Tag: Stats

UFC 163 Results: Key Statistics from Phil Davis’ Debated Win over Lyoto Machida

Perhaps the most controversial ending at UFC 163 came as Phil Davis picked up a unanimous decision victory over Lyoto Machida. With the local Brazilian crowd, as well as many at home, scoring the fight in favor of Machida, it was Davis who walked away …

Perhaps the most controversial ending at UFC 163 came as Phil Davis picked up a unanimous decision victory over Lyoto Machida. With the local Brazilian crowd, as well as many at home, scoring the fight in favor of Machida, it was Davis who walked away with the win.

The question is, what key statistics defined Davis’ debated win over Machida?

Some offered up the belief that Machida won all three rounds, thus clearly deserving to win the fight as a whole. Others believed that every time Machida supposedly stepped up, Davis countered with a block or a move of his own.

Even UFC president Dana White had Machida winning this one in dominant fashion.

Unfortunately for the Brazilian star, the judges didn’t agree.

Some have speculated—and with good reason—that the judges penalized Machida for refusing to engage Davis. That’s been an issue in many of his recent fights, as Machida fights defensively and picks his spots as he becomes the aggressor.

The question is, what numbers truly defined this fight?

During the course of the clash between Davis and Machida, there was a visible contrast in fighting style. While Davis consistently brought the fight to Machida, attempting takedowns throughout, the latter decided to keep the clash on two feet.

Just check the numbers.

The chart placed above measures strike percentage.

Machida‘s unwillingness to grapple may have played into his defeat, but that was hardly the only number worth knowing. Instead, the best measure of this fight may have been the impact that approach had on the fight—not just the way it happened.

Upon evaluating the numbers, it’s clear that Machida was the man who landed the most significant strikes.

Normally, landing more significant head and body strikes would be enough to secure a decision.

This is a clear example of the judges rewarding the fighter who was more aggressive, thus being perceived as the pace-controlling fighter. Even as Machida outclassed Davis in efficiency and effectiveness, his defensive style wasn’t appreciated—even if the numbers say it should’ve been.

According to FightMetric.com, 44.3 percent of Machida‘s total attempts landed as significant strikes. He converted 27 by that measurement, which ended up being his grand total for overall connected punches and kicks.

By comparison, the same source reports that 21.4 percent of Davis’ attempts were significant strikes, with nine of the 21 going to the legs. Only 12 went to the head or body, which pales in comparison to Machida‘s 23.

The deciding factor, however, was not the amount of significant strikes landed, nor was it the efficiency. Instead, it was all about style in this one, as the judges made a point to acknowledge the following numbers.

Davis landed 29-of-98 total strikes to Machida‘s 27-of-61.

The final numbers on each man’s behalf are what defined this outcome, as Davis threw 37 more punches and kicks than Machida. Furthermore, Davis was 2-for-10 on takedowns, while Machida didn’t register a single try.

To quote the backhanded compliment that no one wants to hear, the judges gave Davis an A for effort and completely overlooked Machida‘s efficient dominance.

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UFC 163 Results: Breaking Down the Davis vs. Machida Decision

At almost the very instant that Bruce Buffer announced Phil Davis’ 29-28 unanimous-decision victory over Lyoto Machida at UFC 163, a cacophony of overwhelming boos erupted from the audience in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 

In fact, both winner and los…

At almost the very instant that Bruce Buffer announced Phil Davis’ 29-28 unanimous-decision victory over Lyoto Machida at UFC 163, a cacophony of overwhelming boos erupted from the audience in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 

In fact, both winner and loser struggled to make it through their respective post-fight interviews as the uproar grew louder and louder. 

Were the fans in attendance—not to mention the MMA media and fighters elsewhere—justified for being so outraged?

Take a look at the official scorecard procured shortly after the fight came to a close:

Well, if the calculated analysis offered by FightMetric carries any respectable weight, the controversy was justified—according to its statistical analysis, Machida should have walked away with a 30-27 victory over Davis. 

Let’s briefly examine what took place on a round-by-round basis.

 

Round 1

Key takeaways for Davis: more total strikes, more strikes to the body, two attempted takedowns and one successful takedown. 

Key takeaways for Machida: more significant strikes, more strikes to the head and a definitive salvo of strikes that dropped Davis to his knee.

FightMetric total effectiveness score: Davis with 20, Machida with 34.

 

Round 2

Key takeaways for Davis: more significant strikes, more total strikes, more strikes to the body, more strikes to the legs, four attempted takedowns and one successful takedown. 

Key takeaways for Machida: more strikes to the head.

FightMetric total effectiveness score: Davis with 26, Machida with 41.

 

Round 3

Key takeaways for Davis: more strikes to the legs and four attempted takedowns with none successfully landing.

Key takeaways for Machida: more significant strikes, more total strikes, more strikes to the head and more strikes to the body.

FightMetric total effectiveness score: Davis with 2, Machida with 32.

 

Summary

The judges at UFC 163 unanimously declared Davis to be a 29-28 winner in his efforts against Machida.

Perhaps they were heavily influenced by the two successful takedowns, or perhaps they were indifferent to Machida‘s dominant use of the center of the Octagon to maintain cage control. According FightMetric, Davis landed more total strikes (29 vs. 27) but failed to land as many that proved to be significant (21 vs. 27).

Machida was clearly traumatized by how the decision unfolded—he lamented that “he didn’t know what they were judging.” Davis used the post-fight press conference to reveal an even-keel, though certainly indecisive, outlook on the fight:

Fighting is an emotional thing. If I had lost this fight, I would be like, “I didn’t lose that fight, and they know it.” That’s how it is. You put all you have into it. So everyone who was a Lyoto fan, I understand where you’re coming from. It’s an emotional thing. You’re cheering for your guy. He’s a Brazilian. I can imagine how that feels…I know how this works. Anytime it goes to the judges, you forfeit your right to be upset. You’ve just got to give it to the judges, and whatever they say is what they say.

Perhaps there’s much to be garnered from Davis’ critique—MMA fans seem to have decisively sided with FightMetric‘s breakdown but, when all is said and done, the judges determine who walks away with another digit in the win column.

 *All statistics courtesy of FightMetric

 


Artem Moshkovich is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for MMA news and more.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

Aldo vs. Jung: Breaking Down Key Stats for UFC 163 Featherweight Title Fight

Chan-Sung Jung will face Jose Aldo in the main event of UFC 163 on Saturday and will attempt to become the first person to defeat the Brazilian since Luciano Azevedo handed the featherweight champion the only loss of his career in 2005. If you look at the fight from the Vegas perspective, it shouldn’t be close. Aldo is […]

Chan-Sung Jung will face Jose Aldo in the main event of UFC 163 on Saturday and will attempt to become the first person to defeat the Brazilian since Luciano Azevedo handed the featherweight champion the only loss of his career in 2005. If you look at the fight from the Vegas perspective, it shouldn’t be close. Aldo is […]

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UFC on Fox 8 Preview: Fun Facts and Stats Heading into Johnson vs. Moraga Card

The UFC will head to Seattle on July 27 for the eighth installment of its on Fox series of fight cards. The card will be headlined by a flyweight title bout, as champion Demetrious Johnson puts his belt on the line against the fourth-ranked contender, John Moraga. The evening’s co-main event will see the No. […]

The UFC will head to Seattle on July 27 for the eighth installment of its on Fox series of fight cards. The card will be headlined by a flyweight title bout, as champion Demetrious Johnson puts his belt on the line against the fourth-ranked contender, John Moraga. The evening’s co-main event will see the No. […]

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Is it Possible to Fix The UFC Hall of Fame Induction Process?


(Well? Photo courtesy of Getty Images.)

By the time that this is published, the ceremony that will make Stephan Bonnar an official member of the UFC Hall of Fame will be underway. Bonnar’s resume includes an 8-7 UFC record, a flawless 0-0 record in UFC title fights, two failed drug tests and the significance of his TUF Finale bout against Forrest Griffin – a fight so important to UFC history that it has its own Wikipedia page. Bonnar also is on good terms with Dana White, which is arguably the most important criterion for induction into what is supposedly the UFC’s highest honor.

Regardless of how you feel about Bonnar’s induction, that last sentence should make you feel uncomfortable. A company that already has trouble convincing non-fans that it isn’t glorified professional wrestling selects people into its hall of fame the same way that the WWE does – by allowing one person to dictate who is worthy of the honor. Both halls have some debatable inductions. Both halls have some notable omissions. Neither hall is taken seriously by most fans of either sport.

While many articles have been written about how Bonnar’s induction highlights everything that’s wrong with the UFC Hall of Fame selection process, pretty much none of them offered any solutions. Below you’ll find a few suggestions to fix the hall, as well as reasons that they may not work. Let’s start off with the most obvious fix…


(Well? Photo courtesy of Getty Images.)

By the time that this is published, the ceremony that will make Stephan Bonnar an official member of the UFC Hall of Fame will be underway. Bonnar’s resume includes an 8-7 UFC record, a flawless 0-0 record in UFC title fights, two failed drug tests and the significance of his TUF Finale bout against Forrest Griffin – a fight so important to UFC history that it has its own Wikipedia page. Bonnar also is on good terms with Dana White, which is arguably the most important criterion for induction into what is supposedly the UFC’s highest honor.

Regardless of how you feel about Bonnar’s induction, that last sentence should make you feel uncomfortable. A company that already has trouble convincing non-fans that it isn’t glorified professional wrestling selects people into its hall of fame the same way that the WWE does – by allowing one person to dictate who is worthy of the honor. Both halls have some debatable inductions. Both halls have some notable omissions. Neither hall is taken seriously by most fans of either sport.

While many articles have been written about how Bonnar’s induction highlights everything that’s wrong with the UFC Hall of Fame selection process, pretty much none of them offered any solutions. Below you’ll find a few suggestions to fix the hall, as well as reasons that they may not work. Let’s start off with the most obvious fix…

Let the Journalists Vote

Why it would work – Because that’s pretty much what every legitimate Hall of Fame does. It may not make too much of a difference as to who gets inducted (more on that in a second), but at least then we’ll be able to take the hall seriously.

Why it wouldn’t work – Or will we? If the only journalists who are allowed to vote are those who are on good terms with the UFC – and unwilling to do anything to jeopardize this – the results will inevitably be just as biased as those adorable “official UFC rankings.”

Let the Fans Vote

Why it would work – Because halls of fame are for the fans in the first place, so why not let them decide who they want in them? Also, current UFC Hall of Famer Tito Ortiz seems to believe it would work. Via MMA Junkie:

“I think [the Hall of Fame selection process] should be a fan vote,” Ortiz said. “That’s what it should really come down to. The fans should consider how much they’ve known the person, how much they’ve watched them fight and so forth and just how much the fighter had significance in the sport in general. I think that’s the answer.”

Why it wouldn’t work – How’s this for irony: Ortiz doesn’t think that Bonnar deserves to be in the hall of fame, but thinks that allowing the fans to induct their favorite the most worthy fighters is the solution. If you’re even slightly familiar with the voting process for the NBA All Star Game, then this requires zero explanation. If you aren’t familiar with it – and were too lazy to click the two links in this section – then let’s just say that guys like Bonnar would only be more likely to be inducted into the hall if the fans were allowed to vote.

Mark Cuban’s Weighted Fan Vote

Why it would work – The problem with letting the people vote on the Internet is that anyone with an unhealthy obsession with an athlete and too much free time can significantly affect the outcome, regardless of how often they even watch the sport. In an attempt to fix this, Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban offered a solution – count votes cast in arenas during events twice as much as Internet votes. This not only rewards fans who are loyal enough to buy tickets to events, but also helps ensure that votes from educated fans aren’t immediately cancelled out by votes from people looking to troll the election. Win/win.

Why it wouldn’t work – At best, counting arena votes twice as much as Internet votes is like putting a Band-Aid on a gaping wound; if you’re trolling an election online, you aren’t just voting once. At worst, keep in mind that it’s estimated that as much as 60% of a sporting event’s live gate comes from casual fans, which means that the Affliction clad oaf who thinks Brock Lesnar is the best fighter on the planet would now have twice as much influence on the outcome as the hardcore MMA fans watching the event from home.

Use Statistics

Why it would work – If the current problem facing the UFC Hall of Fame is human bias, then adding even more humans to the mix isn’t going to fix anything. Let’s just take a look at the stats – Win/loss record, takedown percentage, strikes landed; etc. – and let the numbers determine who really belongs in the hall of fame.

Why it wouldn’t work – The fighter who has landed the second-most strikes in UFC history, the third-most takedowns and left the organization with a 14-3-1 UFC record isn’t a member of the UFC Hall of Fame. Is this proof that we need to use statistics to determine who should be in the hall?

If you said yes, then congratulations – you just inducted Jon Fitch.

Screw it, Let’s Just Start a CagePotato.com Hall of Fame

Why it would work – It wouldn’t.

So how do you think the inductions should be handled? Let us know in the comments section.

@SethFalvo

Key Statistics from the Month of June in the UFC

The month of June has come and gone and with it a pair of UFC events—UFC on Fuel 10 and UFC 161—have come and gone as well. And we have the key statistics from last month right here. The first event was nothing short of stellar, featuring 1…

The month of June has come and gone and with it a pair of UFC events—UFC on Fuel 10 and UFC 161—have come and gone as well. And we have the key statistics from last month right here.

The first event was nothing short of stellar, featuring 10 stoppages in 12 fights. The headliner, a heavyweight bout between Fabricio Werdum and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, saw the former walk away with a submission win.

However, the follow-up event, a pay-per-view card, featured just two stoppages and a handful of lackluster contests. That card, UFC 161, was headlined by Rashad Evans vs. Dan Henderson. Evans took home a split-decision after three rounds of action.

Check out where last month stands in comparison to the first five of 2013 in the UFC in our list of key stats from the past 30 days. 

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