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UFC 205: Which Fights Are Being Overlooked Due to McGregorMania?

Conor McGregor knows how to maximize his time in the spotlight.
From his ability to mastermind the most lucrative fights to his gift of gab, no fighter has been able to catch fans’ eyes and retain their focus the way McGregor has.
While that’s impressi…

Conor McGregor knows how to maximize his time in the spotlight.

From his ability to mastermind the most lucrative fights to his gift of gab, no fighter has been able to catch fans’ eyes and retain their focus the way McGregor has.

While that’s impressive, it oftentimes results in other fighters being forgotten. For all the hype surrounding the UFC’s first foray into New York City and all the amazing fights lined up for this Saturday, UFC 205 is still the Conor McGregor Show.

With that in mind, it’s worth putting the main event aside and paying homage to the many other interesting fights, fighters and storylines heading into the event. With that in mind, the dynamic duo of Steven Rondina and Nathan McCarter are here to look over the card and discuss some of the things being overlooked heading into the biggest event in MMA history.

Nathan McCarter: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Michael Johnson speaking to me right now.

And that’s a bit rare. I always enjoy Nurmagomedov, but it’s a rinse-and-repeat situation. He has long been the No. 1-ranked lightweight contender on the official UFC rankings (until recently), but injuries have kept him out of the public conscious.

His less-than-thrilling fighting style and absence have kept him from being a known commodity. His fight with Johnson, who is ranked No. 6, represents his chance to reassert himself as the leading candidate for the next title shot. After UFC Fight Night 98, Tony Ferguson could stand in the way of that happening, which could put more pressure on Nurmagomedov to perform at UFC 205.

We know he’s going to come in, grapple, throw opponents around and win a 15-minute decision. Maybe I’m bullish on Johnson, but that won’t be the tale of this fight—at least not early.

Johnson’s speed and athleticism will pose problems for Nurmagomedov. Add in Johnson’s power and a big upset could be brewing. If nothing else, Nurmagomedov is going to have to show more than he ever has inside the cage to get past Johnson, which is an exciting proposition.

Steven Rondina: I’m right there with you. I’m not sure if fans and pundits realize it right now, but the reason everyone is so interested in Nurmagomedov vs. Johnson is because we don’t actually know how good the Dagestani actually is.

There’s plenty of reason to believe he’s phenomenal, of course, but will he be able to work against a southpaw? Will he implement his game against a fighter with a wrestling base? Can he survive in the center of the cage?

How good is his chin? Is he recovered from his two-year layoff?

We don’t know! All of Nurmagomedov’s past foes have been favorable stylistic matchups, but Johnson absolutely isn’t. I’m excited to finally see if he has the skills and guts to make the necessary adjustments to take home the win.

That isn’t actually the fight I’m most interested in, though. That would be the co-co-main event—the strawweight title fight between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Karolina Kowalkiewicz.

Jedrzejczyk is a darling to serious UFC fans and for good reason. She took the title by mauling Carla Esparza in 2015 and has rearranged the face of every contender who has dared to challenge her.

On Double-J’s presence alone, I’d be looking forward to this. Add a game opponent in Kowalkiewicz and the mystique of the champ’s move to American Top Team, though? I’m all in.

I don’t necessarily think it will be the most exciting fight on the card, but there are a lot of interesting stories hidden therein.

Nathan: I love both Jedrzejczyk and Kowalkiewicz. Remember when Joe Rogan described Anderson Silva’s style as a “ballet of violence”? That’s how I view the style of both of these women. It’s art.

However, my excitement for this fight comes from how much I enjoy watching them perform as individuals, not this particular matchup. Kowalkiewicz isn’t out of her depth, but the champion does what the challenger does, only better. The speed differential is going to be the real factor in not making this a five-round competitive masterpiece.

The most exciting fight on this card is likely to be Jim Miller vs. Thiago Alves.

Miller is one of the most consistent performers on the roster. He has quietly tallied eight fight night bonuses including five Fight of the Night awards. Alves may not have accrued the same bonus money, but he has nine Octagon finishes to his credit. He brings violent body kicks and some of the most vicious knee finishes in UFC history with him into the Octagon.

Alves has struggled against wrestlers, but Miller isn’t Jon Fitch. He isn’t as dogged in his takedown attempts and actually invites stand-up battles. That will make this fight fun to watch as one of the early bouts.

Miller isn’t going to shy away from a bloody donnybrook, which is exactly the type of fight Alves will bring to him.

This fight could echo the war that was Alves’ brawl with Chris Lytle in November 2007.

Steven: Miller is always a good bet when it comes to predicting the most exciting fight, but so is Donald Cerrone. Cowboy has been on fire at 170 pounds, and his most recent win over Rick Story is one of the prettiest things I’ve seen in recent MMA history. He’s been guaranteed entertainment for a while now, and that won’t change here.

His opponent, Kelvin Gastelum, doesn’t have a reputation for being an exciting fighter, but he’s not somebody who puts fans to sleep, either. Just as importantly, Gastelum is at a stylistic disadvantage here, and that should open the door for another frenetic, creative performance from the veteran.

On top of the potential for fireworks, though, it’s worth noting that this is a crucial matchup for Cerrone’s career. He has found a second life in the last year after a disappointing lightweight championship berth in 2015. If he can beat Gastelum, he’s probably only a fight away from a title shot, and if he continues to improve, it feels like there’s a real chance he can finally win a belt.

Not only is this my pick for the most exciting fight, but I would go so far as to say that Cerrone is potentially the most interesting competitor on the whole card.

Nathan: I was interested and excited about Rashad Evans’ move to middleweight, but with that fight off the card, I’ve had more mental space to be intrigued by Katlyn Chookagian.

Chookagian is still a bit of an unknown prospect, but she won her UFC debut over the ever-tough Lauren Murphy. She trains out of Team Renzo Gracie and has a good frame for the division. She has flown under the radar partly because she never stepped foot inside the Invicta cage where a lot of female talent first gets recognized by the vast MMA base.

I’m not sure Liz Carmouche is a step up in competition over Murphy. Thus, it will likely be a similar fight, if not a better showing for Chookagian. We may get to see more of her skill set and gain a better understanding of what her ceiling is in the UFC. If you are interested in prospects and the future of the bantamweight division, keep an eye on Chookagian in the first fight of the event.

Steven: Indeed, and you know what’s really wild? We’ve been talking this long and haven’t even discussed Tyron Woodley. Or Stephen Thompson. Or Chris Weidman, Miesha Tate or Frankie Edgar.

UFC 205 is such a deep card that I’m counting the hours until it starts.

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Conor McGregor vs. Eddie Alvarez: The Complete Breakdown at UFC 205

UFC featherweight champion Conor McGregor takes on UFC lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez at UFC 205 on Saturday in the first matchup of reigning titleholders since BJ Penn and Georges St-Pierre clashed at UFC 94 back in 2009.
This is a fight of epic p…

This is a fight of epic proportions. Not only is it a matchup of two reigning champions, but McGregor is by far the biggest draw in the history of the sport and one of its two biggest stars, and he faces Alvarez on the biggest possible stage at Madison Square Garden in the UFC’s first trip to New York in the modern era. This card will probably be the highest-selling event in UFC history.

With all of that history and context in mind, it’s easy to forget what a great pure fight this is.

Don’t listen to those who try to denigrate his accomplishments: McGregor is on one of the epic runs in the sport’s history right now, winning eight of his nine fights in the UFC, six of them by devastating knockout.

He finished Jose Aldo, the best featherweight in MMA history and an all-time great who hadn’t lost in a decade, in 13 seconds with the first punch he threw. He avenged his loss to Nate Diaz, albeit with some controversy. He finished Dustin Poirier and Chad Mendes and took a one-sided decision from Max Holloway, who has since won nine in a row and shown he’s one of the best 145-pounders in the world.

That’s a resume any fighter could be proud of.

Alvarez is no slouch either. The longtime Bellator lightweight champion entered the UFC with a ton of momentum, having compiled an incredible resume over his decade in the sport and avenged his only recent loss to Michael Chandler. He fell to Donald Cerrone in his UFC debut, though, and eked out a pair of close split decisions over Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis.

When Alvarez received a title shot against the dominant Rafael Dos Anjos, it was more a matter of timing and career achievements than what he had done recently. Still, Alvarez made the most of it, blasting the Brazilian with a brutal right hand in the first round to set up the finishing flurry.

With the UFC title under his belt, Alvarez is one of the most accomplished lightweights in the history of the sport. Now he’ll get a stage that befits the scale of his achievements in his largely under-the-radar career.

What a fight. Let’s dig into the matchup.

Conor McGregor

Record: 20-3 (17 KO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC)

Height: 5’9″

Reach: 74″

McGregor is an aggressive, dangerous puncher with a great deal of craft and depth to his game. The southpaw’s left hand is the centerpiece of his approach, and he has a variety of ways of placing it on his opponent’s chin.

Pressure is McGregor’s default mode. He does his best work while moving forward and pressing his opponent back toward the fence with a combination of kicks and footwork. Side, front and oblique kicks push his opponent straight back, while spinning kicks attack the space into which his opponent would try to escape to McGregor’s right side. If his opponent tries to escape to his left side, the left hand or a left kick is waiting for him.

When the opponent hits the fence, McGregor really goes to work. He excels at sticking his opponent on the end of his long reach, staying just out of range and then firing off a single left hand at a time. If the opponent is really hurt, McGregor has shown an increasing propensity for devastating head-body flurries of punches.

When the opponent tries to circle out along the fence away from the left hand, McGregor lets him escape to that side and pivots slightly as he throws a straight left that catches the opponent across the plane of his body.

That inside-angle left hand, as it’s known, is McGregor’s bread and butter and his most devastating punch. In a normal orthodox-southpaw matchup, both fighters try to get their lead foot to the outside of the opponent’s to gain the outside angle. This shortens the path for the rear power hand and provides a dominant angle.

McGregor doesn’t play that game. Instead, he’s happy to let his opponent overcommit to the outside angle, because it creates an opening for the inside angle he likes. It’s a powerful shot because it arrives across the plane of the opponent’s body so his legs can’t bend to absorb its force.

McGregor is especially fond of that inside-angle left hand as a counter, like the one he used to knock out Aldo. It’s just one possibility in the increasingly deep bag of counters he has at his disposal. Especially in the second fight against Diaz, McGregor showed off an array of responses, including same-time counters as Diaz threw, pull counters that drew Diaz forward and half-beat counters just after Diaz let go.

Improved counters are just one piece of McGregor’s continued evolution. He was effectively a one-handed fighter for much of his career, but in recent fights he has shown a jab and especially a right hook to follow his devastating left hand.

That’s the good piece of McGregor’s game, but he’s hardly flawless. The biggest problem is defense. He moves his head in the pocket, but that’s mostly to set up his counters, and otherwise he relies almost entirely on his chin or not being there to be hit. Considering the pace at which he likes to fight, that means the Irishman is going to eat a lot of damage.

Pace is the other issue. McGregor likes to put a great deal of volume on his opponent, burying him in a steady stream of left hands and left kicks. Both Diaz fights showed the limit of his gas tank. If he’s completely in control, McGregor will look fresh even after throwing a tremendous number of strikes. If he’s being pressured, however, that tank can run dry much more quickly than we might expect.

Striking is McGregor’s wheelhouse, but he’s not a one-dimensional fighter. He has a nice selection of well-timed shot takedowns and a series of throws in the clinch, though he doesn’t use them often. On top, he’s a violent ground-striker and a smooth guard-passer who controls with real acumen. It’s not a major component of his game, but he could probably stand to fall back on these excellent tools a little more often.

Defensively, however, McGregor has some problems. He’s not a bad defensive wrestler, but he’s also not bulletproof, especially against opponents who can chain takedowns together. It’s not easy to hold him down, either, but especially in the middle of the cage (where he can’t use the fence) he doesn’t offer much from his back.

The real issue is in scrambles. Going back to his early career, McGregor has a bad habit of panicking in transitions and trying to muscle his way out of trouble—that’s how Diaz got to his back for the choke, how Joe Duffy found an early arm triangle six years ago and how Artemij Sitenkov caught him with a kneebar in 2008. There’s a clear pattern here, and it’s one he has never truly fixed.

Eddie Alvarez

Record: 28-4 (15 KO, 7 SUB, 6 DEC)

Height: 5’9″

Reach: 69″

Intelligence, experience and adaptability define Alvarez’s game. A 13-year pro and a veteran of 32 fights, there’s nothing he hasn’t seen inside a ring or cage on three continents. Finally a UFC champion at the age of 32, Alvarez puts all of his accumulated knowledge to use in a crafty, smart approach to fighting.

While he’s a step slower than he was in his mid- or late 20s, Alvarez is still quick and blessed with outstanding hand speed. A powerful puncher, Alvarez does his best work on the feet and utilizes a variety of different strategies depending on who’s standing in front of him. He can both pressure his opponent toward the fence and play a more stationary game focused on exchanges in the middle of the cage.

At his best, however, Alvarez sticks and moves through the space of the cage before picking his spots to sit down on counters or dart into range with a combination. The champion has outstanding footwork and a great sense for how to use the space of the cage to his advantage. His pivots and sidesteps are tricky and confusing, allowing him to find clean angles for his counters and blitzing combinations.

When he goes on the attack, Alvarez does a great job of moving his shots between the head and the body. He has a particular preference for going from a straight right to the body to a left hook upstairs or finishing with a liver shot, and a doubled right hand as he steps in on an angle is a specialty. The occasional kick adds some variety, and he loves to attack the legs and body.

While Alvarez does good work with these in-and-out combinations, he’s even better when he can draw his opponent onto his counters.

He has quick triggers and a great sense for how to move his shots around and through his opponent’s guard. Against Dos Anjos, for example, Alvarez landed several straight-right counters and then followed with a right-hook counter that staggered the champion, who was expecting another straight.

Alvarez’s layered defense makes these counters possible. He moves his head, parries and blocks shots as they come in, all of which provide him with different opportunities to land his shots. He’s not the best defensive fighter in terms of avoiding shots, but he’s one of the best at turning his defense into offense.

That leads to one of the major issues with Alvarez’s game: his tendency to eat really hard shots. Though he has been finished via strikes only once, the champion has been staggered or knocked down on many occasions, and his desire to hang in the pocket to counter makes him vulnerable to these kinds of shots.

Volume isn’t Alvarez’s strong suit either. When his opponent lets him set the pace, he works in a measured fashion and only lets go serious offensive output when his opponent tries to get in his face, as Dos Anjos did. In a pure range-striking matchup, he can be drowned in volume.

While he likes to strike, wrestling is a strong secondary skill set for Alvarez. He covers his level changes with punches well in open space, though he can be too predictable with his entries against the cage. Once he’s in on his opponent’s hips, Alvarez is relentless, switching from singles to doubles and everything in between while pounding away with short punches in transition.

The fence is Alvarez’s best friend in these kinds of exchanges, and he excels at grinding his opponent for minutes at a time with head pressure and good technique in the clinch and with takedown chains. It’s not pretty, but it’s tiring, and Alvarez has gas to spare.

Alvarez is a competent top-position grappler. He has real power in his shots when he can posture up, and he passes well, especially to the back. It would be an exaggeration to call him a submission threat, though, at least against high-level competition.

Betting Odds

McGregor -155, Alvarez +135, per Odds Shark

Prediction

This is going to be a great fight.

It’s clear what McGregor will try to do: pressure Alvarez toward the fence, lace him with left hands and create openings to land a big counter when Alvarez tries to fight off the cage. That’s typically what McGregor tries to do in every fight, though the pressure can be more or less measured, and he might place more or less emphasis on the counters as opposed to leading the dance.

Alvarez, however, has a couple of different options here. He might try to pressure McGregor right back, adopting the kind of wrestling- and clinch-heavy game plan against the fence that he used to stifle Melendez and Pettis. Alternatively, he can try the same strategy he used against Dos Anjos, another southpaw pressure fighter, and play a stick-and-move game with a lot of emphasis on landing counters.

They’re not mutually exclusive: Alvarez might pressure in bursts or try to hit reactive takedowns while he’s avoiding McGregor’s pressure. The question is how much of each Alvarez adopts.

Both approaches have things to recommend them. McGregor is a lethal striker, but his takedown defense isn’t perfect, and Alvarez might be able to wear him down with a dose of grinding. On the other hand, McGregor is also hittable, and Alvarez can use his slick counterpunching game to make the Irishman pay for his aggression.

Both approaches also have downsides, though. A pressuring Alvarez is a less defensively sound Alvarez, as we saw against Pettis, and he risks walking into McGregor’s devastating counters when he tries to get into range to shoot takedowns. A sticking-and-moving Alvarez is harder to hit, but he risks becoming stuck on the end of McGregor’s left hand and getting outworked.

It’s plausible for Alvarez to make either, both or a mixture work long enough to finish McGregor or win the rounds for a decision victory.

The problem is McGregor’s power and craft. He’s going to hit Alvarez, and the question is whether the lightweight champion can handle it. Alvarez has always been prone to eating big shots and getting dropped, and McGregor is one of the most dangerous punchers in the sport.

The pick is McGregor by knockout in the second round.

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UFC 205: The Key Storylines for McGregor vs. Alvarez Blockbuster in NYC

Not long now.
Not long until the greatest MMA fight card of all time comes to fruition. That’s right, ladies and gents. It’s UFC 205, going down from a little venue known as Madison Square Garden, in a little city that was so nice, so very nice, that y…

Not long now.

Not long until the greatest MMA fight card of all time comes to fruition. That’s right, ladies and gents. It’s UFC 205, going down from a little venue known as Madison Square Garden, in a little city that was so nice, so very nice, that you know what they did? They went ahead and named it twice.

It’s a history-steeped thing no matter how you view it. OK, so maybe the New York City stuff gets a little over the top. Maybe no one cares all that much that New York was the 50th and final state (woo!) to legalize pro MMA.

So forget about that stuff, then.

Just remember that Conor McGregor‘s going for a new high, vying to take Eddie Alvarez’s lightweight belt, add it to his featherweight strap and become the first person to hold two UFC belts at the same time.

Or maybe you’re interested in one of the two other title fights happening that night. Or one of the other many rip-snorters on the docket. Storylines abound. Here are the top storylines heading into Saturday’s blockbuster.

So…Can McGregor Do This?

McGregor‘s game involves pressuring his opponent back against the chain link, cutting off all escape routes with angles and kicks, then firing off that anti-tank missile at the end of his left arm.

But hold the phone. Because no one puts Eddie in a corner.

Alvarez, whose calling card has always been boxing, possesses the quickness, footwork and cardiovascular stamina to stay clear of compromising situations. He also has the toughness and fistic power to make opponents pay.

Ask Rafael Dos Anjos, a notorious pressure fighter, how well pressure works against Alvarez. I think I know what answer you’d get, based on the fact that Alvarez knocked him out in the first round to capture the belt back in July.

For all its promise, though, stand-up is not Alvarez’s only skill. The champ also has the ability to take McGregor to the mat and punish him there, or at least put a pin in that lethal striking.

That toolbox—quickness, movement, deceptive power, solid wrestling—might remind you of someone. Frankie Edgar possesses a very similar combination of tools.

Interestingly, McGregor has been accused of ducking Edgar, most recently by Alvarez himself. During a media conference call last week, Alvarez said of the Irishman, per Scrap Digest:

He’s fought a bunch of chumps, if I had the resume he had, if they gave me the resume he has, if I was that lucky, the same s–t would happen … Styles make match-ups. When you pick the styles you want to fight, then s–t you can knock everyone out.

…

You ran from Frankie Edgar for two years. You’ve been cherry picking opponents. You’ve been fighting these tiny guys, guys you knew you could beat.

Alvarez brings up another interesting point: This is McGregor‘s first UFC bout at lightweight. Yes, he has the two fights with Nate Diaz at welterweight, but Alvarez is still bigger than most of the opponents he’s faced in the Octagon.

So is a history-making turn from McGregor still possible? Yes, it is. McGregor is a heck of a good fighter and he’ll be ready to ply his game. Plus, he seems tailor-made for the big moments. Can you imagine McGregor bringing anything but his A-plus game to Madison Square Garden for this momentous event? I sure can’t.

It won’t be easy, but that’s kind of the point.

Which Title Fight Takes Fight of the Night Title?

As great as Alvarez-McGregor is, it only scratches the surface.

For only the second time in UFC history, three belts are at stake in one evening. The only other time this happened was at UFC 33 in 2001.

The second leg of the golden stool pits welterweight champ Tyron Woodley against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, the kickboxing prodigy with the seven-fight win streak and a penchant for spinning hook kicks.

Woodley is a power puncher until he gets tired, and then he’s a grinder, but if they should exchange—particularly early—look out.

Then, in what one could call the co-co-main event, you have the great Joanna Jedrzejczyk defending her women’s strawweight crown against Karolina Kowalkiewicz.

Jedrzejczyk is a stone-cold reaper of souls, brandishing her stiff jab, brilliant combinations and vicious clinch game to chew up opponents over the course of multiple rounds.

Kowalkiewicz, however, is a terrific foil, given her physical strength and ground game. She’s not overwhelming in any phase but has a blue-collar work ethic, a high level of output and the willingness to do what it takes to score points.

The main event is a safe bet, but it’s hard to go wrong here. Jedrzejczyk would be fun to watch fighting an old VCR. Woodley-Wonderboy could have real fireworks. It’s an embarrassment of riches, but the richest plumb is probably the culminating bout.

Weidman Represents the Empire State

The backdrop, the “why” of UFC 205, if you will, is of course the UFC’s debut in New York and Madison Square Garden. In reaction, as we know, the UFC threw every major asset that wasn’t nailed down or suspended at the event in the understandable and well-founded hope of touching off a combat supernova.

There was one just one little drawback to this: Fighters hailing from or around the Empire State were left on the outside looking in. In fact, the Long Island-based trio of Aljamain Sterling, Gian Villante and Al Iaquinta have been dubbed “The NY Outsiders” on social media and elsewhere.

But take heart, New York MMA people. Chris Weidman has your back.

The native of Baldwin, New York, has a literal huge task in front of him at MSG in the form of Cuban wrestling giant Yoel Romero.

This will be a cracking good fight at middleweight, with Romero’s titanic power against Weidman‘s fearlessness and aggression. It could be a slugfest at times, it could become a wrestling chess match, it could become a battle of riding times.

Either way, with apologies to Ronaldo Souza, the winner is probably in line for a shot at champ Michael Bisping.

Who knows? Even though New York was frozen out of its own event, in a way, one of its own may soon find himself back on the “top of the heap,” if you get what I’m saying. OK, I’ll let myself out.

Scott Harris writes about MMA for Bleacher Report. For more stuff like this, follow Scott on Twitter.

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Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson: The Complete Breakdown at UFC 205

Stephen Thompson has finally earned his shot at the UFC’s welterweight belt. It took seven consecutive wins—including a spinning-hook-kick knockout of Jake Ellenberger, a first-round knockout of former champion Johny Hendricks and a clean decision over former title contender Rory MacDonald—but at long last, Wonderboy will fight with the belt on the line.

Facing him across the Octagon will be newly minted champion Tyron Woodley, who made the most of his unexpected title shot in July by knocking out the venerable and beloved Robbie Lawler with a thunderous right hand. Prior to that, Woodley had been on the shelf for 18 months following a contentious decision win over Kelvin Gastelum and a devastating knockout of Dong Hyun Kim.

This is a tremendous stylistic clash between two polar-opposite fighters—the karate master and the All-American wrestler—so let’s dig in.

Tyron Woodley

Record: 16-3 (6 KO, 5 SUB, 5 DEC)

Height: 5’9″

Reach: 74″

Woodley is a marvel of athleticism, speed and power. The two-time All-American wrestler from the University of Missouri has built his game around his physical gifts, and the result is an efficient, stripped-down approach to fighting.

The right hand is Woodley‘s bread and butter, and everything he does on his feet is designed to enable him to land it.

He probes with his lead hand, rarely throwing an actual jab and usually pumping it to measure the distance. This also serves to accustom Woodley‘s opponent to a particular speed and rhythm. When he explodes forward into a fully committed right hand, the speed and power are shocking and unexpected.

A potent right kick serves a few different purposes for Woodley. He’s adept at moving it between the legs, body and head, and he uses it in crafty ways to manipulate his opponent’s hand positioning. If the opponent responds to a hard body kick by dropping his hand, Woodley shoots an overhand or straight right into the gap. Woodley also likes to move from kicks to punches, firing off a hard right immediately after a kick.

Nobody will confuse him with Anderson Silva or Conor McGregor in terms of depth of skill, but Woodley is a decent counterpuncher with excellent timing and speed. In terms of his overall development as a fighter, he’d be well-served to keep working on this facet of his game, because he has real gifts.

It’s easy to look at Woodley and see nothing but the right hand and the power and speed with which he delivers it, but his craft shouldn’t be underestimated.

Woodley hasn’t forgotten his roots as a wrestler. The former All-American is a grinder of a clinch fighter who uses his squat, powerful frame to pin his opponent in the fence with a mixture of raw strength and excellent technique. While not particularly dangerous on the inside, Woodley isn’t easy to escape and excels at wearing his opponent down.

He’s not an active takedown artist, but Woodley hasn’t forgotten how to shoot a beautiful, explosive and well-timed double. His chains against the fence, moving from singles to doubles to trips, are technical and finished with authority. Defensively, he’s almost impossible to take down unless he’s exhausted.

With that said, Woodley has some real drawbacks. The first is ringcraft. While the specifics of Woodley‘s footwork aren’t bad—he takes short steps and has a knack for finding angles—he tends to lose track of the big picture of where he is in the cage. It’s not hard to back him up to the fence, and he doesn’t show much urgency in getting back to open space.

The second major issue with Woodley‘s game is pace. Every shot he throws can finish the fight, but that’s exactly the problem: It takes a tremendous amount of energy to explode the way he does, which makes it difficult for him to score enough points to win rounds if he can’t get the finish.

Moreover, he seems to slow badly even over the course of a three-round fight, and we have yet to see him go for 25 minutes.

Stephen Thompson

Record: 13-1 (7 KO, 1 SUB, 5 DEC)

Height: 6’0″

Reach: 75″

Thompson has spent his entire life competing in karate, kickboxing and now MMA, and he has built his unique approach to fighting on the basis of that exceptional depth of experience.

Creating and managing distance is the cornerstone of Thompson’s game. Already tall for the division at 6’0″, Thompson fights even longer than his height would suggest by consistently switching stances and taking a wide base that keeps his head far away from his opponent.

An array of kicks and a busy lead hand keep his opponent outside. Thompson moves seamlessly between side, front and round kicks that are deceptive and difficult to predict, and if his opponent focuses too much on the kicks, he places a hard, consistent jab in his face. That lead hand is constantly probing and measuring, and it helps to set the kind of bouncy rhythm that makes Thompson so hard to figure out.

Precise, technical footwork and efficient movement likewise help to maintain distance. Thompson rarely moves in straight lines and constantly cuts angles with pivots and sidesteps to avoid being pinned against the fence or forced into a range with which he isn’t comfortable.

It’s hard to overstate how good Thompson’s command of the range is. He has an otherworldly sense for where he is relative to his opponent, how much time that amount of space gives him to react and what his various options are.

Once he has established his preferred range, Thompson goes to work. Having space to play gives Thompson two basic options: blitzing forward with combinations or timing vicious counterpunches as his opponent is forced to lunge in to cover the distance.

A blitzing Thompson is effective, stringing together sequences of straight punches behind which he hides sneaky head kicks. His use of angles on these blitzes is impressive, cutting a bewildering array of approaches on lines relative to the plane of his opponent’s body.

Thompson is much more dangerous as a counterpuncher, though. His command of angles here is even more important, as it allows him to land strikes that opponents can’t see coming.

The karate master has a particular knack for landing from the inside angle, the same punch that McGregor has popularized. Standing in the opposite stance to his opponent when he tries to charge in, Thompson steps diagonally back and to the outside and pivots as he throws the straight left hand. This allows it to land perpendicular to the plane of his opponent’s body, where it lands with the greatest possible force.

Strikes like this are the best piece of Thompson’s game, and he has a deep well of options available when opponents try to pressure him. If he’s feeling especially confident, he’s willing to exchange punches in the pocket, something that’s rare with most karate-based fighters.

In addition to all of his technical skill, Thompson pushes an outstanding pace. He never forces the finish and is happy to pepper his opponent with enough strikes to score and win rounds.

None of that striking wizardry would matter if Thompson couldn’t keep the fight standing. Years of training with Chris Weidman and other elite wrestlers have given him exceptional technical skills as a defensive wrestler, and his command of distance and angles makes it difficult to get a clean shot at his hips in the first place. He can hit the occasional takedown of his own for the sake of variety as well.

It’s difficult to hold Thompson in the clinch if he doesn’t want to be there, and his long frame gives him surprising leverage on the inside. He’s scrappy in the clinch, too, and throws hard knees and punches on the exits.

There are some weaknesses to Thompson’s game, though. Defense isn’t his strongest suit. Thompson relies heavily on distance and angles to avoid his opponent’s strikes, and he’s rarely there to be hit. When he is forced into range, though, Thompson isn’t hard to hit. He doesn’t have great head movement and sometimes backs away with his chin in the air.

In practical terms, this means that an opponent who succeeds in pinning Thompson in boxing range or against the fence can do real damage. This is easier said than done, obviously.

That’s about all we’ve seen in terms of potential problems with Thompson’s game at this point.

Betting Odds

Thompson -200 (bet $200 to win $100), Woodley +170 (bet $100 to win $170)

Prediction

This is a tough matchup for Woodley in his first title defense: a crisp, active striker who controls the distance, works at a quick pace and is difficult to hold in the clinch or on the ground.

Woodley does have a path to victory. Thompson can be hit, especially early in the fight as he’s still trying to gauge the range and his opponent’s speed and timing, and few fighters are better equipped to exploit that brief period of adjustment than someone as fast and powerful as Woodley.

For the same reason, it’s not especially hard to grab ahold of Thompson early in the fight, and Woodley will look to grind on him in the clinch and with takedowns.

The longer the fight goes, however, the better things look for Thompson. He works at a drastically quicker pace, targets the legs and the body to wear his opponent down, and sets such a long range that Woodley will have to expend even more energy than normal just to cover the gap.

Add to that the fact that Woodley isn’t particularly skilled at ringcraft, and it’s likely that the champion will be spending most of the fight where Thompson wants it, in the middle of the cage.

The most likely outcome, then, involves Thompson eating a few scary shots early and having to work through Woodley‘s takedown attempts and grinding against the fence before breaking out into open space and steadily upping the volume as Woodley slows. Eventually, Woodley will run into a big series of counters. The pick is Thompson by knockout in the third round.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of Tuesday.

Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. For the history enthusiasts out there, he also hosts The Fall of Rome Podcast on the end of the Roman Empire. He can be found on Twitter and on Facebook.

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For Miesha Tate at UFC 205, the Student Better Not Become the Teacher

When Miesha Tate begins her bid to reclaim the UFC women’s bantamweight title, she’ll do it against a familiar charge.
Raquel Pennington is on a three-fight win streak and is currently eighth on the official UFC rankings—seven spots b…

When Miesha Tate begins her bid to reclaim the UFC women’s bantamweight title, she’ll do it against a familiar charge.

Raquel Pennington is on a three-fight win streak and is currently eighth on the official UFC rankings—seven spots below No. 1 contender Tate. The two lock up in the pay-per-view opener of Saturday’s UFC 205 card at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

It’s Tate’s first bout since losing the belt to Amanda Nunes at UFC 200 in July. Her placement on these two cards—two of the biggest of this or any other year—speaks to the UFC’s belief in Tate’s popularity.

“I’m honored the UFC would give me someone who’s hot right now,” Tate said in an exclusive interview with Bleacher Report. “It shows what they think of me and what the fans think of me. Fighting the best is how you prove you’re the best.”

As Tate (18-6) sets out on this proving process, she may hold an ace up her sleeve. She and Pennington (8-5) have crossed paths before, back in 2013 when Tate was a head coach and Pennington a Team Tate contestant on season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter. That’s a pretty intimate relationship, and it gave Tate insights into Pennington’s makeup.

“Very well-rounded, very durable, very strong,” Tate said of Pennington. “On the show, she was one of the first people to train with the guys. At first we partnered girls with girls and guys with guys, but Raquel wanted to push herself. She’s very strong. She really wants to excel.”

Pennington lost in the semifinals that season but still got a UFC shot. Since the show’s conclusion, Pennington has gone 4-2, including her current streak, which contains wins over Bethe Correia, Jessica Andrade and Elizabeth Phillips.

Still, Pennington isn’t what you’d call a world beater, and she’s a significant 11-4 underdog against Tate, according to betting side Odds Shark. Tate seems prepared for this line of reasoning and is quick to play down—but not too far down—any perceived advantage.

“She’s dangerous because she’s not super well known yet, but she’s been beating solid girls,” Tate said. “She’s hungry. … [But] I really don’t think she’s fought anyone like me.”

Tate is hoping her time as an imparter of lessons isn’t done yet. Especially since, by her own admission, she’s not always the most willing student. Take the Nunes loss, which Tate said she didn’t spend much time poring over. Instead, she said she prefers to chalk it up to a big punch and an off night.

“I think I just got caught early in that fight and wasn’t able to recover,” Tate said. “It wasn’t my best, and most people could see that. … It was a really solid right hand, and I lost my bearings for the rest of the fight. I didn’t have, what do you call it? My body and brain weren’t on the same level. There was no cognitive activity going on.”

Inspirational slogans are a dime a dozen on social media and elsewhere, but Tate employs one that rings true. She’s looking to move forward and isn’t going to let her role on TUF or anything else sway her too much.

“The past is a place of reference and not a place of residence,” Tate said.

Scott Harris writes about MMA for Bleacher Report. For more stuff like this, follow Scott on Twitter. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

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Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz: The Complete Breakdown at UFC 205

Dominant strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk will attempt to make the fourth defense of her title against fellow native of Poland Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the first of three title bouts to grace the stacked UFC 205 card on Saturday. The two actually met once before in an amateur MMA fight back in 2012, which Jedrzejczyk won by submission, and Kowalkiewicz will get a chance at revenge.

Aside from a contentious first meeting with Claudia Gadelha, Jedrzejczyk has been dominant in her six UFC outings. Gadelha faded hard in their July rematch with the belt on the line, and the champion left no doubt; prior to that, Jedrzejczyk ran through Valerie Letourneau and Jessica Penne. The beating she put on Carla Esparza to win the belt in March 2015 was one of the most vicious ever suffered by a reigning champion.

Kowalkiewicz is undefeated but enters the bout as a heavy underdog. She has won all three of her UFC appearances by decision, beating Randa Markos, Heather Jo Clark and finally Rose Namajunas to secure a shot at the belt.

Jedrzejczyk is a rising star both in and out of the cage, and this is her chance to dominate the spotlight in front of an enormous audience.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Record: 12-0 (4 KO, 1 SUB, 7 DEC)

Height: 5’6″

Reach: 65″

Jedrzejczyk is one of the cleanest, most technically sound strikers in MMA. She’s a veteran of 70 amateur and professional kickboxing matches and a former pupil of the great Ernesto Hoost, and that deep well of experience and time spent drilling with outstanding coaches shows in her perfect fundamentals, calm under pressure and adaptability.

The jab is the foundation of Jedrzejczyk‘s game. She fires it off early and often, using it to establish her range, set her rhythm and score points. Everything else the champion does builds on this single strike, which she moves between the head and the body with varied timing.

Once she has her opponent reacting to the jab, the full flower of Jedrzejczyk‘s striking game comes into the open. She can pepper her opponent with hard, forward-moving punch-kick combinations that utilize all three levels in a single sequence: The jab-cross-left hook to the liver-right low kick is a particular favorite.

She can also stick and move against a pressuring opponent, using the jab and a vicious front kick to the face or body to enforce distance and then picking her spots to sit down on a hard combination when her opponent overcommits.

When necessary, Jedrzejczyk can pressure, using her jab and kicks in conjunction with slick footwork to force her opponent toward the fence. Once there, the champion flurries like few in the sport, sticking together head-body sequences of up to 20 strikes at a time.

In each of these potential approaches, Jedrzejczyk‘s fundamentals shine through. The economy of motion in her strikes is exceptional, and there’s no wasted energy at all. Her pivots and footwork are exceptional; she never moves an inch more or less than she should, and it’s difficult to pin her against the fence. Counters are a specialty, and overaggressive opponents have to eat three or four shots just to land one.

Jedrzejczyk pushes one of the best paces in the sport. Three things contribute to this: her clean fundamentals, which mean that she’s efficient with every technique; her command of range, which means she’s always close enough to land strikes; and finally her combinations, because she’s always throwing three or more strikes at a time.

It doesn’t matter how good a striker a fighter might be if she can’t stuff takedowns, and Jedrzejczyk has developed some of the best defensive wrestling skills in the sport. Her command of distance makes it hard to get a clean shot at her in the first place, and she knows how to respond when her opponent does grab ahold, using the cage well to help her scramble back to her feet.

What’s even more impressive is how Jedrzejczyk punishes her opponents for trying to shoot on her. Every time she can create space in these transitions, the champion slashes away with elbows and knees. She has even added a few takedowns of her own as a complement to her defensive skills in recent fights.

If that weren’t enough, Jedrzejczyk is also a monster of a clinch fighter who puts her long frame to good use on the inside. She’s a master of elbows and knees and needs only a tiny bit of space to land something devastating.

There aren’t many weaknesses to the champion’s game. She hasn’t shown much as a grappler, though she seems to be defensively sound from her back and throws with power whenever she gets on top. Defense in the pocket isn’t her strongest suit, and she could stand to move her head a little more. These are minor concerns, though.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Record: 10-0 (1 KO, 2 SUB, 7 DEC)

Height: 5’3″

Reach: 65″

Kowalkiewicz is a tough, durable and hard-nosed fighter who has made consistent improvements in her brief MMA career. She’s not a great athlete and doesn’t hit particularly hard, but she has built a reliable, effective game based on constant movement and offensive output.

The weight of volume Kowalkiewicz puts on her opponents is what allows her to win. She circles and circles, picking her spots to dart into range with a few punches and a kick, and then she exits. As soon as she’s back in open space, she starts circling again and repeats the process.

The sheer pace at which Kowalkiewicz does this is staggering: She routinely throws 25 or 30 strikes in a minute.

To keep her opponent at distance and out of the pocket, Kowalkiewicz flashes a consistent jab that gives her just enough room to pivot and move. It’s rare to see her get caught against the fence, and in general she has a great sense of how to use the space of the cage to her advantage. She doesn’t have the crisp, perfect footwork of Jedrzejczyk, but it’s good enough, and she understands the big picture of ringcraft.

There are a couple of problems with this approach, though. The first is the utter lack of anything resembling power in Kowalkiewicz‘s punches when she’s working this kind of high-volume, movement-based game. She never sets her feet under her, and this means she’s throwing nothing but arm punches. It’s clear this is the issue, because when her feet are actually under her, she has some pop.

The second is defense. Like many outside fighters, Kowalkiewicz depends on distance and angles to avoid her opponent’s strikes. When she is in range, however, it’s not at all hard to put leather on her. She’s especially vulnerable to counterpunches as she enters with one of her combinations, as she rarely pulls her head off the center line as she throws and doesn’t use much head movement in general.

The best facet of Kowalkiewicz‘s game is actually the clinch, not her outside striking. It’s why she doesn’t particularly mind overshooting when she darts into range; if she winds up in the clinch, she’s happy to be there so long as she doesn’t get stuck in punching distance.

While she’s not large, Kowalkiewicz‘s technique in the clinch makes her a handful to deal with. She gets great leverage on her double-collar tie and gets her hips into her knee strikes. She needs only a tiny amount of space to land a slashing elbow. There’s real power in her clinch strikes compared to her punches.

Once she has her hands on her opponent, Kowalkiewicz is a whirling dervish of offense and brings the same kind of pace she prefers at range.

Kowalkiewicz looks for the occasional trip in the clinch and knows what she’s doing in terms of passes, control and strikes from top position, but that’s only a minor part of her game. She has outstanding takedown defense, especially against the fence, and she is a competent defensive grappler.

Betting Odds

Jedrzejczyk -400, Kowalkiewicz +325

Prediction

It’s hard to imagine a worse matchup for Kowalkiewicz on every level, from the broad outlines of strategy to the specific manifestations of technique that will play out from exchange to exchange.

In the big picture, Jedrzejczyk can match or exceed Kowalkiewicz‘s pace, her best asset, while landing with substantially cleaner technique, more variety and more power. Moreover, the champion is every bit the clinch fighter Kowalkiewicz is and much more, with greater size and better leverage on the inside. Kowalkiewicz doesn’t have the takedown game to threaten an outstanding defensive wrestler, either.

Things don’t get any better when we break down the specifics. Jedrzejczyk is an outstanding counterpuncher, and Kowalkiewicz is vulnerable as she enters and exits with her combinations. The champion’s jab will make it difficult for Kowalkiewicz to find the range she prefers when she circles.

Kowalkiewicz‘s path to victory revolves around frustrating the champion with her in-and-out game, and that seems unlikely. Jedrzejczyk will slowly break her down with combinations and finish with a flurry of strikes in the fourth round.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of Monday.

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