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TUF 15 Finale Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampann Both fighters in the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale’s main event are coming off of wins in their most recent bouts with Martin Kampmann currently on a two fight win streak.

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampann

Both fighters in the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale’s main event are coming off of wins in their most recent bouts with Martin Kampmann currently on a two fight win streak while while Jake Ellenberger is riding a six fight win streak after losing his opening appearance in the the UFC. The winner of this fight will establish himself as a title contender in the 170 lb division where Georges St. Pierre awaits interim champion Carlos Condit. Whoever earns the victory on Friday night should be no more than one fight away from a shot at the belt.

Kampmann pulled out a last minute submission via guillotine choke over Thiago Alves in his last appearance in the cage. The fight had been extremely competitive up to that point with Alves having a slight advantage on my scorecard in each of the first two rounds. The third round would have been close as well if not for Kampmann’s timely submission. In his recent fights, the “Hitman” has shown improved wrestling. He was able to avoid Rick Story’s takedowns for the most part at UFC 139 and when he did end up on the ground, he was able to get back to his feet quickly. He even managed to take Story down in that fight. Kampmann will once again be facing an opponent with a strong wrestling background in Ellenberger. I expect Kampann to use his newly improved wrestling to keep the fight standing and use his best weapon, which is his pinpoint Muay Thai striking, to outpoint Ellenberger on the feet. In order to accomplish that goal, Kampmann will need to utilize quick movement to stay away from Ellenberger’s power and land quick combinations. If he can time Ellenberger’s powerful right hand, he might be able to find the range for counter striking. But all of that will be difficult to accomplish against one of the toughest tests he has faced in his career thus far.

Jake Ellenberger is a world class athlete just now coming into the prime of his career at age twenty seven. He has everything a fighter needs to be title contender in the UFC. He has one punch KO power in both hands. He has a collegiate wrestling background. He trains with a great team. He has plenty of experience. Simply put, this is his moment. A win, especially an impressive one, would give put him right in the middle of the title picture that currently features St. Pierre and Condit as well as Johnny Hendricks after his recent defeat of Josh Koscheck. Ellenberger’s last loss came against Condit in 2009 via split decision and since then, he has reeled off six consecutive wins with his most recent coming against Diego Sanchez in February. Four of those wins came via (T)KO. He has scary power in his hands and over the past year or so, he has evolved from a wrestler with power into an impressively well-rounded mixed martial artist. A lot of fighters have power but Ellenberger has honed his stand-up to a degree where he now has the technical skill to consistently land his power shots. On Saturday, he will face one of the best strikers in the welterweight division. I expect him to stand with Kampmann initially and hope to land a power shot while avoiding his opponent’s combinations. If he begins to consistently lose the exchanges on the feet, look for him to go back to his wrestling and try to put Kampmann on his back. But that won’t be easy as Kampmann is difficult to take down and has an excellent submission game once the fight hits the mat.

Ellenberger is the clear favorite in this fight at -225 with Kampann coming in at +185. I expect this fight to take place mostly on the feet and in theory, that would favor Kampmann who is the more technical striker. The problem with that is that Ellenberger is also a good striker with the power to end the fight instantaneously. Clearly, the oddsmakers give the combination of Ellenberger’s power and his potential to take the fight to the ground and control from top position the advantage in this fight and a (T)KO finish for Ellenberger seems to be the most logical outcome for this fight. But if he can’t find Kampmann’s chin, the “Hitman” could pull off the upset by using his technical Muay Thai game to earn a decision.

By Alan Wells

TUF 15 Finale Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathan Brookins In a matchup of fighters trying to establish themselves in the 145 pound division, former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins returns to the octagon to face Brazilian prodigy Charles Oliveira..

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathan Brookins

In a matchup of fighters trying to establish themselves in the 145 pound division, former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins returns to the octagon to face Brazilian prodigy Charles Oliveira. Both fighters are coming off of rebound victories in their previous appearance with Brookins defeating Vagner Rocha in February and Oliveira defeating Eric Wisely in January.

Brookins is a well rounded fighter who has shown the ability to finish with both strikes and submissions. He seems to lull opponents to sleep with his calm approach and unassuming personality. I would imagine fighters have a difficult time working up any animosity against Brookins who is one of the more humble and peaceful competitors in the UFC. But despite his personality, he has finishing instincts as he showed in his previous fight when he took out Rocha with ground and pound in the first round. Brookins seems to be confident wherever the fight goes so I expect him to stand with Oliveira until he feels threatened. If he starts to lose in the standup game, look for him to try to push Oliveira against the fence and turn the fight into a dirtier game of clinch work and scrambles. Oliveira appears to be the more talented fighter but that hasn’t stopped Brookins in the past and look for him to do whatever he can to take his young opponent out of his gameplan.

Oliveira is one of the most exciting young fighters in the UFC. He burst on to the scene at age 20 with an explosive armbar submission victory over Darren Elkins. After another victory, he lost two out of three fights against title caliber fighters Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone with a no decision against Nik Lentz due to an illegal knee sandwiched in between. I question why the UFC was putting him against that type of competition at age twenty one but it may turn out to be for the best as he has decided to move down to the featherweight division and was dominant in his first fight at that weight against Wisely. He made quick work of his overmatched opponent with a ridiculous calf slicer that most fight fans including myself had never seen used to finish a fight. This fight represents an appropriate step up in competition. He should have the advantage over Brookins wherever the fight goes but he will need to stay tight with his technique to earn the victory. Look for Oliveira to utilize his excellent striking game while being perfectly willing to display his grappling gift should Brookins decide to take the fight in that direction. Either way, Oliveira has the potential to give the fans an explosive finish.

Oliveira is a solid favorite at -200 with Brookins the underdog at +170. Oliveira has the talent advantage everywhere in this fight and I’m actually surprised the line isn’t a little more one-sided but I don’t blame the bookmakers for being wary of underestimating Brookins who has a habit of upsetting more talented opponents. Oliveira should have opportunities early against Brookins but if he doesn’t take advantage or if he gets sloppy or overconfident, Brookins can steal this fight. A longer fight benefits Brookins and if he can turn this into an ugly scrap with lots of close fighting against the cage, he might be able to grind his way to a decision.

By Alan Wells

Wanderlei Silva and Vitor Belfort’s Wife Trade Words Amidst “The Phenom’s” Withdrawal From UFC 147

(She makes a~~n arousing~~ compelling argument.)

It has not been a good year for heated rematches set against the backdrop of MMA-themed reality shows. Not only were our hopes of Faber/Cruz III dashed before our very eyes on the tail end of what has been a forgettable season of TUF 15 here in America, but even the coaches of TUF: Brazil (or at least one-half of them) have been bitten by the injury bug, delaying a rematch that not only promised guaranteed fireworks, but one that has eluded us for what seems like a decade now.

And apparently Wanderlei Silva, a.k.a the TUF: Brazil coach who wasn’t forced out of his expected matchup at UFC 147, shares our frustration. Ever since Vitor Belfort was forced to withdraw from his much-anticipated rematch with “The Axe Murderer” due to a broken hand, Silva has seemingly exploded with rage at Belfort’s…I don’t know, clumsiness? Insolence? We’re not really sure how you criticize someone for getting injured, unless that someone is Ken Shamrock, of course, but Wandy was relentless in his mockery of Belfort, calling him an “amateur” among other things in a recent Twitter tirade:

(Fighting me) with one hand (laughs)? We are professionals. It’s a great irresponsibility not to be careful on training, a great disrespect towards the fans. I’m really sad. I’m ready to knock you out, you have nowhere to run. This fight is happening. I guess you got scared of me. Nobody trains so hard that breaks his hand. We use the best equipments, gloves, bandages.

More from Silva’s Twitter rant, along with Joana’s response, are after the jump.

(She makes a~~n arousing~~ compelling argument.)

(Fighting me) with one hand (laughs)? We are professionals. It’s a great irresponsibility not to be careful on training, a great disrespect towards the fans. I’m really sad. I’m ready to knock you out, you have nowhere to run. This fight is happening. I guess you got scared of me. Nobody trains so hard that breaks his hand. We use the best equipments, gloves, bandages.

If you were scared, you shouldn’t have accepted it. If you really got it broken, it’s amateurism and if you didn’t, you’re scared. In both scenarios, it was irresponsible of you towards the fans. Pardon the word, but I’m pissed with your amateurism. A main event on the biggest event of the world and the guy shows up like that.

Of course, when asked to respond to these harsh claims, Belfort was his usual combination of respectful/devout, refusing to trade insults with his long time rival. His lovely, lovely, wife, on the other hand, would not stand idly by and listen to her man be made a fool of, responding to Wanderlei with this little poorly-translated zinger:

The only thing Wanderlei can do is talk too much, he chickened out several times on fighting Vitor… and now he comes to talk my husband is ducking. If you doubt, the next opponent of Wand in UFC147 will beat the record of 40 sec of vitor Belfort or Chris Leben 20 seconds hahahaha.

Aaaaaand boom goes the dynamite. As much as we love Wandy, the fact that Vitor, you know, utterly destroyed him in their first meeting doesn’t really help his “Vitor’s scared” theory. There has been no response from Wanderlei, nor a replacement opponent named for his expected appearance at UFC 147, so we ask unto you, Potato Nation, who would you like to see “The Axe Murderer” face come June 23rd?

–J. Jones

Second champion down, second Interim belt on the line (Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber)

As we all know, one of the most exciting aspects in the sport of mma is the bitter feuds between rivals. As an avid mixed martial arts enthusiast, one can only hope that two rivals.

As we all know, one of the most exciting aspects in the sport of mma is the bitter feuds between rivals. As an avid mixed martial arts enthusiast, one can only hope that two rivals may contend toe to toe in the octagon, to try and determine who was all talk, and who packed a punch, literally, behind their words. The most exciting fight though between rivals is that of a rubber match, the third fight to determine who really comes out on top.

This is the case with Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber. As reigning UFC Bantamweight champion, Dominick Cruz has seen only one loss in his career: the likes of Urijah Faber. They first met at WEC 26. Faber won the fight due to guillotine choke, and successfully defended his title. Years later, after the WEC merged with the UFC, Faber fought against Cruz for Cruz’s championship belt in UFC 132. This time, by unanimous decision, Cruz came out on top.

Now, all UFC fans have been anxiously waiting for the rubber match between these two fighters at UFC. The anticipation and thrill of deciding the ultimate victor is almost too much to bear. I personally had already ordered my ‘Team Cruz’ shirt, put aside my money for pay-per-view, and was already clearing my schedule for the fight. Then while watching The Ultimate Fighter Live on FX, it was announced that Dominick Cruz was out on ACL injury. I was utterly mortified.

One of the frustrating aspects of mma is injury. It happens to the best of fighters, and is a condition that even the best of fighters may face. At UFC 148, Faber will now get the chance to fight for the interim belt. But against who? No one quite knows yet. Not only is this a huge upset for fans, but also for Faber and his training team. He now has to re-focus on a new fighter, a new strategy, and someone with different fighting skills. The only problem is he still has no idea what this entails. As a true gentleman of the sport, he has already stated he does not care who is scheduled to fight him, and he shows no favoritism towards any one fighter to go against.

We can only hope that an opponent is chosen soon for the previous WEC champion. My bet is that Michael McDonald will be slated to fight Faber in July. Whoever his opponent is, one can only hope that Faber does win the fight. Any avid fan of the feud between these two bantamweights can hope to finally see who will come out on top. As their running record stands 1-1 in fights between each other, we are forced to wait for Cruz to heal until we will finally get the privilege to see the ultimate champion between these remarkable fighters.

-Elise Kapala

Reminder: Urijah Faber’s New UFC 148 Opponent Will Be Revealed on This Week’s Episode of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’

(Holy shit! That dude looks tough!)

If the abysmal ratings of The Ultimate Fighter 15 are any indication (hint: they are), then most of you are likely not up to speed on the happenings of this season, and I’m no exception. For instance, I couldn’t even name one of the participants still competing (Steve Sicilia?), nor could I tell you which phase of the tournament we are currently in. I chalk up my lack of enthusiasm over TUF 15 to the show’s shift to Friday nights, because personally, I’d rather get bombed on a mixture of hand grenades and PBR and hit on a mid-30’s divorcee with lowered self-esteem then watch Team Faber strip down and get a good sweat on in Team Cruz’s locker room, not that there’s anything wrong with that. But this Friday’s episode may mark the first time in the season that you and I might actually want to hold off on the brain damage and sexual harassment lawsuits for the time being.

After it was revealed that Dominick Cruz had suffered an ACL injury and would be forced out of his trilogy fight with Urijah Faber in last week’s episode, Dana White announced that during this week’s episode, he would reveal Cruz’s replacement. The mystery opponent will square off against Faber at UFC 148 for the interim bantamweight title, because the UFC simply can’t have enough interim champs at one time.

Join us after the jump for more on this story.

(Holy shit! That dude looks tough!)

If the abysmal ratings of The Ultimate Fighter 15 are any indication (hint: they are), then most of you are likely not up to speed on the happenings of this season, and I’m no exception. For instance, I couldn’t even name one of the participants still competing (Steve Sicilia?), nor could I tell you which phase of the tournament we are currently in. I chalk up my lack of enthusiasm over TUF 15 to the show’s shift to Friday nights, because personally, I’d rather get bombed on a mixture of hand grenades and PBR and hit on a mid-30′s divorcee with lowered self-esteem then watch Team Faber strip down and get a good sweat on in Team Cruz’s locker room, not that there’s anything wrong with that. But this Friday’s episode may mark the first time in the season that you and I might actually want to hold off on the brain damage and sexual harassment lawsuits for the time being.

Rumors instantly started springing up that everyone from Michael McDonald, who is coming off a brilliant knockout of former WEC bantamweight champion Miguel Torres, to Renan Barao, who is currently scheduled to face Ivan Menjivar at the same event, would be next in line for a crack at Urijah. However, Barao recently told Tatame that the UFC had yet to contact him on the potential of facing Faber, but that he would be more than willing if the opportunity presented itself:

It would be great. Actually, I fight any guy UFC tells me to. I’m prepared and I can fight anyone.

I started my preparation and I’ll fight anyone they tell me to. I’ll be prepared to go there and do a good jog and a good fight. My focus in on Menjivar. It’s all speculations, bets. I’m slated to fight Menjivar.

It’s a fans thing. They want it to happen. People on Facebook and Twitter want me to be in this fight and Faber himself pointed me out. The champion got injured and Faber is fighting. I’d be really glad to confront him. That’s all. They haven’t say anything to me.

So who do you think will be the man to step up, Potato Nation? And if not Barao or McDonald, then who else?

Personally, I’m hopping on the quickly growing bandwagon of people that think we should just cut our losses and have Stephan Bonnar and Forrest Griffin duke it out again for old time’s sake. Any other takers?

-J. Jones

Stephan Bonnar Wants to Coach ‘TUF 16? Against Forrest Griffin, Promises Not to Block Any Punches in Trilogy Fight

(Best frenemies forever.)

Through the majority of their parallel UFC careers, Stephan Bonnar has played second-banana to Forrest Griffin. The relationship started with Griffin’s career-launching win over Bonnar in their classic brawl at the first Ultimate Fighter finale in 2005; a rematch the following year resulted in the American Psycho going home with another decision loss and a steroid suspension. While Griffin was winning the UFC light-heavyweight title in 2008, Bonnar was on the sidelines due to injuries, and though Griffin occasionally ate a humiliating loss, Bonnar’s losses were even more embarrassing.

But lately, the two men have begun to shift trajectories. A not-quite-motivated Griffin suffered an ugly knockout against Mauricio Rua in Brazil last year, and is now booked in a relatively needless trilogy fight against Tito Ortiz in July. With Forrest in a holding pattern, Bonnar is now riding a three-fight win streak, with W’s over Krzysztof Soszynski, Igor Pokrajac, and Kyle Kingsbury. In other words, Griffin might be heading down the mountain, while Bonnar is somehow reaching another peak in his career — which makes it an ideal time for the two rivals to meet one last time, perhaps at the end of an Ultimate Fighter gig that would bring their lives full circle. At least, that’s how Bonnar sees it. Here’s what he told MMAJunkie Radio:

(Best frenemies forever.)

“Everyone out there please harass Dana White on Twitter to let me and Forrest coach the next season (of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’). If he does that, I can guarantee a barn-burning slugfest…I won’t go for any takedowns. I won’t block any punches. I’ll just be moving forward. I’m serious I would just go and slug it out and try to top our first one. What the hell do I have to lose? I want to give the fans a good one…I’ve had a couple nice technical wins now without much damage. But now I’m actually missing the damage…When you get into a couple of wars in a row, you’re like, ‘Screw this,’ but if we got to be coaches, I would be so thankful. I’d get hit a ton. I’ve ate plenty of his punches over the years.”

Promising to get hit in the face a lot is one of the most bizarre matchmaking pitches we’ve ever heard, and is perhaps evidence that Bonnar has already gotten hit in the face too many times as it is. But you can’t argue with the compelling symmetry of having the two light-heavyweight warriors coach against each other on the show that made them (and the UFC) famous seven years ago — and it seems like a perfect recipe to revive the interest in TUF.

Plus, let’s call a spade a spade, here: Griffin may be losing his edge in the cage, and Bonnar probably feels like he should pounce while he has some momentum, so he can balance out their rivalry. As Quinton Jackson demonstrated against Wanderlei Silva, the first two fights in a trilogy are just battles; the last fight truly decides the war.