Author: Mike Pickett

UFC 173 Betting Preview: Renan Barao Heavily Favored vs. TJ Dillashaw

Renan Barao will be a heavy favorite at UFC 173 Saturday night when he puts his UFC bantamweight title on the line against TJ Dillashaw.
It has been over nine years and 32 decisions since the 27-year-old Brazilian last went down to defeat, the longest …

Renan Barao will be a heavy favorite at UFC 173 Saturday night when he puts his UFC bantamweight title on the line against TJ Dillashaw.

It has been over nine years and 32 decisions since the 27-year-old Brazilian last went down to defeat, the longest current win streak in MMA.

Dillashaw (9-2-0), ranked as the No. 4 challenger in the UFC bantamweight division, opened as a modest plus-325 underdog, per Odds Shark, when the fight was announced, but he is now pegged as a plus-575 underdog against Barao (32-1-0, one no-contest).

It is the first title shot for the 28-year-old Dillashaw, who was bumped up to the main event after Raphael Assuncao, the No. 2 bantamweight division challenger, was forced to decline the bout due to a rib injury suffered at UFC 170.

Assuncao defeated Dillashaw by split decision when the two battled at UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Shields back in October.

In the co-main event, undefeated Daniel Cormier (14-0-0) is heavily favored to defeat Dan Henderson in a light heavyweight bout that may be the most highly anticipated fight on the card at UFC 173.

Cormier, the No. 4 challenger in the division, has the respect of sportsbooks going into Saturday, with odds of minus-950 at some books monitored by Odds Shark.

Henderson (30-11-0), who currently sits as the division’s No. 6 challenger, is a tempting plus-650 long shot, and it is easy to understand why. The 43-year-old lost all three of his fights in 2013 but bounced back with a gutsy rally to defeat Mauricio Rua this past March at UFC Fight Night 38 with a third-round TKO after clearly losing the first two rounds.

Robbie Lawler (22-10-0) returns to action at UFC 173 in his first bout since losing by unanimous decision to Johny Hendricks in a UFC welterweight championship fight at UFC 171. Lawler is a minus-215 favorite against No. 5 welterweight challenger Jake Ellenberger (29-7-0).

The Juggernaut is a plus-185 underdog against Lawler but hopes to improve his division ranking and increase his chances of getting a title shot against Hendricks. Ellenberger is coming off a dreadfully boring loss by unanimous decision to Canadian Rory MacDonald last July at UFC on Fox 8.

 

Current UFC 173 odds 

Sam Sicilia               -150                      

Aaron Phillips           +130                     

Li JingLiang              +130                     

David Michaud          -150                      

Anthony Njokuani      -230                      

Vincent Pichel           +195                     

Al Iaquinta                -360                      

Mitch Clarke              +295                                     

Chico Camus             +295                     

Chris Holdsworth        -360                                                      

Tony Ferguson           -275                      

Katsunori Kikuno        +235                     

Mike Chiesa                -135                      

Francisco Trinaldo       +115                     

Francisco Rivera         +145                     

Takeya Mizugaki         -170                      

James Krause            +150                     

Jamie Varner              -175                      

Robbie Lawler            -215                      

Jake Ellenberger         +185                                                     

Dan Henderson           +650                     

Daniel Cormier            -950                      

TJ Dillashaw               +575                     

Renan Barao               -800     

 

Odds courtesy of BestUFCOdds.com unless otherwise noted.

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UFC 172 Odds Favor Jon Jones vs. Glover Teixeira, Davis Chalk vs. Johnson

UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones will be looking for his 11th straight victory when he enters the Octagon on Saturday at UFC 172 to take on top contender Glover Teixeira.
Jones, currently a minus-550 UFC 172 betting favorite on Odds Shark …

UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones will be looking for his 11th straight victory when he enters the Octagon on Saturday at UFC 172 to take on top contender Glover Teixeira.

Jones, currently a minus-550 UFC 172 betting favorite on Odds Shark to successfully defend his title for the seventh time, returns to action for the first time since his epic battle against Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 165. That fight was generally regarded as one of 2013’s best fights but failed to trigger a rematch.

Gustafsson, who went into last September’s fight as a plus-500 underdog, took Jones to the brink in a slugfest that solidified the Swede’s position as the No. 1 contender in the UFC light heavyweight division.

Jones will instead face Teixeira (22-2-0), who has earned a title shot by winning his last 20 fights including three first-round victories in five fights since joining the UFC.

Despite his recent success, Teixeira remains a plus-375 long shot to take the title from Jones, who has been the target of recent trash talk by Gustafsson and No. 4 contender Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis, who will face No. 14 Anthony Johnson at UFC 172.

Davis has a career record of 12-1-0 with one no-contest, including a first-round submission of Gustafsson. He is pegged as a minus-210 favorite over Johnson, who last appeared in the Octagon in January 2012 in a first-round loss to Vitor Belfort.

Johnson sports odds of plus-170, a remarkable number given his lengthy time away from the Octagon and checkered 16-4-0 record. His greatest advantage may be Davis’ apparent preoccupation with Jones, with whom he has verbally sparred in interviews and press conferences leading up to Saturday night.

Davis has made it clear he wants a shot at Jones, but he will only get his chance by first disposing of Johnson.

In other UFC 172 action, Luke Rockhold (11-2-0) is a heavy minus-800 favorite over Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch (17-6-0) in a battle of 185-pounders. Boetsch, meanwhile, is pegged as a plus-500 underdog and could be in serious trouble against the powerful and more athletic Rockhold.

Joseph Benavidez, the No. 2 contender in the flyweight division, is pegged at minus-400 against No. 8 Tim Elliott, who sits at plus-300. Benavidez (19-4-0) is coming off a recent loss to Demetrious Johnson after suffering the first KO of his career at the hands of the UFC flyweight champion.

Elliott is also coming off a loss, as Ali Bagautinov defeated him by decision at UFC 167.

 

UFC 172 betting odds, courtesy of BestUFCOdds.com

Patrick Williams +110 
Chris Beal   -140  
Danny Castillo  -280   
Charlie Brenneman  +220
Beth Correia -120 
Jessamyn Duke -110  
Takanori Gomi    -225 
Isaac Vallie-Flagg  +175
Vagner Rocha  +230
Joe Ellenberger -300
Luke Rockhold -800
Tim Boetsch +500
Joseph Benavidez -400
Tim Elliott  +300
Max Holloway +130
Andre Fili -160
Jim Miller  -200
Yancy Medeiros  +160 
Anthony Johnson +170
Phil Davis
 		-210 
Jon Jones -550
Glover Teixeira +375

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UFC 167: Georges St-Pierre vs. Johny Hendricks Betting Odds and Predictions

Georges St-Pierre doesn’t like getting hit, and he has enjoyed a long reign atop the UFC’s 170-pound divisional by avoiding direct hits.
But his elusiveness and ability to impose his will on an opponent get its biggest challenge in Las Vegas on S…

Georges St-Pierre doesn’t like getting hit, and he has enjoyed a long reign atop the UFC’s 170-pound divisional by avoiding direct hits.

But his elusiveness and ability to impose his will on an opponent get its biggest challenge in Las Vegas on Saturday as UFC 167 arrives after months of hype.

Johny Hendricks, the Oklahoman wrestler with a hillbilly drawl and a left hand that puts men to sleep, is a significant underdog on the UFC 167 betting lines at all sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

But as he showed against top welterweights Jon Fitch (asleep in 12 seconds) and Martin Kampmann (out cold in 46 seconds), he has more than a puncher’s chance of winning here.

GSP, the French-speaking Montrealer who has been champion since 2007, is a -260 favorite, making Hendricks an attractive +220 underdog payout.

“Johny has promised to put his hands on GSP and he is supremely confident in his punching power,” said Jack Randall, an analyst at OddsShark.com, who was interviewed Friday. “But he showed in his last fight against Carlos Condit that he can get tired swinging for the fences, which could spell his doom with the relentless pace GSP will push.”

Indeed, Hendricks reverted to his wrestling background late in the Condit fight, after he started losing exchanges in the stand-up. He will not have the same wrestling advantage against St-Pierre, who is regarded as one of MMA’s best on the mat.

“The underdog line is tempting on Hendricks and we have seen wagers going on the UNDER 4.5 rounds. The rationale is that Johny might knock out Georges early, but if he doesn’t, Georges might grind out a submission later in the fight.”

Odds Shark Prediction: GSP by submission

The card is stacked with a truly amazing lineup of crowd-pleasing fights as the company marks its 20th anniversary. The man who won the first two UFC events—Brazil’s Royce Gracie—has been in Las Vegas promoting the fight.

The co-main event puts perennial title challengers Chael Sonnen and Rashad Evans in the Octagon together. Evans was a -170 favorite over his FoxSports1 analyst buddy.

BestUFCOdds.com Prediction: Sonnen by decision

Current UFC 167 odds, from Bovada, check for line updates closer to fight time:

Gian Villante -350    
Cody Donovan 265
    
Will Campuzano 325    
Sergio Pettis -450    

Jason High -300    
Anthony Lapsley 230    

Edwin Figueroa 265    
Erik Perez -350    

Rick Story -220    
Brian Ebersole 170    

Ed Herman 170    
Thales Leites -210    

Evan Dunham -110    
Donald Cerrone -120    

Tim Elliott -155    
Ali Bagautinov 125    

Rashad Evans -190    
Chael Sonnen 155    

Rory MacDonald -365
Robbie Lawler +275

Josh Koscheck -110    
Tyron Woodley -120    

Johny Hendricks 210    
Georges St-Pierre -270   

 

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UFC Fight Night 30 Betting: Machida Favored over Munoz

The next challenger for the UFC middleweight strap will probably be decided on Saturday when Mark Munoz and Lyoto Machida clash at UFC Fight Night 30 in England.
And the underdog Munoz is a very tempting play at more than 3-1 odds, according to MMA han…

The next challenger for the UFC middleweight strap will probably be decided on Saturday when Mark Munoz and Lyoto Machida clash at UFC Fight Night 30 in England.

And the underdog Munoz is a very tempting play at more than 3-1 odds, according to MMA handicappers at Odds Shark.

“If Munoz can get a hold of Machida and use his wrestling, then this is a fight where Munoz bettors can profit,” said Jack Randall of Odds Shark in an interview with me on Friday. “But Machida is slick and elusive and he is also the bigger man in this fight.”

Indeed, Machida is a former UFC champion at 205 pounds who has to cut weight to make his debut at 185 pounds. He has been in the Octagon against the best light heavyweights (Jon Jones, Shogun Rua, Rashad Evans and Dan Henderson, to name a few), and the fear for Munoz backers is that “The Dragon” will be both more elusive and more powerful.

Machida naysayers point to the fact that all four of his career losses have come in his last seven fights as evidence of the Brazilian’s decline. His lame loss to Phil Davis at UFC 163 and uninspired win over Henderson in recent fights have fueled this opinion.

The co-main event on the card from Manchester is a scrap between former lightweight contenders who are trying to remain relevant at 155 pounds.

Ross Pearson is a small underdog but will have the home crowd on his side when he faces explosive Melvin Guillard. Pearson was plus-115 at most sportsbooks as of Friday and has won two straight since getting knocked out by Cub Swanson at UFC on FX 4.

Guillard meanwhile can win quickly with a flurry of kicks and punches or lose quickly via submission when he gets sloppy. He has lost four of six overall and tends to lose whenever he steps up in class.

The biggest underdog on the card is UFC newcomer Robert Whiteford, who challenges American Jimy Hettes as a minus-525 favorite. Both men are 10-1; Whiteford has won 10 straight, while Hettes is coming off a 13-month layoff since losing his first pro fight last September.

 

UFC Fight Night 30 Odds (courtesy of BestUFCOdds.com)              

Michael Kuiper  (-275)  Brad Scott (+235) 
Jim Hettes (-525)      Robert Whiteford (+415)    
Cole Miller (-190) Andy Ogle (+165) 
Rosi Sexton (-120)  Jessica Andrade (+100)
Al Iaquinta (-145) Piotr Hallmann (+125)
Andrew Craig (-185) Luke Barnatt (+160)
John Lineker (-380) Phil Harris (+315)   
Alessio Sakara (-210) Nicholas Musoke (+175)
Norman Parke (-155)  Jon Tuck (+135) 
Jimi Manuwa (-165)  Ryan Jimmo (+145)
Melvin Guillard (-135) Ross Pearson (+115)
Lyoto Machida (-380) Mark Munoz (+315)  

      

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UFC 158 Betting Odds Favor Georges St-Pierre over Nick Diaz

Can Nick Diaz do with his words what most MMA observers believe he can’t do with his actions?That is, can his trash talk get under the skin of welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre to the point where GSP will make a mistake Saturday in the Main Event…

Can Nick Diaz do with his words what most MMA observers believe he can’t do with his actions?

That is, can his trash talk get under the skin of welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre to the point where GSP will make a mistake Saturday in the Main Event at UFC 158 in Montreal?

It’s one of the most anticipated UFC matchups in years, and St-Pierre—No. 2 on most pound-for-pound lists—is a heavy favorite to defend his title. And one sportsbook is seeing steady and heavy UFC 158 odds action on GSP at -500 to win and on Diaz to pull the upset at +400.

“We spoke with a few online shops and it’s always the same with a GSP fight—he is a great draw for the sport and the sportsbook,” according to Jack Randall of OddsShark.com, who provided an email interview last night.

For bettors who don’t trust Diaz, the former Strikeforce champ, as a roughly 4/1 underdog, there are intriguing MMA prop options that could offer better value. The “fight goes to decision” option comes with a -260 price and “St-Pierre by decision” costs -240.

GSP has won 10 straight since 2007, but his last five fights went to a decision. Many handicappers are predicting a unanimous decision victory, but not Randall.

“I think GSP is so angry with Diaz‘s disrespect that he will really try to punish him and I foresee a stoppage later in the fight, maybe the fourth round,” he said.

The co-main event of the UFC 158 fight card is more closely handicapped and offers the MMA bettor a classic technical striker versus grappler-with-power matchup. Carlos Condit will face Johny Hendricks in a No. 1 contender fight with the winner likely getting the next shot at the Welterweight strap.

Hendricks is currently a -135 favorite at Bovada.lv while Condit will pay +115. This fight is too close to call, with The Natural Born Killer capable of defending any style and with Bigg Rigg a threat to end the fight early or grind out a win with his superior wrestling.

The Jake Ellenberger vs. Nate Marquardt matchup looks like it’s the best option for an underdog payday with Marquardt currently handicapped as the +145 underdog. Ellenberger is coming at a 5Dimes price of -165 but he could easily be dominated by Marquardt with dirty boxing and Octagon control.

Other action, with almost every scrap involving a Canadian fighting on home soil, includes (UFC 158 odds courtesy of OddsShark.com):

Nick Ring (-115) vs. Chris Camozzi (-105)

Colin Fletcher (+230) vs. Mike Ricci (-270)

Issei Tamura (+350) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (-530)

Quinn Mulhern (+270) vs. Rick Story (-390)

Daron Cruickshank (-195) vs. John Makdessi (+155)

Dan Miller (+190) vs. Jordan Mein (-270)

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