Tag: My Picks

Tonight’s UFC 129 – St. Pierre VS Shields takes place at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.  This will be the biggest MMA card in North American history, and the UFC is doing what they can to make every last one of the 50,000+ in attendance goes home happy.  Tonight’s card will feature two championship fights when Canada’s native son Georges St. Pierre puts his belt on the like against one of his toughest opponents to date in Jake Shields and Brazilian phenom Jose Aldo defends his UFC Featherweight belt against Canada’s own brilliant striker Mark Hominick.

This is going to be an action packed, star studded card from top to bottom.  In addition to a ton of name value and what looks to be several barn burners happening in the great white north, there are many solid betting opportunities.  Specifically, many of the UFC 129 preliminary fights offer sports bettors some very reasonable chances at making some money tonight.  Before placing your bets, make sure to have a look at MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 129 Pros’ Picks.  Here are my Best Bets for tonight’s card…and there are more than a few!

Also, allow me to personally thank Olieng once again for the awesome self-made UFC 129 poster.  Whenever he (or she…or they…I don’t know what kind of operation they run over there) puts up a custom MMA poster on the site, MMAMoneyLine will absolutely give it the credit and exposure it deserves!

George St. Pierre/Jose Aldo/Lyoto Machida – MMAMoneyLine (Parlay on BetUS)

I will be starting my Best Bets off with a pretty low risk parlay.  I am as unbiased of an MMA fan as there is and give both Jake Shields and Mark Hominick the respect they deserve, but Georges St. Pierre is, in my opinion, the best mixed martial artist on Earth right now and Jose Aldo might be just that in a couple of years.

Nothing about St. Pierre’s past performances tell me he will lose to Jake Shields.  Nothing about Georges St. Pierre’s skill set versus that of Jake Shields tells me that Georges St. Pierre will lose to Jake Shields.  Many people rave about Shields’ BJJ game (and rightfully so), but St. Pierre has fought BJ Penn twice.  St. Pierre has evolved his game to a point where he can win with wrestling or striking.  I don’t think Shields will find much success taking St. Pierre down, getting him to the ground in a clinch, or even pulling guard or catching a trip.  Over five rounds, there is a pretty good chance that Shields will get GSP to the ground once or twice, but it is no cakewalk from there.  St. Pierre has fought the best wrestlers in the division and dominated them.  He has fought some of the best strikers in the division and dominated them.  Although St. Pierre is a little short on victories over top level BJJ players, Shields still poses very little threat to the champ.

Shields is not known for having a good striking repertoire, is fighting one of the best wrestlers in MMA, is coming off a horrible debut in the UFC, and will be fighting in front of one of the most hostile audiences in MMA history.  Shields needs to pull of the perfect fight to win, and if he does then it will go down as an absolutely remarkable upset.

Moving on to the Aldo/Hominick scrap.  This one is pretty cut and dry:  Hominick is touted as the more technical striker, but he is fighting probably the most devastating 155 lb. and below striker in MMA.  Although Hominick is far from the lame duck on the ground that he was early in his career, Aldo is a BJJ black belt.  When it comes down to it, Hominick is a lesser version of Jose Aldo.  I haven’t seen any chinks in Aldo’s armor yet, and I believe he’s faced tougher competition than Hominick and was dominant.

In the former UFC Light Heavyweight champion versus former UFC Light Heavyweight champion contest, the Machida/Couture fight is probably the least certain pick in this parlay, and that is saying something.  I hate picking against Randy Couture.  Randy Couture has made a career off of making people like me look like I don’t know an arm bar from an open bar.  The man has one of the greatest resumes in MMA and has made his name late in his career by beating men he had no business beating.

I also hate picking Lyoto Machida.  The Machida hype-train was in full effect not too long ago after he blew through Sokoudjou, Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva, and Rashad Evans.  However, he has looked ineffective in his last three fights going 1-2 (0-3 to many) against Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson.  Much like MLB pitcher Hideo Nomo a few years into his career, it seems as though Machida has been figured out after an astronomical entrance into the UFC.

Regardless of my personal experience and beliefs pertaining to Couture and Machida, this fight comes down to logic.  Couture is at the end of his career and is 3-2 in his last 5 fights (a win coming against a boxer, Mark Coleman, and Brandon Vera…a fight he should have lost).  Although Machida is no Brock Lesnar, he does have the tools to beat Couture.  Machida’s movement makes him hard to take down (refer to the Tito Ortiz fight).  Machida will also have a distinct advantage on the feet.  If Machida can keep off his back, which is likely due to his excellent movement and footwork, and stay out of the clinch with Couture, which is also likely because he is a smart fighter, it leaves Couture with a very slim margin in which to implement his game plan.

In Randy’s farewell fight, I wouldn’t even be mad if he blew up my parlay here.  I give Couture more of a chance than most, but I still cannot pick him against a bad stylistic match up like this.  A St. Pierre, Aldo, and Machida parlay should pad your bankroll and cover you on some of your more risky bets.

Rory MacDonald – MMAMoneyLine (-115 on Bodog)

Although they get a good amount of criticism from the MMA blogosphere, I think Sherdog’s Jason Probst has a very accurate writeup of the Rory MacDonald/Nate Diaz fight.  Since I agree on most of his points, I have no problem posting a credit link to another website.  We all know the story with the Diaz boys:  annoyingly effective striking, world class grappling, iron chins, breathtaking cardio, and unshakable confidence.  However, Nate Diaz is not Nick Diaz.  We’ve seen him get soundly beaten before, particularly by strong wrestlers like Dong Hyun Kim, Gray Maynard, Joe Stevenson, and Clay Guida.  Conversely, we’ve also seen Diaz stifle accomplished strikers like Rory Markham, Marcus Davis, and Melvin Guillard.

So what’s with this MacDonald pick?  Well, apparently I am not the only one with this mindset seeing as the lines shifted all the way to the Canadian being the favorite tonight.  MacDonald is dangerous to Diaz because of the way he is able to synthesize all of the aspects of MMA into one impressive package.  I’m not going to say Rory has the striking of Melvin Guillard, the wrestling of Gray Maynard, and the jits of Hermes Franca, but he is dangerous everywhere.  Diaz has mostly beaten guys who have had holes in their game that the opportunistic Californian exploited.

MacDonald is the new breed of mixed martial artist in that he has extensive experience in all disciplines.  He also has the advantage (in this fight) of being aggressive, fearless, and perhaps even a bit reckless.  MacDonald will respect Diaz’s game, but he won’t be afraid of it.  I don’t think Diaz will outclass MacDonald standing, and MacDonald will get Diaz to the ground several times.  It is going to be a close fight, but Diaz doesn’t always do well against the aggressor.  I fully expect Rory MacDonald to push the pace in this fight in front of his fellow countrymen and keep the pressure on Diaz for as long as the fight lasts.  If there is a finish in this fight, it will be a Diaz sub off his back.  Besides that, I like MacDonald taking either a decision or a TKO victory from ground and pound.  The Carlos Condit fight proved to me, even in a loss, that this kid belongs.

Daniel Roberts – MMAMoneyLine (+110 on BetDSI)

I honestly have no idea why Daniel Roberts is the underdog here.  When I start with that line, it is obvious who my BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet is for tonight’s UFC 129 card (although he is only a slight underdog).  I suppose if you go the “both guys are good grapplers, so it will cancel out and come down to the better striker” route, Claude Patrick gets a small nod in the stand up department.  However, this fight will get to the ground where it will be emphatically decided.  Patrick is not a good enough striker to keep Roberts at bay, and if Patrick does go for the takedown he is outclassed on the mat (if he even gets it there with Roberts’ solid take down defense).  The smart fight is for Patrick to try to win this with his striking, which is asking too much of him.  I have little doubt that Roberts will be able to deal with some strikes en route to a take down.  Once Roberts is on top of Patrick, Ninja will use his exemplary grappling to end this one after an entertaining battle on the mat.

Yves Jabouin – MMAMoneyLine (+210 on BetDSI)

I was an instant Yves Jabouin fan after his fight against Mark Hominick at WEC 49.  Jabouin, even in a loss, dazzled everyone in attendance as well as everyone watching at home with his dynamic striking.  If he was in a kickboxing contest against Pablo Garza, it would be an easy pick.  However, this is MMA and as the odds indicate, is also a pretty competitive contest.

Although Garza is fresh off a highlight reel flying knee KO against Fredson Paixao, he is still a wrestler first.  I don’t want to use the “this fight is a classing grappler versus striker contest” line, but that pretty much sums it up.  If this fight takes place standing, Jabouin will be able to do whatever he wants to Garza.  If Garza plants the Canadian on his back, Yves will have an uphill battle for as long as he is looking up at the lights.

Looking a little bit deeper into this fight, a few things stand out to me.  First off, Jabouin hasn’t lost to many grapplers even though he is looked at as one dimensional.  He lost against Jonathan Brookins, a very talented fighter who made Jabouin submit with elbows.  He also lost a close decision to Raphael Assuncao, a fight in which Assuncao resorted to a late trip and rally in the end of the fight to pull out the split decision.  Secondly, Jabouin’s takedown defense was stellar in the Assuncao fight.  When he was taken down, it was by a very well timed trip from a very wily mixed martial artist.  I don’t think Garza has the grappling of Jonathan Brookins or the grappling creativity of Raphael Assuncao…and I am well aware that some people aren’t going to agree with that.  Lastly, Jabouin has a few advantages (although they may seem fairly trivial) in that he is fighting in front of a home crowd and he has faced better competition.

I think Jabouin will stuff a few of Garza’s takedowns and punish Garza on the feet.  My prediction is that Jabouin will get to Garza before Garza gets to him, and he will do it in spectacular fashion with an ironically well placed knee KO.

**Note:  I will also be making bets on Vladimir Matyushenko and Charlie Valencia.  Although I like bets on both fighters at their current odds, I think the four aforementioned bets are higher quality wagers.  In addition, the Valencia pick is too risky for me to recommend (I will risk my own money before telling others to risk theirs).  Also, I had a wager on Jake Ellenberger when his line was much more lucrative.  However, I cannot recommend him with as much confidence in value at his current line.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

St. Pierre/UD

Aldo/TKO/2

Matyushenko/SD

Machida/UD

Bocek/SD

MacDonald/TKO/3

Ellenberger/TKO/1

Roberts/SUB/1

Valencia/UD

Jensen/UD

Makdessi/KO/1

Jabouin/KO/1

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

St. Pierre/Aldo/Machida – 2 u. on BetUS

Ellenberger – 1 u. at -175 on BetUS

MacDonald – 1 u. at -110 on BetDSI

Matyushenko -1 u. at EVEN on BetUS

Roberts – 4 u. at +110 on BetDSI

Jabouin -2 u. at -140 on Bodog

Valencia – 1 u. at +165 on BetDSI

Strikeforce – Diaz VS Daley goes down tonight in Nick Diaz’s back yard of San Diego, California.  Two Strikeforce straps will be up for grabs as Nick Diaz takes on dynamite fisted Paul Daley for the Welterweight championship and Gilbert Melendez squares off against Tatsuya Kawajiri for the Lightweight belt.

I’m going to keep this writeup short and sweet because, to be perfectly honest, there isn’t a whole lot to say about this card.  Make sure to check out MMAMoneyLine’s Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Daley odds and Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Daley Pros’ Picks before throwing your hard earned money down!

Nick Diaz/Gilbert Melendez/Gegard Mousasi – MMAMoneyLine (-225/-225/-420 on BetUS)

The smart play for tonight’s card is a parlay with Nick Diaz, Gilbert Melendez, and Gegard Mousasi.  I’ve put a fair amount of thought into each of these fights and keep coming to the same conclusion:  the favorites and going to win and may very well be undervalued.

The dynamic Nick Diaz is facing a one trick pony in Paul Daley.  Can Daley’s one trick put Diaz asleep early?  Absolutely.  However, Diaz has very good boxing and is one of the toughest fighters in MMA.  In the mental aspect of the fight, Diaz has a huge advantage.  The UFC buyout of Strikeforce is probably the worst thing that could have happened to Paul Daley’s career.  Now, Daley’s boss is Dana White…a promoter who cut Daley after his cheap shot on Josh Koscheck and vowed never to have the Brit back in the Octagon.  Since the announcement, Daley has been all over Twitter bitchin’ up a storm over his precarious position.  On the flip side, Diaz has a ton of momentum, is a guy the UFC would love to have, and is fighting in/near his hometown in Southern California.  Diaz is a no brainer here to me under -250.

To be blunt, it is going to be hard for anyone to beat Gilbert Melendez.  He has shown fans everything:  wrestling, striking, toughness, resilience, stamina, consistency, etc.  I have a ton of respect for Kawajiri, but I’m still not sold on the quality of Japanese crossover talent.  Many American mixed martial artists who enjoy a strong wrestling base are able to stifle the Japanese MMA style and this point has been proven over and over again.  No reason it should be any different here, and anything better than -250 is a very good line for Melendez.

Aaaaaaand Gegard Mousasi versus Keith Jardine.  Jardine has pulled rabbits out of his hat before against Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell, but I think he might be all out of surprises.  Everyone has caught on to his unconventional style, and Mousasi will simply outclass the former UFC Light Heavyweight tonight.

Go with a Diaz/Melendez/Mousasi parlay for tonight’s Strikeforce event…it is the best play.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Diaz/SUB/4

Melendez/UD

Beerbohm/SD

Mousasi/TKO/2

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Diaz/Melendez/Mousasi – 2 u. on BetUS

UFC 128 – Shogun VS. Jones takes place Saturday, March 19 in Newark, NJ.  The main event features UFC Light Heavyweight champion and PRIDE superstar Mauricio “Shogun” Rua defending his title against the up and coming Jon Jones.  Rua was originally set to face former 205 champ Rashad Evans, but Jones filled his teammates spot after “Suga” was forced to pull out with an injury.

Also appearing on the UFC 128 card will be former WEC Featherweight champion Urijah Faber squaring off against Eddie Wineland.  In addition, fan favorite and former PRIDE monster Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic will look to maintain relevancy against the streaking Brendan Schaub.

I will give a quick rundown of what I believe are the best betting opportunities on Saturday’s card.  Make sure to check out MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 128 odds to stay up to date on the current lines, as well as MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 129 Pros’ Picks to see where some very intelligent MMA minds stand.  Enjoy the fights!

Jon Jones – MMAMoneyLine (-180 on Sportsbook)

I thought a Rua/Evans fight would be a tough call.  Honestly (and sorry PRIDE fans), I’d be pretty surprised if Shogun can get the better of the young and hungry Jon Jones this weekend.  I have the utmost respect for Mauricio Rua, and believe he truly can beat any 205er in the world.  With that being said, I’d gladly take Jon Jones over any Light Heavyweight anywhere…if Fedor dropped to 205 I’d take Bones.

Jon Jones is an impressive physical specimen, first and foremost.  He has an inhuman reach, is strong as an ox, and is as explosive as any mixed martial artist I’ve seen in a while.  His striking lacks polish, but he throws the kitchen sink at every opponent he faces.  Possibly the best thing going for Bones is that he has the balls to use some of these strikes at this level of competition.  Striking aside, Jones is an accomplished wrestler who has been able to cut through the likes of Vladimir Matyushenko, Jake O’Brien, Matt Hamill, Brandon Vera, and Ryan Bader with ease.

The only questions about Jones’ game that haven’t been answered are how his stamina holds up and if he can take a punch (or kick).  Jones’ stamina looked fine against a tough as nails Stephan Bonnar in 2009, and Greg Jackson isn’t exactly known as a coach who doesn’t prepare his fighters for 3 rounds.  Concerning his chin….we don’t know.  However, I feel comfortable saying someone with his youth, structure, and determination can weather a storm or two.  Don’t get me wrong…not many people will be able to withstand a clean shot from Shogun.

Mauricio Rua has looked fantastic in his last two fights against Lyoto Machida.  Those fights went a long way in dispelling his awful fights against Forrest Griffin and Mark Coleman.  We know what we are going to get from Shogun…and for those calling out a submission win for the champ, please stop.  It’s not going to happen.  Truth be told, Lyoto Machida and Quinton Jackson are both overrated in my opinion.  The Machida fight was a good matchup for Shogun.  I think his latest victory has put his stock up higher than it should be.

From where I sit, Jones will be able to outwork, out muscle, and out grapple Rua.  If Rua lands a strong strike, it could be all over.  Besides that, his only shot at winning is literally hanging dozens of damaging leg kicks on Jones.  Jones is Brock Lesnar in this fight….but Shogun Rua isn’t Cain Velasquez, he’s Randy Couture.  Jones either drops Rua with a strike or takes him down and uses his violent ground and pound to put this puppy to bed in the late first or early second round…I’ll go second.

The kid is going to be champ for a while.  The only thing that stands in his way of a title run is his mental state:  can he take stress, constant criticism, Rashad Evans nonsense, and the big spotlight?  He hasn’t reacted well to it thus far in my opinion.

Brendan Schaub – MMAMoneyLine (-240 on Sportsbook)

A guy wearing a PRIDE shirt is probably deleting MMAMoneyLine from his favorites as we speak.  Guys…Cro Cop is done.  He has been done for a while.  He was one of my favorite fighters when he was in Japan and it was a glorious day when I saw the “Cro Cop coming to the UFC” graphic a few years ago.  However, you have to look at these kind of situations with your brain instead of your heart.  Cro Cop was able to beat Pat Barry who broke pretty much every bone one needs to win a fight, Anthony Perosh who was brought in on ten minutes notice and literally has no striking ability, and Mostapha al Turk who lost mostly because of an eye poke.

Brendan Schaub, on the other hand, was able to utterly dominate Gabriel Gonzaga (who knocked Filipovic out).  I’m not going to sit here and insult your intelligence by saying the victories over Chris Tuchscherer and Chase Gormley are of the “quality win” variety, but the kid has potential.  He has a good build, reliable stamina, solid striking, and good grappling.  Besides his skill set, Schaub has exactly what intangibles he needs to beat a guy like Cro Cop.  He is young and hungry, humble yet not in awe of the legend, and confident in himself.

Schaub will outwork Cro Cop on the feet because Mirko has been slow to pull the trigger in every fight save Anthony Perosh.  Schaub will connect in the 2nd round and put the legend away.  If Mirko pulls this out, I will be celebrating as it would be a great story.  But I’m not gonna lie guys, I think it’s a stretch.  Schaub anywhere better than -300 is a gift.

Kurt Pellegrino – MMAMoneyLine (+130 on BetDSI)

I always liked Kurt Pellegrino.  He is a fighter of the Clay Guida mold:  a guy who doesn’t have all the skill in the world but constantly pulls out victories due to his toughness, work rate, and determination.  Although he dropped a close decision to George Sotiropoulos in July 2010, he looked fantastic against one of the fastest rising Lightweights in the UFC.  He will be giving a marked size advantage to Gleison Tibau, who is one of the biggest if not the biggest 155er in the division.

Tibau is a very well rounded fighter:  high level BJJ, impressive wrestling, and good striking.  It is worth noting that he is very inconsistent and doesn’t have the best top control in the world.  Like Pellegrino, he has faced some stiff competition in the UFC Lightweight division, so experience will not be a factor in this fight.

On paper, Tibau looks like he can out muscle and out grapple Pellegrino.  In reality, Pellegrino is going to get the better of the striking exchanges and be very difficult to hold down.  I don’t expect Pellegrino to quit until the last bell rings.  I see this fight going to a close decision with the underdog Pellegrino edging Tibau due to better striking and being more active.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Jones/TKO/2

Faber/SUB/1

Shalorus/UD

Marquardt/SUB/2

Schaub/TKO/ 3

Cane/UD

Barboza/KO/1

Almeida/SD

Pellegrino/SD

Benavidez/SUB/1

Koch/UD

Catone/UD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Penn – 1.5 u. at +170 on BetDSI

Jones – 2 u. at

Schaub – 2 u. at

Pellegrino – .5 u. at

Shalourus – .5 u. at

Strikeforce/MI Global – Fedor VS. Silva takes place tonight in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  This event kicks off Strikeforce’s 2011 Heavyweight Grand Prix (as indicated by the image above).  The main event will feature the greatest fighter in mixed martial arts history, Fedor Emelianenko, against the surging Brazilian Antonio Silva.  The co main event pits former UFC Heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski against a very tough veteran in Sergei Kharitonov.

I’m not going to lie, I am in kind of a pinch time wise.  My brother and I will be traveling to New Jersey to catch the show tonight, and we are leaving in about a half hour.  My picks will be short and to the point.  Check ‘em out, take a look at the Strikeforce/MI Global – Fedor VS. Silva Pros’ Picks and stay updated on the current lines.  Enjoy the fights tonight!

Valentijn Overeem – Mike Hammersmith (-150 on Sportsbook)

The older but far less impressive Overeem takes to the Strikeforce cage, as Valentijn Overeem faces K-1 legend Ray Sefo. While newer fans have been wowed by Alistair Overeem’s climb to the top, older fans will remember when he was merely a young light heavyweight living in the shadow of his brother Valentijn. Much better known as a grappler than a kickboxer, Valentijn was most famous for two costly missteps in his MMA career; Being ankle locked by Igor Vovchancyn while hunting for an ankle lock himself, and having Gary Goodridge power out of an armbar and knock him out. Older and having experienced the same “diet” as Alistair, Valentijn comes into this fight as a monster heavyweight and will look to crush veteran kickboxer Ray Sefo.

With all kickboxers turned MMA fighters, this one comes down to the grappler, and this is where Sefo loses this fight. Overeem may not be world-class, but he’s capable of takedowns and submissions from top, which will be too much for the novice grappler in Sefo to handle. Getting (insert odds here) on Overeem is a steal, and his unimpressive record seems to be keeping this number a slow climber.  None-the-less, hit this number heavy, as Overeem easily defeats Sefo inside the first round.

Andrei Arlovski – MMAMoneyLine (+103 on SportBet)

Arlovski’s achilles heel has always been his chin.  It has shown itself suspect in his post UFC career.  However, the former champ took several hard shots from Antonio Silva in his most recent loss; a fight which proved that Arlovski’s chin may be the source of a bit of exaggeration.  Sergei Kharitonov is a very tough fighter who has been in the ring or cage with the who’s who of Japanese MMA.  However, he has been fairly inactive over the past few years.  Although Arlovski is far from a world beater at this stage in his career, his losses have come to some very good fighters in Emelianenko, Silva, and Rogers.  I still think the Pitbull’s boxing is very good and his grappling and Sambo skills are underrated.  Arlovski takes this in a decision

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Emelianenko/TKO/2

Arlovski/UD

Del Rosario/UD

Overeem/SUB/1

Villante/KO/1

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Villante – 2.5 u. at -165 on BetDSI

Arlovski – 1 u. at EVEN on Bodog

UFC 126 – Silva VS. Belfort takes place Saturday, February 5, 2011 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in “The Meadows”, Nevada.  The main event features one of the pound for pound best mixed martial artists in the world and UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva defending his belt against highly touted Vitor Belfort.  The Light Heavyweights will also be in action as former UFC champions Forrest Griffin and Rich Franklin fight for title contention and undefeated* rising superstars Jon Jones and Ryan Bader square off for a spot at the top of the 205 lb. heap.  Another notable dynamic of UFC 126 is that two very impressive Japanese fighters in Michihiro Omigawa and Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto return and debut respectively to the friendly confines of the UFC Octagon.

Although this weekend’s Super Bowl is the biggest game in town for sports bettors, UFC 126 looks to be an action heavy card.  With a strong belief in Vitor Belfort and Jon Jones upsets, a close line between Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin, and improving lines for the aforementioned Omigawa and Yamamoto, both casual and hard core MMA fans and bettors will be surely partaking in this weekend’s cage-related endeavors.

As always, my colleague Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive and I will be dishing out our betting recommendations for Saturday’s UFC 126.  Before you bet, make sure to stay current on line shopping at MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 126 Odds page and also check out MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 126 Pros’ Picks.  So without further adieu…

Anderson Silva – Mike Hammersmith (-220 on BetUS)

While no one can sell a fight like Chael Sonnen, the UFC is pushing Vitor Belfort as the most dangerous striker Anderson Silva has ever faced; generating huge anticipation for this fight. While Belfort is a fairly dangerous fighter in his own right, there are several factors that must be considered here.

While Belfort’s power and hand speed are certainly impressive, his list of victims in today’s MMA world are not. Also consider that Belfort’s ground game is far below the bar in the UFC, and you have a situation where Belfort needs a decisive KO against someone known for their solid chin and bottom game BJJ. A decent first round will turn into a downward spiral for Belfort, as Silva batters him methodically, leading to a late TKO stoppage or lopsided decision win, setting up one half of GSP vs Silva.

Forrest Griffin – Mike Hammersmith (+143 on SportBet)

It’s hard to imagine two guys who have taken more punishment in the cage than Forrest Griffin and Rich Franklin. With neither guy making it out of a fight with at least a nasty facial laceration, both men step into the cage young in real years, but old in fight years, with a lot of wear and tear between them. With Griffin having sat out all of 2010 with a shoulder injury, and Franklin famously getting his arm kicked in half in Chuck Liddell‘s swan song fight, it’s going to be interesting to see where each man’s confidence and conditioning lay.

While Franklin is undoubtedly the better technical striker of the two, Griffin comes into this bout with a high-level of conditioning and a great deal of size over Franklin, who will need to work his boxing and precision footwork to get one over on Griffin. A fight plan like that requires a young man’s reflexes and legs, and with the distinct lack of grace displayed against Chuck Liddell, I think it’s safe to say that Franklin’s best days are behind him. In an ultra violent bout, Griffin does just enough to take a split decision win over Franklin in another instant classic.

Gabe Ruediger – Mike Hammersmith (+170 on Bodog)

A sleeper fight of the night, the fast-paced stand-up of Paul Taylor will clash with Gabe Ruediger’s underrated BJJ game. As with all Taylor fights, his heart and pace are never in question, but his ability to keep off the mat and/or finish opponents is. Ruediger is hardly a world-beater at this level, but Taylor’s continued lack of take down defense will seal the deal for him here. Look for a surprisingly exciting fight, but one where Ruediger is able to hustle Taylor on the mat on his way to a decision win.

Forrest Griffin – MMAMoneyLine (+130 on BetDSI)

I dropped a tough one in my Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Cyborg BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet.  I felt good about Robbie Lawler in the first round, but he had nothing for Souza‘s relentless take downs and top control.  Oh well…them’s the chances you take when betting on the ‘dogs.  After much deliberation, my BetDSI Ultimate Underdog pick for UFC 126 is former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin.

The Forrest Griffin/Rich Franklin fight is a coin flip…plain and simple.  The former Middleweight champion and Light Heavyweight title holder have many similarities besides being two of the most recognizable and likable fighters under the Zuffa banner.  Both fighters are well rounded, battle tested, and willing to engage.  Griffin will have a size and strength advantage, which will serve him well in the clinch.  Franklin has the edge in punching power, reflected in his fights against the likes of Chuck Liddell, Ken Shamrock, and Nate Quarry.  Griffin and Franklin’s serviceable wrestling skills and underrated Brazilian Jiu Jitsu will likely make those aspects a wash.  The conditioning of both fighters will also not be in question.

I see this fight being three rounds of kickboxing and clinch work.  Both guys have immense respect for one another and will likely spend the first round engaging in the feeling out process.  The only plausible way this fight sees a finish is a Franklin knockout, which is definitely possible.  However, Forrest Griffin utilizing the clinch against his smaller foe could just as easily lead to a unanimous decision win for the former Ultimate Fighter champion.

This writeup is pretty much a long winded way of saying “this fight is 50/50″.  The current odds are around -170 Franklin/+140 Griffin.  I’m taking the numbers here and going with Griffin in a very close fight.

Paul Taylor – MMAMoneyLine (-200 on BetCRIS/Bookmaker)

Many knowledgeable MMA people think Saturday’s fight between Paul Taylor and Gabe Ruediger will be an entertaining mix up between two skilled Lightweights.  While I am not disagreeing, I think it will be less competitive fight than most believe.  Let’s look a little deeper at Ruediger’s last 6 victories before his loss to Joe Lauzon.  In this span, Ruediger won 5 fights via submission and 1 fight via technical knockout.  While a 6 fight win streak is impressive, you have to look at the level of competition.  The losing fighters in Ruediger’s 6 fight win streak have hardly faced top level competition, and have a collective 15 submission losses out of 24 total defeats.  Take out Wander Braga and Joe Lauzon’s records, the total record of Gabe’s recent competition is an unimpressive 28-23 (not to mention one fighter has a 0-1 record).

In Taylor, you have a fighter who has 8 fights inside the Octagon against top level competition like Sam Stout, John Hathaway, and Chris Lytle.  Although Taylor’s 3-5 UFC record is far from impressive, he has only been stopped by Marcus Davis in a submission loss.  In it worth noting that Taylor rocked Davis before getting caught in an uber-impressive armbar.

All statistics aside, Ruediger will look to use his submission acumen against a foe who is very hard to tap.  If Gabe doesn’t have his submission game to go to, he is ineffective.  Taylor has proven effective against wrestlers like Peter Sobotta, so Ruediger’s take downs shouldn’t give him too much of a problem.  Taylor will have a large edge in the striking portion of this fight, which will be the decider.  I expect Taylor to outpoint and outwork Ruediger while avoid his take down attempts en route to a decisive unanimous decision.  Taylor at -200 is a good line to me.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Silva/TKO/3

Griffin/SD

Jones/TKO/2

Torres/SUB/2

Ellenberger/UD

Cerrone/SUB/3

Mendes/UD

Taylor/UD

Johnson/UD

Kingsbury/SD

Pierce/UD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Griffin – 1.5 u. at +130 on BetDSI

Taylor – 2 u. at -185 on Bookmaker

Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Cyborg takes place Saturday, January 29th on Strikeforce’s home turf of Southern California.  This event boasts two title fights, as Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz and Middleweight king Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza defend their straps against Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos and Robbie Lawler respectively.  Also appearing on the card are former NFL great Herschel Walker, the world renown grappler Roger Gracie, and journeyman Trevor Prangley.

Odds are up for eight fights total:  the four main card fights and four under card scraps.  Although I do have some background on the eight fighters on the under card who have betting lines, I am staying away from them.  Some hardcore MMA fans may see a betting edge in one of these fights, but I cannot justify gambling on a Strikeforce under card fight.  If you have an edge and want to exploit it, then by all means go for it!

As for the main card, each fight represents a seemingly overwhelming styles clash.  Diaz versus Santos is technical points boxing and BJJ versus aggressive Muay Thai; Jacare Souza versus Robbie Lawler represents world class BJJ and improving striking versus knockout power and a solid chin; Roger Gracie versus Trevor Prangley pits another world class BJJ player and underrated striker against a jack of all trades type of fighter.  I’m not even going to get into the Walker/Carson fight, as this pits a guy who was set up to win against a guy who was called up to lose.

In the end, this card is very unpredictable.  The four main card fights could go exactly as odds makers planned:  Diaz via unanimous decision, Souza via submission, Gracie via submission, and Walker via who cares.  However, there is also a possibility that Cyborg catches Diaz, Lawler beats Jacare to the punch, and Prangley exposes Gracie as a novice mixed martial artist.  This is a high risk/high reward card, and any MMA bettor should think thoroughly before coming to any conclusion (especially a conclusion that leads to a wager).

As always, here are myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive‘s Best Bets for tomorrow’s Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Cyborg card.  Make sure to check out MMAMoneyLine’s Pros’ Picks for tomorrow’s event as well.  Lastly, I will be introducing a new dynamic to MMAMoneyLine’s Best Bets, which you will see further down.  Best of luck on your wagers and enjoy the fights!

Nick Diaz – Mike Hammersmith (-155 on BetDSI/Bookmaker/BetCRIS)

This fight has potential to be one of the most brutal outings of all time, as both men have tremendous chins, thin skin, and are willing to trade shots all day long. It’s the cardio department that separate both men though, as Diaz is a world-class athlete, and able to go hard for 5 rounds, while Cyborg has been known to gas in pitched battles. An even scrap becomes a one-sided beating, as Diaz puts combinations together against a flagging Santos, sealing the deal in the 3rd round.

Roger Gracie – MMAMoneyLine (-155 on BetDSI/Bookmaker/BetCRIS)

Robbie Lawler – MMAMoneyLine (+200 on BetDSI)

Starting with this card, a new feature will be displayed on MMAMoneyLine. The BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet will be instituted in MMAMoneyLine’s Best Bets section for the foreseeable future (don’t worry, a flashy graphic is in the works!).  BetDSI was kind enough to give MMAMoneyLine $1,000 to play around with, and I am using these funds with a “go big or go broke” mentality.  I will use this money to bet on the most valuable underdog of each event.  This doesn’t mean I will simply bet on the fighter with the longest odds, but instead place a wager on the loftiest ‘dog who has a legitimate chance to win and, therefore, a large line discrepancy.  I will track the success/failure of my BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet throughout 2011 and run down the statistics at the end of the year.  I welcome everyone to visit BetDSI, a book that is rated A+ by SportsBookReview and very MMA friendly.  My inaugural BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet will be “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler.

So why Robbie Lawler.  What makes me think that Lawler will leave San Jose as the new Strikeforce Middleweight champion?  Here is my rationale.  While Jacare cut his teeth stateside with wins over Joey Villasenor, Tim Kennedy, and Matt Lindland, I believe he has yet to fight a guy with the knockout power of Lawler.  Lawler’s game poses a pretty hefty threat to Jacare:  he has proven knockout power, is very tough, and has underrated take down defense.

There has been a lot of rumbling on the MMA blogs and news sites about Jacare’s plan to take Lawler down and submit him.  Robbie Lawler will be a tough test for Souza’s wrestling ability, and has the power to really make him pay for trying.  In the Lawler/Sobral fight, Lawler was landing the more significant shots and lost a close decision partially because of slipping in the first round.  Sobral also had very little luck getting Lawler to the mat.

If I had to put a percentage on this fight, I would say Souza wins this fight a little over 50% of the time…perhaps 11 or 12 times out of 20.  Conservatively, if he wins this fight 12 times out of 20, that gives Souza a 60% chance of winning (a -150 line).  Conversely, if Lawler wins this fight 40% of the time his line translates to +150.  Right now, Lawler’s best odds are in the +200 range, a pretty sizable discrepancy.  I believe Lawler is a live dog because of his knockout power, take down defense, and toughness, and I am willing to play the numbers on this one.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Diaz/UD

Lawler/TKO/3

Walker/TKO/1

Gracie/SUB/2

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Gracie – 2 u. at -155 on BetDSI

Lawler – 2 u. at +200 on BetDSI