play here is if Shogun can get the fight to the ground — he’s got underrated jiu jitsu, and is a legitimate threat to submit Gustafsson. Sadly, that probably won’t happen. Gustafsson should take this by unanimous decision. If Rua is rocked for the fourth time in five fights, as odd as it sounds, he might have to begin thinking about retirement. He doesn’t want to run the risk of ending up like his brother.
Finally, Benson Henderson will defend his lightweight title against Nate Diaz in the main event. It’s extraordinarily difficult to pick a winner between these two. Nate’s clearly got superior boxing, but Henderson’s kicks are far more potent. Henderson’s wrestling is stronger than Diaz’s, but Diaz has an incredibly active guard. Henderson has amazing submission defense. But so did Jim Miller. Both have excellent cardio, although Diaz probably has the advantage there. It’s an incredibly even matchup, and it’s almost impossible to discern exactly how this fight will play out.
However, there are two scenarios that are more likely than the others. In the first, Henderson takes advantage of the fact that Diaz is absolutely terrible at checking leg kicks and wallops his lead leg for the majority of the fight, circling out when Diaz gets too close for comfort, just like Condit did to Nate’s older brother. Henderson may occasionally mix in a low-risk takedown towards the end of the rounds, and will make an effort to bully Nate into the fence whenever he gets the opportunity. It wouldn’t be the most exciting fight, but it would get the job done for Henderson, who would finally be able to get his first legitimate title defense under his belt. (Sorry Henderson fans, Frankie Edgar won that second fight. Don’t even try to argue.)
But that’s not how I suspect this will go down. Diaz will come forward, press Henderson with punches, and just when he sees Henderson’s about to lose his cool, he’ll flip off Henderson’s mom. Henderson will fly into a rage and open himself up for a counter, which Diaz will exploit. Alright, perhaps it won’t be quite that dramatic, but that’s going to be Diaz’ strategy. He wants to piss Henderson off and get him to play his game — volume punching, clinching, awkward takedowns, etc. I think Henderson’s susceptible to engaging in that kind of reckless behavior; just look at his fight with Clay Guida, or how he opted to stand with Anthony Pettis the entire time instead of using his superior wrestling. Ben Henderson’s a guy who likes to prove a point in his fights. The problem is you don’t want to prove a point against the Diaz brothers. Ben Henderson’s going to find that out the hard way. Diaz by submission, round 3.
This may be the 5th installment of the UFC on FOX, but somehow it feels like the very first time the UFC will be showcased for the mass cable viewing audience. With a card that far and away surpasses any previous cable-accessible card in the sport’s history, FOX has dubbed this week “Fight Week” and rightfully so. Both parties seem to be maximizing their potential for UFC on FOX 5, but we’ll have to wait until Saturday to determine whether or not the key to success on network television is having both title fights with a solid supporting card and the steady promotion FOX has offered for this event in the days leading up to it.
With a 3-3 record over the past 6 UFC PPV’s, it’s time for The Gambling Addiction Enabler to sink or swim (or specifically, find ourselves at the bottom of the ocean with a fancy matching pair of cinder blocks for shoes). So Join us as we highlight some of the undercard and all the main card bouts in the hopes of bringing you Taters some early holiday funds. All the betting lines come courtesy of BestFightOdds, per usual.
By Dan “Get Off Me” George
This may be the 5th installment of the UFC on FOX, but somehow it feels like the very first time the UFC will be showcased for the mass cable viewing audience. With a card that far and away surpasses any previous cable-accessible card in the sport’s history, FOX has dubbed this week “Fight Week” and rightfully so. Both parties seem to be maximizing their potential for UFC on FOX 5, but we’ll have to wait until Saturday to determine whether or not the key to success on network television is having both title fights with a solid supporting card and the steady promotion FOX has offered for this event in the days leading up to it.
With a 3-3 record over the past 6 UFC PPV’s, it’s time for The Gambling Addiction Enabler to sink or swim (or specifically, find ourselves at the bottom of the ocean with a fancy matching pair of cinder blocks for shoes). So Join us as we highlight some of the undercard and all the main card bouts in the hopes of bringing you Taters some early holiday funds. All the betting lines come courtesy of BestFightOdds, per usual.
Hovering around -270 Jorgensen makes the parlay must category. John Albert is 1-2 in the UFC facing opponents who I believe Jorgensen would beat hands down. It was not long ago that Scott went the distance with a guy named Renan Barao (maybe you’ve heard of him?) and I cannot see Albert, despite being the bigger fighter, being able to dictate how this fight goes. Jorgensen is one of those fighters who loses fights against the upper talent in the division but destroys fighters who are not part of that group (*cough* Ken Stone *cough*).
Even though we are talking 30 cents on the dollar territory, having a victory already under his belt against one of the better 145 pounders fighting a lesser caliber fighter is a good look for Dennis Siver. Phan is solid fighter, but not an underdog who can win here up against a better striker who has plenty experience fighting higher level UFC opponents. It might not be a steamrolling, but Siver should be able to out strike Nam and keep this fight standing possibly taking a decision on the cards.
Tim Means (-340) vs Albert Trujillo (+280)
Albert Trujillo will be making his UFC debut against Tim Means, who is sporting a perfect 2-0 record in the promotion. Another -300 fighter who is parlay bound, Tim Means has lost just once in the last seven years and has half a foot height advantage like he did in his last bout, which he finished in the first round in absolutely brutal fashion. Trujillo may be able to pose the puncher’s chance here and be tough enough to take this fight the distance, but I do not see him being able to outwork “The Dirty Bird” in this one.
Anytime there is a 10 year gap between fighters, it is generally wise to go with the younger fighter and this is surely the case with Stephens (26yrs old( vs Edwards (36yrs old). This fight should be entertaining and I believe Stephens is the stronger fighter who is just as technical in the striking department and equally skilled on the ground as Edwards. Stephens has gone the distance against arguably two of the top 5 lightweights in his past two bouts while Yves has fought mid level lightweights since returning to the UFC with mixed results. A -200 line that says Stephens will not get KO’d, subbed, or outworked by a 36yr old lands this fight on the parlay as well.
Matt Brown has rallied off more wins in the past year than Swick has had fights, but “Quick” dealt with adversity well in his last fight against Demarques Johnson and proved he can finish a fight with his accurate striking. I believe this fight shows Brown as the small underdog based on the fact that Swick has the potential to win this fight standing or on the ground. Stephen Thompson had success standing against Brown but was a fish out of water on the ground and I believe Swick has the skill to keep this fight standing while out striking “The Immortal.” I like Swick and the nearly even money line is worth a look.
Another 10 year difference in age combined with the fact that BJ has not found the fountain of youth beyond his improved physical appearance…again…has me leaning on Rory to make this fight look like round 3 of Fitch/Penn. MacDonald is very hittable and BJ has some of the best hands in the UFC, but Rory trains with GSP, has takedowns like GSP, and should not have much issue bringing BJ to the ground in this fight. I think BJ is in the wrong weight class and despite having an excellent ground game, Rory may just be too strong for BJ’s submissions game. He will likely take risks to deliver his trademark GnP to BJ with little regard to the threat of being submitted. I’m not counting BJ out completely, but we have seen the Prodigy move to 170 before and the outcome was a draw and a loss leading to a retirement announcement.
A little over a year and a half ago, Shogun was +170 going into his fight with Jon Jones as the LHW champion. This Saturday against Gustafsson, Rua is right around +185 and this may be an opportunity to take advantage of picking a solid underdog to win. Gustafsson has not fought the same level of competition as Rua in the UFC and while he has looked impressive in victory, the names he has beaten do not jump off the page just yet. Gustafsson could very well take this fight to the ground and control Rua early and often looking for a decision win, but Rua has the ability to end this fight on the feet and on the ground if he hurts Alexander on the feet. I see Gustafsson by decision or Rua by KO or Submission.
Henderson is undefeated since moving over to the UFC and will be looking to defend his title against his toughest test yet. Had I not seen Nate’s last fight against Jim Miller, I would quickly predict Diaz to be taken down by Bendo and grinded out over 5 rounds. I made the mistake of picking Miller over Diaz precisely due to the fact that I believed Miller would be able to take Diaz down when the striking game was not going in his favor. What I did not know was that Nate has finally developed his take down defense, which leads me to believe he will be able to stuff the lightweight kingpin’s efforts to bring this fight to the ground. In the past, Nate has been taken down by Stevenson, Guida and Maynard with all those bouts resulting in losing efforts. Something clicked against Miller (who had never been finished) and Diaz controlled the fight from the get-go. Benson seems to be impervious to submissions, but if he allows Diaz to lock in a guillotine (like Cerrone) or take his back (like Pettis) he may find out how good Gracie Jiu Jitsu really is. Like Pettis, Diaz is heavy on his lead leg, which will offer a nice target for Henderson to hit, but Bendo was unable to take advantage of this against “Showtime” and I believe the same will happen with Nate. With an advantage in the stand up and submissions department, I will go with Nate Diaz to submit Ben Henderson to become the new UFC lightweight champion.
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz is, undeniably, the best thing to happen to MMA on free television. Ever. Period.There has never been a show so stacked with talent, meaningful fights and guys who are absolutely going to show people what the UFC offers w…
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz is, undeniably, the best thing to happen to MMA on free television. Ever. Period.
There has never been a show so stacked with talent, meaningful fights and guys who are absolutely going to show people what the UFC offers when it’s at its best.
If this event was a pay-per-view, fans would be salivating at the prospect of handing over $60 to Dana White and his chums to watch it. The fact that it’s on free television is almost too much for a man to comprehend.
Comprehend they will though, when fists start flying and leather starts landing come Saturday night in Seattle.
Over the course of the network program (which will likely lap FOX’s usual Saturday staple Cops in viewership, even if it can only offer a comparable amount of chaotic violence), two of the most revered legends in the history of MMA will walk to the Octagon.
Shogun Rua will fight Alexander Gustafsson in the co-main event, and before him, BJ Penn will return from retirement to try his luck against up-and-comer Rory MacDonald.
And both men have so, so much to lose, it’s not even funny.
For Rua, it’s more or less the same game he’s had to play since he was aged into near irrelevancy in his title loss to Jon Jones. Jones demolished him, to the point that many wondered if he was done as a contender literally overnight—as in, he woke up on Saturday as the best light heavyweight alive, and woke up Sunday with people eulogizing his career.
Since then, he’s had to face down the reality that at 31, people think he’s on the downside of his career. He’s 2-1 since the Jones loss, beating Forrest Griffin and Brandon Vera while suffering a narrow defeat to Dan Henderson in the best fight most people have ever seen, but he’s been getting by on durability a lot of the time.
Henderson couldn’t finish him and he gutted it out against Vera, but since Griffin (a guy a lot of people seem to be looking good against these days), he’s been unspectacular. A loss of Gustafsson, the man many believe to be the last curious test for Jones in the title picture, and people will truly claim Shogun to be toast at 205.
And only moments before the world finds out whether or not Rua is still a threat to recapture his former glory? Well, that time will be spent finding out if the most enigmatic man the UFC has ever promoted is still great, still worthy of his billing, still the legend people once thought he was destined to be.
BJ Penn has been the ultimate warrior in his career. He has fought anyone and still will fight anyone. He doesn’t like to train, hates being in shape, but boy, does he like to fight.
That’s why he came back. To fight. Particularly, to fight Rory MacDonald, a rising star who’s penchant for beating people up has led to a penchant for running his mouth.
Make no mistake, this fight is a nightmare matchup for Penn. That’s part of his appeal, though: He’s never asked for it easy. He’s a natural lightweight who could probably make 145 if he committed to it, but he’s fighting a welterweight who could very well be a middleweight before 2014.
That bruising welterweight said some things about Penn, mostly about his sizable paunch and year-long layoff, and the Hawaiian decided he’d like to punch MacDonald in the face for it.
It’s a big risk to walk off the streets of Hilo and pick a cage fight with a guy that no one else in the division is thrilled about exchanging punches with. But it’s a risk Penn is taking, and he’s taking it with the reckless enthusiasm of the kid from a decade ago who knew only how to “just scrap.”
He’s—get this—in shape. He looks mean, like he wants to hurt MacDonald outside of a bar just as much as he would want to inside the confines of a regulated athletic contest. He’s talking about his legacy, his greatness, and there’s a genuine fire in him that hasn’t been there for a long, long time.
No one has the capacity to get people riled up like BJ Penn, and he’s done it so many times before with poor showings that it shouldn’t still work. But it does. People want to see him fight, and they want to believe that he’s really back this time.
And so it goes that there are two legends on UFC on FOX this weekend that have more to lose than anyone else. Yes, Benson Henderson could conceivably lose his title, but that’s a thing that can be recaptured, especially when you’re on the south side of 30.
A legacy though? A legacy can never be recaptured. Once it’s lost, it’s gone forever. Nobody wants to be the guy who held on too long or the guy who might never have been what everyone thought he was, all because of a loss or two to the best young guys out there.
That’s what’s at stake for Shogun Rua and BJ Penn on Saturday night. Who needs a gold belt?
Last year Alexander 
