Pat Barry | UFC Betting Sites - The Best MMA Online Bookies

The Cut List: Who’s in Desperate Need of a Win at UFC on FX?

The frantic pace of UFC events and the multitude of FOX-owned cable networks on which to show those events has at least one upside: more fights means a greater demand for fighters. In turn, that might mean that some of the pressure to win, win, win jus…

The UFC is still in the business of rewarding winners and jettisoning losers. As we’ve seen lately, there is a place for guys who put on a good show even in defeat. It’s just still unclear what that place is. The UFC might need guys to fill out these FX and FUEL TV fight cards, but it’s not as if there’s a shortage of MMA fighters who want a shot in the big leagues. When in doubt, it’s best to win and keep your neck off the chopping block.

So who needs a victory in a bad, bad way on Friday night’s UFC on FX card, and what are their chances of getting it? For answers, we turn to the Cut List.

More: UFC on FX Fight Card | UFC on FX Results

Pat Barry (6-4, 3-4 UFC)
Who he’s facing: Christian Morecraft
Why he’s in danger: First off, let me say that I like Barry. I like him as a person, and I enjoy watching him fight. This is his eighth fight in the UFC, and he’s yet to have a boring or even mediocre one. That said, Pat Barry needs to win. He’s lost two straight, and three of his last four. This trend simply cannot continue much longer. The tough part is, it’s not like he’s getting outclassed. He had Cheick Kongo all but knocked out before that one slipped away, and he seemed to be well on his way to beating Cro Cop before he broke almost every bone that he needed for that fight. I know every fighter has to deal with his share of bad luck now and then, but the way Barry’s career has been going I’m started to suspect he hit a gypsy with his car or built his gym on top of an Indian burial ground. The good news is, he’s well liked by fans and has the guns-a-blazing style that the UFC loves. It seems like just about everybody wants him to be successful, and how could you not? Just read this, this, and this, and then try and tell me he’s not the most down-to-earth, self-aware fighter in the UFC. But if you’re going to stay in the UFC, you have to win some fights. Eventually even the nice guys run out of second chances.
Outlook: Cautiously optimistic. He should beat Morecraft, who has a size but not a skill advantage over him. Even if he doesn’t, I predict at least one more go-round for Barry. He’s too much fun to have around for the UFC to cast him out before it absolutely has to.

Jorge Rivera (18-9, 7-7 UFC)
Who he’s facing: Eric Schafer
Why he’s in danger: Rivera had the best run of his UFC career in 2009/10, beating a trio of guys who have since left the organization to seek their fortunes elsewhere. His current two-fight skid began with the TKO loss to Michael Bisping, which you could argue was a very raw deal in many respects, then continued with a split decision loss to Constantinos Philippou. That rough stretch has dropped him from co-main event territory to the prelim portion of a Friday night fight card. Where’s the next stop if he can’t halt his fall there? The 39-year-old Rivera would probably rather not find out.
Outlook: Hopeful, but fading fast. It’s Rivera’s age more than his record that gives one pause. He’ll be 40 next month, and his is not a fighting style that tends to age well. Maybe he can beat Schafer, but even then, how much time is left on the clock? Rivera’s a good dude and a tough fighter, but no one gets to do this forever.

Eric Schafer (12-6-2, 3-5 UFC)
Who he’s facing: Jorge Rivera
Why he’s in danger: If you’re like me, you reacted to the news of this pairing by shouting out loud, ‘Hold up, Eric Schafer’s still in the UFC?!’ Then, when the grouchy librarian came over to tell you that you had to either be quiet or leave, you used your remaining seven minutes of internet time to research Schafer’s recent career stats in search of an answer. Turns out he’s been victorious just three times in his eight trips inside the Octagon, and all three of those opponents were booted from the UFC immediately after losing to him. Granted, Houston Alexander was later brought back for a fight with Kimbo Slice, but that doesn’t change the fact that, thus far in his MMA career, Schafer has been the guy who helps the UFC decide if you should be fired or not. Don’t get me wrong, there’s a place for that. But what happens when that guy loses? Better yet, what happens when that guy hasn’t won a fight in the UFC in three years, and the last person he beat in the Octagon then went on to lose five of his next seven in the smaller shows? The last time Schafer lost two in a row, he got cut. Then he won one fight outside the UFC before coming back to lose to Aaron Simpson at the start of his current stay. If he can’t beat Rivera, that’s another two-fight skid for Schafer. He’s been around this sport long enough to know what that would mean for his career.
Outlook: Grim. Look, this is a winnable, though by no means easy fight for him. What it definitely isn’t is a losable fight. Not if he wants to stick around.

Daniel Roberts (12-3, 3-3 UFC)
Who he’s facing: Charlie Brenneman
Why he’s in danger: Roberts got off to a rough start in the UFC with a brutal KO loss to John Howard, but then he rebounded with three straight victories — two by submission. That led to a step up in competition, which in turn led to some hard times for Mr. Roberts. After losing back-to-back decisions to Claude Patrick and Rich Attonito, he now finds himself just one loss away from the dreaded three-fight skid. The worst part is, not many people expect him to win this one. Brenneman is a 3-1 favorite according to most oddsmakers, and the bout itself is stuck in the middle of the FUEL TV prelims. With his 3-3 mark in the organization, this bout feels like a fork in the road for Roberts, who has some genuine talent. You just wonder if he’s good enough to stay at this level. You also wonder how many chances the UFC will give him to prove it.
Outlook: Slightly pessimistic. Brenneman is a tough draw for a guy in Roberts’ shoes, but that’s life in the UFC. As long as he’s upright and conscious, he’s got a chance to pull off the upset and turn this thing around. If he doesn’t, he might be headed straight off a cliff.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC on FX Edition

(I got blood on my hands and there’s no remorse, I got blood on my…well, you get the point.)

We’ll be completely honest, folks, it has been awhile since the official CagePotato Parlay has shown us a return worth getting excited about, or any return for that matter. Bill collectors were ignored, drugs were peddled, and we even had to turn a trick or two to solve our gambling debts, but as they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. Last week, we actually managed to end up in the green, so what better opportunity to keep the ball rolling than the UFC’s debut on FX tomorrow? Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our advice below.

Main Card
Pat Barry (-165) vs. Christian Morecraft (+145)
Mike Easton (-340) vs. Jared Papazian (+280)
Duane Ludwig (-110) vs. Josh Neer (-110)
Jim Miller (-170) vs. Melvin Guillard (+150)

Undercard
Nick Denis (-240) vs. Joseph Sandoval (+200)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Pat Schilling (EV)
Fabricio Camoes (-325) vs. Tom Hayden (+265)
Kamal Shalorus (-135) vs. Habib Nurmagomedov (+115)
Charlie Brenneman (-300) vs. Daniel Roberts (+250)
Eric Schafer (-155) vs. Jorge Rivera (+135)

Thoughts…

(I got blood on my hands and there’s no remorse, I got blood on my…well, you get the point.)

We’ll be completely honest, folks, it has been awhile since the official CagePotato Parlay has shown us a return worth getting excited about, or any return for that matter. Bill collectors were ignored, drugs were peddled, and we even had to turn a trick or two to solve our gambling debts. But as they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. Last week, we actually managed to end up in the green, so what better opportunity to keep the ball rolling than the UFC’s debut on FX tomorrow? Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our advice below.

Main Card
Pat Barry (-165) vs. Christian Morecraft (+145)
Mike Easton (-340) vs. Jared Papazian (+280)
Duane Ludwig (-110) vs. Josh Neer (-110)
Jim Miller (-170) vs. Melvin Guillard (+150)

Thoughts…

The Main Event: Here’s what we know; Melvin Guillard may just be the hardest hitting 155er in the UFC, and has greatly improved his takedown defense over the years. What we also know is that Melvin recently decided to leave the team responsible for his recent success to join a camp that allowed Anthony Johnson to show up twelve pounds overweight at the UFC 142 weigh-ins. Oh yeah, and he doesn’t exactly have a ground game worth bragging about, and against a Jiu-Jitsu ace like Miller, that spells trouble.

On the contrary, Jim Miller is a smart, well rounded fighter who has been impossible to knock out thus far in his career. Is that saying Melvin can’t knock him out? Well, allow us to answer that question with a question; did anyone expect Guillard to steamroll Evan Dunham like he did? That being said, Miller is the worst kind of match-up for Guillard, and he should be able to snatch up a submission within three rounds.

The Good Dogs: Off the bat, Jorge Rivera looks good at +135. Though he’s dropped two straight, he’s got some serious power in his punches, and is facing a consistent UFC under-performer in Eric Schafer. This one really depends on whether or not “Red” can get it to the mat; if Jorge can stick-and-move, he’s got this one. Another name that stands out is one you probably won’t recognize, Habib Nurmagomedov. The man is 16-0 with an even KO to submission ratio, and is facing a toguh but flawed fighter in Kamal Shalorus. “The Price of Persia” has not fought since being TKO’ed by Jim Miller nearly a year ago, and though he may have some big league experience on “The Nurm” (official CP nickname), he also has some HUGE holes in his stand up game.

Also, several other gambling sites have Josh Neer listed as a slight underdog to Duane Ludwig at the moment, which could net you a small profit with a lone bet. Neer has a much better ground game, an arguably better gas tank, and only been stopped by strikes once in his career. Placing a small bet on “The Dentist” doesn’t seem like a terrible idea, but keep that one away from your parlay.

Tread Lightly: When placing your bet on Pat Barry. Don’t get us wrong, if Stefan Struve and Matt Mitrione were able to stop Christian Morecraft in the fashion they did, then “HD” should by all means have his way with him. But anyone who possesses a basic submission knowledge poses a threat to Barry *cough* Tim Hague, anyone?* We still like him to win, but aren’t going to bet the house on this one. He makes a nice addition to a parlay though.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Miller + Easton + Barry + Denis

100 bucks nets you $367.65 in return. Now, let’s all hold hands and pray to our collective Gods that we don’t have to pay another visit to Big Tim after this one.

-Danga

Once Again, Pat Barry Is Looking to Kill or Be Killed

(Props: YouTube.com/UFC)

With two consecutive stoppage losses against Cheick Kongo and Stefan Struve, and a 3-4 record in the UFC overall, Pat Barry truly needs to get his shit together tomorrow night in Nashville. He and Christian Morecraft will be slugging it out in the opening bout of UFC on FX 1‘s main card, and a third loss could spell the end of Barry’s UFC contract.

Or maybe not. UFC president Dana White has long been a fan of Barry’s “Hype or Die” style, and records don’t matter to Barry anyway. As he told MMAJunkie:

(Props: YouTube.com/UFC)

Or maybe not. UFC president Dana White has long been a fan of Barry’s “Hype or Die” style, and records don’t matter to Barry anyway. As he told MMAJunkie:

“Coming off two losses is no different than coming off two wins, in my opinion…The sport has evolved nowadays to where it’s not just about fighting any more. We’re entertainers. We’re athletes first, but we’re entertainers along with being athletes. So we’ve got to be able to fight, and we’ve got to be able to perform. I can throw a jab and run from anybody. But who wants to see that?…I come into put on a show. It’s ‘HD.’ Either I’m killing people, or I’m getting killed. I’m going to lose better than anybody if I do.”

We’ll give it to Pat; he definitely loses better than anybody.

UFC on FX: By the Odds

Filed under: UFCThe UFC heads to Nashville this Friday night for a fight card that makes up for with easy accessibility what it lacks in star power. Sure, maybe we’re not talking about the biggest names here, and maybe the big(ger) names on the card ar…

Filed under: UFC

The UFC heads to Nashville this Friday night for a fight card that makes up for with easy accessibility what it lacks in star power. Sure, maybe we’re not talking about the biggest names here, and maybe the big(ger) names on the card are mostly coming off losses, but what do you expect for a Friday night on FX?

At least oddsmakers still care enough to handicap the action, and at least I still care enough to see if I can’t make them pay for it.

Jim Miller (-180) vs. Melvin Guillard (+150)

When you talk about this fight, you’re going to end up comparing losses. There’s just no way around it. You take two lightweight contenders who had their respective rises suddenly and violently halted, and it’s only natural that we’d go back and try to sort through whose loss was worse, and what it means now. Miller had a pretty thorough beating put him on by Ben Henderson, but now that Henderson’s getting set to challenge for the lightweight title that doesn’t look so bad. Guillard, on the other hand, lost a shocker to Joe Lauzon after getting dropped and then choked early in the first round. It’s a longer fall, quality of opponent-wise, but it does have a bit of a fluke-ish quality to it, which you can attribute to Guillard’s reckless overconfidence. You know, if you really want to.

This is what makes picking a winner in this fight so difficult. You can kind of talk yourself into anything. It’s a little surprising to see Miller this much of a favorite, but then you think about his ground game, his seven-fight win streak prior to the Henderson loss, and it makes sense. And Guillard? Guillard has the allure of pure ability. The promise of speed and power and an athletic ability that even he can’t help but overestimate at times. Guillard seems like the kind of guy who can beat anybody when things fall his way, but also like the kind of guy who could lose to anybody and at any given moment. It’s not hard to imagine him knocking Miller out with a flying knee, nor is it difficult to picture him missing that same flying knee, landing on his end, and getting submitted seconds later. It all depends on what you want to tell yourself.
My pick: Miller. Unlike Guillard, he never beats himself. In a fight like this, don’t be surprised if that turns out to be enough.

More: UFC on FX Fight Card | UFC on FX Results

Duane Ludwig (-115) vs Josh Neer (-115)

Right off I’ll say it: I’m surprised at this line. I would have thought that Ludwig would have been the clear favorite and Neer the obvious underdog. That’s not meant as a knock on Neer, who still does a few things very well and for whom toughness is never a question. But Ludwig seems to be undergoing a sort of mini-Renaissance lately. He seems more at home in the welterweight division than he ever was in the lightweight class, and he’s sharpened his defensive wrestling skills to the point where his kickboxing is even more of a problem for opponents. As long as he’s fully healthy, it’s hard for me to see how Neer wins this. At one point, oddsmakers agreed. He was up in the +120 range until the money started to flow in, but it’s not like his chances have really improved since then. He still deserves to be a slight underdog against Ludwig. It’s just that, if you jump on it now, you won’t get anywhere near the value out of him.
My pick: Ludwig. I wouldn’t say it’s a lock, but I would say this is his fight to lose. If he plays it smart, he ought to pick Neer apart on the feet for as long as it takes.

Mike Easton (-400) vs. Jared Papazian (+300)

You can always tell that the odds are going to be heavily in one guy’s favor when his opponent doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page yet. Maybe it was Wednesday’s Wikipedia protest blackout, or maybe the denizens of the internet just don’t care enough about a UFC newcomer until he actually does something in the Octagon. Either way we’re looking at another bantamweight bout that oddsmakers expect Mike Easton to win and win easily. That makes sense. Easton’s had a pretty charmed career up until this point, while Papazian has been up and down, winning some and losing some against the knowns and unknowns alike. Papazian does have a three-fight win streak going, which has to count for something. Then again, those are three wins over guys most fans probably never heard of. The UFC must have seen something in him, even if that something was a warm body for Easton to throttle on a card so lacking in big names, Christian Morecraft appears on the poster. Hey, somebody had to say it.
My pick: Easton. It’s a parlay pick for sure, but I can’t think of a single reason to think that Dominick Cruz’s personal hype man won’t swarm all over Papazian.

Pat Barry (-175) vs. Christian Morecraft (+145)

You never know exactly what you’re going to get with Barry. On paper, he looks like a mediocre heavyweight who’s just barely holding on to a UFC roster spot. But those who’ve actually seen him in the cage know that he’s probably the best 6-4 fighter in all of MMA. It’s just that, lately, none of the breaks have gone his way. Morecraft is another of the big, hulking heavyweights that seem to have popped up like weeds in the UFC recently. He’s in the same mold as guys like Travis Browne and Ben Rothwell, all towering heavyweights who look like they’d make great extras in a Viking movie. Morecraft will obviously have a size advantage, but that’s nothing new for Barry. It would probably throw him off more to fight someone his own height at this point. On a pure skill level, Barry’s on another planet. Morecraft has to know he can’t win a kickboxing match against him. What he has to do is treat this like a bar fight and take technique out of the equation. He’s the bigger, stronger man, with an edge on the mat. Again though, if Barry isn’t used to that by now, he never will be.
My pick: Barry. I know, this is usually the point where I talk myself into taking an underdog, but I can’t do it here. Eventually Barry has to catch a break. He just has to.

Quick picks:

– Jorge Rivera (+115) over Eric Schafer (-146). If I have to choose between two fighters down on their luck, I’ll take the guy who got that way by facing superior opponents.

– Khabib Nurmagomedov (even) over Kamal Shalorus (-130). First of all, Nurmagomedov needs a nickname in a bad, bad way. Secondly, I have yet to be impressed with a full performance by Shalorus, who tends to look good only in short bursts.

The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Ludwig + Easton + Barry. Also throw in Charlie Brenneman, who’s at -300 over Daniel Roberts. Because why not?

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

UFC on FX Predictions

Filed under: UFCCan Melvin Guillard get back on track after his swift loss to Joe Lauzon in October? Or is Jim Miller going to hand Guillard yet another submission loss? Who’s more likely to keep his recent momentum going, Duane Ludwig or Josh Neer? An…

Filed under: UFC

Can Melvin Guillard get back on track after his swift loss to Joe Lauzon in October? Or is Jim Miller going to hand Guillard yet another submission loss? Who’s more likely to keep his recent momentum going, Duane Ludwig or Josh Neer? And what kind of heavyweight brawl are Pat Barry and Christian Morecraft going to give us?

I’ll attempt to answer those questions and more as I predict the winners of Friday night’s UFC event below.

What: UFC on FX 1: Guillard vs. Miller

When: Friday, the Fuel TV preliminary fights begin at 6 p.m. ET and the FX main card begins at 9.

Where: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee

Predictions on the four FX fights below.

Melvin Guillard vs. Jim Miller
Guillard has a ton of talent, and when he’s on his game he can look spectacular. The problem is there’s a certain type of fighter who can take Guillard off his game, and Miller is exactly that kind of fighter.

Nine years and 42 fights into into his professional MMA career, Guillard still hasn’t given us any reason to think he’s going to beat a guy like Miller, who can take him down and submit him on the ground. Guillard has nine losses in his career, and eight of them came by submission. Miller has 20 wins in his career, and 11 of them came by submission.

Guillard is a good enough striker that it’s possible he could catch Miller and become the first person ever to finish him. But it’s much more likely that Miller will make Guillard tap.
Pick: Miller

Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer
Things have gone very well for Ludwig lately, as he’s on a surprising two-fight winning streak in the UFC and was recently handed the record for the fastest knockout in UFC history, as the UFC decided to ignore the Nevada State Athletic Commission, which says Ludwig took 11 seconds to knock Jonathan Goulet out, and call it officially a six-second knockout.

More: UFC on FX Fight Card | UFC on FX Results

So will Ludwig keep his momentum going against Neer? I don’t think so. Neer is on a five-fight winning streak and looked good in his UFC return against Keith Wisniewski in October. After a couple years out of the UFC, Neer appears to be focused and determined to get his career back on track, and I see him earning a big win against Ludwig.
Pick: Neer

Mike Easton vs. Jared Papazian
Easton is a very impressive young bantamweight who made his UFC debut with a TKO of Byron Bloodworth in October. I love Easton’s potential to make waves in the UFC. Easton was originally slated to fight Ken Stone on this card, but when Stone suffered an injury, Papazian stepped in on short notice to fill the slot. Papazian is a solid prospect making his UFC debut, but Papazian would be better suited as a flyweight, and he’s not quite ready for an opponent on Easton’s level.
Pick: Easton

Pat Barry vs. Christian Morecraft
Both of these heavyweights are coming off losses, and if the heavyweight division weren’t so shallow I’d think the loser might be in danger of getting cut by the UFC. But the heavyweight division is shallow, and so the UFC needs guys like Barry and Morecraft, who are both limited as fighters but both usually put on good shows. It wouldn’t shock me to see Barry soften Morecraft up with leg kicks and finish him off with punches, but Barry struggles so much on the ground that I suspect Morecraft is going to take Barry down and make him tap.
Pick: Morecraft

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

UFC on FX: Guillard vs. Miller, B/R Full Main Card Staff Predictions

The UFC will make its return to Nashville, TN this Friday for UFC on FX. Featured in the main event will be Jim Miller (20-3) and Melvin Guillard (46-10-3 1NC), two lightweights who are looking to get back into title contention after ending 2011 w…

The UFC will make its return to Nashville, TN this Friday for UFC on FX.

Featured in the main event will be Jim Miller (20-3) and Melvin Guillard (46-10-3 1NC), two lightweights who are looking to get back into title contention after ending 2011 with disappointing losses.

In a welterweight scrap, Duane Ludwig will meet fellow UFC veteran Josh Neer.

Relativity new UFC fighter Mike Easton (11-1) will take on UFC newcomer Jared Papazian in a bantamweight battle.

And the always entertaining Pat Barry will meet scrapper Christian Morecraft in a heavyweight battle.

Bleacher Report MMA Featured Columnists Dwight Wakabayashi, Dale De Souza, John Heinis and I, Jeff McKinney, are here to let you know who will win Friday night.

Begin Slideshow