ufc 134 predictions

(The Royce Gracie of our generation poses with the Anderson Silva of his generation. Props: facebook.com/ufc)

On August 27th, Rio de Janeiro will be Blowout City. Aside from two matches on the preliminary card — Loveland vs. Jabouin and Assuncao vs. Eduardo — every fight at UFC 134: Silva vs. Okami features a fighter who’s a 2-1 favorite or higher. In times like these, it’s not about picking the winners, it’s about picking the upsets. So where they at? Check out the UFC 134 gambling lines below (via BestFightOdds), and consider our advice after the jump.

Main Card (PPV, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
Anderson Silva (-471) vs. Yushin Okami (+425)
Maurício Rua (-220) vs. Forrest Griffin (+225)
Brendan Schaub (-230) vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (+216)
Edson Barboza (-300) vs. Ross Pearson (+280)
Luis Cane (-200) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (+195)

Spike TV Prelims Live (8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT)
Thiago Tavares (-205) vs. Spencer Fisher (+200)
Rousimar Palhares (-275) vs. Dan Miller (+252)

Facebook Prelims (6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT)
Paulo Thiago (-389) vs. David Mitchell (+340)
Raphael Assunção (-160) vs. Johnny Eduardo (+149)
Erick Silva (-270) vs. Luis Ramos (+246)
Yuri Alcantara (-437) vs. Felipe Arantes (+379)
Ian Loveland (-195) vs. Yves Jabouin (+180)

The Main Event: If you think Okami can pull off a Sonnen-esque bullying of Anderson Silva without getting triangle-choked in the last round, feel free to throw your money down on the big payoff. But I don’t see it happening. Silva won’t let Okami get close to him. He’ll invent a new way to knock Okami out, or rout him to a decision. He ain’t losing in his home country, certainly not to a mere mortal like Yushin.

The Co-Main: Here’s where things get interesting. When Griffin and Shogun first met in 2007, Forrest was a +260 underdog. Today, he’s still a +225 underdog, despite the fact that he won their first meeting, and is currently riding a two-fight win streak. This match will depend entirely on what kind of shape Rua shows up in. If we see the Shogun that blitzed Machida last year, then Forrest is a dead man walking. Otherwise, the odds on Forrest are too juicy to pass up. We’d roll the dice on him.

The Other Good ‘Dogs: Newcomer Johnny Eduardo is facing a steep jump in competition, but his aggressive striking might allow him to overwhelm the struggling Raphael Assunção. Plus, Thiago Tavares is a bit overvalued here at -205, and the well-traveled Spencer Fisher is worth a small risk.

Absolutely Don’t Bet On: David Mitchell is cannon-fodder, drafted to re-build Paulo Thiago. Luis Ramos is a late replacement for Mike Swick, and he’ll be facing Erick Silva, who has been drawing tons of “next big thing” buzz in Brazil. Dan Miller will very likely be submitted via leglock.

Play It Straight: Big Nog is aging badly, returning from major surgeries, and has used up the last of his career comebacks. Brendan Schaub is fired up to win, and I think he takes it with his fists; -230 is not a terrible price for a straight bet. You may also want to consider money on Luis Cane, whose opponent is making his UFC debut with over a year of ring-rust.

Official CagePotato Parlay: A. Silva + Schaub + Palhares + Thiago. $20 bet returns $36.12 profit. I know, that’s barely worth the effort. Add in FoGriff and Edson Barboza and that twenty-spot becomes $189.50, but you’re playing with fire.

Filed under: UFC

Will Anderson Silva improve to 14-0 in the UFC, or will Yushin Okami pull off one of the biggest upsets in MMA history? Can Shogun Rua avenge his loss to Forrest Griffin, or does Griffin have Rua’s number? Does Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira have anything left, or is Brendan Schaub going to knock Big Nog into retirement? Those are the questions I’ll answer as I predict the winners at UFC 134.

What: UFC 134: Silva vs. Okami

When: Saturday, the Spike TV preliminaries begin at 8 PM ET and the pay-per-view starts at 9.

Where: HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Predictions on the five pay-per-view fights below.

More Coverage: UFC 134 Fight Card | UFC 134 Results

Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami
Okami is the last man to defeat Silva: On Jan. 20, 2006, the two fought in the first round of a Rumble on the Rock tournament, and Silva was disqualified when he kicked Okami in the head on the ground. To the extent that their first meeting is relevant to their rematch, however, it should give Silva more confidence than it gives Okami: Silva was in control of the bout during all the stand-up exchanges until that unfortunate illegal kick the first time the fight went to the ground.

So what would Okami have to do to pull off the historic upset? The key for Okami would be to fight Silva the way Chael Sonnen fought Silva — except for the part where Sonnen got caught in a submission in the fifth round. Okami is a powerful grappler who has good takedowns and might just be able to do some of the same things to Silva that Sonnen did.

But Okami’s wrestling isn’t on the same level as Sonnen’s, and even if Okami is able to take Silva down, he’s going to have a hard time keeping Silva down. And Okami isn’t anywhere near Silva’s class as a striker. Is it possible that Okami could grind out a decision and become the new middleweight champion? Yes. Is it likely to happen? No. I think Silva wins by TKO.
Pick: Silva

Maurício Rua vs. Forrest Griffin
The co-main event is also a rematch, of Griffin’s upset victory over Rua at UFC 76. Going into that fight, most people thought Rua — a Pride wrecking machine making his UFC debut — would run through Griffin, who was very popular but known mostly for his stint on The Ultimate Fighter. Instead it was Griffin who finished Rua with a rear-naked choke in the third round.

Rua is again a big favorite this time around, as most people seem to think that Rua is healthier now than he was then, and that Griffin, at age 32, isn’t quite the fighter he once was. But I’m not convinced. I think Griffin’s size and strength is going to be tough for Rua to handle on the ground, and Griffin’s use of leg kicks will be very important to slowing Rua down. I see Griffin winning a hard-fought decision.
Pick: Griffin

Brendan Schaub vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira
Nogueira has had a long and honorable MMA career spanning more than a decade, and he’s finally fighting in his native Brazil for the first time. So it would be great to see him put on a phenomenal performance.

Unfortunately, there’s not much reason to believe Nogueira has any phenomenal performances left in him. He’s been inactive for a year and a half, so ring rust may be a problem, and in his last fight he was knocked cold by Cain Velasquez. Nogueira was once legendary for his chin, but that knockout loss to Velasquez — as well as Nogueira’s TKO loss to Frank Mir at UFC 92 — has me thinking Schaub could put him to sleep.

Schaub is a former football player who only started fighting three years ago, so he’s got nothing close to the experience of Nogueira, but he’s strong as a bull and hits like a Mack truck. I expect Schaub to handle Nogueira, and as a longtime Minotauro fan, I just hope it’s not an ugly loss.
Pick: Schaub

Ross Pearson vs. Edson Barboza
Pearson won Season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter and has shown since then a real propensity for landing effective punches and putting on exciting fights. But Barboza is a different kind of striker, a guy whose leg kicks are legendary and who is capable of finishing opponents with his hands, his elbows or his knees. The 25-year-old Barboza is 8-0 and a rising star in the lightweight division, and he should earn his biggest victory to date against Pearson.
Pick: Barboza

Luiz Cane vs. Stanislav Nedkov
Win or lose, Cane’s fights usually end quickly: He’s been to the second round just twice in his 14-fight career. The 11-0 Nedkov is also a finisher, with five wins by technical knockout and four by submission, so don’t expect this fight to go the distance. I think Cane will welcome Nedkov to the UFC with a TKO win.
Pick: Cane

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