UFC on FOX Predictions

Filed under: UFC, UFC on FOXWill Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos deliver a classic fight in the first-ever UFC broadcast on network television? Will they put on the kind of performance that has the first-time UFC viewers clamoring for more? Will t…

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Junior dos Santos, right, will face Cain Velasquez in the main event on the UFC on FOX card.Will Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos deliver a classic fight in the first-ever UFC broadcast on network television? Will they put on the kind of performance that has the first-time UFC viewers clamoring for more? Will the winner emerge as an American sports star? And ultimately, who will get his hand raised and the UFC heavyweight belt put around his waist on Saturday night?

I’ll attempt to answer those questions and more below.

What: UFC on Fox 1: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos

When: Saturday, the Facebook undercard stream begins at 4:45 p.m. ET and the Fox broadcast begins at 9.

Where: Honda Center, Anaheim

Predictions on all the fights below.

Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos
From a business perspective, the big question is whether this fight is going to turn new viewers who watch on Fox for the first time into UFC fans. That’s what the UFC is really hoping for with the decision to put the heavyweight title on the line for free on network television.

It’s probably too much to ask that we could get a classic battle along the lines of Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonnar at the first Ultimate Fighter Finale — the gold standard for fights that brought the UFC new fans. But I do believe this is going to be a highly entertaining fight: Velasquez and Dos Santos are both compelling figures who rarely look dull in the cage, and unlike so many heavyweights, they both have the gas tank to keep this fight explosive even if it goes into the fifth round.

So who wins it? If I were certain that Velasquez is completely healthy, I’d probably give him a slight edge, thanks to his wrestling: We haven’t yet seen Dos Santos tested on the ground, and Velasquez might be the man to put him on his back and put him in trouble. However, I have nagging questions about whether Velasquez’s rotator cuff surgery could affect him in this fight. Will he have the same strength and movement that he had when he beat Brock Lesnar a year ago?

And because of those questions about Velasquez’s shoulder, I’m going to give a slight edge to Dos Santos, who I think will be able to keep the fight standing most of the way and get the better of the striking exchanges with Velasquez. Heavyweight fights that go the full five rounds don’t come along very often, but I think we’re going to see one here: Dos Santos wins by decision and becomes the new UFC heavyweight champion.
Pick: Dos Santos




Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson
The most disappointing part of the UFC on Fox card is that this fight — which may determine the next contender for the UFC lightweight title — has been relegated to being shown on an online stream on Facebook and FoxSports.com, and won’t make it to TV. This is a great fight that shouldn’t be overlooked. Guida’s path to victory would be to take Henderson down, control him from the top and grind out a decision, but I think Henderson is going to be too strong for him and should take this one.
Pick: Henderson

Dustin Poirier vs. Pablo Garza
At age 22, Poirier is one of the most promising young fighters in the featherweight division, and a likely future title contender. I like him to win by submission over Garza in what looks to me like the Fight of the Night favorite.
Pick: Poirier

Cub Swanson vs. Ricardo Lamas
In what should be another very exciting featherweight fight, Swanson will have too much for Lamas and win a technical knockout.
Pick: Swanson

DaMarques Johnson vs. Clay Harvison
In a battle of former Ultimate Fighter contestants, look for Harvison to take control early and finish Johnson off by TKO.
Pick: Harvison

Norifumi Yamamoto vs. Darren Uyenoyama
There are a whole bunch of American fans these days who have no idea that Kid Yamamoto was once considered among the To 10 pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Yamamoto has only won one fight since New Year’s Eve 2007, and the Japanese MMA scene has fallen apart, and so Yamamoto feels like an ancient relic to a lot of newer fans. But even if Yamamoto isn’t what he once was, he should still be good enough to beat Uyenoyama, a UFC newcomer. Look for Yamamoto to pick up his first win inside the Octagon.
Pick: Yamamoto

Mackens Semerzier vs. Robert Peralta
Peralta is on an eight-fight winning streak which included a victory over Dream featherweight champion Hiroyuki Takaya, a victory for Peralta that opened a lot of eyes and got him his shot in the UFC. I think he’ll make it nine in a row against Semerzier.
Pick: Peralta

Alex Caceres vs. Cole Escovedo
Cacares, the former Ultimate Fighter bad boy, is moving down to bantamweight in what looks like a final attempt to stay on the UFC roster. I like Escovedo to put a beating on “Bruce Leroy” and knock him out of the UFC.
Pick: Escovedo

Mike Pierce vs. Paul Bradley
Pierce, who’s 4-2 in the UFC, has already beaten Bradley once before and should do it again in Bradley’s second fight in the Octagon. Look for a one-sided unanimous decision in Pierce’s favor.
Pick: Pierce

Aaron Rosa vs. Matt Lucas
Lucas is getting his first shot in the UFC after fighting for most of his career in Rage in the Cage. I like him to win his debut and likely get Rosa sent packing from the UFC.
Pick: Lucas

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Inaugural UFC on Fox Adds Three More Bouts


(Awwwww yeah.)

When the UFC decided to add a couple more fights to their first card on Fox, we figured it was the inevitable result of our time tested, sound advice. And now, Sherdog has confirmed that they are in fact adding three additional bouts to the card, so I’d say our theory is pretty much a lock at this point.

Though the fights may not be composed of big names like “Dos Santos” and “Velasquez,” there are still some pretty interesting match-ups with the definite potential for fireworks, the first of which is a featherweight contest between Virginian powerhouse Mackens Semerzier and Robert Peralta. Semerzier most recently broke a 3 fight skid with a first round submission victory over Alex “Bruce Leroy” Caceres back at UFC Fight Night 24. Peralta is coming off a successful UFC debut at UFN 25 where he scored a unanimous decision victory over Mike Lullo.


(Awwwww yeah.)

When the UFC decided to add a couple more fights to their first card on Fox, we figured it was the inevitable result of our time tested, sound advice. And now, Sherdog has confirmed that they are in fact adding three additional bouts to the card, so I’d say our theory is pretty much a lock at this point.

Though the fights may not be composed of big names like “Dos Santos” and “Velasquez,” there are still some pretty interesting match-ups with the definite potential for fireworks, the first of which is a featherweight contest between Virginian powerhouse Mackens Semerzier and Robert Peralta. Semerzier most recently broke a 3 fight skid with a first round submission victory over Alex “Bruce Leroy” Caceres back at UFC Fight Night 24. Peralta is coming off a successful UFC debut at UFN 25 where he scored a unanimous decision victory over Mike Lullo.

Mike Pierce has compiled a respective 4-2 record in his octagon run, scoring notable victories over Brock Larson and Amilcar Alves, though is coming off a close split decision loss to welterweight contender Johny Hendricks. This fight will be held at lightweight however, against Paul “The Gentleman” Bradley, who dropped a unanimous decision of his own to Rafael Natal in his UFC debut at UFC 133. These two have actually fought before, with Pierce coming away the victor via unanimous decision.

And finally, Matt Lucas will be making his octagon debut against tough veteran Aaron Rosa in a light heavyweight tilt. Rosa is perhaps best known for his gritty back and forth brawl with Joey “The Mexicutioner” Beltran back at UFC 131, which he eventually lost by TKO in the third round. Rosa will be making the drop to 205 lbs. for this fight, and will face a tough test in UFC newcomer Lucas, who is riding a five fight win streak including 4 (T)KO finishes within the first two minutes.

With the addition of these three fights, it’s safe to say the UFC on Fox card is shaping up to be as epic as the deal itself. Not only does it feature the heavyweight championship fight between Dos Santos and Velasquez, but the extensive preliminary card features a lightweight battle of top contenders when former WEC lightweight champ Ben Henderson takes on Clay Guida. Norifumi ”Kid” Yamamoto also returns to action against Darren Uyenoyama, and featherweight highlight reel Pablo Garza takes on Dustin Poirier.

-Danga 

Amilcar Alves: UFC 118’s New Guy (Besides James Toney)

(Props: EASJBS)
Since you’re probably tired of hearing about James Toney and his wack-ass smack talk, we’re going to leave him out of today’s installment of The New Guys. Instead, we’ll focus on a fighter who actually has a decent chance of w…

(Props: EASJBS)

Since you’re probably tired of hearing about James Toney and his wack-ass smack talk, we’re going to leave him out of today’s installment of The New Guys. Instead, we’ll focus on a fighter who actually has a decent chance of winning his UFC debut at #118, and will probably stick around for one more fight even if he loses. Ladies and gentlemen, meet the other guy who will be entering the Octagon for the first time on Saturday…

AMILCAR ALVES (WW)
Experience: 11-1 record (seven wins by first-round stoppage), competing for various Brazilian promotions. Last competed in December 2009, avenging his only career loss with a 59-second knockout of Fernando Paulon.
Will be facing: Mike Pierce (11-3, 2-1 UFC), in the first fight of the preliminary card.
Lowdown: A product of the red-hot Nova Uniao team in Brazil, Amilcar Alves is a training partner of such elite fighters as Jose Aldo and Marlon Sandro. The judo black belt plans on being a crowd-pleaser: “I know what audience and the promotion expect from a newcomer: to be a ferocious and hungry dog, and this is what I want to [be]. I know what I’ll bring will please the person who’s a UFC fan, much aggressiveness and versatility…I’m capable of bringing new tricks to the table in any moment.”

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