UFC 170 Predictions: How Each Main Card Fight Will End

UFC 170 hits pay-per-view on Saturday night with a five-fight main card. Ronda Rousey defends her title against fellow Olympian Sara McMann while Daniel Cormier takes on his newfound nemesis Pat Cummins in the co-main event.
The rest of the main card i…

UFC 170 hits pay-per-view on Saturday night with a five-fight main card. Ronda Rousey defends her title against fellow Olympian Sara McMann while Daniel Cormier takes on his newfound nemesis Pat Cummins in the co-main event.

The rest of the main card is rounded out with a series of welterweight bouts, including a competitive scrap between Rory MacDonald and Demian Maia.

Here are some predictions on how these fights, and the rest, will end.

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Seth vs. Jared: UFC 170 Edition


(And the Lord sayeth, “You can not defeat me, Lucifer, for I am willing to die in here.”)

Tonight’s UFC 170 card poses a lot of intriguing questions: Is Ronda Rousey‘s striking *really* “the best in the game?” Can a last second injury in your co-main event be used as a legal justification for homicide? What is a Yosdenis Cedeno, exactly?

Here to “intelligently” “debate” at least one of those questions are CagePotato staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo, so join them after the jump to get the inside scoop on all things UFC 170-related.

So what happens if Sara McMann actually wins on Saturday night?

JJ: Simple: Dana White dissolves the women’s bantamweight division, cancels TUF 20, and bans any MMA outlet that dares question his decision. MWAHAHAHAHA!!

Seriously though, there is no scenario in which a Rousey loss doesn’t equal an immediate rematch. I don’t care if McMann takes Rousey down in the first 5 seconds, annihilates her with ground-n-pound and then armbars her, we are getting an immediate rematch. This whole “WMMA in the UFC” thing all hinges on Rousey being the champ, right? Because I’m pretty sure that Dana White has been completely transparent about that fact since Day 1.


(And the Lord sayeth, “You can not defeat me, Lucifer, for I am willing to die in here.”)

Tonight’s UFC 170 card poses a lot of intriguing questions: Is Ronda Rousey‘s striking *really* “the best in the game?” Can a last second injury in your co-main event be used as a legal justification for homicide? What is a Yosdenis Cedeno, exactly?

Here to “intelligently” “debate” at least one of those questions are CagePotato staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo, so join them after the jump to get the inside scoop on all things UFC 170-related.

So what happens if Sara McMann actually wins on Saturday night?

JJ: Simple: Dana White dissolves the women’s bantamweight division, cancels TUF 20, and bans any MMA outlet that dares question his decision. MWAHAHAHAHA!!

Seriously though, there is no scenario in which a Rousey loss doesn’t equal an immediate rematch. I don’t care if McMann takes Rousey down in the first 5 seconds, annihilates her with ground-n-pound and then armbars her, we are getting an immediate rematch. This whole “WMMA in the UFC” thing all hinges on Rousey being the champ, right? Because I’m pretty sure that Dana White has been completely transparent about that fact since Day 1.

SF: If McMann wins, we’re getting three things: A rematch, an extremely exaggerated (if not completely fabricated) story about the personal demons that Ronda Rousey was fighting before UFC 170, and we’re all getting blamed for them in some way, shape or form. The rematch will serve as the co-main event of UFC 173: Weidman vs. Belfort, which will get moved to Brazil for some reason. Hey, it’ll be a strange UFC if McMann wins, I says.

Be honest: As Random as Cormier vs. Cummins is, isn’t it still the best we could ask for on such short notice?

SF: You know what, I’m going to take the extremely unpopular stance and say that yes, it is. On paper, it’s a squash match between the number one contender and some random guy from Twitter, yes, but aren’t those fights usually fun? Of course they are. Besides, no matter who wins this fight, the UFC can still continue their whole “XX is the future of the division!” campaign, right? That’s a lot more than we would have been able to say if Cormier vs. Sonnen was booked…

JJ: I’ll give you that Cormier vs. Cummins is a better fight than Cormier vs. Sonnen, but the best we could ask for? Nah, son.

Call me crazy, but I stand firmly in the Chael Sonnen, “Any unbooked LHW who didn’t jump at this opportunity is a coward” camp. The only thing any UFC fighter had to lose by accepting a short notice bout with Cormier was a few brain cells, and if they’re afraid of that, then brother, they’re in the wrong business (but I DO SO RESPECT THESE BRAVE WARRIOR FIGHTERS YOU GUYZ!!).

While I loved the idea of giving Cummins a shot at his “Rocky” moment when the fight was first announced – the unpredictability of MMA, after all, is one of the most intriguing aspects of the sport – I also fell back on the idea that there were plenty of unbooked, proven UFC fighters who had a lot more to offer Cormier than a story about that time they made him cry in training camp. In short, I agreed with Ben Askren’s take on the situation and felt weird inside because of it.

Upon looking over the UFC’s current list of light heavyweight fighters, however, I found that nearly everyone in the division either has a fight booked already, are coming off a loss (or multiple losses), are injured or retired, or just signed with the promotion. In fact, there is literally one guy who doesn’t fit into any of the above categories: Rafael Cavalcante. The former Strikeforce champion just steamrolled Igor Pokrajac at Fight Night 32, isn’t injured, and would make for a much more compelling reason to drop $50 on a PPV than some fabricated grudge match between an Olympian and a barista.

I give all the respect in the world to Cummins for accepting the fight, but have you even *seen* any of his fights? Dude is going to be ground into dog food inside of 3 minutes.

You have $20, and you need some horrific gambling advice. Go!

JJ: As one of our readers pointed out in the Gambling Enabler, a ten dollar bet on a McMann – Cummins – Maia parlay nets you over $1000 ($1,639 to be exact). I’ll double down on that bet and make a cool…uh…$4000.

SF: Maybe I’m just old-fashioned, but I prefer my terrible gambling advice to come from a real hack journalist, and not just some random guy from the comments section. Now then, if you’re looking for some horrific advice, then I’d suggest a Rousey/Cormier parlay. You’ll start sweating bullets if either fight makes it past the first minute, and your twenty dollars will only return a whopping $5.71 in profit from BetUS.com. Talk about not being worth the (almost non-existent) risk.

Now, if your idea of horrific gambling advice involved asking me for genuine advice as a way to mock me, then know that I decided to parlay my grad school alma mater UL-Lafayette’s men’s basketball team covering the spread against Troy (which they did) with Rory MacDonald defeating Demian Maia. I will use my winnings to put a picture of me holding my thumbs up on the trunks of a Hip Show competitor, “Ravishing” Rick Rude style.

Take your best guess as to what the PPV numbers for UFC 170 will look like.

JJ: Without launching into the same discussion about oversaturation, quantity over quality and “garbage-asses” that we’ve all had a thousand times, I will say that UFC 170 is a “tough sell” to both casual and hardcore MMA fans. While the UFC of days past would have taken the best matchups from Fight Night 36 (mainly, Machida vs. Mousasi) and UFC 170 and combined them into one stacked card actually worthy of my purchase, we are living in the era of “World Fucking Domination,” which this weekend will equate to less than 300,000 PPV buys. Ronda Rousey may be the quote unquote “ biggest star the UFC  has ever had,” but UFC 170 will offer evidence to the contrary.

Seriously though, how great would it be if UFC 170 had Lyoto Machida, Gegard Mousasi, and Jacare Souza to support it? Maybe then the UFC wouldn’t have to shop for fighters at the Starbucks drive-thru to justify charging us $50 for a garbage-ass (sorry, I had to) pay-per-view. One can only dream…(*gazes out window and tosses back whiskey*)

SF: So, remember when “I predict a card with a title fight and three Olympians will draw less than 500k buys” would have actually sounded stupid? And not in a “Well no shit, dumbass” sort of way, but in a “You must be high out of your damn mind” way? Oh man, those were the days when…hang on… (*swings open front door and yells at hoodlums skateboarding on MY sidewalk*)

If only to keep this column from being us agreeing with each other while occasionally hi-fiving, I’ll say that this card draws more than 300k buys. But not more than 350k buys, because what sort of contrarian asshole do you think I am?

Demian Maia and Rory MacDonald are both coming off “disappointing” performances against Jake Shields and Robbie Lawler, respectively. Who gets back in the win column on Saturday?

SF: Maia had this locked up the second I bet money on MacDonald, because I am not allowed to have nice things.

JJ: Although Maia has looked outstanding at welterweight, save his most recent fight with Shields, I gotta go with the “future of the welterweight division” in this one. We (the “MMA media”) have been riding MacDonald’s jock ever since he entered the UFC, and the pressure on “Ares” to finally achieve his potential is more intense than ever. Against a high-profile fighter and former middleweight title challenger like Maia, methinks MacDonald is going to show the flashes of brilliance he did against Condit and Penn and remind us all why he’s still an elite member of the division with plenty of years ahead of him. Rory might not send Maia into a full-on tailspin in the opening frame like Nate Marquardt did, but he’ll get the job done.

Make one wild prediction for the UFC 170 undercard.

JJ: All 6 fights go to decision, and all but 2 of them are completely forgotten about as soon as the judges scores are announced. I know, it’s not exactly a “wild” prediction given the past couple events, but when more people on the undercard *don’t* have a Wikipedia page than those who do, you can probably expect more of the same sloppy sparring matches we’ve been treated to in recent weeks.

SF: We’re talking about the undercard now? Take it away, Green Bastard…

My wild prediction is that someone might actually disagree with me. Someone who isn’t related to either fighter. Wild, huh?

UFC 170: Cormier vs. Cummins Round-by-Round Recap and Analysis

UFC 170 features one of the most highly anticipated squash matches in UFC history, as accomplished former heavyweight Daniel Cormier faces off with former coffee shop worker and (according to Wikipedia) Australian cricketer Patrick Cummins. 
While…

UFC 170 features one of the most highly anticipated squash matches in UFC history, as accomplished former heavyweight Daniel Cormier faces off with former coffee shop worker and (according to Wikipedia) Australian cricketer Patrick Cummins. 

While the “highly anticipated” part may sound sarcastic, Cummins has done wonderful work in terms of generating hype for this fight.

In reality, what we have here is a hastily made grudge match that, despite the comical betting line of minus-1300 versus plus-1050, is fairly interesting.

So how will things pan out between Cormier and Cummins? Will Cummins pull off one of the most shocking upsets in UFC history? Will Cormier finally look like a world-beater again?

Let’s find out!

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UFC 170: Keys to Victory for Ronda Rousey

Ronda Rousey sits on top of the women’s bantamweight mountain and will defend her championship at UFC 170 against Sara McMann on Saturday night.
McMann is a fellow undefeated fighter and Olympic medalist. However, their games are vastly…

Ronda Rousey sits on top of the women’s bantamweight mountain and will defend her championship at UFC 170 against Sara McMann on Saturday night.

McMann is a fellow undefeated fighter and Olympic medalist. However, their games are vastly different.

McMann won her silver medal at the 2004 Athens Games in wrestling. She is a strong woman who likes to take her opponent to the mat and employ classic ground-and-pound. She is also not afraid to have an old-fashioned brawl, even though her striking is not technically sound.

The champion enters as a significant favorite, but she will still need to walk into the cage and take care of business to retain her gold. Here are Rousey’s keys to victory at UFC 170.

 

Be Patient

There is no reason for Rousey to be aggressive in this fight.

The champion can pick her shots against McMann. Rousey will be the taller fighter and will have the reach advantage on the feet. This goes along her with being a better boxer than McMann. She does not need to be forced into a brawl.

She merely needs to wait for McMann to decide to shoot in for a takedown. If Rousey gets aggressive, the challenger will have more opportunities for a takedown. The more passive she is against McMann, the more easily she can defend the takedown.

 

Defend the Takedown

McMann can win this fight, but in order to do so, she will need to take Rousey to the mat.

The champion has been taken down before, but her superior grappling ability showed itself quickly against her other opponents. We don’t know how that will play out against another world-class grappler.

Rousey could do what she wanted against Tate because she was not a powerful wrestler. Rousey was the more physical and technical of the two.

McMann’s top game is stronger than Tate’s. She has a more compact base than Tate. However, she does not have the same technical submission defense ability that Tate does. She uses her brute strength to pull out of submissions, and that will not work against the champion.

The challenger must take Rousey down and grind on the champion to win. Rousey can make a victory much more difficult to come by for McMann by defending the takedown and staying on her feet.

 

Be Herself

Rousey simply needs to be herself.

She is the better striker, and she can win the clinch battles with her judo. There is no need to do uncharacteristic things inside the Octagon on Saturday night.

The challenger has to be the one who comes out of her shell in the main event.

The path to gold for McMann is narrow. Rousey merely needs to continue doing what she has always done, and she will take another dominant win as she defends her strap.

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UFC 170: Predicting Winners of Fight Night Bonuses

The new UFC Fight Night bonus structure is going to take a little getting used to. For those who aren’t aware, there are no more KO of the Night and Submission of the Night bonuses.
They have been replaced by more generic Performance of the Night bonus…

The new UFC Fight Night bonus structure is going to take a little getting used to. For those who aren’t aware, there are no more KO of the Night and Submission of the Night bonuses.

They have been replaced by more generic Performance of the Night bonuses. 

Looking ahead to UFC 170, one candidate has an opportunity to cash in monetarily and from more notoriety. Sara McMann has a chance to have a huge night.

Here’s the smartest prediction for Performance of the Night.

 

Performance of the Night 1

If you read my preview of the card, I’ve gone out on a limb and predicted McMann will upset Ronda Rousey. McMann’s wrestling background as an Olympic silver medalist makes her the first fighter who is capable of preventing Rousey from taking her down.

That’s the first step toward achieving the monumental upset.

McMann’s strength and sturdiness will present Rousey with a challenge she’s never faced before. Even though McMann won’t stop Rousey, she’ll beat her up and win a decision.

Knocking off Rousey is good enough for Performance of the Night no matter how it comes.

 

Performance of the Night 2

Daniel Cormier is matched with an inexperienced and overmatched replacement opponent named Patrick Cummins. As you can see from his tweet below, he was working in a coffee shop before he got the call to face Cormier.

It’s an awesome story, but Cormier is too skilled and experienced to fall asleep against the underdog.

He’s going to show the full complement of skills and score the rare submission victory as a way to show off.

 

Fight of the Night

Rousey vs. McMann is the choice here. Rousey is coming off a Fight of the Night performance against Miesha Tate. Both of her fights in the UFC have been thrilling affairs.

This one should be no different. Rousey’s competitiveness won’t allow her to give up, even though McMann will be a handful. Best UFC Odds seems to agree:

An Olympic medalist in wrestling, McMann will present a new challenge for Rousey – who has outclassed all of her opponents on the mat thus far. Expect to see a side of Rousey we have never seen before as she will look to display her vastly improved striking skills.

McMann’s skills will push Rousey, and the result will be the best fight of the night.

 

Follow me. I dig combat sports.

@BMaziqueFPBR

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UFC 170: Keys to Victory for Sara McMann

At UFC 170, mixed martial arts fighter Sara McMann will attempt to wrest away the bantamweight title from the biggest star the Ultimate Fighting Championship has ever acquired in Ronda Rousey.

Rousey is undefeated and has beaten opponent after opponen…

At UFC 170, mixed martial arts fighter Sara McMann will attempt to wrest away the bantamweight title from the biggest star the Ultimate Fighting Championship has ever acquired in Ronda Rousey.

Rousey is undefeated and has beaten opponent after opponent with her signature armbar. At 27 years old, the Olympic judo medalist is at the top of her game and plans on retiring as the UFC’s bantamweight champion. According to Eric Holden of Examiner.com, in a 2013 MMA Junkie post, Rousey stated, “I am the best [expletive] fighter in the world, and I truly believe that…”

However, on Saturday, at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Rousey will take on her greatest challenge yet in McMann. Rousey’s opponent at UFC 170 is an Olympic silver medalist herself. She is also undefeated at 7-0. Although a 10-1 underdog heading into her first championship bout, McMann’s world-class wrestling base, accompanied by Rousey’s suspect stand-up skills, may grant the North Carolina native her first world championship.

 

Wrestling

McMann’s elite wrestling game will more than likely come into play during her matchup against Rousey. Most of the 33-year-old’s wins have come by virtue of her ability to control her opponent on the ground. On Saturday, it would behoove McMann to place Rousey on her back and work from the champion’s guard. In this fashion, she could neutralize Rousey’s legs while implementing some ground and pound at the same time—grinding out the win, Georges St-Pierre style.

In fact, Ultimate Fighter 18 winner Julianna Pena believes that McMann’s chances of beating Rousey are high. According to Damon Martin of Fox Sports, the “Venezuelan Vixen” stated:

Wrestling beats Judo every single time. If there was a wrestler out there to do it, Sara McMann is the one to be able to put it into motion. She’s a silver medalist in the Olympics and she’s as good a wrestler as you’re going to get, and she’s as worthy a competitor and ready for this competition as anybody.  If anybody stands a chance at winning, it’s Sara McMann because of her wrestling background.

However, to implement her own game plan, McMann must first avoid being judo tossed to her back and submitted soon thereafter. The latter is easier said than done, as Rousey has literally built a career off manhandling her opponents and defeating them, usually within the first round.

 

Boxing

McMann may, in fact, attempt to implement a strategy that no other fighter has sought to execute—out strike the champion.

For one reason or another, many fighters have chosen to grapple with Rousey, which has led to their demise. In that, adopting a Lyoto Machida-esque, stick-and-move type style may throw the champion off her game. If McMann keeps herself elusive, this would force the fight to remain on its feet. A five-round slugfest would definitely represent an “out-of-the-box” matchup for Rousey, given her affinity for heavy grappling.

In addition, a stand-up battle would grant McMann the opportunity to test Rousey’s chin. The champion has rarely taken a clean shot to the face, due to her eagerness to grapple with her opponent. If McMann is able to avoid Rousey’s vicious judo takedowns and physically insist that the matchup remain standing, this would more than likely increase the challenger’s chances of securing the bantamweight title at UFC 170.

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