Tag: Stats

TJ Dillashaw’s Win over Renan Barao Leaves Jose Aldo as the Only Brazilian Champ

TJ Dillashaw dethroned former bantamweight champion Renan Barao at UFC 173, and just like that, Jose Aldo became the last UFC champion waving the Brazilian flag. 
If we go back less than two years to July 2012, there were four Brazilian champions …

TJ Dillashaw dethroned former bantamweight champion Renan Barao at UFC 173, and just like that, Jose Aldo became the last UFC champion waving the Brazilian flag. 

If we go back less than two years to July 2012, there were four Brazilian champions in eight divisions. 

Junior dos Santos ruled the heavyweight division, Anderson “The Spider” Silva was still the greatest fighter in the world at middleweight and Jose Aldo and Renan Barao stood tall above the rest of the featherweight and bantamweight divisions, respectively. 

Dos Santos was the first to lose his strap.

In December 2012, dos Santos was battered for five rounds by Cain Velasquez at UFC 155. He would challenge Velasquez again at UFC 166 in October 2013, but the Brazilian would come up even shorter this time around, getting stopped in the fight’s final frame.  

Between those two heavyweight title fights, Silva was famously knocked out by Chris Weidman at UFC 162. It was a win that nobody saw coming—not like that, at least—and it prompted an immediate rematch. 

Like dos Santos, Silva would fail in his second bid at regaining the title.

That left only Barao and Aldo, and neither man looked remotely vincible during his run as champion. These two guys were here to stay. 

Barao hadn’t lost in nine years going into his UFC 173 showdown with Dillashaw, and even though the Team Alpha Male product had looked good during his UFC career, he didn’t appear to be the man to defeat the inhuman Barao.

Dillashaw had good wrestling and knockout power, so what? The Brazilian had already defeated arguably the hardest puncher in the division in Michael McDonald via submission, and he dispatched one of the division’s finest grapplers and Dillashaw‘s teammate, Urijah Faber, twice, each time with little effort. 

What did Dillashaw have to offer that Barao hadn’t already seen? 

At UFC 173, we found out. 

Dillashaw had a perfect game plan, complex footwork, huge power and the will to succeed. It was too much for Barao to handle, and Dillashaw finished the fight via TKO in the fifth round. 

The win was shocking, and it was equal parts devastating for Brazilian fans, as an American once again snagged one of their coveted titles. 

MMA is an undeniably volatile sport, and in just two years, Brazilians went from owning half of the UFC titles to owning just one out of eight (12.5 percent of them for you math people out there). 

And now Jose Aldo, the last Brazilian standing, is booked to fight another Team Alpha Male product in Chad Mendes at UFC 176 in August. 

Like Dillashaw, Mendes boasts huge knockout power and incredible athleticism. “Money” is, in many ways, a featherweight version of Dillashaw. We haven’t seen the kind of footwork Dillashaw showed against Barao from Mendes, but then again, we hadn’t seen it look that good from Dillashaw himself until he fought for the title. 

There’s no telling how much Mendes has improved since his last fight, and there’s no doubt that he presents a significant challenge to Aldo as they head toward their much-anticipated rematch. 

Aldo won the first fight via knockout in Round 1, but Mendes has won five straight since that time, scoring a knockout in four of them.

If Aldo is not on top of his game, Mendes‘ streak might get pushed to six, and Brazil will lose its last titleholder.

My, how things can change in this sport.  

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

Renan Barao vs. TJ Dillashaw: What Fight Stats Tell Us About Matchup

Mixed martial arts isn’t the first sport you think of when someone mentions statistics, but the more data that is compiled, the more the numbers have a place in the analysis of the sport.
Like any other sport, the numbers mean nothing without perspecti…

Mixed martial arts isn’t the first sport you think of when someone mentions statistics, but the more data that is compiled, the more the numbers have a place in the analysis of the sport.

Like any other sport, the numbers mean nothing without perspective.

For example, one glance at the statistical comparison between UFC bantamweight champion Renan Barao and TJ Dillashaw can be deceiving.

Dillashaw’s statistics in strikes landed per minute, striking accuracy, takedown average and takedown defense are superior to Barao’s, per FightMetric.com.

Here’s a statistical overview:

Striking (Significant Strikes)

Stats

Barao

Dillashaw

Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)

3.70

4.84

Striking Accuracy

36%

49%

Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)

2.33

2.13

Defense

67%

63%
Grappling

Stats

Barao

Dillashaw

Takedowns Average/15 min.

1.59

3.04

Takedown Accuracy

55%

48%

Takedown Defense

95%

100%

Submission Average/15 min.

0.9

2.3

What must be understood is that the two men’s numbers were compiled against a different level of competition.

Dillashaw has built his record by beating the likes of Mike Easton, Hugo Viana, Issei Tamura and Vaughan Lee. Barao has risen to stardom on the strength of two wins over Urijah Faber, stoppages of Eddie Wineland and Michael McDonald and a decision win over Scott Jorgensen.

He also owns a 32-fight win streak.

The numbers don’t completely deceive. Dillashaw is one heck of a striker, but despite the edge in stats, Barao is better in this area. On Saturday, he seems intent on proving it. Barao told Bleacher Report: “I believe T.J. [Dillashaw] thinks he is a striker now, and he isn’t. I think he will mess up and make mistakes in this fight, and this will present the chance for me to finish him. I’m very calm and ready for this fight, and I believe I will win this fight because I’m the better fighter.”

Barao’s striking numbers are somewhat affected by the world-class competition he’s faced but also by the way he fights. He’ll throw a combination that is designed to force his opponent to react in a specific way. The moment the opponent moves to avoid a strike, the next attack is already on its way and potentially more dangerous because of the momentum created from the previous strike attempt.

From a statistical standpoint, that brings percentages down, but it’s proved to be very effective.

Listen to what MMA writers from around the globe are saying about Barao:

Dillashaw is worthy of a shot at a world title. Perhaps only Raphael Assuncao, the man who beat him in October 2013, is more deserving, but that’s another story.

That said, don’t get too preoccupied with the statistical advantages that Dillashaw appears to have over Barao. They won’t prove relevant on Saturday night. The champion is a good bet to retain his title.

 

Follow me. I dig combat sports.

@BMaziqueFPBR

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

How Every Single UFC Fight Ended in 2013 in One Graph

(Click here to fully enlarge custom graphic).
In 2013, the UFC put on 386 fights in the Octagon, more than any other in its 20 years in business. With fight cards coming faster and faster now, it may all seem like a blur, but it’s worth pausing …

(Click here to fully enlarge custom graphic).

In 2013, the UFC put on 386 fights in the Octagon, more than any other in its 20 years in business. With fight cards coming faster and faster now, it may all seem like a blur, but it’s worth pausing for a moment and looking back at how everything went down.

Out of those 386 fights, only 65 (or 17 percent) were restricted to pay-per-view audiences, meaning MMA fans had access to more free UFC action than ever before—more than 300 fights worth. Even if you tried watching every single fight, it would be understandable if you missed a few things.

So here’s every UFC fight in 2013 all in one map, by weight class and how the fights ended, including all 19 title fights tagged for special attention.

The graph above is a Marimekko chart, which is an area chart that adjusts the horizontal axis to account for how many fights occurred in the division. Each box within the chart represents a pool of fights that occurred in a certain division and ended a certain way.

The bigger the box, the more fights ended that way. Taller boxes mean more fights ended by a certain method, while wider boxes mean more fights were held in a certain weight class.

There are lots of interesting things to consider here, but please keep in mind, this is a single year of data, and trends are volatile whenever we use a tight control on the timescale. Still, let’s point out a few notables for 2013.

Division Trends

  • For the promotion that didn’t even have a lightweight division for a time in the mid-2000s, it’s worth noting that more than half of all UFC fights occurred below welterweight. The center of mass has been dropping for some time, and for the last two years, the average fighter weight has been below 170 pounds, which never happened before 2012.
  • The UFC roster is still clustered in the middle, as featherweights and women’s bantamweights only had 38 fights between them (skinnier columns), while the lightweight division alone had 75 fights (the thickest column)—almost twice the number of the other two divisions combined. Divisions on the more extreme ends of weight also have fewer roster spots in the UFC.
  • Fortunately, smaller fighters still put on great fights and actually bucked the trend of declining finish rates in 2013. In fact, the featherweights and women’s bantamweights finished more fights last year than all other weight classes except the knockout-hungry heavyweights.
  • Although heavyweights and lightweights both finished 19 fights by (T)KO, the heavier fighters only needed 28 fights to do it, while the lighter fighters needed 75.
  • Not a single heavyweight fight ended by split/majority decision, at least not officially. The one heavyweight fight that led to disagreement on the judges’ cards was Mark Hunt vs. Antonio Silva, but it was overturned to a no-contest after a failed drug test by Silva.
  • The heavyweights ended 68 percent of their fights by (T)KO or referee stoppage, far more than any other weight class. When it comes to submissions, however, it was the bantamweights who were mostly likely to get a tap at 32 percent of the time. The featherweights saw the most scorecards read, going to a decision 59 percent of the time.
  • The newest and lightest divisions, as well as the heaviest, have the fewest roster spots in the UFC. They represent the edges of the normal distributions for size, and therefore also have the most limited talent pool in the population at large. So it’s interesting that these divisions had very high finish rates, supporting the theory that there are greater competitive imbalances at more extreme sizes. This also implies the center-of-mass divisions—which have the lowest finish rates—may be the most “competitive.” Stay tuned for more on this complicated subject.

Championship Fights

  • Titles changed hands only twice in 2013, both times in a finish. Lightweight Benson Henderson lost by submission to Anthony Pettis, while middleweight Anderson Silva was knocked out by Chris Weidman.
  • That means champions successfully defended their titles a whopping 89 percent of the time.
  • Flyweight Demetrious Johnson was the only champion to defend his title three times, which he did with a winning trifecta of one knockout, one submission and one unanimous decision. All other champions fought twice in 2013.
  • Chris Weidman and Cain Velasquez each won both of their title fights by (T)KO, while Georges St-Pierre was the only champion not to get a finish last year.
  • Note the two title bouts in the women’s bantamweight division each ended by submission. This was entirely the work of Ronda Rousey, who defended her belt twice by armbar victory and scored the only submission victories in that division to date.
  • Split decisions occurred only twice in title fights in the lightweight and welterweight divisions, which are also historically the most competitive.

It was a year chock full of events as well as full of fights that were eventful. Now that 2014 is off and running the UFC wants to put on even more events and fights this year.

Will the Flyweights continue their unusual run of knockout finishes? Will any Women’s Bantamweight other than Ronda Rousey pull of a submission? Will any two Heavyweights fight so closely that we see a split decision? How many titles will change hands this year? Will regression to the mean lead to different trends this year? And how will the new Women’s Strawweight division play out inside the Octagon?

There is plenty to look forward to in 2014.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

Rousey vs. Tate 2: Statistical Breakdown of Anticipated Rematch

So much has been made of how much Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate dislike each other. Not as much analysis has gone into how these two women match up inside the Octagon for their high-profile rematch at UFC 168 on Saturday.
Can Tate prevent herself from f…

So much has been made of how much Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate dislike each other. Not as much analysis has gone into how these two women match up inside the Octagon for their high-profile rematch at UFC 168 on Saturday.

Can Tate prevent herself from falling victim to Rousey’s armbar again? Is this the bout Rousey shows off her striking skills? 

These questions won’t be answered until the two meet on Saturday night at UFC 168 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. As the moment of truth approaches, here’s a statistical look at Rousey vs. Tate 2.

 

Tale of the Tape

 

Striking

Some may believe that Tate is the better striker of the two, but the numbers don’t support that concept. Rousey has landed more strikes per minute, has been more accurate and has absorbed fewer strikes in her career.

Considering this, it may not be all that risky for Rousey to spend a little time showing off her striking ability.

 

Takedowns

Without a doubt, the edge goes to Rousey in this area. She seeks the takedown more aggressively. She’s more successful with her attempts, and her defense against her opponent’s takedown attempts has been better.

 

Submissions

Rousey also excels in this category. All seven of her wins have come by submission—including her 2012 victory over Tate while both women were in Strikeforce. Tate does have six submission wins to her credit, but none of them has come against grapplers as experienced and skilled as Rousey.

Then again, there is no woman in the UFC as advanced as Rousey is on the ground.

 

The Bottom Line

It’s hard to see a scenario where Tate wins this fight. I know she’s been working on her submission defense, but the truth is that she picked up martial arts late compared to Rousey. The champion has been honing her skills since she was a child. 

We’ve yet to see the woman who has the technical mastery or physical strength to defeat the UFC women’s bantamweight champion. 

Rousey should win again by submission.

 

Follow me. I like sports where people fight.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC 167: Most Impressive Octagon Statistics from Las Vegas

UFC 167 will be one of the more memorable cards from 2013. We saw big names in action, a controversial decision in the main event, a few fighters potentially thinking about retirement and some young guns prove their mettle.
Amidst that whirlwind of act…

UFC 167 will be one of the more memorable cards from 2013. We saw big names in action, a controversial decision in the main event, a few fighters potentially thinking about retirement and some young guns prove their mettle.

Amidst that whirlwind of activity, some interesting stats were generated in the Octagon. Take a look at some of the noteworthy numbers.

 

Rashad Evans Shuts Down Chael Sonnen‘s Takedown Attempts

When was the last time we saw Sonnen fail to register one takedown in a fight in which he actually attempted one? Sonnen didn’t take Jon Jones down, but he didn’t officially have an attempt in that bout.

You have to go back more than eight years to UFC 55 to find an instance where all of Sonnen‘s takedown attempts were snuffed. Renato “Babalu” Sobral shut Sonnen out then and submitted him via triangle choke. 

On Saturday night, Evans stopped Sonnen‘s only attempt to take him to the mat. He subsequently landed his own and simply beat up the sport’s best self-promoter. At this point, I’m hoping this is the loss that sends Sonnen where he belongs, the WWE.

 

Georges St-Pierre Got Hit a Lot

The main event was close. Johny Hendricks seemed to earn the win, but GSP came away with the victory officially. After the fight, GSP certainly looked like the guy who had taken the beating. 

Those bumps and bruises were a product of an assault that was beyond any level of damage the champion had ever faced. Hendricks landed 85 significant strikes (44 percent) and 142 attacks in all (50 percent) against GSP.

To put those numbers in perspective, Hendricks’ significant strikes percentage was more than double the amount Carlos Condit landed against GSP in another tough defense for the champion back in 2012. It is no wonder GSP talked about retirement in the post-fight interview with Joe Rogan.

Each round has to be scored individually, and I think that’s what many people don’t understand. You can’t just look at the fighters and say, “Look at GSP, and look at Hendricks. Who looks like the winner?” Most of GSP‘s damage came in the second and fourth rounds.

That said, the key round for the judges was the first one. Two judges gave GSP the first frame despite the fact that Hendricks seemed to do the better work in the round. 

Had this round been scored differently, we’d have a new UFC welterweight champion. 

 

86 Significant Strikes in 13 Minutes and 35 Seconds

After UFC 167, where Josh Koscheck was brutally knocked out by up-and-coming star Tyron Woodley, Kos texted UFC head man Dana White with what sounded like his notice of retirement, per Brett Okamoto of ESPN. 

Koscheck has lost three fights in a row with two coming via KO. Prior to the loss to Woodley, Koscheck was finished by another devastating puncher in “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler. Before that fight, he lost a split decision to Hendricks.

That’s three fights against massively strong and heavy-hitting competition. Over the course of 13:35, Koscheck has absorbed 86 significant strikes from these men. With no wins to show for the damage he’s taken, it is easy to understand how the 35-year-old would be contemplating retirement.

 

All stat references per FightMetric.com

 

Follow me for MMA news, musings and statistics.

 

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC 167: Statistical Breakdown of Top Fights

As is the case with every major UFC card, there are questions to be answered throughout the main attractions of the UFC 167 event. The answers will come in the Octagon, but hints at the outcome could very well lie in the numbers.
After studying the ten…

As is the case with every major UFC card, there are questions to be answered throughout the main attractions of the UFC 167 event. The answers will come in the Octagon, but hints at the outcome could very well lie in the numbers.

After studying the tendencies of the fighters in the top three fights on Saturday’s card from Las Vegas, here’s a statistical preview of the bouts.  

Let’s start with the Robbie Lawler-Rory MacDonald welterweight clash.

 

“Ruthless” Robbie Lawler vs. Rory “Ares” MacDonald

 

Analysis

Length is going to be an issue in this fight. MacDonald is only one inch taller than Lawler, but his 2.5″ edge in reach is going to be the primary reason MacDonald keeps Lawler at bay. Ares’ jab is one of his best weapons, but it only sets up the rest of his well-balanced attack and defense.

Lawler is no slouch, and he’s been on a hot streak. He has scored a KO in over 85 percent of his wins, which includes stoppage victories in his last two fights. His wrestling is decent, but the Ruthless one wants to deck his opponents.

MacDonald was stopped in his only loss to Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit, but Condit is nearly as calculated as Ares is. The Natural Born Killer doesn’t land a high percentage of his strikes, but he’s busier and longer. Condit lands 3.24 strikes per minute compared to 2.5 for Lawler. He wants to land the bomb, but that’s going to be tough against MacDonald.

It is going to take a longer, more steady striker to derail MacDonald—if anyone will again. It will be very difficult for Lawler to find MacDonald. Instead, he will be picked apart and cut up by MacDonald’s jab.

Don’t rule out a potential win by submission with MacDonald either. He’s made his opponent tap out six times in his career. He could choose to take Lawler down to stay away from his puncher’s chance. 

My official prediction is a unanimous-decision win for MacDonald, but if I could make a secondary prognostication, it would be a submission win for MacDonald by rear-naked choke.

 

Rashad “Suga” Evans vs. Chael Sonnen

 

Analysis

As the numbers show, neither man is terribly accurate as a striker. Though he doesn’t land, Evans has proven in the past that he brings some power when he does connect. He knocked Chuck Liddell out with one shot in 2008 and landed a good shot on Jon “Bones” Jones in 2012.

Sonnen is a very ineffective striker. Only 25 percent of the wins in his career have come by KO, and he’s never stopped anyone with strikes in the UFC. 

If the fight stays standing, Evans has a clear advantage because of his power and speed. That said, with two world-class wrestlers, it is hard to imagine this fight not going to the ground at some point. If it does become a wrestling match, who has the edge?

I’d have to give it to Sonnen. Though Evans is shorter and has a lower center of gravity, Sonnen’s takedowns are extremely powerful, and he’s been the most accurate in this sense. With both fighters holding an advantage in the two major areas of combat, who wins?

Evans’ disadvantage on the ground is not as glaring as Sonnen’s deficiency in the stand-up game. Suga won’t be outclassed by anyone as a wrestler. He can hold his own there, and he should easily out-box Sonnen.

This should end in a unanimous-decision win for Evans based on an edge in striking and overall athleticism.

 

UFC Welterweight Champion: Georges St-Pierre vs. Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks

 

Analysis

What happens when a big-time puncher like Hendricks faces one of the most efficient and balanced fighters the sport has ever known? Bigg Rigg is probably the pound-for-pound hardest puncher in MMA. He only needs one shot to turn out just about anyone’s lights.

As you can see from the numbers, hitting GSP is not an easy thing to do. The champion does a great job keeping his chin tucked and he stays very low. His opponents also have to be wary of the counter takedown.

GSP is adept at catching his opponents mid-strike and powering into takedowns. It is this technique that is the primary reason GSP succeeds at 76 percent of his takedown attempts. Once he’s gained top position, even an experienced and accomplished wrestler like Hendricks is bound to find some issues. 

If there is one flaw in Hendricks’ game it’s that he has somewhat abandoned his wrestling background. He is a two-time NCAA Division I champion, but he has fallen in love with his massive left hand.

That is enough against most opponents, but not GSP. The champion will avoid the big punch and dominate with his wrestling to retain his title.

 

All statistical references from FightMetric.com

 

Follow me for news and musings on MMA.

 

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com