UFC 173 Betting Preview: Renan Barao Heavily Favored vs. TJ Dillashaw

Renan Barao will be a heavy favorite at UFC 173 Saturday night when he puts his UFC bantamweight title on the line against TJ Dillashaw.
It has been over nine years and 32 decisions since the 27-year-old Brazilian last went down to defeat, the longest …

Renan Barao will be a heavy favorite at UFC 173 Saturday night when he puts his UFC bantamweight title on the line against TJ Dillashaw.

It has been over nine years and 32 decisions since the 27-year-old Brazilian last went down to defeat, the longest current win streak in MMA.

Dillashaw (9-2-0), ranked as the No. 4 challenger in the UFC bantamweight division, opened as a modest plus-325 underdog, per Odds Shark, when the fight was announced, but he is now pegged as a plus-575 underdog against Barao (32-1-0, one no-contest).

It is the first title shot for the 28-year-old Dillashaw, who was bumped up to the main event after Raphael Assuncao, the No. 2 bantamweight division challenger, was forced to decline the bout due to a rib injury suffered at UFC 170.

Assuncao defeated Dillashaw by split decision when the two battled at UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Shields back in October.

In the co-main event, undefeated Daniel Cormier (14-0-0) is heavily favored to defeat Dan Henderson in a light heavyweight bout that may be the most highly anticipated fight on the card at UFC 173.

Cormier, the No. 4 challenger in the division, has the respect of sportsbooks going into Saturday, with odds of minus-950 at some books monitored by Odds Shark.

Henderson (30-11-0), who currently sits as the division’s No. 6 challenger, is a tempting plus-650 long shot, and it is easy to understand why. The 43-year-old lost all three of his fights in 2013 but bounced back with a gutsy rally to defeat Mauricio Rua this past March at UFC Fight Night 38 with a third-round TKO after clearly losing the first two rounds.

Robbie Lawler (22-10-0) returns to action at UFC 173 in his first bout since losing by unanimous decision to Johny Hendricks in a UFC welterweight championship fight at UFC 171. Lawler is a minus-215 favorite against No. 5 welterweight challenger Jake Ellenberger (29-7-0).

The Juggernaut is a plus-185 underdog against Lawler but hopes to improve his division ranking and increase his chances of getting a title shot against Hendricks. Ellenberger is coming off a dreadfully boring loss by unanimous decision to Canadian Rory MacDonald last July at UFC on Fox 8.

 

Current UFC 173 odds 

Sam Sicilia               -150                      

Aaron Phillips           +130                     

Li JingLiang              +130                     

David Michaud          -150                      

Anthony Njokuani      -230                      

Vincent Pichel           +195                     

Al Iaquinta                -360                      

Mitch Clarke              +295                                     

Chico Camus             +295                     

Chris Holdsworth        -360                                                      

Tony Ferguson           -275                      

Katsunori Kikuno        +235                     

Mike Chiesa                -135                      

Francisco Trinaldo       +115                     

Francisco Rivera         +145                     

Takeya Mizugaki         -170                      

James Krause            +150                     

Jamie Varner              -175                      

Robbie Lawler            -215                      

Jake Ellenberger         +185                                                     

Dan Henderson           +650                     

Daniel Cormier            -950                      

TJ Dillashaw               +575                     

Renan Barao               -800     

 

Odds courtesy of BestUFCOdds.com unless otherwise noted.

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UFC 173: Barao vs. Dillashaw Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

The UFC is heading back to the fight capital of the world for UFC 173—Las Vegas.
Headlining the latest offering will be a bantamweight championship bout between No. 4-ranked TJ Dillashaw and champion Renan Barao.
Barao has been dominant in recent…

The UFC is heading back to the fight capital of the world for UFC 173Las Vegas.

Headlining the latest offering will be a bantamweight championship bout between No. 4-ranked TJ Dillashaw and champion Renan Barao.

Barao has been dominant in recent years. He is on a 22-fight win streak and is unbeaten in his last 33 fights. Has fighting the cream of the crop limited his finishing abilities? Absolutely not. He has finished his opponents in each of his title defenses.

Dillashaw comes in winning five of his last six bouts, and his lone loss in that span was a contentious decision to No. 2-ranked Raphael Assuncao that earned Fight of the Night honors.

Also in action, Dan Henderson and Daniel Cormier battle it out in a light heavyweight title eliminator.

The goal with these previews is to help you make informed decisions, not to give you the biggest underdogs. No one wants you to toss money away. If you do just want to toss a few bones and have fun, I’ve included a parlay opportunity at the end.

Ready to break down your betting chances for UFC 173? Here we go.

All odds provided by BestFightOdds.com.

Begin Slideshow

Ian McCall: Dillashaw Will Attempt to Stand with Barao and Get Knocked out

With more than a decade’s worth of experience in the fight game under his belt and long-term status as one of the world’s best flyweights, Ian McCall has a solid grasp on the action that takes place at the highest levels in MMA.
The 29-year-old Souther…

With more than a decade’s worth of experience in the fight game under his belt and long-term status as one of the world’s best flyweights, Ian McCall has a solid grasp on the action that takes place at the highest levels in MMA.

The 29-year-old Southern California native has been a staple in the realm of lighter weight fighters for years and was plying his trade long before the divisions south of 155 pounds came to share a piece of the spotlight. Over that period, “Uncle Creepy” came to be recognized as the best 125-pound fighter on the planet and is currently in the process of battling his way through the UFC’s flyweight division.

While setbacks, personal issues and injuries made the opening leg of the scrappy flyweight’s run under the UFC banner a rough one, he was able to find his footing against Iliarde Santos last August at UFC 163 and put things back on track in his fight career.

The former Tachi Palace champion will be looking to continue his climb up the divisional ladder when he squares off with Brad Pickett in the UFC’s return to Dublin for Fight Night 46 on July 19.

While his ultimate goal is to reign over the flyweight collective with championship gold around his waist, McCall is acutely aware there is much work to be done before that dream can become reality. With that in mind, the amount of experience and time McCall has logged competing at an elite level has given him a unique perspective of how things play out when the cage door closes, and he applies that knowledge to his personal matchups, as well as those his peers are involved in.

Due to McCall’s veteran status and time spent competing in both the flyweight and bantamweight divisions, MMA media staple Rick Lee sought his take on the upcoming 135-pound title bout between champion Renan Barao and T.J. Dillashaw this Saturday at UFC 173 in Las Vegas. The Brazilian wrecking machine will look to defend his recently minted undisputed title against the former prospect-turned-title challenger in the main event of the UFC’s annual Memorial Day event.

While the energetic and outspoken McCall acknowledges the improvements Dillashaw has made in the short amount of time he’s been competing under the UFC banner, the Dana Point-based fighter believes he is getting in way over his head by facing the 27-year-old Brazilian phenom.

Since entering the Zuffa fold in 2010, “The Baron” has defeated all nine of the men he’s faced inside the cage, with six of those opponents being turned into highlight-reel material due to the impressive—and sometimes brutal—nature of the way the bouts were finished. 

In addition to being recognized as one of the pound-for-pound best in the sport, Barao is also widely accepted as one of the most dangerous strikers in MMA. McCall believes UFC 173’s main event tilt is going to end badly for the Team Alpha Male fighter and cites the Sacramento-based collective’s track record against Nova Uniao fighters as the reason he can see Barao scoring a knockout victory on Saturday night. 

 

Duane Finley is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. All quotes are obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise.

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UFC 173’s Renan Barao: ‘T.J. Dillashaw Thinks He’s a Striker and He Isn’t’

T.J. Dillashaw has certainly made improvements to his striking skill set over the past two years, but apparently Renan Barao isn’t all too impressed.
The Ultimate Fighter 14 alum came into the UFC with strong wrestling skills and a well of athleticism …

T.J. Dillashaw has certainly made improvements to his striking skill set over the past two years, but apparently Renan Barao isn’t all too impressed.

The Ultimate Fighter 14 alum came into the UFC with strong wrestling skills and a well of athleticism that propelled him to victories in his first two showings inside the Octagon. While his talents were obvious, the 28-year-old’s attack was borderline one-dimensional, and he knew his arsenal of weapons would have to expand if he were ever going to make a run at the bantamweight title.

Enter Duane “Bang” Ludwig and the evolution of Team Alpha Male.

The retired UFC veteran set up shop as the head coach of the Sacramento-based collective, and the results were immediate. In addition to several standout performances by his teammates, Dillashaw earned impressive stoppage wins in his next two outings, as his much-improved striking dismantled Issei Tamura and Hugo Viana, respectively. While his next bout resulted in a controversial split-decision loss to Raphael Assuncao last October, Dillashaw‘s performance was solid as he gave the Brazilian veteran all he could handle throughout the 15-minute affair and proved he belonged in the upper tier of the bantamweight fold.

He would get things back on track in his next showing against Mike Easton at Fight Night 35 back in January as he worked a well-rounded game to earn a lopsided unanimous-decision victory. While his win over “The Hulk” put him within striking distance of a title shot, a booking against Takeya Mizugaki at UFC 173 meant it was going to take at least another win for a championship opportunity to materialize.

Yet, when the UFC’s annual Memorial Day event lost its headlining bout, the organization tapped the surging contender to face bantamweight champion Renan Barao in the main event on May 24.

“The Baron” has been a wrecking machine since joining the UFC in 2011. In just three years, the Nova Uniao product has racked up seven consecutive victories on an impressive run that landed him a seat on the bantamweight throne. Those victories also extended his overall unbeaten streak to 32-straight bouts—a monstrous number in the modern era of MMA—and put his well-rounded attack on display at every turn.

The matchup between Barao and Dillashaw this Saturday night in Las Vegas will pit the rising talent against one of the most dangerous stand-up fighters in MMA. While Dillashaw has certainly made improvements in the striking department, Barao believes the California native is confused about the type of fighter he is, and that will create the opportunity he needs to end the fight.

“I believe T.J. [Dillashaw] thinks he is a striker now, and he isn’t,” Barao told Bleacher Report through the assistance of a translator. “I think he will mess up and make mistakes in this fight, and this will present the chance for me to finish him. I’m very calm and ready for this fight, and I believe I will win this fight because I’m the better fighter.”

While the two fighters will meet for the first time on May 24 in Las Vegas, their respective camps are certainly familiar with one another. The team at Nova Uniao holds three victories in title bouts over the Sacramento-based collective, with two of those wins coming from Barao defeating Dillashaw‘s team leader and mentor, Urijah Faber. “The California Kid” was also dealt a lopsided loss by Barao teammate and close friend, Jose Aldo, when the two top featherweights scrapped it out for the 145-pound crown under the WEC banner back in 2010.

Although Barao doesn’t pay much mind to the past holding any sway on what is yet to come, he does credit his coach Andre “Dede” Pederneiras, Aldo and the rest of their close-knit team for driving him to be the best fighter he can be.

“We have an amazing team at Nova Uniao,” Barao said. “We have great fighters that all push one another to be better. ‘Dede’ is an amazing guy. He has fought in the past and is very strategic, and that helps us very much. Aldo is like a brother to me, and I feel like I learn something new from him every day. It is a great team and an amazing thing to be a part of.” 

 

Duane Finley is a featured columnist at Bleacher Report. All quotes are obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise. 

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UFC 173: TJ Dillashaw Doesn’t Have a Hope Against Renan Barao

Unfortunate reality alert: Saturday’s UFC 173 main event is basically a waste of everyone’s time.
TJ Dillashaw is challenging Renan Barao for the bantamweight title in the main event, and there’s almost no hope he’ll wrest the gold from the Brazilian.

Unfortunate reality alert: Saturday’s UFC 173 main event is basically a waste of everyone’s time.

TJ Dillashaw is challenging Renan Barao for the bantamweight title in the main event, and there’s almost no hope he’ll wrest the gold from the Brazilian.

That’s not to say the card is not without its charm, as there are two other solid fights being offered in Jake Ellenberger/Robbie Lawler and Dan Henderson/Daniel Cormier. But the main event is the epitome of hopelessness on the battlefield. It’s a panzer tank running over a Volkswagen, a dinosaur competing with an iguana for a food source.

And you know what’s even worse? Dillashaw is good. Like, really good. “Potential champion” good.

He’s just not that good yet.

In the meantime, he’s being thrown to the wolves at least a year too soon because the promotion’s original headliner fell apart, and someone’s gotta fight someone to justify charging that sweet pay-per-view cheddar.

That means, very much to his own chagrin, Dillashaw doesn’t have a hope. He’s in far too deep, far too soon, and it’s going to show Saturday night.

Barao, even considering the UFC’s comically hard sell of his talents, warrants incredible respect. Though he never formally beat Dominick Cruz to earn his title, there are few people who would suggest he’s not the best 135-pounder in the world today.

He hasn’t lost since his debut fight in 2005, and under the Zuffa umbrella, he’s a 9-0 champion that’s stopped six of those opponents. He’s the type of killer who, if he were 70 pounds heavier, would be on every piece of UFC merchandise imaginable.

Conversely, Dillashaw is 5-2 in the UFC and is just over two years removed from a stint on The Ultimate Fighter as a skilled but green athlete that was learning the ropes in MMA.

From the outset, there was little question he was a talent to watch but definitely not the type one would have expected to see in a title fight after seven UFC appearances. He was more of a project, a guy that could take a steady road to relevance if handled right.

Now, just as he’s coming into his own, his development is destined to be damaged irreparably by a title fight he didn’t really earn and isn’t really ready for. That’s unfortunate on its own, but when one considers the challenge he could have been for Barao had he fought a couple of more contender fights, it’s even worse.

Based on his current trajectory, it wouldn’t have been hard to imagine Dillashaw becoming a major player at bantamweight over the next year had he not been put in his current situation.

His stand-up has been improving rapidly, and his wrestling base provides the type of unshakable stability that every fighter hopes to achieve in the cage. His fights have also been growing increasingly more interesting the more he competes, which is the type of pattern the UFC likes to see.

He looked excellent in his win over Mike Easton earlier this year, and his loss to Raphael Assuncao before that was one many thought he’d won. Prior to those two signature showings, he was riding a three-fight stoppage streak against lesser competition in a run that indicated he might one day be ready for big things.

Now, those things have come to his doorstep much earlier than anticipated, and there’s no telling how it might derail him.

There’s no clear blueprint for beating Barao right now. Actually, there’s no real blueprint for even competing with him. He’s crushing everyone.

To have a hope, contenders are going to need to be appropriately groomed and experienced, or they’re going to end up like the past 32 guys who’ve tested Barao: losers in varying degrees of post-fight agony.

Dillashaw hasn’t been groomed appropriately, and he isn’t sufficiently experienced yet, though there were encouraging signs that he one day would be. As a result, he’s likely to be next on that list of Barao victims, which is a true waste of his athleticism and growing prowess in the sport.

 

Follow me on Twitter @matthewjryder

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Renan Barao Says Finishing Fights Will Become Harder the Longer He’s Champ

UFC bantamweight champion Renan Barao has finished all three of his opponents since winning the interim 135-pound championship against Urijah Faber at UFC 149, but this impressive string of finishes may be near its end.
First, Barao’s friend and traini…

UFC bantamweight champion Renan Barao has finished all three of his opponents since winning the interim 135-pound championship against Urijah Faber at UFC 149, but this impressive string of finishes may be near its end.

First, Barao‘s friend and training partner, UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo, said he expects Barao to become a “more cautious” combatant moving forward. The champion, after all, has a lot to lose, and the challenger has everything to gain. 

Responding to Aldo’s comments at a UFC media day in Sao Paolo, Brazil, Wednesday, Barao did not disagree. 

In fact, the 135-pound champ wholeheartedly endorsed his teammate’s sentiments, saying (quotes via BloodyElbow’s Fernando Arbex): 

I think so, because it’s hard when you are the champion. All eyes are on you. The other athletes are studying your game. Sometimes you win a fight and people say it was easy, but it has been difficult since 10 years until now. Of course the plan is to finish fights, but it won’t always happen.

To Barao‘s credit, he has already fought (and finished) a tough lineup of bantamweights during his reign as champion. 

He first defended his interim championship by submitting young bantamweight powerhouse Michael McDonald at UFC on FX 7 via arm-triangle choke in Round 4 of their five-round affair. Despite getting caught by hard punches on several occasions in this fight, Barao fought through adversity and cemented his status as champion with the late-round submission.

After that, Barao drubbed Eddie Wineland at UFC 165, winning via highlight-reel spinning-back kick early in Round 2.  

Most recently, Barao finished Team Alpha Male’s ever-popular and charismatic leader Urijah Faber via TKO in just under four minutes. While the stoppage was met with controversy, Barao absolutely dominated the bout to that point, and he solidified the fact that he is the unquestioned king at 135 pounds. 

Now, Barao faces yet another Team Alpha Male product in T.J. Dillashaw in the UFC 173 main event on May 24. 

This bout was arranged on semi-short notice, as Dillashaw got called to the plate from nowhere after the event’s original main event between middleweight champion Chris Weidman and challenger Lyoto Machida got scrapped due to a knee injury suffered by Weidman leading up to the fight. 

Despite his 1-1 record in his last two fights, Dillashaw has looked every bit the part of a UFC title challenger since coming off his TKO loss to current flyweight contender John Dodson at The Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale in December 2011. 

Since that time, Dillashaw has posted a 5-1 record inside the Octagon, with three of those victories coming via knockout or submission. His lone loss during that time was a split-decision defeat to Raphael Assuncao at UFC Fight Night 29, a fight which many fans felt should have gone Dillashaw‘s way

That said, Barao figures to be a heavy favorite going in to the match, but Dillashaw has certainly proven to be a tough out for anybody since his time on the UFC’s hit reality TV show The Ultimate Fighter

Do you think Aldo’s words will immediately become true and Barao‘s streak of finishes will end with Dillashaw

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