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UFC 171 Tweet-Sized Stats: 26 Surprising Facts for Hendricks vs. Lawler

(Fan-made poster by Frank G.)

Note: Reed’s book ‘Fightnomics’ is available now on Amazon (in Kindle and paperback versions), featuring 336 pages of statistical analysis on UFC fighters and the “hidden science” behind their fights. If you’ve been a fan of his Databomb columns on CagePotato, pick up a copy today.

With UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler coming up this Saturday, I decided to put together another batch of interesting facts and stats about the event, all of which fit inside Twitter’s 140-character limit. Feel free to tweet ’em out yourself during the event, and let us know which ones surprised you the most. (And of course, follow @cagepotatomma and @fightnomics if you’re not doing so already.) Let’s begin…

The Good

7 of the Top 15 ranked @ufc welterweights are competing at #UFC171. That includes numbers 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, 12, & 14. Post GSP-era starts now.

Welterweight sluggers at #UFC171: punch for punch @TWooodley has the highest WW Knockdown Rate-13%. Lawler-10%, Lombard/Hendricks-6%. Ave=4%

Myles Jury has the best head striking defense at #UFC171. He makes opponents miss 93% of the time. Next best is Tyron Woodley at 80%.

Alex Garcia’s UFC debut lasted just 43 seconds. He landed 9 total strikes, dropped his opponent and won by KO. He opens FS2 #UFC171 prelims

Best Takedown Defense at #UFC171 goes to Tyron Woodley-94%, Dennis Bermudez-89%, Hector Lombard-79%

Highest paced striker at #UFC171 is Jake Shields. He averages 17 strikes per minute while standing, and outworks opponents by 75%
[Ed. note: WTF???]

(Fan-made poster by Frank G.)

By Reed Kuhn

With UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler coming up this Saturday, I decided to put together another batch of interesting facts and stats about the event, all of which fit inside Twitter’s 140-character limit. Feel free to tweet ‘em out yourself during the event, and let us know which ones surprised you the most. (And of course, follow @cagepotatomma and @fightnomics if you’re not doing so already.) Let’s begin…

The Good

7 of the Top 15 ranked @ufc welterweights are competing at #UFC171. That includes numbers 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, 12, & 14. Post GSP-era starts now.

Welterweight sluggers at #UFC171: punch for punch @TWooodley has the highest WW Knockdown Rate-13%. Lawler-10%, Lombard/Hendricks-6%. Ave=4%

Myles Jury has the best head striking defense at #UFC171. He makes opponents miss 93% of the time. Next best is Tyron Woodley at 80%.

Alex Garcia’s UFC debut lasted just 43 seconds. He landed 9 total strikes, dropped his opponent and won by KO. He opens FS2 #UFC171 prelims

Best Takedown Defense at #UFC171 goes to Tyron Woodley-94%, Dennis Bermudez-89%, Hector Lombard-79%

Highest paced striker at #UFC171 is Jake Shields. He averages 17 strikes per minute while standing, and outworks opponents by 75%
[Ed. note: WTF???]

Jake Shields has already beaten 3 other ranked welterweights competing at #UFC171, including Carlos Condit, Robbie Lawler & Tyron Woodley

Arms Race: Ovince St. Preux has the longest reach at #UFC171 at 79”. His opponent Nikita Krylov has the 2^nd longest reach at 77.5”

Two fights into his UFC career and Nikita Krylov has yet to be hit with a head jab. He also hasn’t landed one yet himself #UFC171

.@jakeshieldsajj has spent more minutes in control on the mat than any other fighter at #UFC171 & 17% of that time was in full mount.

Carlos Condit & Jake Shields are most likely to advance position while on the mat at #UFC171. Each average several advances per takedown landed

The Bad

Hector Lombard (36) and Jakes Shields (35) are the two oldest competitors at #UFC171. When they face each other it’s 71 years combined age in the Octagon

With a reported reach of 62″, Jessica Andrade has the shortest wingspan of any fighter in UFC history #UFC171

Worst Takedown Defense to date at #UFC171 goes to Nikita Krylov. Opponents were 4 for 4 in takedown attempts against him

The most experienced UFC veteran at #UFC171 is Diego Sanchez. In his UFC career he’s been hit in the head 920 times total (5^th all-time)

Jake Shields is the least accurate striker at #UFC171, he only lands 12% of his power head strikes

No one at #UFC171 has attempted more takedowns in the UFC than Diego Sanchez. Of his 133 attempts, however, he has only landed 19%.

The Weird

There will be (at least) 11 Southpaws competing at #UFC171 which is more than any card in @ufc history. It’s the most UNorthodox card ever!

In the main event at #UFC171 both fighters will come out Southpaw. And with the nicknames given to them when they were two: Johny & Robbie.

Most likely to attempt a takedown at #UFC171 are Johny Hendricks & Jake Shields. Each average 1 attempt per minute they are on their feet.

Most likely to mix up his striking attack at #UFC171 is Carlos Condit. He throws body and leg kicks way more than average

Young Guns at #UFC171: Nikita Krylov, Kelvin Gastelum & Jessica Andrade are all just 22 years old. Justin Scoggins turns 22 in May

Arms Race: Jimmy Hettes will have the biggest Reach Advantage at #UFC171. His reach is 71” and he’s facing Dennis Bermudez-66”

Although Robbie Lawler rarely attempts takedowns, his success rate is 70%, the highest at #UFC171. Myles Jury is 2nd at 64%

Rick Story, the lowest of the 6 ranked Welterweights at #UFC171 has a UFC win over Johny Hendricks, the highest ranked Welterweight

No one at #UFC171 faced more takedowns than Carlos Condit (81). He defended 41% leaving opponents with a high collective takedown success %.

UFC 168 Tweet-Sized Stats & Facts: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

(Image via @spideranderson. Click to view full-size.)

By Reed Kuhn

While cranking through some statistical analysis of fighters competing at next weekend’s UFC 168 event, I came across a few tidbits that fit the character limit for tweetability. Tweet ‘em all you want, I’ll make more.

The Good:
• Anderson Silva has the highest Knockdown Rate of any fighter at #UFC168. 16% of his landed power head strikes cause a knockdown.

• In terms of Knockdown Rate, #UFC168 fighters Robert Peralta (14%) and Travis Browne (12%) are also way above average.

• Tibau vs Johnson at #UFC168 will be a rare Southpaw vs Southpaw matchup, or what I call a “Cyclone fight” due to the clockwise spin.

• Mostly likely to attempt takedowns at #UFC168 is Ronda Rousey who attempts 4 TDs per 5 min. round. Not that her rounds ever last that long.

• The most active standup striker at #UFC168 is Dennis Siver, who outworks his opponents by 59% in volume while standing.

• Hardest fighter to hit at #UFC168 is Anderson Silva, who avoids 82% of all head strikes thrown at him. Still, Weidman may only need one.

• Highest takedown defense at #UFC168 are Weidman & Browne, both 100%. Neither have been taken down despite each facing 7 attempts.

(Image via @spideranderson. Click to view full-size.)

By Reed Kuhn

The Good:
• Anderson Silva has the highest Knockdown Rate of any fighter at #UFC168. 16% of his landed power head strikes cause a knockdown.

• In terms of Knockdown Rate, #UFC168 fighters Robert Peralta (14%) and Travis Browne (12%) are also way above average.

• Tibau vs Johnson at #UFC168 will be a rare Southpaw vs. Southpaw matchup, or what I call a “Cyclone fight” due to the clockwise spin.

• Mostly likely to attempt takedowns at #UFC168 is Ronda Rousey who attempts 4 TDs per 5 min. round. Not that her rounds ever last that long.

• The most active standup striker at #UFC168 is Dennis Siver, who outworks his opponents by 59% in volume while standing.

• Hardest fighter to hit at #UFC168 is Anderson Silva, who avoids 82% of all head strikes thrown at him. Still, Weidman may only need one.

• Highest takedown defense at #UFC168 are Weidman & Browne, both 100%. Neither have been taken down despite each facing 7 attempts.

• The best takedown defense at #UFC168 is really Gleison Tibau at 92% against 62 total opponent attempts; he ranks #2 all-time behind GSP.

• Ronda Rousey has 0.72 submission attempts for every minute she has spent on the ground; closest 2nd at #UFC168 is Jim Miller at 0.37.

• Jim Miller has more total submission attempts in the UFC than any other fighter at #UFC168 with 29. One more & he wins an Octagon toaster.

• Denis Siver has the biggest pace advantage at #UFC168. He averages 12.8 Significant Strikes attempts/min, while Gamburyan averages 5.4.

• At 80.5” Uriah Hall will have the longest reach of any fighter at #UFC168, and >7” reach advantage over his opponent Chris Leben.

The Bad:
• Women’s champion Ronda Rousey will have the shortest reach of any fighter on the #UFC168 card at 66 inches. #irrelevant

• Weidman, Camoes, Brandao & Hall will all be facing southpaws. Generally, orthodox fighters fare a little worse when facing southpaws.

• The lowest paced standup striker at #UFC168 is Diego Brandao, who throws >40% fewer standup strike attempts than his opponents

• Lowest takedown defense at #UFC168 is Miesha Tate who only defended 1/5 attempts for 20%. Camoes not far behind (25%). But small samples.

• When fighting on the ground, Michael Johnson, Robert Peralta and Anderson Silva all mostly end up on their backs #UFC168

• Jim Miller and John Howard have both been swept for a ground position reversal 6 times by opponents, more than other fighters at #UFC168.

• 170’er William Macario is the only #UFC fighter ever who actually goes by the name “William.” There were 3 “Will”s though, and a “Willamy.”

The Ugly:
• Worst head striking defense at #UFC168 is Bobby Voelker, who only defends 57% of head strikes by opponents. Anderson Silva’s is best (82%).

• Both Rousey & Tate have very low head strike defense, meaning if they stand and trade they’re both going to look less pretty. #UFC168

• Denis Siver has suffered 6 knockdowns in his UFC career, more than anyone at #UFC168, despite having above average head strike defense.

• At 38.7 years old, Anderson Silva is the oldest fighter at #UFC168, meaning he is less likely to be submitted, but more likely to be KO’d.

• The worst Knockdown Resiliency rating at #UFC168 is Miesha Tate at 91%. She has suffered 3 knockdowns in Strikeforce/UFC.

• Despite having been KO’d by Weidman, Silva is still a -150 favorite at #UFC168, on par with when he fought Henderson -145 & Marquardt -150.

• Fabricio Camoes has the worst relative striking overall at #UFC168. His stats are below average in accuracy, power, pace & cage control.

• The final prelim bout pits some of the best head strike defense (Hall) vs some of the worst (Leben). Lots at stake in that fight. #UFC168

**********

Book description, via Amazon:

Fightnomics quantifies the underlying drivers of the world’s most exciting and fastest growing sport through deep analysis of Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) competition. Part Freakonomics and part Moneyball, Fightnomics is a statistical spotlight on the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) and the fighters who compete in the Octagon.

Does size matter?

Is the Southpaw Advantage real for MMA?

Is it better to be young or experienced in a fight?

How is the UFC Tale of the Tape lying to us?

What makes a strike significant?

What about Ring Rust, Octagon Jitters, or the Home Cage Advantage?

Just how accurate are betting odds?

Theories about how MMA works get put to the test with a little bit of science, and a whole lot of numbers. Fightnomics is the deepest and most complete analysis to date of historical UFC data that answers common, yet hotly debated questions about the sport. The fight game will never quite look the same once you’ve learned what really matters in a cage fight, and even a few surprising things that don’t.

CagePotato Databomb #1: How UFC Fights End by Division

(Click chart for full-size version.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

Other than Kenny Florian, who finishes fights? Let’s settle it once and for all. Using data provided by FightMetric, we looked at how every UFC fight ended from 2007 through the first half of 2012 — a total of 1438 total fights, excluding three flyweight contests — and then divvy’d it up by weight class to determine percentages for each method. For the first time ever, all these stats are in one place, in the chart above. Boom — you’ve just been databombed.

The conclusion: Size matters. Stoppages increase steadily by weight class; but while striking finish rates correlate strongly with increasing weight, submissions have a weaker, negative correlation. Keep in mind that bantamweights and featherweights have a short history in the UFC so far, so expect some possible smoothing out of those division trends over the next year.

Do any of these results surprise you? Next time the local Bullshido expert tells the bar that his favorite featherweight will finish the next fight, bet him the next round of drinks that it’ll go to the cards.

For more science and stats of MMA, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter or on Facebook. See MMA analytical research at www.fightnomics.com.

(Click chart for full-size version.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

For more science and stats of MMA, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter or on Facebook. See MMA analytical research at www.fightnomics.com.