Tag: MMA Picks

Demian Maia  vs.  Rick Story

Most people are in agreement that Maia has the advantage in this fight. Story’s wrestling is his greatest attribute, but against Maia, he won’t be able to effectively use it. Maia is an expert at countering strong wrestlers with his Jiu-Jitsu as he’s demonstrated in his fights with Mark Munoz, Dan Miller, and most impressively, Chael Sonnen. Maia’s Jiu-Jitsu will be even more effective due to him having quite the size advantage over Story after dropping to welterweight. Maia looked outstanding in his welterweight debut, and his weight cut should be even easier now. If Maia has the same aggressive pace like he did against Dong Hyun Kim, then Maia will get Story down early and submit him in no time, but if Story is somehow able to take Maia down, Maia will have no problem sweeping him, or could just as easily secure a triangle. No matter how this fight plays out, Maia will outclass Story either on the feet or on the ground. Whether it’s over quick or goes into deep waters, Maia will sooner or later pull off a submission.

Phil Davis  vs.  Wagner Prado

Davis had a bit more trouble against Prado in their first fight than expected. Although the fight didn’t last very long, Davis was clearly backpedaling and on the defensive until the accidental eye poke. After all the criticism of Davis’ performance, he’s probably put together a better game plan with his team. This time around, he won’t wait so long before going on the offensive and use his wrestling to put Prado in some compromising positions. Prado has nothing to lose and will once again come out fast and aggressive, looking to end this fight early, but if the Davis who beat Alexander Gustafsson, Tim Boetsch, and Antonio Nogueira shows up, he shouldn’t have a problem taking Prado down and beating him all three rounds. It’s possible that Davis could end the fight with a submission, but it’s more likely that it will go the distance.

Erick Silva  vs.  Jon Fitch

This is by far the hardest fight on the card to predict, I can see either one of these fighters emerging as the victor. There’s no question that if this fight ends early, Fitch will be the one on the losing end. Although his fight with Carlo Prater was ruled a disqualification loss, he has finished his last four opponents in the first round, three off them taking and average time of only forty five seconds. With that being said, Fitch could just as easily take Silva down and control him for all three rounds. Love or hate his grinding style, it’s extremely effective. Fitch has one heck of a chin that will help him get this fight into the later rounds where he could have an advantage, seeing most of Silva’s fights end rather quickly. I’m giving the edge to Fitch simply because Charlie Brenneman was able to get Silva down on more than one occasion in their fight, and Fitch is bigger, stronger, and a better wrestler than Brenneman. Silva is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, so I doubt that Fitch will be able to submit him, but I will pick him to win a decision.

Glover Teixeira  vs.  Fabio Maldonado

This may be a little premature, but I think Teixeira could challenge for the title with a couple more fights under his belt. Teixeira is a well-rounded fighter who isn’t afraid to let the fight go anywhere. Even though he’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who has competed in multiple Jiu-Jitsu tournaments, he has more wins by knockout than he does by submission. Maldonado is a former boxer with a perfect 22-0 record, with twenty one of those wins by knockout. There’s no question that is boxing is excellent, but as we’ve seen in his fight with Igor Pokrajac, he is vulnerable in the clinch, and easily susceptible to takedowns. This will give Teixeira a huge advantage as he looks to take Maldonado down and dominate him on the ground. Maldonado will be in defense mode as he desperately tries to avoid Teixeira’s ground and pound, it’ll only be a matter of time until Teixeira finds an opening and is able pull off a submission.

Antonio Nogueira  vs.  Dave Herman

This is a bad match up for Herman, the Jiu-Jitsu advantage clearly is in the favor of Nogueira, but it’s not too obscure to think that Nogueira also will have the striking advantage. People forget how good of a striker Nogueira is because he is such a decorated Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, but his striking has gotten the better of Randy Couture, Brendan Schuab, and Frank Mir, before Mir was able to counter with a submission. Herman on the other hand has been out struck by Roy Nelson, Stefan Struve and John-Olav Einemo, until Einemo gassed and Herman was able to take over. I doubt he will look to stand with Herman, but if he can’t get the takedown, he will be more than capable of handling himself on the feet. Eventually, Nogueira should be able to get Herman to the ground and prove that Jiu-Jitsu isn’t “magic” by submitting him.

Anderson Silva  vs.  Stephan Bonnar

As much as I enjoy a real life Rocky story, I don’t see it happening. Bonnar does have the ability to hold Silva down and possibly submit him, but in order to do that, Bonnar needs to get Silva to the ground, and I don’t see him doing that. Silva is to fast and nimble on the feet to be susceptible to Bonnar’s takedowns. If Bonnar was on the same wrestling level as Chael Sonnen, than maybe he’d have a fighting chance, but unfortunately for him, he isn’t. Bonnar can certainly take massive amounts of punishment and still be in the fight, but Silva has knocked out plenty of fighters who have had a reputation of just that. It’s only a matter of time before Silva catches Bonnar and puts him away.

 

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

Rony “Jason”  vs.  Sam Sicilia

This has “Fight of the Night” written all over it. Neither fighter is scared of a dogfight, and they both have the tendency to move forward at all times during their fights. The clear power advantage goes to Sicilia, at such a light weight class, his one punch knockout ability goes unrivaled. There’s always that chance that it could be nighty night, for Jason, but I don’t see this fight ending early due to Jason’s ability to take punishment, and still come forward. In the end, it will be Jason’s more well-rounded style that will give him an edge. Sicilia hasn’t displayed much more than just his heavy hands, no kicks and no Jiu-Jitsu. Jason will have a six inch reach advantage over Sicilia, and no one knows how Sicilia’s cut to featherweight will affect his performance. Jason simply has too many advantages for him not to find a way to overcome the punching power of Sicilia, and win this fight by decision.

Gleison Tibau  vs.  Fransisco Trinaldo

In only his second fight in the UFC, Trinaldo draws an elite contender in Tibau. I doesn’t take a genius to realize that Tibau has nearly every advantage in this fight, size, height, reach, grappling, and experience. This is just a golden opportunity that is coming a little too early for Trinaldo, he’s just not ready yet for an opponent at Tibau’s skill level. Tibau will use his wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu to overpower Trinaldo and look to finish with his famous guillotine choke.

Diego Brandao  vs.  Joey Gambino

In his last fight, Gambino fell victim to Steven Siler and was caught in a guillotine choke. Why he’s now being matched up with the faster, more skillful Brandao, is far beyond my comprehension. Gambino can’t match Brandao’s Jiu-Jitsu, and Brandao has the better striking. This should be an easy win for Brandao, and if he doesn’t finish Gambino, he’ll certainly take all three rounds to win a unanimous decision.

Sergio Moraes  vs.  Renee Forte

The predictions on this fight are split nearly 50/50. I can see why, both have the same amount of experience, and have wins by both knockout and submission. What makes me lean towards Moraes, is that he has the grappling advantage, but he also went toe to toe with Cezar Ferreira, an excellent striker, and gave him a run for money. Forte may have better striking than Moraes, but he is no Cezar Ferreira. Moraes will be able to hold his own on the feet, and will eventually get the Forte to the ground where he will submit him.

Luis Cane  vs.  Chris Camozzi

To be blunt, I’m just not impressed with Camozzi. His last four wins were either by split decision, against a semi-talented UFC newbie, or stopped because of a cut after he was clearly losing the fight. Cane is used to fighting bigger opponents at light heavyweight, and he has faced a higher level of competition than Camozzi, taking on Cyrille Diabate, Antonio Nogueira, and Sokoudjou. Camozzi will not be able to avoid the heavy strikes and the takedowns of Cane, and he will fall victim to either a knockout or submission. My money is on the knockout.

Cristiano Marcello  vs.  Reza Madadi

The majority of Madadi’s wins are by submission, but now he’s facing an elite Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, so this may be the first time we see him look to keep the fight standing. It would be a mistake for Madadi to challenge Marcello on the ground, so his best chance would be to try and knock him out on the feet. The fighters that give Marcello a tough time, are those with excellent striking and footwork, a skill Madadi doesn’t possess. Madadi might have a slight striking advantage, but it won’t be enough to stop Marcello from clinching with him, and then getting a takedown. From there, Marcello will easily take whatever submission Madadi gives him.

 

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

Demian Maia  vs.  Rick Story

Most people are in agreement that Maia has the advantage in this fight. Story’s wrestling is his greatest attribute, but against Maia, he won’t be able to effectively use it. Maia is an expert at countering strong wrestlers with his Jiu-Jitsu as he’s demonstrated in his fights with Mark Munoz, Dan Miller, and most impressively, Chael Sonnen. Maia’s Jiu-Jitsu will be even more effective due to him having quite the size advantage over Story after dropping to welterweight. Maia looked outstanding in his welterweight debut, and his weight cut should be even easier now. If Maia has the same aggressive pace like he did against Dong Hyun Kim, then Maia will get Story down early and submit him in no time, but if Story is somehow able to take Maia down, Maia will have no problem sweeping him, or could just as easily secure a triangle. No matter how this fight plays out, Maia will outclass Story either on the feet or on the ground. Whether it’s over quick or goes into deep waters, Maia will sooner or later pull off a submission.

Phil Davis  vs.  Wagner Prado

Davis had a bit more trouble against Prado in their first fight than expected. Although the fight didn’t last very long, Davis was clearly backpedaling and on the defensive until the accidental eye poke. After all the criticism of Davis’ performance, he’s probably put together a better game plan with his team. This time around, he won’t wait so long before going on the offensive and use his wrestling to put Prado in some compromising positions. Prado has nothing to lose and will once again come out fast and aggressive, looking to end this fight early, but if the Davis who beat Alexander Gustafsson, Tim Boetsch, and Antonio Nogueira shows up, he shouldn’t have a problem taking Prado down and beating him all three rounds. It’s possible that Davis could end the fight with a submission, but it’s more likely that it will go the distance.

Erick Silva  vs.  Jon Fitch

This is by far the hardest fight on the card to predict, I can see either one of these fighters emerging as the victor. There’s no question that if this fight ends early, Fitch will be the one on the losing end. Although his fight with Carlo Prater was ruled a disqualification loss, he has finished his last four opponents in the first round, three off them taking and average time of only forty five seconds. With that being said, Fitch could just as easily take Silva down and control him for all three rounds. Love or hate his grinding style, it’s extremely effective. Fitch has one heck of a chin that will help him get this fight into the later rounds where he could have an advantage, seeing most of Silva’s fights end rather quickly. I’m giving the edge to Fitch simply because Charlie Brenneman was able to get Silva down on more than one occasion in their fight, and Fitch is bigger, stronger, and a better wrestler than Brenneman. Silva is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, so I doubt that Fitch will be able to submit him, but I will pick him to win a decision.

Glover Teixeira  vs.  Fabio Maldonado

This may be a little premature, but I think Teixeira could challenge for the title with a couple more fights under his belt. Teixeira is a well-rounded fighter who isn’t afraid to let the fight go anywhere. Even though he’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who has competed in multiple Jiu-Jitsu tournaments, he has more wins by knockout than he does by submission. Maldonado is a former boxer with a perfect 22-0 record, with twenty one of those wins by knockout. There’s no question that is boxing is excellent, but as we’ve seen in his fight with Igor Pokrajac, he is vulnerable in the clinch, and easily susceptible to takedowns. This will give Teixeira a huge advantage as he looks to take Maldonado down and dominate him on the ground. Maldonado will be in defense mode as he desperately tries to avoid Teixeira’s ground and pound, it’ll only be a matter of time until Teixeira finds an opening and is able pull off a submission.

Antonio Nogueira  vs.  Dave Herman

This is a bad match up for Herman, the Jiu-Jitsu advantage clearly is in the favor of Nogueira, but it’s not too obscure to think that Nogueira also will have the striking advantage. People forget how good of a striker Nogueira is because he is such a decorated Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, but his striking has gotten the better of Randy Couture, Brendan Schuab, and Frank Mir, before Mir was able to counter with a submission. Herman on the other hand has been out struck by Roy Nelson, Stefan Struve and John-Olav Einemo, until Einemo gassed and Herman was able to take over. I doubt he will look to stand with Herman, but if he can’t get the takedown, he will be more than capable of handling himself on the feet. Eventually, Nogueira should be able to get Herman to the ground and prove that Jiu-Jitsu isn’t “magic” by submitting him.

Anderson Silva  vs.  Stephan Bonnar

As much as I enjoy a real life Rocky story, I don’t see it happening. Bonnar does have the ability to hold Silva down and possibly submit him, but in order to do that, Bonnar needs to get Silva to the ground, and I don’t see him doing that. Silva is to fast and nimble on the feet to be susceptible to Bonnar’s takedowns. If Bonnar was on the same wrestling level as Chael Sonnen, than maybe he’d have a fighting chance, but unfortunately for him, he isn’t. Bonnar can certainly take massive amounts of punishment and still be in the fight, but Silva has knocked out plenty of fighters who have had a reputation of just that. It’s only a matter of time before Silva catches Bonnar and puts him away.

 

Written by :  Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

 

Travis Browne  vs.  Antonio Silva

In the majority of Browne‘s fights, he is usually the heavier fighter with the longer reach, but it’s Silva who will have both advantages in this fight. Silva, a judo and jiu-jitsu black belt, is a phenom on the ground, so Browne should do everything in his power to avoid Silva’s attempts to take the fight there. Browne’s only chance is to come out fast and catch Silva with an early knockout, however, Silva and is also a black belt in karate and has skilled muay thai strikingis more than capable of handling himself on the feet as well. Eventually Silva will get the fight down to the ground and get Browne in a compromising position. He always has a good chance of submitting Browne, but most of his wins are by knockout/TKO via ground and pound. If Silva was able to stop Mike Kyle and Fedor Emelianenko, I have the utmost confidence that Silva can do the same to Browne.

Prediction : Silva via TKO

Jake Ellenberger  vs.   Jay Hieron

If it wasn’t for the fact that Hieron defeated Ellenberger six years ago, in a bout outside the UFC, nobody would care about this fight. Not only has Ellenberger developed into an elite athlete and one of the best welterweights in the world, but what has Hieron done to earn a fight with Ellenberger? Yes, he’s beating some bigger names in other MMA organizations, but how does that earn anyone a shot against a top ten welterweight? It would’ve made more sense to match Ellenberger with either Mike Pierce or Aaron Simpson, and have Hieron fill a slot on the preliminary card. It’s ridiculous to think that Hieron is co-main event material. I don’t see Ellenberger loosing two fights in a row, especially to Hieron. Don’t get me wrong, Hieron has skills and is a good stiker, but not on the level he needs to be to give Ellenberger a run for his money. Martin Kampmann is arguably the best pure striker in the welterweight division, and even he collapsed under the power of Ellenberger in the opening seconds of the fight. Kampmann was able to turn things around in the second round, but Ellenberger won’t give Hieron the opportunity to do the same. The Juggernaut will be able to use his elite wrestling and throw Hieron around like a rag doll and use his big power to put Hieron away.

Prediction : Ellenberger via TKO

John Dodson  vs.  Jussier da Silva

Silva may be the former #1 ranked flyweight in the world, but he’s at a disadvantage in this fight with Dodson. For maybe the first time in his career, Dodson will have the size advantage. This will make it that much harder for Silva to get Dodson to the ground, which is the only way Silva has even the slightest chance of getting his hand raised. Dodson has excellent takedown defense, so Silva will have to literally drag Dodson to the ground to pose any sort of threat. However, with the size and speed advantage in the favor of Dodson, he’ll have no problem avoiding Silva takedown attempts, especially if he was able to avoid the takedown attempts of a great wrestler like TJ Dillashaw. Winning the striking battle will be a walk in the park for Dodson since he won’t be battling a large reach disadvantage that he faced in his last fight with Tim Elliott. Dodson will pick Silva apart on the feet, and when Silva becomes overly frustrated when his takedown attempts are unsuccessful, Dodson will push the pace and look the finish the fight.

Prediction: Dodson via KO

Justin Edwards  vs.  Josh Neer

The fact that this fight is on the main card completely baffles me. This fight should’ve been swapped out with one of the preliminary fights, it just doesn’t make sense. This fight doesn’t require a great deal of research. Neer has better striking, more experience, and has fought opponents at a higher skill level. Both Edwards and Neer are purple belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but I’d even give the grappling advantage to Neer, based solely on his ability to hold his own against high level jiu-jitsu fighters like Nate Diaz and Gleison Tibau. If Edwards is able to take Neer down, Neer has a very underrated and active guard that has caught UFC veterans Melvin Guillard and Mac Danzig. People who are picking Edwards to beat Neer are simply hoping for an upset and I don’t see it happening.

Prediction: Neer via TKO

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@fightfreek