On a night that was suppose to feature Frankie Edgar making his UFC featherweight debut against champ Jose Aldo, Anderson Silva will be returning to light heavyweight to take on Stephan Bonner at UFC 153. An injury forced Aldo out of the event, an…
On a night that was suppose to feature Frankie Edgar making his UFC featherweight debut against champ Jose Aldo, Anderson Silva will be returning to light heavyweight to take on Stephan Bonner at UFC 153.
An injury forced Aldo out of the event, and Silva gladly stepped in to take a fight.
He will face The Ultimate Fighter 1 finalist Stephan Bonnar.
Three years after he defeated TUF 1 winner Forrest Griffin, Silva will now face the other man who was part one of the greatest fights in MMA history.
While many fight fans will not give Bonnar a chance in this fight, he could still be a tough challenge for the middleweight champ.
According to oddsmaker Nick Kalikas of MMAoddsbreaker.com (h/t MMAFighting.com), Anderson Silva has opened as a -1350 favorite over light heavyweight Stephan Bonnar in the new main event of UFC 153.Essentially, these odds signify that the longtime midd…
Essentially, these odds signify that the longtime middleweight champion has a 93-percent chance of success in the short-notice fight.
These odds may come as a surprise to some Bonnar supporters, but they seem to be accurate. In Silva’s two previous appearances as a light heavyweight, he collected a pair of first-round TKOs against James Irvin and Forrest Griffin.
While Bonnar is a dangerous opponent with both a solid chin and an underrated ground game, it’s hard to think he will fare better than Griffin, who twice bested him and also has career wins against Rich Franklin, Quinton Jackson and Shogun Rua.
The line is officially the biggest opening for Silva through his career.
By comparison, Jon Jones opened over Vitor Belfort as one of the biggest favorites in MMA history, and his line came in at only -925.
Some of the biggest underdogs in history have somehow overcome the odds to shock the world. In 2007, Matt Serra knocked out Georges St-Pierre to win the UFC welterweight championship despite the champ coming in at -1000. Likewise, BJ Penn was a -850 favorite to defend his belt against Frankie Edgar in Abu Dhabi at UFC 112.
It’s unlikely that Bonnar will defy the odds and dethrone the seemingly invincible Silva, but crazier things have happened.
Since the Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnarreplacement main event at UFC 153 was announced, I’ve been waiting patiently to see what kind of absurd betting line would be tied to this fight, and the oddsmakers didn’t disappoint. As MMAWeekly informs us, Silva has just opened as a -1350 (!) favorite, compared to Stephan Bonnar’s +850 underdog line. Gambling n00b translation: A $1,350 bet on Anderson would net you just a $100 profit if he wins, while a $100 bet on Bonnar would pay off $850 in profit if he does the unthinkable. And if you’re trying to decide which guy to put money on, I can confidently say that either bet would be stupid as fuck.
That -1350 line represents the most lopsided odds for an Anderson Silva fight ever, and even surpasses the -1300 opening line that was given to Jon Jones against Vitor Belfort. In general, once the gambling line passes -1000 for the favorite, it’s a pretty clear sign that the fight is a dangerous squash match that shouldn’t have been booked in the first place. (Example: Cris Cyborg‘s -2000 opening line over Jan Finney, a fight that turned out to be exactly as competitive as we thought it would.)
Since the Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnarreplacement main event at UFC 153 was announced, I’ve been waiting patiently to see what kind of absurd betting line would be tied to this fight, and the oddsmakers didn’t disappoint. As MMAWeekly informs us, Silva has just opened as a -1350 (!) favorite, compared to Stephan Bonnar’s +850 underdog line. Gambling n00b translation: A $1,350 bet on Anderson would net you just a $100 profit if he wins, while a $100 bet on Bonnar would pay off $850 in profit if he does the unthinkable. And if you’re trying to decide which guy to put money on, I can confidently say that either bet would be stupid as fuck.
That -1350 line represents the most lopsided odds for an Anderson Silva fight ever, and even surpasses the -1300 opening line that was given to Jon Jones against Vitor Belfort. In general, once the gambling line passes -1000 for the favorite, it’s a pretty clear sign that the fight is a dangerous squash match that shouldn’t have been booked in the first place. (Example: Cris Cyborg‘s -2000 opening line over Jan Finney, a fight that turned out to be exactly as competitive as we thought it would.)
Again, I’m not trying to convince you to bet on Bonnar here. I’m just saying, maybe on fight night you should go to a sports bar that’s showing the event, look for some poor mark who doesn’t seem to know what’s going on, and casually suggest that you think the black guy is gonna win. If you play your cards right, you might be able to get a free beer out of it.
Do I understand why Anderson Silva agreed to move up a weight class to fight Stephan Bonnar with no belt on the line for UFC 153?Nope, not really.Do I still think he’ll demolish Bonnar in the Octagon?Absolutely.With UFC 153 falling apart this week, aft…
Do I understand why Anderson Silva agreed to move up a weight class to fight Stephan Bonnar with no belt on the line for UFC 153?
Nope, not really.
Do I still think he’ll demolish Bonnar in the Octagon?
Absolutely.
With UFC 153 falling apart this week, after both Jose Aldo and Quinton Jackson pulled out of their fights, Silva basically saved the event by agreeing to fight Bonnar. Props go to him for putting on the “Company Man” t-shirt and bailing Dana White out of a disaster, even if the three-round fight offers all risk and no reward for Silva.
Well, risk if he loses, that is. And that seems pretty darn unlikely.
Bonnar is 14-7 in his career and has won his last three bouts, though, his last two have come as decisions. While he was a fun brawler to watch in his prime, he’s not in his prime any longer, and if he tries to simply mash away at the Spider, he’ll find himself in a precarious situation rather quickly.
Think of Bonnar as a 16-seed in the NCAA tournament and Silva is a one-seed. Oh, and this is a scrimmage with nothing technically on the line. Well, except for Silva’s undefeated UFC record and reputation as arguably the greatest UFC fighter ever, that is.
There is always the possibility that Bonnar will catch Silva and pull off a crazy upset. In the Octagon, anything can happen. But that’s the only way he can beat Silva.
Does he have an advantage standing up?
No.
Does he have an advantage on the mat?
No.
Is he the more technically savvy fighter?
Not even close.
Is Silva capable of still winning the fight even if it devolves into a straight brawl?
Yes, but it won’t.
I understand the pickle the UFC was in and why they scheduled this fight. I praise Silva for being game, even if I think he’s pretty crazy to risk so much with absolutely nothing to gain except a paycheck and some kind words from White.
But I don’t think this will be a very good fight. I think Silva will win this one fairly easily. He should, at least—in the UFC, you never know.
But if you ever wanted a safe bet, well, put the mortgage on Silva over Bonnar.
Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets always have a backup long snapper.
After all the injuries and alternating, UFC 153 seems to be back on track and avoiding the termination that UFC 151 faced. Stepping up to help save the card is none other than UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. Upon the turmoil of UFC 151 and th…
After all the injuries and alternating, UFC 153 seems to be back on track and avoiding the termination that UFC 151 faced. Stepping up to help save the card is none other than UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva.
Upon the turmoil of UFC 151 and the card slipping into nothing, Silva had offered to fight on little over a week’s notice to help keep the card afloat. His offer was to fight some undetermined Light Heavyweight as the main event, but an opponent for him was unclear. Now that Jose Aldo has succumbed to another injury, another card was in jeopardy.
Silva has risen to the occasion again, and will face TUF 1 finalist Stephan Bonnar. This is matchmaking that has the MMA world buzzing, and leaving many bewildered that a 14-7 LHW fighter is now facing the 32-4, undefeated in the UFC, 15-fight winning streak, best P4P fighter in the world.
So the question that lingers is just how will the UFC market this fight?
They certainly have more time than if this had occurred at UFC 151, but what are the selling points of this fight?
Of course, you have Silva, who sells cards by himself. His name and fame already sells him, but facing a guy like Bonnar, who many feel is extremely outmatched, is a different task.
The card takes place in Brazil, insuring that no seat will be left empty and PPVs will be high. This is “The American Psycho” going into Silva’s back yard. Silva has gotten to a point, like Mike Tyson, where people buy a card with him as a main event, still “knowing” that they will see Tyson win quickly.
Sometimes, it’s moreso buying a card for the chance that Silva might lose. Regardless of how “silly” this matchup is, people will still buy the card, or at least will watch it at some other point.
This only is possible because Silva has a track record for putting on amazing performances. While some might argue that this is a fight not worth watching, it still is a chance for MMA fans to witness something spectacular. While the odds are minimal for Bonnar on paper, it still means we could see an incredible finish.
So what can the UFC do to try to sell it though?
Well, you have the greatest fighter in the world and he’s taking on a man who put on the greatest fight. A weak selling point, but still worthy to note their influences. Also, Silva’s last venture up to 205 resulted in a disgraced and embarrassed Forrest Griffin, who was the man that put on the TUF finale epic battle with Bonnar. If Bonnar would agree, they could spin this in a revenge-esque manner for his fallen comrade inside the Octagon.
A worthy aspect to take into account for UFC marketing, is that Stephan Bonnar has never been KO’d or submitted. He now will be facing a man who is known for spectacular finishes, with 25 of his 32 victories not going to a decision. Bonnar was able to survive Jon Jones to a decision; maybe he could do that and more with Silva.
For a fight that will inevitably have oddsmakers making a statistical gap the size of the Grand Canyon, the UFC will need to find those backstories to help sell this fight. You can promote Bonnar for being on a three-fight win streak, but he also fought almost a year ago as well and doesn’t have the 18-fight win streak that Silva is on (if you don’t include the OkamiDQ).
Statistics won’t sell this fight, unless you consider the statistical chances that we will see Silva have an amazing performance and go three for three at LHW with first-round KO’s.
However, the UFC would never sell a fight leaning toward the presumed outcome of a fight. They must find a way to paint the picture that Bonnar has better chances than people think, or that this fight has great significance. The UFC has done great work with this in the past, but this one is going to be a challenge.
UFC 153 has undergone a figurative facelift over the past 48 hours. Indeed, one could say that it has also been subjected to a tummy tuck, rhinoplasty and a bit of liposuction for good measure. And what do you know? The MMA fan base sure ain’t ha…
UFC 153 has undergone a figurative faceliftover the past 48 hours. Indeed, one could say that it has also been subjected to a tummy tuck, rhinoplasty and a bit of liposuction for good measure. And what do you know? The MMA fan base sure ain’t happy about it.
MMA fans rarely find themselves without cause to complain. The UFC cancels a card? Mewl incessantly about it—perhaps with some justification in the aforementioned case. The UFC attempts to scrape together a main card in lieu of scrapping an entire event? Whine about the quality of the substitute show.
Much of the fans’ ire has been directed at UFC 153’s new main event, pitting P4P king Anderson Silva against perennial mid-carder Stephan Bonnar.
One can understand their point to some extent, but only until one realises that the UFC’s options were limited. More importantly, however, careful contemplation of the main event and what it offers is sufficient to catalyse a degree of intrigue.
As I argued some time ago, Stephan Bonnar is possibly the most robust fighter on the UFC roster. He has never been so much as rocked in a fight, let alone knocked out or forced into the dreaded “turtle” position.
Anderson Silva, on the other hand, is frequently hailed for his innumerable talents inside the cage, but rarely do we focus on the kind of bone-breaking power he so routinely exhibits. He may very well be the most explosive puncher, pound-for-pound, in MMA.
The drama in this fight will not centre on who comes out with the win—expect to see pigs flying over Rio if Bonnar somehow prevails. No, the main storyline here is of a fan-favourite, with legendary durability, attempting to go the distance with the champ.
It’s as though Joe Silva stepped aside and allowed Sylvester Stallone to put together the main event. Indeed, not since Rocky and Raging Bull has so much intrigue rested on whether a fighter can somehow manage to stay on his feet and/or go the distance.
This contest may not be competitive, but come on, folks—we all love an underdog story. And is there a more durable, lovable underdog than Stephan Bonnar?
