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TUF 15 Finale – Post Fight Analysis

The main event at the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale resulted in an upset as Martin Kampann finished Jake Ellenberger with a second round TKO after landing a short counter right hand and following up with knee strikes. In typical Kampmann style, he was knocked down by a huge Ellenberger right hand in the first round but managed to survive a difficult spot to come back and earn the victory. Most of Kampmann’s fights end with both competitors wearing the evidence of a back and forth striking battle and last night’s installment was no different. The opening round of the fight started with both fighters wary of the other’s dangerous striking. Ellenberger landed the right hand half way through the round and pounced on Kapmann in an attempt to end the fight. Kampmann was aware enough to defend against the ground and pound barrage that ensued forcing Ellenberger to slow down to avoid burning himself out. Kampmann was more aggressive to begin the second round and started to hurt Ellenberger with counter punches. A quick counter right hand that was almost imperceptible sent Ellenberger stumbling toward the cage and Kampmann moved forward patiently to finish the fight. He landed two big knees that dropped his opponent and would have continued his attack on the ground had the fight not been stopped. Initially, the stoppage seemed quick but Ellenberger wasn’t upset with it and the replay showed that he was not in a defensive position. For Ellenberger, this is a step back after years of climbing the welterweight ladder. With losses to current interim 170 pound champion Carlos Condit and Kampmann, he will have to put together a few victories in a row to get back into the title picture. For Kampmann, he has taken one step closer to a title fight. The most likely fight after last night’s results seems to be a contender fight with Johnny Hendricks who recently defeated Josh Koscheck.

Charles Oliveira earned his second consecutive victory at 145 pounds when Jonathan Brookins tapped to a second round guillotine choke. Oliveira was clearly the better fighter throughout the fight with Brookins only gaining an advantage when he was briefly able to draw Oliveira into wild brawling exchanges. For most of the fight, Oliveira stayed on the outside landing punches and leg kicks while occasionally closing the distance with combinations. Oliviera put Brookins on his back in the second round and took advantage of his opponent’s attempt to stand up by latching on to a guillotine choke and submitting Brookins. We may have seen Brookins’ ceiling in the fight and while he can provide interesting fights going forward, he will probably never be a title contender. Expect to see him get a more winnable fight in his next cage appearance as the UFC looks to protect its former Ultimate Fighter winner. For Oliviera, this was one more step toward what looks to be an inevitable rise to the upper echelon of the featherweight division. The question for the UFC is how fast to move him along because if they put him in with a top competitor too quickly, his relative inexperience at age twenty two could lead to a loss. However, he has established that mid tier fighters will not provide any competition so feeding him two or three more easy fights may not be the best decision either.

In the other non TUF related fight on the card, Max Holloway dominated Pat Schilling. At just twenty years old, Holloway was impressive and his development over the next few years will be interesting to watch. After being outclassed by Dustin Poirier in his first UFC fight, Holloway was able to display his full arsenal against Schilling. He brutalized Shilling’s body with punches that left his opponnent barely able to get back to a standing position by the end of the fight. Holloway showed excellent poise in following his gameplan, which was clearly not to engage with Schilling on the ground and keep the fight on the feet. The only time he was in any danger was when Schilling latched on to a kneebar at the end of the first round. From that point, Holloway refused to go to the ground even after dropping Schilling with punches. He made his opponent stand up and continued his assault on the feet. The only way he could have been more impressive was to finish the fight but considering his age and striking acumen, Holloway is on the right track toward becoming a factor in the 145 pound division.

TUF 15 Finale Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampann Both fighters in the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale’s main event are coming off of wins in their most recent bouts with Martin Kampmann currently on a two fight win streak.

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampann

Both fighters in the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale’s main event are coming off of wins in their most recent bouts with Martin Kampmann currently on a two fight win streak while while Jake Ellenberger is riding a six fight win streak after losing his opening appearance in the the UFC. The winner of this fight will establish himself as a title contender in the 170 lb division where Georges St. Pierre awaits interim champion Carlos Condit. Whoever earns the victory on Friday night should be no more than one fight away from a shot at the belt.

Kampmann pulled out a last minute submission via guillotine choke over Thiago Alves in his last appearance in the cage. The fight had been extremely competitive up to that point with Alves having a slight advantage on my scorecard in each of the first two rounds. The third round would have been close as well if not for Kampmann’s timely submission. In his recent fights, the “Hitman” has shown improved wrestling. He was able to avoid Rick Story’s takedowns for the most part at UFC 139 and when he did end up on the ground, he was able to get back to his feet quickly. He even managed to take Story down in that fight. Kampmann will once again be facing an opponent with a strong wrestling background in Ellenberger. I expect Kampann to use his newly improved wrestling to keep the fight standing and use his best weapon, which is his pinpoint Muay Thai striking, to outpoint Ellenberger on the feet. In order to accomplish that goal, Kampmann will need to utilize quick movement to stay away from Ellenberger’s power and land quick combinations. If he can time Ellenberger’s powerful right hand, he might be able to find the range for counter striking. But all of that will be difficult to accomplish against one of the toughest tests he has faced in his career thus far.

Jake Ellenberger is a world class athlete just now coming into the prime of his career at age twenty seven. He has everything a fighter needs to be title contender in the UFC. He has one punch KO power in both hands. He has a collegiate wrestling background. He trains with a great team. He has plenty of experience. Simply put, this is his moment. A win, especially an impressive one, would give put him right in the middle of the title picture that currently features St. Pierre and Condit as well as Johnny Hendricks after his recent defeat of Josh Koscheck. Ellenberger’s last loss came against Condit in 2009 via split decision and since then, he has reeled off six consecutive wins with his most recent coming against Diego Sanchez in February. Four of those wins came via (T)KO. He has scary power in his hands and over the past year or so, he has evolved from a wrestler with power into an impressively well-rounded mixed martial artist. A lot of fighters have power but Ellenberger has honed his stand-up to a degree where he now has the technical skill to consistently land his power shots. On Saturday, he will face one of the best strikers in the welterweight division. I expect him to stand with Kampmann initially and hope to land a power shot while avoiding his opponent’s combinations. If he begins to consistently lose the exchanges on the feet, look for him to go back to his wrestling and try to put Kampmann on his back. But that won’t be easy as Kampmann is difficult to take down and has an excellent submission game once the fight hits the mat.

Ellenberger is the clear favorite in this fight at -225 with Kampann coming in at +185. I expect this fight to take place mostly on the feet and in theory, that would favor Kampmann who is the more technical striker. The problem with that is that Ellenberger is also a good striker with the power to end the fight instantaneously. Clearly, the oddsmakers give the combination of Ellenberger’s power and his potential to take the fight to the ground and control from top position the advantage in this fight and a (T)KO finish for Ellenberger seems to be the most logical outcome for this fight. But if he can’t find Kampmann’s chin, the “Hitman” could pull off the upset by using his technical Muay Thai game to earn a decision.

By Alan Wells

TUF 15 Finale Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathan Brookins In a matchup of fighters trying to establish themselves in the 145 pound division, former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins returns to the octagon to face Brazilian prodigy Charles Oliveira..

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathan Brookins

In a matchup of fighters trying to establish themselves in the 145 pound division, former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins returns to the octagon to face Brazilian prodigy Charles Oliveira. Both fighters are coming off of rebound victories in their previous appearance with Brookins defeating Vagner Rocha in February and Oliveira defeating Eric Wisely in January.

Brookins is a well rounded fighter who has shown the ability to finish with both strikes and submissions. He seems to lull opponents to sleep with his calm approach and unassuming personality. I would imagine fighters have a difficult time working up any animosity against Brookins who is one of the more humble and peaceful competitors in the UFC. But despite his personality, he has finishing instincts as he showed in his previous fight when he took out Rocha with ground and pound in the first round. Brookins seems to be confident wherever the fight goes so I expect him to stand with Oliveira until he feels threatened. If he starts to lose in the standup game, look for him to try to push Oliveira against the fence and turn the fight into a dirtier game of clinch work and scrambles. Oliveira appears to be the more talented fighter but that hasn’t stopped Brookins in the past and look for him to do whatever he can to take his young opponent out of his gameplan.

Oliveira is one of the most exciting young fighters in the UFC. He burst on to the scene at age 20 with an explosive armbar submission victory over Darren Elkins. After another victory, he lost two out of three fights against title caliber fighters Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone with a no decision against Nik Lentz due to an illegal knee sandwiched in between. I question why the UFC was putting him against that type of competition at age twenty one but it may turn out to be for the best as he has decided to move down to the featherweight division and was dominant in his first fight at that weight against Wisely. He made quick work of his overmatched opponent with a ridiculous calf slicer that most fight fans including myself had never seen used to finish a fight. This fight represents an appropriate step up in competition. He should have the advantage over Brookins wherever the fight goes but he will need to stay tight with his technique to earn the victory. Look for Oliveira to utilize his excellent striking game while being perfectly willing to display his grappling gift should Brookins decide to take the fight in that direction. Either way, Oliveira has the potential to give the fans an explosive finish.

Oliveira is a solid favorite at -200 with Brookins the underdog at +170. Oliveira has the talent advantage everywhere in this fight and I’m actually surprised the line isn’t a little more one-sided but I don’t blame the bookmakers for being wary of underestimating Brookins who has a habit of upsetting more talented opponents. Oliveira should have opportunities early against Brookins but if he doesn’t take advantage or if he gets sloppy or overconfident, Brookins can steal this fight. A longer fight benefits Brookins and if he can turn this into an ugly scrap with lots of close fighting against the cage, he might be able to grind his way to a decision.

By Alan Wells

UFC 146 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir On Saturday night, the UFC’s highly anticipated all-heavyweight card arrives headlined by a title fight between champion Junior Dos Santos and challenger Frank Mir. With the unsurprising suspension of.

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Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir

On Saturday night, the UFC’s highly anticipated all-heavyweight card arrives headlined by a title fight between champion Junior Dos Santos and challenger Frank Mir. With the unsurprising suspension of Alistair Overeem for PED use causing major upheaval to the card, Frank Mir steps in to gain another shot at being a UFC champion. Unfortunately for him, he’ll be facing someone who presents a skill set he is ill-equipped to handle.

Junior Dos Santos has been plowing through the UFC’s heavyweight division since his arrival in 2009 reeling off nine straight victories with seven of those victories being finished by KO or TKO and six of those seven finishes coming in the first round. Only the chins of Shane Carwin and Roy Nelson were able to withstand the dynamite in Dos Santos’ hands and he’ll be looking to test Mir’s chin as early as possible. Dos Santos’ strategy isn’t complicated and it doesn’t take an expert to explain it. He has as much power as anyone in the division combined with excellent quickness and agility that allows him to explode into fight finishing combinations. He throws mainly two or three punch combinations and only needs to make contact with one of those punches to earn a victory. His boxing isn’t the most technical in MMA but is incredibly effective and he will be relying on it to defend his championship at UFC 146.

Frank Mir has four wins and two losses in his last six fights with the losses being knockouts suffered at the hands Shane Carwin and Brock Lesnar. In his last fight, he was knocked down by Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera before coming back to finish with one of the most impressive submissions ever in the heavyweight division. That history does not suggest success against a fighter like Dos Santos. He is going to have to find a way to avoid his opponent’s strikes and get the fight to the ground. That will be tough to do because Dos Santos will have the quickness advantage and has shown solid takedown defense in his fights thus far. Mir’s best chance of getting this fight to the ground might be to play possum if Dos Santos lands a glancing blow and try to get the champion to follow him to the ground in an attempt to finish. If Mir can somehow get the fight to the mat, he clearly has the skills to finish and Dos Santos would be wise to avoid that scenario at all costs. Even if he scores a knockdown, Dos Santos should stay on his feet and wait for Mir to get back up before engaging again. Even a stunned Frank Mir has the skills to submit Dos Santos if he decides to play the ground game.

Junior Dos Santos comes into this fight as a huge favorite at -550 with Mir the underdog at +425. That should tell you everything you need to know about this fight. Anything other than a first round knockout by Dos Santos will be a surprise but Frank Mir has surprised us before. While a win does seem unlikely, the chaos of a fight can lead to unexpected situations and if Dos Santos finds himself on the mat with Frank Mir, this fight will get interesting instantaneously. But if it stays on the feet, Dos Santos should be able to finish his opponent and retain the championship.

Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva

In a matchup of fighters trying to rebound from a loss, former UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez takes on Strikeforce import Antonio Silva. After losing the belt in his last fight, Velasquez will be looking to take the first step toward earning the opportunity to win back his belt by defeating a tough opponent in Silva.

Silva has made a career of being one of the best heavyweights in the world who hasn’t been tested by top competition. He has impressive victories on his resume over legends Andre Arlovski and Fedor Emelianenko but both of those victories came when those fighters were clearly out of their prime. He has three wins and two losses in his last five fights with the two losses coming against Fabricio Werdum and Daniel Cormier. Based on his recent history, Silva appears to be a UFC caliber heavyweight who will struggle against the top tier of the division. But he will have a huge opportunity to prove that perception wrong when he gets the chance to fight former champion Cain Velasquez on Saturday night. With all the shuffling following Overeem’s PED suspension, Silva has moved up the card and is now preparing for the biggest fight of his career. A win over Velasquez would propel him immediately into title contention. If he wants to do that, he is going to need to keep the fight standing and hope to outstrike the former champion. Velasquez has shown a solid chin in his career but Silva has the power to test it and even finish the fight if he gets the opportunity. But while looking to strike, Silva will have to defend against some of the best takedowns in the division and that is where he is likely to struggle.

Velasquez will likely employ the strategy that won him the belt and try to put Silva on his back early and often. From there, he will look to land his unique style of ground and pound. Having already felt the belt around his waist, Velasquez will be eager to get back to the pinnacle of the sport and he will come out motivated to prove that he deserves that opportunity sooner rather than later. Before being stopped by Dos Santos in his last fight, Velasquez had run through the UFC heavyweight division beating all seven of his opponents with six of those wins coming by TKO or KO. He might not be able to finish Silva within the three rounds allotted for the fight but if he sticks to his gameplan, a definitive decision is well within his reach. The only danger he faces in this fight is if he gets caught with a big punch from Silva or somehow ends up on his back with Silva on top. But based on the significant wrestling advantage Velasquez holds going into this fight, that scenario seems highly unlikely.

As expected, Velasquez is a heavy favorite going into the fight at -400 with Silva coming in at +325. Silva will be looking to land one big punch or find his way into top position somehow and land big strikes from there in order to pull off the upset. The more likely outcome is that Velasquez controls the fight on the feet, puts Silva on his back and grinds his way to a victory. The length of the fight is likely to depend on how long Silva can withstand the onslaught he’ll face once he ends up on his back. But if Silva can put his huge right hand on the former champion’s chin, anything can happen.

Junior dos Santos Talks Nogueira and Machida Not Tapping at UFC 140 (EXCLUSIVE VIDEO)

We at MMA Fix had a chance to catch up with Junior dos Santos at a UFC 141 luncheon and ask him if Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Lyoto Machida could have tapped out in their.

We at MMA Fix had a chance to catch up with Junior dos Santos at a UFC 141 luncheon and ask him if Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Lyoto Machida could have tapped out in their losses at UFC 140 or if there was simply not enough time for them to react. He tells us there is a Brazilian saying to never tap out, and thinks it was Nogueira’s choice to suffer a broken arm, as well as Machida’s to be choked out. Junior admits he would never allow himself to get hurt on purpose rather than tap. He also gets a chance to tell about the UFC‘s newest charitable organization, It Aint Chemo, where he was able to train with children afflicted with the disease. Watch the interview below:

Twit Pic of the Week: Steve Cofield Gets Kenda Perez and Her Little Dog Too

Kenda Perez tweeted out this pic with her little killer dog, Dexter interviewing with our host, Steve Cofield. I just hope this photo convinces Cofield to get a tan. Check back next week for our.

Kenda Perez tweeted out this pic with her little killer dog, Dexter interviewing with our host, Steve Cofield. I just hope this photo convinces Cofield to get a tan.

Check back next week for our full interview with Kenda.

*Note: That dog looks innocent but it managed to kill 2 fake palm trees and take a sh*t on the floors of the ESPN radio offices.

You can follow Kenda Perez: here.