Brock Lesnar (current champion) vs Cain Velasquez
In the Heavyweight Championship bout, we have the humongous Brock Lesnar taking on the always conditioned and great stand up boxer/wrestler Cain Velasquez. I’ve wanted Lesnar to lose almost every match. However, it hasn’t happened. The guy has gotten excellent at what he is good at. This is no different than anyone in the early days of mixed martial arts, where they won based on their main skillset. Matt Hughes, Royce Gracie, Dan Severn, Mark Coleman, now Brock Lesnar. Velasquez is a far different fighter with extremely well rounded skills. Velasquez is going to be giving up a lot of weight to Lesnar, and it will be interesting to see how Velasquez carries that burden.
If Velasquez gets Lesnar in the same position Carwin got Lesnar in round 1 of their fight, I think Velasquez will do better at taking advantage of the situation. Not only that, Cain is maybe less powerful than Carwin, but much faster, 10x better footwork, and his wrestling is top notch as well.
If Lesnar can’t work his gameplan, I think Velasquez will win via decision. If Lesnar can work his gameplan, which he has been able to do in all his winning fights, Velasquez could get KO’d rather quickly. Velasquez was stunned badly against Cheick Kongo, but nobody else has been able to strike with him. If Lesnar gets on top, I think its over. He has one of the most vicious and relentless top games in MMA.
Cain at +145 and Lesnar favored at -175
I want to pick Cain here as I’ve been impressed with his last string of fights. I’m going to go against what I want to happen, and go with Lesnar. He is too much of a wall and I don’t know if Cain’s firepower is enough to chop the mountain down inside 5 rounds.
PPV card
Welterweight bout: Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann
I’m going with Jake Shields because he somehow manages to avoid getting destroyed on the feet and has a devastating ground attack that smothers people into submission.
Welterweight bout: Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago
Looking for Diego to bounce back here and avoid getting KO’d or submitted, by the always tough Thiago.
Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill
Perfect opponent for Tito Ortiz. However, I worry Hamill is the one more pumped up for this fight. I have no clue if Tito is pumped up or not, I just know Hamill has to be going against a legend and his former coach.
Hamill is a great opponent for Ortiz. He isn’t very good off his back which lends to Ortiz getting back to his old punishment from inside the guard. Ortiz also has an underrated ground game. Remember him catching Machida in a triangle?
I like Ortiz to get a win inside the Octagon and we never hear the end of it.
Heavyweight bout: Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
I think Gonzaga gets back on the winning side in this match up.
Preliminary card (Spike TV)
Middleweight bout: Court McGee vs. Ryan Jensen
Ryan Jensen. Super tough, highly experienced.
Middleweight bout: Patrick Côté vs. Tom Lawlor
Coteeeeee, Cote Cote Cote.
Preliminary card
Welterweight bout: Mike Guymon vs. Daniel Roberts
Pass
Lightweight bout: Sam Stout vs. Paul Taylor
Sam Stout is more highly skilled and possesses better standup in terms of combos and is probably more powerful in both the hands and legs than Paul Taylor (however, Taylor is VERY good on the feet). Should get replayed on the PPV if time allows as this fight is going to be good.
Middleweight bout: Chris Camozzi vs. Dong Yi Yang
Pass
Heavyweight bout: Jon Madsen vs. Gilbert Yvel
Madsen is likely going to take Yvel down and do the wrestler GnP thing on Yvel. However, this is one spot where Yvel could get highlight reel KO as Madsen is on the shorter side which plays into Yvel’s dangerous high kicks.
