UFC on FX: 5 Things to Watch for During Guillard vs. Miller

The UFC makes their grand debut on FX this Friday.The event will be highlighted by an exciting lightweight matchup featuring Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard against Jim Miller.Both fighters have hit a stumbling block recently in their careers.Guil…

The UFC makes their grand debut on FX this Friday.

The event will be highlighted by an exciting lightweight matchup featuring Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard against Jim Miller.

Both fighters have hit a stumbling block recently in their careers.

Guillard was on his way up the lightweight rankings with five straight wins, including three finishes. That was until he ran in to Joe Lauzon at UFC 136. Guillard was submitted via rear-naked choke in the first round.

Miller was also on the doorstep of a lightweight title shot when he was matched up against former WEC lightweight champion Ben Henderson. Henderson was able to pull off the decision victory over Miller and is going on to face Frankie Edgar for the UFC lightweight championship.

Both lightweights will be looking to get back on track to a title shot, but they’ll need to get through one another first.

Here are five things to watch for during the main event.

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UFC on FX: By the Odds

Filed under: UFCThe UFC heads to Nashville this Friday night for a fight card that makes up for with easy accessibility what it lacks in star power. Sure, maybe we’re not talking about the biggest names here, and maybe the big(ger) names on the card ar…

Filed under:

Melvin GuillardThe UFC heads to Nashville this Friday night for a fight card that makes up for with easy accessibility what it lacks in star power. Sure, maybe we’re not talking about the biggest names here, and maybe the big(ger) names on the card are mostly coming off losses, but what do you expect for a Friday night on FX?

At least oddsmakers still care enough to handicap the action, and at least I still care enough to see if I can’t make them pay for it.

Jim Miller (-180) vs. Melvin Guillard (+150)

When you talk about this fight, you’re going to end up comparing losses. There’s just no way around it. You take two lightweight contenders who had their respective rises suddenly and violently halted, and it’s only natural that we’d go back and try to sort through whose loss was worse, and what it means now. Miller had a pretty thorough beating put him on by Ben Henderson, but now that Henderson’s getting set to challenge for the lightweight title that doesn’t look so bad. Guillard, on the other hand, lost a shocker to Joe Lauzon after getting dropped and then choked early in the first round. It’s a longer fall, quality of opponent-wise, but it does have a bit of a fluke-ish quality to it, which you can attribute to Guillard’s reckless overconfidence. You know, if you really want to.

This is what makes picking a winner in this fight so difficult. You can kind of talk yourself into anything. It’s a little surprising to see Miller this much of a favorite, but then you think about his ground game, his seven-fight win streak prior to the Henderson loss, and it makes sense. And Guillard? Guillard has the allure of pure ability. The promise of speed and power and an athletic ability that even he can’t help but overestimate at times. Guillard seems like the kind of guy who can beat anybody when things fall his way, but also like the kind of guy who could lose to anybody and at any given moment. It’s not hard to imagine him knocking Miller out with a flying knee, nor is it difficult to picture him missing that same flying knee, landing on his end, and getting submitted seconds later. It all depends on what you want to tell yourself.
My pick: Miller. Unlike Guillard, he never beats himself. In a fight like this, don’t be surprised if that turns out to be enough.




Duane Ludwig (-115) vs Josh Neer (-115)

Right off I’ll say it: I’m surprised at this line. I would have thought that Ludwig would have been the clear favorite and Neer the obvious underdog. That’s not meant as a knock on Neer, who still does a few things very well and for whom toughness is never a question. But Ludwig seems to be undergoing a sort of mini-Renaissance lately. He seems more at home in the welterweight division than he ever was in the lightweight class, and he’s sharpened his defensive wrestling skills to the point where his kickboxing is even more of a problem for opponents. As long as he’s fully healthy, it’s hard for me to see how Neer wins this. At one point, oddsmakers agreed. He was up in the +120 range until the money started to flow in, but it’s not like his chances have really improved since then. He still deserves to be a slight underdog against Ludwig. It’s just that, if you jump on it now, you won’t get anywhere near the value out of him.
My pick: Ludwig. I wouldn’t say it’s a lock, but I would say this is his fight to lose. If he plays it smart, he ought to pick Neer apart on the feet for as long as it takes.

Mike Easton (-400) vs. Jared Papazian (+300)

You can always tell that the odds are going to be heavily in one guy’s favor when his opponent doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page yet. Maybe it was Wednesday’s Wikipedia protest blackout, or maybe the denizens of the internet just don’t care enough about a UFC newcomer until he actually does something in the Octagon. Either way we’re looking at another bantamweight bout that oddsmakers expect Mike Easton to win and win easily. That makes sense. Easton’s had a pretty charmed career up until this point, while Papazian has been up and down, winning some and losing some against the knowns and unknowns alike. Papazian does have a three-fight win streak going, which has to count for something. Then again, those are three wins over guys most fans probably never heard of. The UFC must have seen something in him, even if that something was a warm body for Easton to throttle on a card so lacking in big names, Christian Morecraft appears on the poster. Hey, somebody had to say it.
My pick: Easton. It’s a parlay pick for sure, but I can’t think of a single reason to think that Dominick Cruz’s personal hype man won’t swarm all over Papazian.

Pat Barry (-175) vs. Christian Morecraft (+145)

You never know exactly what you’re going to get with Barry. On paper, he looks like a mediocre heavyweight who’s just barely holding on to a UFC roster spot. But those who’ve actually seen him in the cage know that he’s probably the best 6-4 fighter in all of MMA. It’s just that, lately, none of the breaks have gone his way. Morecraft is another of the big, hulking heavyweights that seem to have popped up like weeds in the UFC recently. He’s in the same mold as guys like Travis Browne and Ben Rothwell, all towering heavyweights who look like they’d make great extras in a Viking movie. Morecraft will obviously have a size advantage, but that’s nothing new for Barry. It would probably throw him off more to fight someone his own height at this point. On a pure skill level, Barry’s on another planet. Morecraft has to know he can’t win a kickboxing match against him. What he has to do is treat this like a bar fight and take technique out of the equation. He’s the bigger, stronger man, with an edge on the mat. Again though, if Barry isn’t used to that by now, he never will be.
My pick: Barry. I know, this is usually the point where I talk myself into taking an underdog, but I can’t do it here. Eventually Barry has to catch a break. He just has to.

Quick picks:

– Jorge Rivera (+115) over Eric Schafer (-146). If I have to choose between two fighters down on their luck, I’ll take the guy who got that way by facing superior opponents.

– Khabib Nurmagomedov (even) over Kamal Shalorus (-130). First of all, Nurmagomedov needs a nickname in a bad, bad way. Secondly, I have yet to be impressed with a full performance by Shalorus, who tends to look good only in short bursts.

The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay:
Ludwig + Easton + Barry. Also throw in Charlie Brenneman, who’s at -300 over Daniel Roberts. Because why not?

 

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UFC on FX Predictions

Filed under: UFCCan Melvin Guillard get back on track after his swift loss to Joe Lauzon in October? Or is Jim Miller going to hand Guillard yet another submission loss? Who’s more likely to keep his recent momentum going, Duane Ludwig or Josh Neer? An…

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Can Melvin Guillard get back on track after his swift loss to Joe Lauzon in October? Or is Jim Miller going to hand Guillard yet another submission loss? Who’s more likely to keep his recent momentum going, Duane Ludwig or Josh Neer? And what kind of heavyweight brawl are Pat Barry and Christian Morecraft going to give us?

I’ll attempt to answer those questions and more as I predict the winners of Friday night’s UFC event below.

What: UFC on FX 1: Guillard vs. Miller

When: Friday, the Fuel TV preliminary fights begin at 6 p.m. ET and the FX main card begins at 9.

Where: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee

Predictions on the four FX fights below.

Melvin Guillard vs. Jim Miller
Guillard has a ton of talent, and when he’s on his game he can look spectacular. The problem is there’s a certain type of fighter who can take Guillard off his game, and Miller is exactly that kind of fighter.

Nine years and 42 fights into into his professional MMA career, Guillard still hasn’t given us any reason to think he’s going to beat a guy like Miller, who can take him down and submit him on the ground. Guillard has nine losses in his career, and eight of them came by submission. Miller has 20 wins in his career, and 11 of them came by submission.

Guillard is a good enough striker that it’s possible he could catch Miller and become the first person ever to finish him. But it’s much more likely that Miller will make Guillard tap.
Pick: Miller

Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer
Things have gone very well for Ludwig lately, as he’s on a surprising two-fight winning streak in the UFC and was recently handed the record for the fastest knockout in UFC history, as the UFC decided to ignore the Nevada State Athletic Commission, which says Ludwig took 11 seconds to knock Jonathan Goulet out, and call it officially a six-second knockout.




So will Ludwig keep his momentum going against Neer? I don’t think so. Neer is on a five-fight winning streak and looked good in his UFC return against Keith Wisniewski in October. After a couple years out of the UFC, Neer appears to be focused and determined to get his career back on track, and I see him earning a big win against Ludwig.
Pick: Neer

Mike Easton vs. Jared Papazian
Easton is a very impressive young bantamweight who made his UFC debut with a TKO of Byron Bloodworth in October. I love Easton’s potential to make waves in the UFC. Easton was originally slated to fight Ken Stone on this card, but when Stone suffered an injury, Papazian stepped in on short notice to fill the slot. Papazian is a solid prospect making his UFC debut, but Papazian would be better suited as a flyweight, and he’s not quite ready for an opponent on Easton’s level.
Pick: Easton

Pat Barry vs. Christian Morecraft
Both of these heavyweights are coming off losses, and if the heavyweight division weren’t so shallow I’d think the loser might be in danger of getting cut by the UFC. But the heavyweight division is shallow, and so the UFC needs guys like Barry and Morecraft, who are both limited as fighters but both usually put on good shows. It wouldn’t shock me to see Barry soften Morecraft up with leg kicks and finish him off with punches, but Barry struggles so much on the ground that I suspect Morecraft is going to take Barry down and make him tap.
Pick: Morecraft

 

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UFC on FX: Guillard vs. Miller, B/R Full Main Card Staff Predictions

The UFC will make its return to Nashville, TN this Friday for UFC on FX. Featured in the main event will be Jim Miller (20-3) and Melvin Guillard (46-10-3 1NC), two lightweights who are looking to get back into title contention after ending 2011 w…

The UFC will make its return to Nashville, TN this Friday for UFC on FX. 

Featured in the main event will be Jim Miller (20-3) and Melvin Guillard (46-10-3 1NC), two lightweights who are looking to get back into title contention after ending 2011 with disappointing losses. 

In a welterweight scrap, Duane Ludwig will meet fellow UFC veteran Josh Neer.  

Relativity new UFC fighter Mike Easton (11-1) will take on UFC newcomer Jared Papazian in a bantamweight battle.

And the always entertaining Pat Barry will meet scrapper Christian Morecraft in a heavyweight battle. 

Bleacher Report MMA Featured Columnists Dwight Wakabayashi, Dale De Souza, John Heinis and I, Jeff McKinney, are here to let you know who will win Friday night.

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Melvin Guillard: "I’ll Never Leave the Sport, It Saved My Life"

On Friday, January 20th, Melvin Guillard (29-9-2) will enter the Octagon to take part in the main event of the evening at UFC on FX.UFC on FX will take place at the Bridgestone Arena located in Nashville, Tennessee and begin at 6:00 p.m. PT and 9:00 p….

On Friday, January 20th, Melvin Guillard (29-9-2) will enter the Octagon to take part in the main event of the evening at UFC on FX.

UFC on FX will take place at the Bridgestone Arena located in Nashville, Tennessee and begin at 6:00 p.m. PT and 9:00 p.m. ET.

In a recent interview with Bleacher Report’s Garrett Derr, “The Young Assassin” shared about his upcoming bout with Jim Miller along with how he developed a deep passion and love for the sport of mixed martial arts.

“My love for the sport of mixed martial arts really became alive in my life around the age of 14,” said Guillard. “That was when I saw my first ever UFC fight and I began to fall in love with the Gracie brothers.”

“It was always a childhood dream of mine to grow up and become one of those guys. But, to be honest with you, at the time, I never really thought it would come true. My life changed completely and by the age of 15 I had already gone pro,” stated Guillard.

Guillard’s work ethic and mindset led him to a blessed career where he was immediately considered a legitimate threat to every opponent that stood across him in the Octagon.

After winning eight of nine bouts, Guillard found himself set to take on Joe Lauzon at UFC 136 in Houston, Texas.

The fame and fortune came to a red light as Guillard was upset in the very first round of action by way of rear-naked choke.

However, through experience and determination, his loss to Lauzon was something Guillard was able to overcome fairly easily.

“I shrugged off the loss fairly quickly. Looking at it now, I never thought that I was going to be headlining a fight with Jim Miller following my defeat. The UFC and the fans are finally starting to see I’m a serious contender for the title,” said Guillard. “People are beginning to realize that I’m one of the elite fighters in this organization.”

“Even when I lose I go out with a bang. However, I can’t afford anymore setbacks. I’m definitely not looking past Jim Miller and I didn’t look past Joe Lauzon either. If anything, I’ve learned a lot from the loss. I’m constantly learning to become more focused and patient,” stated Guillard.

As Guillard continues to learn new things as his career progresses, he’ll be doing so in a brand new environment. Guillard recently made the transition from Greg Jackson’s camp and is now training with former UFC light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans at Imperial.

“I love it in Florida and it’s a permanent move for me. It’s the best thing for my career right now. Both teams are great and both sets of coaches are awesome,” said Guillard.

“Nothing really persuaded me to change over teams. I deeply respect the guys at Jackson and think they have a great thing going on down there,” stated Guillard. “I thought training here is what I needed for my career right now.”

Guillard’s move may have been the best decision after all, as a win would certainly continue to push him up the 155 pound rankings. In fact, a win over Miller could mean a potential title shot against the winner of Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson at UFC 144.

“The No. 1 contender spot hasn’t been confirmed, but it’s been told to me by close sources. With that being said, every fight is a title shot for me,” said Guillard. “That’s what it’s always been.”

“You have to fight to stay in the game and every fight is a title shot. If the title shot comes then it comes but if I have to fight another fight until it happens, I’m fine with that. I just want to fight,” stated Guillard.

While Guillard would certainly love for his title shot to come sooner than later, his central focus is on defeating Miller on January 20th.

“I always feel that I have the advantage over every guy I fight. I’m just a well-rounded athlete. When you’re a young kid growing up and you have older brothers bullying you, you learn pretty quickly what you have to do to survive,” laughed Guillard.

“I didn’t fall into fighting, fighting chose me. When I fight greater fighters like Jim Miller, guys like that can’t break me,” stated Guillard. “I feel very confident that I’m going to walk out of Nashville victorious.”

While “The Young Assassin” is still young and has plenty of gas left in the tank, he often envisions his future outside of the UFC as distant as that may be.

Guillard will certainly have plenty of opportunities inside the sport of MMA due to his exceptional knowledge of the sport.

“When I hang up the gloves for the last time, I want to be an analyst for the sport. I want to break down the fights as that’s also been a dream of mine. I’ll never leave the sport. It saved my life and it’s provided me with some good and bad. But, I wouldn’t change it for the world,” stated Guillard.

“I also have a desire to become a motivational speaker for young kids,” said Guillard. “I want them to know they have someone there and have someone to help them.”

Guillard concluded by stating,

“I was one of those kids. That’s what my heart is really set on.”

 

For additional information, follow Garrett Derr on Twitter.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC on FX: Final Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

This Friday, Jan. 20, the UFC arrives on FX.Just more than a week before the UFC’s first official event on FOX, the four-fight main card will feature two of the lightweight division’s former contenders in Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard.Rounded out by j…

This Friday, Jan. 20, the UFC arrives on FX.

Just more than a week before the UFC’s first official event on FOX, the four-fight main card will feature two of the lightweight division’s former contenders in Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard.

Rounded out by journeymen and up-and-comers alike, the rest of the main card fights don’t carry all that much significance, but they should be fun to watch, nonetheless:

  • Pat “HD” Barry vs. Christian Morecraft
  • Mike “The Hulk” Easton vs. Jared “The Jackhammer” Papazian
  • Duane “Bang” Ludwig vs. Josh “The Dentist” Neer
  • Jim Miller vs. Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard

The fights will get started at 9:00 p.m. ET on FX, with the undercard leading off on Fuel TV.

Without further ado, let’s get to the fights… 

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