UFC 146 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson.

Roy Nelson

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson has lost three out of his last four with two of those losses coming to the fighters competing for the championship in the night’s headliner. Herman has split his two UFC fights with his loss coming to Stefan Struve, who is also competing on Saturday night’s card.

Nelson’s last several fights have mainly taken place on the feet and his main accomplishment has been proving that he is almost impossible to knock out. He took punches from Junior Dos Santos that no one else has been able to absorb. But a good chin isn’t enough to win fights and losing three out of four isn’t the way to stay in the UFC. Nelson will be fighting for his UFC life on Saturday night and fortunately for him, he will be facing a fighter he is capable of defeating. Expect Nelson to attempt to show the full range of his game on Saturday night as he should have the advantage wherever the fight takes place. Herman will have the height advantage but that’s nothing new for Nelson who will close the distance and throw power punches. Once on the inside, Nelson should look to put Herman on his back and work his submission game. Nelson is excellent from the top position and has the skill set to finish this fight early.

Herman will be looking to improve on his previous performance when he was stopped by Stefan Struve after an uninspiring eight minutes in the octagon. He looked sluggish against Struve and spent most of the fight standing still in front of his opponent eventually paying for his lack of movement by being dropped with an uppercut and finished with ground and pound. Herman is a much better fighter than he showed that night and he should be looking to prove that against Nelson. A win against Nelson would put him back on the right track while a loss would set him back significantly. He will look to keep the fight standing as he won’t want to grapple with his more accomplished opponent. Look for him to use his reach advantage and keep Nelson on the outside with jabs and kicks. If Nelson looks to close the distance, expect Herman to clinch and use his knees. The task is a difficult one but if Herman is focused, he can pull off the upset.

Nelson is favored in this fight at -225 with Herman the underdog at +185. Nelson should be able to pull out a win by outstriking Herman, putting him on his back and looking for submissions. Herman’s best hope is to keep Nelson on the outside and pick him apart with strikes. Unfortunately for Herman, Nelson is almost impossible to knock out so if he wants a victory, he’s going to have to earn it by winning a decision.

Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic

In a battle of undefeated heavyweights, former Strikeforce fighter Shane Del Rosario makes his UFC debut against Stipe Miocic who has two wins in the UFC over Joey Beltran and Philip De Fries. Despite being undefeated thus far in their careers, neither fighter has looked overwhelmingly impressive and this fight will be the biggest test either has faced.

Del Rosario won all three of his Strikeforce fights on Challengers cards over Brandon Cash, Lolohea Mahe and Lavar Johnson. He finished all three fights in the first round showing the ability to close with either strikes or submissions. None of those fighters presented a well rounded game to compete with Del Rosario’s skill set and against Miocic, he’ll be facing a more complete fighter. Miocic showed showed powerful if not technically perfect hands in his previous fight against Philip De Fries. Look for Del Rosario to start by striking with Miocic and try to take advantage of the openings he showed in that fight. But as soon as he feels threatened, expect Rosario to try to get the fight to the ground and work his submission game from the top position.

Miocic will more than likely look to keep the fight on the feet and rely on his boxing to try to earn the victory. Lavar Johnson had Del Rosario in trouble and while Miocic might not have the raw power that Johnson has, he’s more technical and could use that accuracy to finish the fight if he gets an opportunity. He will need to use his wrestling defensively in this fight to keep the fight standing. If he can use leg kicks to slow Rosario and then attack with punches, he’ll have a chance at pulling off the upset.

Del Rosario comes into this fight as the favorite at -200 with Miocic getting +170. Look for Del Rosario to strike early and use the clinch to get Miocic to the ground. Once there, he will attempt to create openings with ground and pound to attack with submissions. Miocic will be looking to do the opposite and keep the fight standing to utilize his boxing. Del Rosario should have the superior all around game and earn the victory but if he gets sloppy on his feet, Miocic could take advantage and steal the win.

Lavar Johnson vs. Stefan Struve

Saturday night’s opening fight will feature a fight that is almost guaranteed not to make it out of the first round as Lavar Johnson’s faces Stefan Struve. This is the type of fight that makes fans wonder if UFC matchmaker Joe Silva is laughing maniacally in a dark office somewhere at the potential train wreck he has set in motion. Struve has shown a propensity to leave his notoriously weak chin up in the air and Johnson has some of the most powerful punches in the division. If Johnson’s fists touch Struve’s chin, this fight will be over.

Struve is one of the most interesting fighters in the heavyweight division. At 6’11,” he is the tallest legitimate fighter in the world and he uses that height to his advantage by kicking his opponents from distances where they can’t even come close to reaching him. He has shown knockout power in his strikes and has an excellent Dutch muay thai game that he has used to finish several UFC fights. He also uses his long legs to his advantage on the ground where he can latch on to chokes from positions where fighters aren’t used to having to defend against them. His height combined with his technique provides a unique challenge for every opponent he face. His one major weakness thus far in his career has been his chin. Once fighters get inside his outrageous reach, they have been able to consistently drop him with punches. To Struve’s credit, he has survived several knockdowns and fought back to earn victories but that will not be a likely outcome on Saturday night. If he wants to defeat Johnson, he needs to avoid the striking game and get this fight to the mat quickly where he has a significant advantage. If he can do that, he should be able to finish with a submission shortly thereafter.

Lavar Johnson has scary power in his hands. He has finished his last two opponents with punches and if Struve decides to engage in a striking match, he will likely face the same fate. Johnson will look to force the issue and go after Struve early in this fight. He has a limited ground game and he will be in trouble if he finds himself grappling with Struve. Expect Johnson to be swinging for Struve’s chin from the opening bell and even if he grazes it, that could be enough to finish the fight. His goal will be to control the octagon and push Struve against the cage where he can use uppercuts and short hooks to drop his opponent and finish the fight.

The bookmakers have this fight at almost a pick ‘em with Struve favored at -125 and Johnson the “underdog” at +105. That’s exactly where the line should be because if Johnson lands a punch, the fight could be over in an instant but if Struve can get the fight to the ground, it could end just as quickly. This fight lends itself to an early finish and both fighters have a distinct route to earning the victory. The outcome will depend on whether Struve can get the fight to the ground before Johnson lands a punch.

Lavar Johnson

UFC 146 Odds: Dos Santos Favored Heavily Against Veteran Mir

Junior dos Santos will look to defend his UFC heavyweight belt for the first time this weekend as he lines up against former champion Frank Mir at UFC 146. Get MMA odds for the bout.

Junior dos Santos will look to defend his UFC heavyweight belt for the first time this weekend as he lines up against former champion Frank Mir at UFC 146. Get MMA odds for the bout before the action unfolds in Las Vegas.

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Although Mir’s UFC odds (+350) may intrigue bettors given his experience as a fighter and specifically as a UFC heavyweight title winner, there’s no denying that the younger dos Santos is the -500 favorite for a reason.

Not only has dos Santos gone unbeaten in UFC bouts since his debut in 2008, his distinct skill set lines up with one of Mir’s greatest vulnerabilities. In each of his five career losses, Mir has fallen to punches, most recently by Shane Carwin at UFC 111.

Will dos Santos, well-known as an elite-level boxer in the octagon, be able to strike his way to an early victory? Given the momentum he’s established over the course of the past few years it’s hard to see why not.

Of course, if the two end up on the ground and Mir’s experience comes into play, we may very well see the start of a surprising new reign for the MMA veteran.

Bet on UFC 146 today.
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Strikeforce (Tonight)- Crisper’s Betting Picks

Ok – keepin this one short and sweet. Like two favorites… Nah-Shon Burrrell (-260) and Rafael Cavalcante (-200). Both of these fights should end early. Lay the money tonite and add 2 units to the.

Ok – keepin this one short and sweet. Like two favorites…

Nah-Shon Burrrell (-260) and Rafael Cavalcante (-200).

Both of these fights should end early. Lay the money tonite and add 2 units to the bankroll!

Crisper

Strikeforce- Barnett vs. Cormier: Pre Fight Part I

Josh Barnett (31-5) vs. Daniel Cormier (9-0) The highly anticipated Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, which began almost a year ago meanders to an anticlimactic conclusion this Saturday, May 19th. This was an event that was.


Josh Barnett (31-5) vs. Daniel Cormier (9-0)

The highly anticipated Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, which began almost a year ago meanders to an anticlimactic conclusion this Saturday, May 19th. This was an event that was supposed to bring back the drama and spectacle of the old Pride Grand Prix’s from Japan. It started with both Fedor Emelianenko and Alistair Overeem competing along with a strong supporting cast. We were supposed to see eight of the best heavyweights in the world fight for the Strikeforce belt over three exciting events. Instead, we saw Alistair Overeem’s worst performance in years and we watched Fedor have the torch he carried for so long ripped from his hands. This was not what we expected. But as one legend is pushed out of the sport, we may be seeing the arrival of a new star. And before he can be officially established as a top heavyweight in the world, he has one more veteran to dispatch.

Saturday’s main event between Daniel Cormier and Josh Barnett is more about Cormier than Barnett. Despite the fact that Cormier is only one year younger than Barnett, he feels like an up and comer while Barnett feels like a grizzled veteran. And in MMA terms, those would be accurate descriptions. Barnett has been competing for fifteen years and has fought in every major organization over his polarizing career. Barnett has had multiple PED and licensing issues but has been clean thus far in his Strikeforce run. His game is a known entity. He’s well-rounded with solid striking and high level submission grappling. His catch wrestling is different than the typical Brazillian Jiu-Jitsu grappling most fighters employ and can be problematic for those who haven’t faced it. But given Cormier’s Olympic background, it seems unlikely that Barnett will be able to get him to the ground. More than likely, this fight will take place on the feet. And if that’s the case, both fighters will be working the less established aspect of their game.

Cormier’s game is less of a known entity than Barnett’s and his skill set is still growing significantly between fights. With only nine fights, Cormier is far less experienced than Barnett but he has shown flashes of athleticism and explosiveness that could pose serious problems for his more established opponent. With his first fight coming at age thirty after a distinguished wrestling career featuring multiple Olympic appearances, many people questioned whether Cormier would be able to develop an MMA skill set quickly enough to have a major impact in the sport. His surprising knockout of the granite-chinned Antonio Silva in his last fight suggested that he may be progressing more quickly than expected. A similar performance against Barnett would thrust Cormier into the upper echelon of the heavyweight division but a decision victory is much more likely than a finish. The only fighters to finish Barnett in his storied career are Mirko Cro-Cop and Pedro Rizzo. If Cormier adds his name to that list, the rest of the heavyweight division will have to take notice.

The bookmakers have this fight listed as basically a pick ‘em with Barnett at -120 and Cormier at -110. That seems appropriate considering that we will likely be looking at a striking match between two fighters who prefer to be on the ground. Based on the growth arc displayed by Cormier over his last few fights, I have to think that he’s going to come out and show us even more than his has in the past. If that’s the case, I expect that he’ll be a little too much for Barnett to handle. However, if Barnett can use his significant reach advantage to keep Cormier on the outside, we could see the end of Cormier’s undefeated record. Barnett will need to use kicks and jabs to keep Cormier from closing the distance and using the power punches he showed against Silva. With such a clear advantage in terms of submission skill on the ground, Barnett should be able to kick freely and that will be the key for him. So while this isn’t the fight we expected to see when this Grand Prix was announced, we will definitely learn something about the future of the heavyweight division.

UFC on Fuel TV 3 – The Crisper’s Betting Recap

Man that Korean Zombie really f’d up what was looking like a great betting night in the UFC. Here is a recap of the bets and results: TJ Grant (-460) – This one was like.

Man that Korean Zombie really f’d up what was looking like a great betting night in the UFC. Here is a recap of the bets and results:

TJ Grant (-460) – This one was like takin candy from a baby ….Grant took control from the onset and dominated all phases. It’s nice when you’re laying so much to never really feel nervous at any point during the fight. PUT ONE IN THE COOKIE JAR!….. + 1 unit.

Donald Cerrone (-250)– Cowboy uses his reach advantage to completely outclass a good fighter in Lil Heathen Stephens. Stephens couldn’t even play dead in a western on this night. He had no chance and Cerrone never let him breath, give the Crisper another one!…… + 2 units.

Jorge Lopez (+110) – Just read Alan Wells’ recap on this fight in UFC on Fuel Random Thoughts. We got SCREWED by the judges and I am none to happy about it. Cost us money. Bullshit. Anyway….take a half a unit and stick it up the judges asses……+1.5 units

Dustin Poirier (-325) – All I can say is, when you lay on a big favorite and he gets his ass kicked, for the betting man it feels like getting your nuts kicked in. Korean Zombie took it to our boy, and there was really never a doubt. It looked like Poirier started to turn a corner in the 3rd by establishing his jab, but Zombie turned the tables and finished him off. That result completely ruined our night giving back 3.25 units……-1.75 units

This brings our total on posted picks to -1.025 units. Check back this weekend for Crisper Picks on Strikeforce Saturday night May 19th!

UFC on Fuel TV 3- Post-Fight Recap

With his victory over Dustin Poirier last night at UFC on Fuel TV 3, Chan Sung Jung established himself as an elite fighter in the 135 pound division.  He didn’t turn the fight into an.


With his victory over Dustin Poirier last night at UFC on Fuel TV 3, Chan Sung Jung established himself as an elite fighter in the 135 pound division.  He didn’t turn the fight into an impossible to score brawl.  He didn’t catch Poirier with an early punch.  He was clearly the better fighter from the opening bell until the fourth round when he finished with a D’arce choke after dropping Poirier with an uppercut followed by a flying knee.  Poirier did well with his jab and may have won the third round with it but Jung was always the more dangerous fighter and never seemed to be in any danger.  The only weakness Jung showed was in his stamina as he appeared to tire toward the end of the third round.  He mentioned before the fight that he struggled with the weight cut.  He and his team will need to figure out a way to improve on that process to allow him to maximize his stamina for five round fights in the future.  But aside from that, his performance makes it impossible to consider him as anything other than one of the top featherweights in the world.  The win puts him no more than one fight away from a title shot and at the moment, he looks to be one of the few fighters in the division willing to face Jose Aldo.  Jung now has consecutive victories over top ten featherweights in Mark Hominick and Poirier and adding that to his entertainment value and marketability makes him the most likely candidate to face Aldo, provided he defeats Eric Koch at UFC 149 in July.  
 
Donald Cerrone didn’t have to prove that he was one of the best in the world in his weight class because we already knew he was.  But he did remind us just in case we had forgotten by dominating Jeremy Stephens for fifteen minutes.  By the second round, Cerrone seemed to be playing with Stephens and treating the fight more like a sparring match.  He used his kicks to maintain his reach advantage and Stephens was never able to close the distance enough to land punches.  Cerrone repeatedly battered his opponent with punching combinations punctuated with brutal leg kicks.  By the third round, he was even able to land a knockdown with a low kick.  Stephens hung in the fight and continued to throw punches, which if they landed, could have done some damage.  But he couldn’t get inside Cerrone’s reach and often led himself into counter knees to the body.  Cerrone belongs in the title discussion but with Benson Henderson and Frankie Edgar scheduled to fight in August and Nate Diaz already next in line, Cerrone is going to have to continue to fight through the absurd gauntlet of the UFC lightweight division if he wants a shot at the belt.
 
In other action on the card, Amir Sadollah earned a win with a questionable split decision over Jorge Lopez.  Neither fighter was overly impressive and both had chances to assert themselves and earn a clear victory.  Because they did not, the judges were left with a difficult fight to score and in that scenario, the fighters have only themselves to blame if they lose.  Lopez won the first round and Sadollah the second with the third being the round in question.  Two of the judges gave it to Sadollah based on his striking in the middle of the round and that was enough to earn him the win.  Despite the win, Sadollah will need to bring more to the cage in his next fight if he hopes to fulfill his promise as an Ultimate Fighter winner.
 
Yves Jabouin dominated Jeff Hougland and did everything except finish the fight.  Hougland showed a strong heart and could have allowed the fight to be stopped multiple times but forced to Jabouin to earn the stoppage, which Jabouin was unable to do.  Jabouin dropped Hougland in the first round with a spinning back kick to the body but was unable to finish.  He repeated the feat in the third round with a left hand to the jaw but once again, Hougland fought through and got back to his feet.  Basically, Jabouin did exactly what one would expect from him when facing an overmatched opponent.
 
In the slugfest of the night, Igor Pokrajac defeated Fabio Maldonado via unanimous decision.  Pokrajac showed growth building on his knockout of Krzysztof Soszynski.  He made the fight competitive on the feet landing knees from the clinch and punches on the outside.  When necessary, he mixed in takedowns and controlled Maldonado on the ground.  Had he simply taken Maldonado down and kept the fight on the ground, the fight would not have been nearly as close.  His willingness to stand with a professional boxer could have cost him the fight but he managed to absorb the punishment and earn the victory.
 
In the main card opener, Tom Lawlor knocked out Jason MacDonald early in the first round.  Both fighters started aggressively with MacDonald shooting for a takedown.  Lawlor stuffed it and landed a left hand to the chin, a right to the temple, another right on the ground and the fight was over.  The knockout gave Lawlor a much needed win and an opportunity to build some momentum going forward.
 
– Alan Wells