Tag: UFC 166

The landscape of multiple weight classes are set to be affected at UFC 166 on Saturday night. 

Just how drastic those effects will be depends on whether or not a few of the favorites on the card can stay away from the upset bug. 

While plenty of favorites might seem like sure bets, a handful of underdogs on the card have what it takes to spring the upset. In a sport that can turn at any second, you can throw the odds out the window. These fighters have to be on top of their game to pick up the win. 

Odds via Bovada, statistics via FightMetric unless otherwise noted.

 

Gilbert Melendez (-650) vs. Diego Sanchez (+425)

Gilbert Melendez is a sizable favorite to defeat Diego Sanchez on the evening’s main card, but don’t be so quick to count out “The Dream.” 

Sanchez isn’t the most technical fighter, but he has the cardio and mentality to turn any fight into a brawl. His 2.83 significant strikes landed per minute are right up there with Melendez’s 3.09 clip, and he actually lands with more accuracy (38 percent to 32 percent). 

Melendez doesn’t have that great of an advantage in the stand-up department. He holds a strong advantage in terms of wrestling, but Sanchez defends 53 percent of takedown attempts, so he could sprawl and brawl his way to the upset victory. 

 

John Dodson (-400) vs. Darrell Montague (+300)

Based on the odds for this fight, Dodson may be getting too much respect against a relatively unknown opponent. 

It’s easy to see Dodson’s appeal. Since winning The Ultimate Fighter 14, he’s climbed the ladder at 125 pounds and put in a respectable showing against champion Demetrious Johnson. Now he’s trying to get back on the title track against someone whom most fans haven’t even heard of. 

That doesn’t mean Montague should be discounted, though. He is 13-2 in his career with his latest loss coming against Ian McCall in 2011. Since then, he’s won four straight with three finishes to his name. 

The obvious retort to his record is a lack of quality competition, but that goes both ways. We haven’t seen what Montague can do against the best of the best in the UFC, so he could pose a threat to Dodson. 

 

Sarah Kaufman (-200) vs. Jessica Eye (+160)

By the time the prelims are over, we may have another contender in the women’s bantamweight division. Sarah Kaufman won’t have an easy night with Jessica Eye in her promotional debut. 

Kaufman comes into the fight with the more impressive big-show resume. In addition to being a former Strikeforce champion, she holds victories over Liz Carmouche, Alexis Davis and Miesha Tate. 

However, Eye is a dangerous opponent with a seven-fight win streak and an 11-1 record. She doesn’t have flashy knockout power or submissions, but she’s capable of wearing opponents down and grinding out decisions. If Kaufman is depending on knocking her out in a slugfest, she may be in for the upset of the night. 

 

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Think Cain Velasquez earning a unanimous decision win is a lock? Certain the Daniel Cormier vs. Roy Nelson contest will end in the first round? 

There are plenty of interesting prop bets out there for UFC 166 Saturday evening, allowing the more adventurous gambler to get his or her fix. 

From picking certain fighters to win certain ways or calling which round a fight will end, we’ve got the most interesting prop bets for UFC 166 right here.

 

Cain Velasquez wins via UD (+205)

First off, I do believe Velasquez wins this fight via unanimous decision. He threw everything at dos Santos last time out, yet Cigano continued to fight back. Velasquez is a monster in the cage and could very well finish this one (or even get finished himself), but picking him to win a UD is a pretty safe play. 

 

Daniel Cormier vs. Roy Nelson goes to decision (-155)

Is it crazy to suggest that if this fight gets stopped, Nelson will be the one doing it? Cormier packs a mean punch, but “Big Country” has taken a beating from the best of them and kept coming. That said, few are picking Nelson to win, pushing the odds in favor of a unanimous decision. 

This is interesting mostly due to the fact that it’s a heavyweight fight. This contest could be over in the first round and no one would be all that shocked. Still, considering the two heavyweights in the cage, it makes sense placing the odds for a decision in the -150 range. 

 

Nelson wins via KO, TKO or DQ (+685)

Again, Nelson has his work cut out for him, but if he’s going to win this fight, it’s going to be via knockout. So, you feeling lucky? Do you think Nelson can do it? If so, the payout will be big. But those odds are that high because a Nelson finish is a real long shot. 

 

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shawn Jordan ends in the first round (-115)

While Nelson and Cormier‘s bout is not expected to end in the first, second or third round, odds point to Gonzaga vs. Jordan finishing early. It’s hard to argue with them, considering each fighter is a pretty quick starter with fierce power. That said, if either elects for a more cautious approach, this fight could last longer than five minutes. 

 

Shawn Jordan wins via decision (+465)

If you’re looking to hedge that first-round finish bet, taking Jordan via decision is a good play with a high payout. Of course, if you’re certain Gonzaga would take a decision, then feel free to go with him at +726. Just keep in mind he hasn’t won a decision since…wait, he’s never won via decision. 

 

Gilbert Melendez def. Diego Sanchez via decision (-160)

If I had to give you a lock, it’d be that Sanchez vs. Melendez goes to decision. If I had to pick a bit beyond just that prediction, I’d say Melendez wins it. Sanchez can take a beating and has a good motor, but Melendez is a top-five lightweight who is simply better. 

 

John Dodson def. Darrell Montague via submission (+926)

I’m fully aware that Dodson does not win by submission all too often, but that’s the beauty of a prop bet. The last time Darrell Montague was defeated, Ian McCall submitted him in the third round of their contest. Dodson is better than McCall, and he could damage Montague with that nasty power. It’s a long shot, but don’t be stunned if Dodson manages to lock on a choke after dazing his opponent. 

 

Note: This is not a gambler’s guide; it’s merely a look into some of the more intriguing prop bets, along with the safer ones. We’re analyzing the logic behind the odds, not suggesting an individual should make a wager. 

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