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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 144 Edition

(In the main event, actor Ryan Reynolds defends his belt against a 100% Asian version of Ben Henderson. Plus, Rampage Jackson faces off against a prime Wes Sims. The referee for this evening will be Dan Miragliotta.)

The UFC’s return to Japan this weekend features plenty of attractive opportunities to earn money without working for it. So where do the edges lie? How much better will the UFC’s Japanese stars look on their home turf? And should you really be betting money with tax season coming up? (Just kidding, that one was a trick question.) Complete UFC 144: Edgar vs. Henderson odds are below, via BestFightOdds, followed by our occasionally-helpful betting advice. Check it out, and be sure to come back to CagePotato Saturday night for our liveblog of the fights, starting with the FX prelims broadcast at 8 p.m. ET.

MAIN CARD
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Ben Henderson (+115)
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-237) vs. Ryan Bader (+220)
Cheick Kongo (-270) vs. Mark Hunt (+270)
Jake Shields (-300) vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (+269)
Yushin Okami (-331) vs. Tim Boetsch (+300)
Hatsu Hioki (-167) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+155)
Anthony Pettis (-220) vs. Joe Lauzon (+220)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)
Takanori Gomi (-200) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (+175)
Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto (-288) vs. Vaughan Lee (+275)
Riki Fukuda (-300) vs. Steve Cantwell (+258)
Takeya Mizugaki (-200) vs. Chris Cariaso (+172)

PRELIMINARY BOUT (Facebook)
Tiequan Zhang (-250) vs. Issei Tamura (+250)

The Main Event: At this point, we shouldn’t have to tell you not to bet against Frankie Edgar when a belt is on the line. The question is, do you put money on him at these odds, or awkwardly back out of the room? I have faith in Edgar’s tenacity, but Henderson has looked so outstanding in his 3-0 UFC stint that at the very least, it’ll be a dogfight decided on the slimmest of margins. I’m not leaving my money in the hands of the judges, and the smartest bet here is no bet at all.

The Co-Main Event: You have to understand how much this fight means to Quinton Jackson. His future is on the line, following his failed title challenge against Jon Jones last September. He’ll be fighting in front of his family, and the Japanese fans that made him a star in the first place. In short, motivation will not be an issue. Meanwhile, Ryan Bader will be stepping into Rampage’s world on Saturday night, and the enormity of the fight and the Saitama Super Arena crowd might be overwhelming. I think this is a favorable matchup for Rampage, as long as he can dodge Bader’s power-punches and stuff most of his takedowns. A modest bet on the favorite makes sense.

The Good ‘Dogs: Didn’t we learn our lesson when Joe Lauzon was marked as a 4-1 underdog against Melvin Guillard? Never sleep on J-Lau. Once again, the oddsmakers have set Joe up as the underdog, even though Pettis hasn’t quite lived up to his hype since coming over to the UFC. As soon as the fight hits the mat, the odds shift dramatically in Lauzon’s favor. I’m also leaning towards Bart Palaszewski over Hatsu Hioki — simply based on their Octagon debuts at UFC 137, in which Bart destroyed Tyson Griffin and Hioki barely got past George Roop. I’d also point out that Kid Yamamoto is a strong favorite only because he’s got home-field advantage; it’s certainly not based on his performance in the UFC.

The Reader-Submitted Parlay: “Shields, Kongo, Edgar pays out 108 on a 50 dollar bet. Simple, easy and a lock.” (Aaron B.)
We say: Shields and Kongo, sure. But again, I’m staying away from wagering on the main event. So how ’bout…

Official CagePotato Parlay: Kongo + Shields + Okami + Zhang. $10 gets you a $17.38 profit. I know, that barely covers bus fare, but you’ll want to play it safe if you’re chasing underdogs with the rest of your money.

Suggested wager for a $50 stake
– $20 on Jackson
– $10 on Lauzon
– $10 on Palaszewski
– $10 on the parlay

UFC 144: Which Fighter Has The Most to Lose?

For Ryan “Darth” Bader, a win at UFC 144 is an imperative. However, a loss will be catastrophic to him as a person, but more importantly for his once budding MMA career. The former NCAA Division-l standout landed at the gates of the UFC hea…

For Ryan “Darth” Bader, a win at UFC 144 is an imperative. However, a loss will be catastrophic to him as a person, but more importantly for his once budding MMA career.

The former NCAA Division-l standout landed at the gates of the UFC headquarters having ridden a seven-fight win streak. He continued that streak with five victories—most notably against Keith Jardine and Antonio “Minotouro” Nogueira.

It was Bader’s win over Nogueira that propelled him to the status “future of the light heavyweight division,” and an eventual matchup with Jon “Bones” Jones.

What Bader wasn’t to know is that if he’d won that bout, he could’ve easily been the one vying for the 205-pound gold in lieu of Jones, who now reigns supreme over that weight class.

A loss to Jones was nothing to be ashamed about, as the young phenom had been destined for great things, but to call out and then lose to a fading star in the guise of Tito Ortiz was an ignominy he’d sure like to put down as an aberration.

In the co-main event, Bader will be throwing down with a true and tested wily old fox by the name of Quinton Jackson, a former UFC light heavyweight titlist and a hero to the Japanese fans from his days in Pride—the latter of which could spell bad news for Bader, as Rampage will be hell bent on putting on a show for the home crowd.

That said, victory is a must if he’s to continue his redemption (a first-round KO of Jason Brilz at UFC 139), as well as the opportunity to climb up the ranks and back into title contention.

However, a defeat and it’s back to the drawing board, headlining preliminary televised cards whilst facing an arduous journey back to the top. And if he were to register a second loss in his next bout, it could signal a swift exit from Zuffa-based promotion.

At UFC 144, Bader has the most to lose.

UFC 144 is scheduled for Feb. 25, 2012, at the Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan.

For additional information, follow Nedu Obi on Twitter.

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Video: Countdown to UFC 144

(Video courtesy of Sapo/IronForgesIron)

If your cable provider doesn’t offer Fuel and you missed the UFC 144 countdown show last night, not to worry, we got you covered again.

It’s been a quiet week media-wise for the event, mostly because the majority of the fighters on the card and the few reporters planning on attending the show have been travelling to Japan. It seems like more focus of MMA news this week has been on the upcoming Strikeforce card, which is curious considering Saturday night’s event is a decent one.

Enjoy it. After this event and UFC: Alves vs. Kampmann on March 2, there won’t be another show until UFC: Sweden on April 14. That’s a six week stretch without a UFC show. At least our wives will be happy.

Anyway, this countdown show was a decent one. It’s interesting to hear guys like ‘Rampage’ and Akiyama talk about the difference between the North American and Japanese crowds, especially when it was like comparing apples to oranges between PRIDE and the UFC. Now we’ll finally get to see the disparity first hand.

I think I was most impressed with the level of respect Akiyama showed his opponent, Jake Shields, whom he praised for his skill level and fight smarts. It’s rare to see that in a pre-fight interview. He even found a way to make boring and conservative sound better by saying that Jake “isn’t explosive.” ‘Sexyama’ could sell a Kia to a BMW enthusiast.

Check out part two after the jump.

(Video courtesy of Sapo/IronForgesIron)

If your cable provider doesn’t offer Fuel and you missed the UFC 144 countdown show last night, not to worry, we got you covered again.

Check out part two after the jump.

(Video courtesy of Sapo/IronForgesIron)

Countdown to UFC 144 Tonight on FUEL TV

The UFC returns tonight with its HBO 24/7 knockoff, “Countdown” show for UFC 144: “Edgar vs. Henderson. As usual it will featuring a behind-the-scenes look at Frankie Edgar (the champ) who is preparing to defend his title against former WEC champ Ben Henderson this Saturday at the Saitama Super Arena in Japan. Personally we are hoping to get a closer glimpse into Rampage’s camp and the lead up to his much anticipated return to Japan. We shall see.

Catch the first installment tonight at 9 p.m. ET on FUEL TV.

UFC "Quick Break": Rampage Jackson vs. Ryan Bader

UFC 144 QB: Part 2Whether you just have a short downtime during work, or don’t want a lengthy breakdown, these “Quick Breaks” are for you. “Quick Breaks” are short breakdowns of upcoming fights. In a summed up focus of strengths, weaknesses…

UFC 144 QB: Part 2

Whether you just have a short downtime during work, or don’t want a lengthy breakdown, these “Quick Breaks” are for you. “Quick Breaks” are short breakdowns of upcoming fights. In a summed up focus of strengths, weaknesses and variables, this will analyze what could happen in the fight, and end with a prediction.

UFC 144 (Japan) is coming to us on Saturday, and promises a night of exciting matchups. The lightweight title is on the line, but is just the icing on the cake for this layered card. The co-main event of the evening, though, is one that Japanese fans are certainly looking forward to.

In the blue corner, you have Ryan Bader. A strong wrestler and overall well-rounded fighter, Bader is looking to get a win streak going again since losing two in a row. He is currently 13-2, and is coming off a knockout win. His confidence is up from that win, and he was humbled by his loss to Tito Ortiz before that.

While not having a history of them, his only blemishes on his record are from submission chokes. For the two chokes he has lost to, his only submission wins were from two chokes as well. However, the man he is slated to face is one to put his opponents to sleep in another fashion.

In the red corner you have Quinton Jackson. “Rampage,” as he is more commonly called, is a lethal striker and has vicious counter punches. His recent years have seen more decision wins, but that may be due to the fact none of these guys want to stand in close quarters with him.

Rampage is a legend in Pride, the premiere organization back in the day, which was held in the same arena as the UFC returns to this Saturday. Rampage might be popular in America, but he is truly a superstar in Japan.

Bader will want to take this fight to Jackson. Submissions are a little removed from Jackson’s game these days, with his last one in 2001; but since both Bader and himself are strong wrestlers, it may keep the fight standing.

Both men have raw power in their hands, and it will be interesting to see if one can score a knockout. Bader has never been knocked out, or TKO’d in his career, and Rampage hasn’t lost via KO/TKO since his Pride days.

A factor that might have a big effect on the fight is how motivated Rampage will be, since he will be in front of a big crowd who supports him. A full Saitama Arena of fans all cheering for Rampage might be enough push for him to really look for a highlight reel finish. Also, having the crowd rooting for Jackson might add more pressure to Bader, so how he handles it is also up for question.

This fight should be a great one to watch, and seeing Rampage fight on the Japanese stage is an exciting aspect already. Both men will be looking to put on a show, and fans will not want to miss this bout.

Prediction: Rampage Jackson wins via KO/TKO late in the first round.

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UFC 144: Quinton Jackson vs. Ryan Bader Breakdown

UFC 144 comes to a head this weekend as Frankie Edgar defends his title against surging lightweight Bensen Henderson.While the two men are helping to usher in the return of the Octagon in Japan, the real star of the show is Quinton “Rampage” Jackson.Ra…

UFC 144 comes to a head this weekend as Frankie Edgar defends his title against surging lightweight Bensen Henderson.

While the two men are helping to usher in the return of the Octagon in Japan, the real star of the show is Quinton “Rampage” Jackson.

Rampage, a long time veteran of the now-defunct Pride organization, cultivated a huge fan following in the Land of the Rising Sun with his battles against Kazushi Sakuraba, Chuck Liddell, Wanderlei Silva and, of course, the infamous slam heard round world against Ricardo Arona.

Now, the Memphis native will square off against Season 8 winner of The Ultimate Fighter Ryan Bader, who snapped a two-fight skid with a emphatic knockout of the always-tough Jason Brilz.

Against these two heavy-hitters, who will come out on top and move back into the upper echelon of the light heavyweight division?

Scott Petersen of MMAWeekly.com contributed to this article.

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