The next excursion on pay-per-view for the UFC comes in the form of UFC 169 on Saturday. Headlined by two title fights, it promises to be one of the best cards in the early going of 2014.
The bantamweight championship will be on the line, as newly…
The next excursion on pay-per-view for the UFC comes in the form of UFC 169 on Saturday. Headlined by two title fights, it promises to be one of the best cards in the early going of 2014.
The bantamweight championship will be on the line, as newly minted undisputed champion Renan Barao defends his title in a rematch against Urijah Faber. Barao was originally supposed to fight Dominick Cruz, but an injury took the former champion out of the bout, effectively stripping him of his bantamweight gold.
Also, the featherweight championship will be contested, as longtime champ Jose Aldo meets a stiff test in the form of Ricardo Lamas at 145 pounds. Lamas is the first in a long line of contenders who are swimming the shark-infested waters of the featherweight division.
My picks for UFC on Fox 10 in Chicago were decent at best. Sometimes we go through slumps, so I hope New Jersey’s prelim card is kinder to me.
However, before that, we have the preliminary card with many new faces and a few familiar ones. Here are the predictions for those fights.
Urijah Faber deserves the respect of everyone south of 155lbs.
There was a long time when the featherweight division was just him and Kid Yamamoto putting together highlight reels on opposite sides of the globe. While the UFC’s first featherweight cham…
Urijah Faber deserves the respect of everyone south of 155lbs.
There was a long time when the featherweight division was just him and Kid Yamamoto putting together highlight reels on opposite sides of the globe. While the UFC’s first featherweight champion was Jose Aldo, no one is more responsible for the success of the featherweight division, and its reputation for excitement, than Urijah Faber.
Since being dethroned in the WEC by Mike Brown, Faber has been on campaign after campaign to gain another world title, but has fallen at the last hurdle each and every time. With his old nemesis, Dominick Cruz, dropping out of a bantamweight unification bout with RenanBarao, Faber has stepped up at short notice to rematch Barao for what could be the last time.
In traditional Faber fashion, he has decimated every contender put in front of him up to this title fight. Yet it seems highly unlikely that Faber will get another shot at bantamweight gold should he lose this fight and Barao remain the champion for some time.
So without further delay, let’s take a look at their first bout and what Faber could do to perhaps get the better of the Brazilian champion.
Distance and Movement
Faber’s first bout with Barao showed many of the same tendencies which his matches with Jose Aldo and Dominick Cruz did. Urijah Faber has real trouble using appropriate distance against decent strikers.
What Faber does so well is to run in on his opponents with his right hand, or to get them chasing him, then stop and throw his right hand over the top. It has always been that way. His finish of Michael McDonald is being praised as a rebirth for Faber, but really the counter right hand which won him the bout wasn’t far removed from the one he hurt Eddie Wineland with. If you chase Urijah Faber, he’s going to stop and chuck a right hand over the top, and it’s probably going to knock you down.
What Faber doesn’t deal well with is an opponent whom he can’t simply run in on, but who won’t chase him and give him these opportunities to fire over the top. Men like Jose Aldo and RenanBarao.
The thing about strong kickers is that you have to always be too far away for them to kick you, or too close for them to kick you without risking being bundled over or hit. It seems strange to point to Wanderlei Silva for an example of strategic excellence, but his bout with Cung Le demonstrated this amply.
Instead, Faber moves around a little bit, then stands straight in front of his opponent, in a range where he cannot reach them with his right hook, but they can reach him with their kicks and jab. It was almost identical in the Barao and Aldo fights.
No Left Hand
This is a real problem for Faber. It is one thing to be a puncher trying to fight strong kickers, but if you only have one hand with which you can land with any dexterity, you are going to have a really hard time getting there.
Nowhere is this more noticeable than against strong kickers like Aldo and Barao. He will park himself in front of them and extend his right hand to check their left. This is an awesome little trick if you have a killer jab like George Foreman, or a slick-leaping left hook and left uppercut like Roy Jones Jr. If all of your power punches come off of your right side, however, and your right hand is extended to check, you have put yourself in a purely defensive position.
Really the only thing which Faber can do from this right hand extended, checking position is to pick up his left leg for a teep (push kick). This is actually a pretty good idea against strong kickers, most folks know that when someone is on one leg, or initiating a kick, you need only give them a slight nudge and it will knock them right out of the kick and perhaps to the floor. Indeed, Faber was able to knock Barao to the floor with a well-timed teep.
Deep Stance
This brings us to something else which works against Faber in his fights against strong kickers. It’s certainly not a mistake but rather preference. Faber fights in a very wide crouch, ready to throw his right hand or shoot in at his opponent’s hips. As a result, he struggles to get his leg up to check kicks in time and those teeps we talked about a minute ago are much slower, more telegraphed and more laboured than any you would see a fighter in a higher stance throw.
Notice in this instance how Faber sees a kick coming, raises his leg to check, but is in such a deep, side on stance that his check is simply kicked across his body rather than acting as a barrier.
Conclusions
Time constraints have prevented me from researching and writing a full “Killing the King: RenanBarao” but I hope to have pointed to some of the factors which gave Faber such a hard time in their last meeting.
RenanBarao is far from without weaknesses though. Eddie Wineland boxed him up nicely in the first round of their fight before getting knocked out by a breathtaking back kick.
One of the best thing which Faber could do for this bout, and for his career as a whole, is to develop a solid counter left hook. Everyone he fights is just looking out for the one hand at present, and he has so much opportunity to work with the other side.
RenanBarao has one of the finest jabs that I have seen in MMA, and slick kicks, but every time he throws his right hand he descends into wide swings with his chin up and his hands away from his face. Faber, or any other strong puncher, stands a decent chance in simply performing catch-and-pitch style defence. Covering up and returning fire as Barao opens up. For a textbook example of this, check out Quinton Jackson versus Wanderlei Silva III.
Whoever wins at UFC 169, it promises to be a fantastic event and is probably the strongest card of the year so far. Don’t miss it, and watch out for these tells in Faber’s game.
Pick up Jack’s eBooks Advanced Striking and Elementary Striking from his blog, Fights Gone By. Jack can also be found on Facebook and Twitter.
What better way to spend Super Bowl Eve than huddled in front of a television watching Octagon excellence?
Besides maybe seeing your firstborn son take his first steps, there really isn’t.
Dressed to impress, UFC 169 this Saturday has all the fixings f…
What better way to spend Super Bowl Eve than huddled in front of a television watching Octagon excellence?
Besides maybe seeing your firstborn son take his first steps, there really isn’t.
Dressed to impress, UFC 169 this Saturday has all the fixings for “Event of the Year.” Scattered throughout the card are two title fights, a titanic heavyweight collision with epic proportions, two heavy-handed flyweights, an undefeated Tristar prodigy and a lightweight nicknamed “Killa.”
As if it needs to be said, do not miss this weekend’s brutality.
But despite the potential on paper, what fights really have a chance of producing? Which fighters will impress the most en route to capturing one of the UFC’s lucrative Fight Night bonuses?
Look no further:
Fight of the Night—Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber
Considering the unfortunate circumstances that Faber encountered the first time he met Barao inside the cage—with his sister’s tragic car crash and having not competed in nearly 11 months—it’s likely that he’ll perform much better in the rematch.
Currently riding one of the most impressive win streaks in MMA right now, “The California Kid” will carry unprecedented momentum to the cage Saturday night at UFC 169. But will it be enough to beat a champion that hasn’t been defeated since his very first professional bout over eight years ago?
It all depends.
Faber was able to touch up Barao the first time around, but it was the Brazilian’s athleticism and long range that allowed him to capture a relatively one-sided decision.
However, Faber did suffer a rib injury in the very first round of their five-round war, so it’s possible things could have ended differently had he been able to maintain health throughout. But that’s the name of the game, and Faber ultimately paid for his mistakes with a knee to his body.
With all of that said, the 34-year-old Team Alpha Male standout has never looked better. But neither has Barao. Every single time we see the 26-year-old champ take center stage, he seems to add more layers to an already bulletproof arsenal.
So while it’s truly difficult to predict a winner, it isn’t so hard to suggest that these two elite bantamweights will produce one of the best fights of the year. There’s no way Faber is going down without a fight, and there’s no chance in hell Barao relinquishes his belt without leaving everything he has on the floor of New Jersey’s Prudential Center.
Knockout of the Night—Alistair Overeem
Like a rat pinned down by gang of cats, Overeem has his back against the wall entering Saturday’s heavyweight showdown with former champion Frank Mir.
He has lost back-to-back fights since nearly decapitating Brock Lesnar back in 2011 and has lost almost all of the momentum he possessed when he was signed nearly three years ago.
So while both fighters need a victory at UFC 169 to prolong their stay in the biggest promotion in the world, it is Overeem who must win to cement his legacy in the sport.
Because if the big guy can’t hack it in the UFC, was he ever really that good?
It’s a question that the slick-kicking Dutchman will answer when he gets inside and clinches with Mir. Josh Barnett recently showcased Mir’s inability to take damage up close when the two met back at UFC 164.
Combine that with the fact that Overeem possesses the very best Muay Thai around and you have a recipe for Knockout of the Night. A flashy finish over a guy like Mir is a quick way for Overeem to make people forget about his recent mid-fight collapses.
Submission of the Night—Jamie Varner
In arguably the most overlooked fight on the entire card, Varner will attempt to fill in for an injured red-hot Bobby Green and stop the hard-hitting Abel Trujillo.
Now, as strong and aggressive as Trujillo is on his feet, Varner is simply too crafty and game to count out. He may find out the hard way that going toe to toe with the Blackzilian is a bad idea, but he has recovered from big shots in the past.
If Varner is able to sustain the murderous onslaught that Killa is going to offer early, then he should find a way in the later rounds to sink in a submission on a less-than-tired opponent. That’s assuming Trujillo doesn’t come straight out of the gate and clock Varner into the next decade.
Either way, nine career submissions and a knack for the unimaginable suggest that the 29-year-old Varner could stop the bruising Trujillo in his tracks.
It’s Super Bowl weekend. But before the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks collide at MetLife Stadium, the UFC is taking over New Jersey on Saturday night, with one of the biggest fight cards of the year.
Since taking the throne from an i…
It’s Super Bowl weekend. But before the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks collide at MetLife Stadium, the UFC is taking over New Jersey on Saturday night, with one of the biggest fight cards of the year.
Since taking the throne from an injured Dominick Cruz, bantamweight champion RenanBarao has ruled over the 135-pound division with a level of intensity unparalleled in the rest of his competition.
Unbeaten in his last 31 bouts, this Brazilian berserker has mercilessly destroyed a majority of his victims, poising a deadly combination of destructive muaythai striking mixed with bone snapping Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
The Nova Uniao black belt was originally slated to face a returning Cruz in a title unification bout but, once again, injuries have changed the landscape.
Now the official kingpin of the bantamweight division, Barao will meet former foe Urijah Faber in the UFC 169 main event. Barao defeated Faber nearly two years ago at UFC 149 for the interim strap, but “The California Kid” is determined to rewrite history.
Also in the main event, longtime featherweight champion Jose Aldo will take on hungry contender Ricardo Lamas. Plus, heavyweight stars Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem will lock horns in a fight that could potentially see the loser lose his job.
To help me break down this card, I’ve brought back the lovely Roni Taylor. She called the UFC on FOX 10 fights so well that it only made sense to do it again for “Super Saturday!”
Ciccarelli: First off, let me congratulate you on your flawless predictions from UFC on FOX 10. I’m convinced that you have psychic powers and can see into the future. Maybe you are secretly working for the X-Men? Either way, I’m impressed.
We’ve got another huge card this weekend and two titles will be on the line! Let’s first talk about the bantamweight championship bout between RenanBarao and Urijah Faber. Originally, this was supposed to be Dominick Cruz’s return against Barao, but injuries have forced Cruz to officially vacate the belt.
Do you think we’ll ever see Cruz return at the top of the division?
Yes, absolutely. While it has been tedious and frustrating for all of us waiting on Cruz to heal from his multiple knee surgeries and now a torn groin, let’s not forget that he is 19-1 with his only loss coming from Urijah Faber way back in 2007.
Dominick’s last eight wins are over a who’s who of bantamweight and flyweight top contenders. While it is disappointing that we haven’t been able to see him in action for quite a long time, I, for one haven’t forgotten how dominant he has been, and I full well expect him to return to the top of the UFC’s bantamweight heap once he is all healed up.
Barao has taken over the bantamweight division while Cruz has been out. He defeated Faber once before at UFC 149 to earn the interim title, and it wasn’t exactly a close fight. What does Faber have to do to ensure that history doesn‘t repeat itself a second time?
I think Urijah is already doing the things that he needs to do in order to beat the champ. Ever since Duane “Bang” Ludwig joined forces with Team Alpha Male, there has been a marked improvement in the entire team’s stand-up skills. Faber’s last four fights in 2013 prove as much.
Urijah has always been incredibly athletic and able to use his wrestling and submission game to his advantage, but the missing piece of the puzzle in his last bout with Barao was the ability to connect with his striking. Urijah’s boxing was on point in his dismantling of Michael McDonald last month, and if he brings this same laser focused stand-up into the octagon this weekend, we will finally see the UFC gold hanging around the former WEC champion’s waist.
Let’s put those MMA psychic powers to the test again. Barao or Faber? What’s your official pick?
Urijah is going to stifle Renan’s game by putting his fists in the current champ’s face enough times to force Barao to shoot for a sloppy takedown. What happens next? One of those famous Faber guillotines, that’s what! “The California Kid” takes the rematch late in the third round with a submission victory.
As dominant of a champion as Barao has been, he has a ways to go before he catches up with featherweight kingpin and fellow Brazilian, Jose Aldo. If we’re counting his reign from the WEC, Aldo has been champion since 2009. He’s defended the belt seven times under the Zuffa banner.
However, I think he’s running into a roadblock here against Ricardo Lamas. Call me crazy, but I think Lamas is actually going to beat him. Do you agree? What’s your take on this fight?
I agree with you on this one. Jose has some of the nastiest leg kicks since Pedro Rizzo (just ask Uriah Faber, he is still limping from their fight back in 2010), but I don’t think they will be as much of a consideration with Ricardo as they have been with many others in the past.
Lamas has a great muaythai coach and incredibly fast feet, so if he can’t avoid the kicks altogether, he most certainly will check them just like Chris Weidman did with Anderson Silva. So, if you remove the leg kicks from the equation, I see this fight as a much closer affair than one might think at first.
Both men are jiu jitsu black belts, so I see their grappling cancelling each other out. I think Ricardo is going to put a lot of pressure on Jose from the starting bell, and after four tough rounds of back and forth, Lamas will get his chance to secure a rare takedown on Jose and ground n’ pound a TKO victory for some UFC gold.
Do you think Aldo will move up to lightweight after this fight, regardless of the outcome, to challenge Anthony Pettis, or do you see him sticking around at 145 pounds for, at least, a little while longer?
Well, if he loses like I predict, I think he would want another run at the featherweight belt again before jumping weight classes. Jose has been very dominant in his UFC career, and I think he has a lot of pride in the belt he currently holds. So, I truly see him wanting to come after Lamas to try and get the belt back…albeit an unsuccessful attempt because Lamas has his number and will win the rematch too!
So, we’re both picking Lamas here but if we’re wrong, is there anyone else in the featherweight division who can step up to Aldo right now?
Two people come to mind: Jeremy Stephens and Chad Mendes. Both men have really impressed me recently with their improved games, and I think they each possess the skills needed to take out Jose.
Jeremy is super aggressive and I truly think that his “in your face” MO is just what is needed to push Aldo off balance, long enough to succumb to a quick takedown and some nasty ground and pound.
Mendes has won four out of his last five fights by TKO/KO and, just like Faber, he has obviously been drinking from the “Bang” Ludwig Kool-Aid. This marked improvement in his striking just could be the needed push to get him the W in a rematch with Aldo.
What’s your take on the heavyweight bout between former UFC champ Frank Mir and former Strikeforce/K-1 champ Alistair Overeem? Who do you see coming out on top of that one?
Those are some big ‘ol boys about to clash this weekend. I really hope it doesn’t make it out of the first round or this could be a pretty boring fight. Neither of these guys are known for their endurance, but that first round should be a barn burner!
I think Mir and Overeem both have a point to prove after coming off of back-to-back losses. As big of a Frank Mir fan as I am, I am going to have to go with Overeem on this one.
I think Alistair finally figured out that he needs to keep his hands up and defend himself here in the UFC, and I predict a first round TKO due to “A-Bomb” knees to the body.
Alistair will stalk Mir around the octagon for the first minute, and after he pushes Frank back against the cage with a few stiff jabs, “Ubereem” will pull the Thai clinch long enough to smash in poor Frank’s ribcage and secure a much needed win.
There’s been a lot of talk about the Mir/Overeem fight being a “loser leaves town” matchup. Considering the heavyweight division isn’t nearly as stacked as the other weight classes, can you actually see the UFC cutting a marquee star like Mir or Overeem?
Not hardly. Both men are too big of a draw and the heavyweight division is too shallow to give them the boot. While it won’t do either man much good to lose another fight, until there are another five to six high quality heavyweights bouncing around in the UFC, Dana White won’t be giving either one of them their pink slip any time soon.
Do you see the winner of the Ali Bagautinov vs. John Lineker fight posing a serious threat to flyweight champ Demetrious Johnson at all?
First of all, here is a fun fact for everyone: eight out of Bagautinov’s 14 fights have been against an opponent whose last name ends in the letter “V.” Okay, now about this fight: Bagautinov will hammer out another unanimous decision win to add to his 10-fight win streak on Saturday.
Lineker is very scrappy and will make it interesting, but I just think Ali’s incredible Sambo pedigree is going to help him control the clinch and ground fighting well enough to get him the victory. With that being said, I don’t know if he will have the same success against Mighty Mouse.
I honestly think Demetrious has some of the most technically sound skills from all angles, and I don’t know if anyone will pose much of a challenge to him for a while.
Lightweights Jamie Varner and Abel Trujillo will open the PPV portion of this card. Is this a sleeper for fight of the night?
Well, yes I do think it is a sleeper, just not in the way you suggested. I think we are going to see Varner take a boring decision win by taking Trujillo down and smothering him for three rounds.
I like to call Varner “Snuggie” due to his tendency to do just that as his go-to game plan. I hope I am wrong, because nothing makes me want to take a nap more than watching 15 minutes of boring top control with minimal attempts to advance position.
For more of Roni Taylor’s MMA insight, follow her on Twitter @RoniTaylor
Mitch Ciccarelli is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report and co-host of Alchemist Radio. He is also a United States Airman. Follow him on Twitter @MitchCiccarelli and follow @AlchemistRadio.
Testosterone-replacement therapy, better known in the public eye as TRT, is as hot a topic in mixed martial arts today as concussions are in football.
It aids aging veterans in search of increased testosterone levels while fading out younger, hard…
Testosterone-replacement therapy, better known in the public eye as TRT, is as hot a topic in mixed martial arts today as concussions are in football.
It aids aging veterans in search of increased testosterone levels while fading out younger, hardworking athletes in their prime.
The epidemic has sparked massive attention throughout the MMA world and will continue to sink its teeth into the sport’s aching ethical body for the foreseeable future.
Now while much of the illegal TRT use has been met head on, many war-torn mainstays of the sport are still being exempted by cautious athletic commissions nationwide.
That’s why it didn’t come as much of a surprise when former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mirrevealed to MMA Junkie Wednesday morning that the New Jersey State Athletic Control Board granted him TRT exemption for his upcoming bout at UFC 169 this Saturday opposite Alistair Overeem.
This will serve as the third time that Mir has publicly stated that he’ll be given full permission to shift natural testosterone levels in effort to regain physicality. The other two times came against Josh Barnett at UFC 164 and Junior dos Santos for the heavyweight title at UFC 146.
The fact that Mir’s Octagon showdown this weekend is coming against one of the most controversial fighters in the sport when it comes to testosterone usage is irony at its finest.
In any case, TRT or not, Mir needs to win. Currently riding a three-fight losing streak for the first time ever, the 34-year-old needs to prove he can remain considerably productive in the twilight of his professional career.
On the heels of back-to-back losses and sporting a 1-2 promotional record, Saturday’s showdown with Frank Mir at UFC 169 likely represents Alistair Overeem’s last chance in the Octagon.
To be honest, it doesn’t figure to be a garden p…
On the heels of back-to-back losses and sporting a 1-2 promotional record, Saturday’s showdown with Frank Mir at UFC 169 likely represents Alistair Overeem’s last chance in the Octagon.
To be honest, it doesn’t figure to be a garden party for Mir, either. While UFC brass won’t confirm whether the loser can expect to find a pink slip hanging in his locker, we can all see the writing on the wall.
Writing done in 6’4″, 265-pound block letters.
Letters that have been getting smaller and smaller over time.
Despite the fact the UFC hasn’t been quite so quick to send fighters packing recently—lest it gets a sliver of Viacom’s $4 billion in cash!—this is still a must-win fight for both Mir and Overeem. Even if it doesn’t result in a dismissal, a loss here probably dooms either man’s chance of once again ascending into the heavyweight elite.
For Mir, this just seems like the natural order of things. After nearly 14 years and 22 fights in the UFC, it’s a bit less jarring to think he might be in the twilight of his career with the big show.
Overeem, though? He came to the Octagon just two years ago, with sky-high expectations and amid an 11-0-1 run on the independent scene that included him winning the Strikeforce championship.
To think this could be his last shot at greatness puts even more emphasis on what is the defining question every time he fights: Which version of Overeem will show up, the Uber or the Under?
For years—as he was tearing off a string of first-round victories overseas—Overeem was one of MMA’s most scrutinized fighters. You couldn’t look at the man’s physique, register his massive weight gains and not at least wonder.
Not if you’d paid any attention to the dominant storyline in professional sports during the last, say, 20 years.
Especially when a guy’s nickname is a play on the German word for “superman.”
When Overeem tested positive for elevated levels of testosterone prior to a scheduled meeting with Junior dos Santos in April of 2012, all of the whispers appeared to be confirmed.
In the wake of it, his bouts have become two-part affairs. There is the actual fight, but there is also the show before the show. There is the Friday afternoon weigh-in, when he strips off his shirt, steps on the scale and then we all run to the Internet to compare what we’ve just seen against previous weigh-in photos.
As he approaches this potentially career-defining fight with Mir, which will it be? Will we see the ripped He Man who tattered Brock Lesnar at UFC 141 or the somewhat softer, more normal-looking human who dropped a third-round knockout loss to Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva at UFC 156?
Or will we see a third man? Will we see someone more like the slimmer, slightly better conditioned Overeem who showed up to fight Travis Browne last August, a full 9.5 pounds shy of the heavyweight limit at 255.5?
This is silly, of course. It’s a pointless exercise that proves nothing. It may not have any bearing at all on what happens the next night when the actual fighting begins. We might even be imagining these subtle shifts in Overeem’s body.
But still, we’ll look. We’ll wonder.
We’ll wonder if the UFC has been giving him the Vitor Belfort treatment, testing the daylights out of him even as Overeem completed much of his pre-fight camp in Thailand. We’ll wonder if after this fight, stories will emerge alleging his testosterone levels were dangerously low, as they did following the Silva loss.
We may also puzzle over which Overeem we’ll get when the referee drops the hanky on Saturday night. Will he storm out of his corner and obliterate Mir, like the fearsome UFC 141-version of him did to Lesnar? Or will he seem somehow less endowed with killer instinct, less explosive and less terrifying, like the guy we saw against both Silva and Browne?
All of this we will instantly extrapolate, based on his appearance.
Is that fair? Maybe not.
But it’s just a side effect of being one of the most talked-about, analyzed athletes in your sport.
It’s the downside of failing a surprise drug test just one fight after joining the biggest MMA promotion on the planet.
It’s the unhappy coincidence of showing up for your must-win fight just a few days after the president of that company made his strongest statements to date condemning testosterone use in MMA.
In the end, it’s the cost of being “Ubereem,” who after a failed drug test and two years of middling results in the UFC now must shoulder the heavy burden of our doubts.
