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UFC 148 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen The headliner for UFC 148 is one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. The first title fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen was a classic and the.

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

The headliner for UFC 148 is one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. The first title fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen was a classic and the storylines have only continued to grow since then. Sonnen has served as the provocateur for the rivalry between these two with his constant verbal attack through any media outlet that will broadcast or print his increasingly impressive arsenal of trash talk. Until recently, Silva has played the role of the professional fighter remaining calm and promising to do his talking in the octagon. But that changed in the last few weeks as Silva has either joined into to the promotion efforts or genuinely snapped after two years of listening to Chael’s undeniably creative ranting. Either way, the entertainment value leading up to this fight is the best since Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz set the standard for MMA rivalries.

When breaking down a rematch, the most important thing to look at is the first fight. The first fight between Sonnen and Silva was one of the greatest in UFC history and probably was the greatest come from behind victory in UFC history considering the stakes. It cannot be understated how significant Sonnen’s control of the fight was up until the moment Silva locked up the triangle that saved his belt late in the fifth round. Every round played out exactly the same with Sonnen aggressively closing the distance on Silva with punches and pushing him up against the cage before landing a takedown. I’m not often shocked by what I see in a fight but I will never forget having to admit to myself in about the third round that Chael Sonnen was outstriking Anderson Silva. Silva obviously has the advantage in technique and the margin is about equal to the length of the wall in China. But Sonnen was relentless and never gave Silva a chance to settle into a rhythm, which resulted in Silva maybe landing one or two off balance shots as Sonnen was rushing him and landing combinations. Sonnen then used that pressure to get Silva off balance and put him on his back. From there, Sonnen focused more on maintaining control rather than finishing and hammer fisted his way to an unquestionable four round to zero lead. The fifth round started exactly the same as the others. By this time, I was actually squatting on my haunches six inches in front of the TV because I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. And then, out of nowhere, Silva slipped his legs around Sonnen’s neck. Sonnen seemed caught off guard and failed to defend until it was too late. Even more surprisingly, he panic tapped almost immediately and never gave himself a chance to escape. He tapped like it was a training session. He seemed to suddenly realize that he was minutes away from the most important victory of his career and tried to pretend he didn’t tap but he had and in a span of about ten seconds, Anderson Silva went from a certain defeat to one of the most unbelievable victories in UFC history. If Silva was trying to crush Sonnen’s soul as pay back for all the trash talk, he couldn’t have come up with a better way to do it.

That leads us to this fight. Anderson Silva is a smart fighter and he trains at one of the best camps in the world. He will learn from his mistakes in the first fight. But Sonnen is also a smart fighter and he also trains at one of the best camps in the world. The pressure is on him to come up with a strategy that will be as successful as the one he employed in the first fight. If he employs the same strategy, he will likely find himself hurt by Silva’s pinpoint counterstriking ability, which he will have undoubtedly been honing in his camp for this fight. Sonnen’s aggression caught the champion by surprise in the first fight but he will be prepared for it this time. Sonnen will likely have to come up with a new way to set up his takedowns if he wants to achieve a similar level of success as he did in the first fight. And if he does, expect Silva to be more aggressive with submission attempts in the earlier rounds. Sonnen has been susceptible to triangles and armbars throughout his career and Silva has the jiu-jitsu skills to lock up Sonnen if he leaves an opening. But Sonnen should be drilling those fundamental defensive grappling skills hard in his camp so Silva may have to work harder if he wants to find that opening.

The odds on this fight currently have Silva favored at -290 with Sonnen the underdog at +240. Silva is clearly the favorite and the line is appropriate but the possibility exists that Sonnen’s skill set is the kryptonite for the middleweight champion. Most people thought Frankie Edgar’s split decision victory over BJ Penn was a fluke and that Penn would dominate in the rematch. It took ten full rounds for Edgar to convince the MMA world that he was better than the legend. That’s probably not an entirely fair analogy because Chael Sonnen is much more of a known entity now than Frankie Edgar was heading into his fights with BJ Penn. But the point remains that no one should be completely stunned if Sonnen is able to do exactly what he did in the first fight and then continue that for the three minutes it would have taken to earn a victory the first time around. He has proven that he can beat Anderson Silva and if he does, it can’t be considered a fluke. But the more likely outcome is that Silva harnesses all the energy and motivation he has displayed in the last week and releases it in one devastatingly accurate strike on Sonnen’s face. Either way, if this fight can find a way to live up to all of the hype, the MMA community will be in for an exciting and possible even historic night.

Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin

Fight fans love trilogies and as the warm up for the night’s main event, the UFC is giving us a third fight between veterans Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz. Realistically, this is probably not going to be a great fight. But this is the type of fight that makes enough sense from a historical perspective to outweigh what the actual quality of the fight might be. Both of these fighters have earned their place in the history of the UFC. Tito Ortiz is one of the original stars of MMA and has done as much to increase its popularity as any other individual fighter. Forrest Griffin took part in the critical mass moment for the UFC when he fought Stephan Bonnar on the original Ultimate Fighter finale. Both are former champions in the 205 pound division. They have fought each other twice before with each earning a split decision victory. Both men might retire after the fight. For all of those reasons, this fight makes sense and deserves second billing on a major card.

As far as the actual fight analysis, we’ve already seen this fight twice. Tito Ortiz is a solid wrestler whose striking and jiu-jitsu have improved greatly over the course of his career. His greatest asset has always been his ground and pound and he will look to utilize it in this fight. Forrest Griffin generally prefers to keep his fights standing but he too is capable on the ground. Expect to see all areas of the game explored in this fight. Expect to see both fighters on their backs at some point. Expect to see both fighters land strikes on the feet. Basically, expect more of what we saw in their first two fights. The fight will likely be decided by who can gain an advantage in where the fight takes place. If Ortiz can land enough takedowns and do some damage from top position, he’ll earn the victory. If Griffin can keep the fight standing, he will have the striking advantage and he’ll earn the victory. This is a classic “who can impose his will” type of situation.

Forrest Griffin comes into this fight as the significant favorite at -320 and Ortiz is the underdog at +260. Griffin deserves to be the favorite but I’m not sure why the line is so far in his favor. Ortiz is perfectly capable of winning this fight. These two men have fought a total of six rounds and three of those have been scored for Ortiz so he’s capable of taking two out of three on Saturday night. That said, Griffin should be able to use his defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing and strike his way to a decision victory. But if Ortiz can land his takedowns, the complexion of this fight will change drastically.

UFC 148 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote In a matchup clearly designed for entertainment, fan favorite Cung Le will face veteran Patrick Cote. Strikeforce tried to make Cung Le a superstar. They tried to sell his san.

Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote

In a matchup clearly designed for entertainment, fan favorite Cung Le will face veteran Patrick Cote. Strikeforce tried to make Cung Le a superstar. They tried to sell his san shou background and his wrestling background and his acting credentials. But the reality is that he’s a forty year old fighter with a 7-2 career record and no significant wins. He lost in his last fight against Wanderlei Silva, which proves he is not an elite fighter at middleweight. The UFC knew this when they brought him over from Strikeforce and they are using him to generate exciting fights against fighters who will be willing to stand with him. Enter Patrick Cote. Cote gets a chance to defeat a name fighter in his return to the octagon after being let go following three consecutive losses to Anderson Silva, Alan Belcher and Tom Lawlor. In hindsight, that release may have been premature given the emergence of Belcher.

This fight is not complicated to analyze. It will take place mostly on the feet. Le will employ all of the kicks and spinning techniques fans expect from him. He will use his wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing if Cote decides to strike. Le has the technical ability to keep Cote at a distance and outstrike him. He even has the power to finish the fight if he can land a clean combination. But Cote has never been finished via KO or TKO and I don’t expect Cung Le to do what Anderson Silva couldn’t. Cote will more than likely also want to keep the fight standing. He is a more traditional striker but that doesn’t make him any less of a threat. The power in his right hand is more dangerous than any single strike Cung Le possesses. He comes into this fight on a four fight winning streak outside of the UFC and he will be looking to use Cung Le as a step toward once again competing at the top of the middleweight division.

The oddsmakers currently have Cote favored at -245 with Le the underdog at +205. I’m not surprised to see Cote favored but I am slightly surprised at the margin. That said, Cote is the more experienced and probably more dangerous fighter. His striking is good enough to neutralize Le’s unorthodox style and earn the victory either via (T)KO or decision. If Le wants to earn the upset, he will need to utilize movement and keep Cote guessing and moving backward. Either way, this should be an entertaining fight between two dangerous strikers.

Dong Hyun Kim vs. Demian Maia

In a matchup of upper level middleweights, Dong Hyun Kim will face Demian Maia as both men look to move up the ranks at 185 pounds. Kim has won six of his seven fights in the UFC excluding his fight with Karo Parisyan that was ruled a no contest after Parisyan tested positive for PEDs. Maia has struggled recently losing two of his last three fights in the UFC.

Maia has been a fixture in the UFC middleweight division for years having risen as far as a title fight with Anderson Silva. He was outclassed badly in that fight and has been up and down since then with wins over Mario Miranda, Kendall Grove and Jorge Santiago and losses to Mark Munoz and Chris Weidman. He seems to struggle when he faces the higher level of competition with his most impressive wins coming against Chael Sonnen and Dan Miller. He still possesses some of the most dangerous jiu-jitsu in the world at any weight class but his opponents have been able to neutralize that by refusing to play the ground game with him. His standup has improved over the last few years but is not at a level where he can win a striking match against a top level fighter. He will likely struggle to get Kim to the ground in this match and will need to take advantage of any opportunity he gets to grapple. More than likely, most of this fight will take place on the feet and that does not bode well for Maia. His grappling is by far the most dangerous weapon either fighter brings to the cage but unless Kim allows him to utilize it, Maia will likely be stuck in another striking match.

Dong Hyun Kim has only one official loss on his professional record and that came against Carlos Condit who is one of the best middleweights in the world. That said, Kim has yet to earn a signature victory with his biggest win coming against Amir Sadollah. Maia represents an excellent opportunity to earn a victory over a well respected middleweight and take a step up in the division. Kim was a knockout artist in Korea but that has not translated over to his UFC career as he has won all of his fights by decision. His striking is solid but not excellent and he has the defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing. He obviously has the power to finish with his strikes but has not been able to show it thus far in the the UFC. A finish against Maia would be a major statement but a decision is much more likely. He will need to keep the fight standing because even though he is competent on the ground, no one is safe against Damien Maia and he would be foolish to play that game. If he follows the appropriate gameplan and keeps the fight standing, he is capable of outstriking Maia to earn the victory.

Kim comes into the fight as the favorite at -145 with Maia the underdog at +125. The line is appropriate and this fight seems to have a clear script. Maia is always a threat if the fight goes to ground but I see no reason why Kim would allow that to happen. If the fight stays on the feet, Kim will have the advantage and he should be able to land more cleanly on his way to a decision victory.

UFC on FX 3 Post-FIght Analysis

Demetrious Johnson put an end to the controversy on Saturday night by clearly winning two of the three rounds in his rematch with Ian McCall to determine who will face Joseph Benavidez to become the.

Demetrious Johnson put an end to the controversy on Saturday night by clearly winning two of the three rounds in his rematch with Ian McCall to determine who will face Joseph Benavidez to become the first UFC flyweight champion. Johnson established the pace in the first round much in the same way he did in the first fight. Just like in the first fight, the most significant moment of the first round was a right hand. But this time, the punch dropped McCall instead of just wobbling him. Johnson also controlled the wrestling in the first round scoring an early takedown and stuffing all of McCall’s attempts to bring the fight to the mat. McCall came back strong in the second round managing to complete several takedowns. And although he was unable to keep Johnson down, just the threat of the takedown was enough to change the tone of the fight in the striking game and McCall was able to land more significant strikes. One of the judges awarded that round to Johnson for some reason but both of the other judges scored it for McCall, which was the proper scoring. Going into the third round, the fight was even but Johnson left no room for dispute as he clearly controlled the striking and scored the only takedown of the round. He landed several combinations and McCall became visibly frustrated as the round continued. By the end of the round, the outcome was obvious and Johnson clearly established himself as the fighter who deserves to compete against Benavidez for the title. The two battles between Johnson and McCall have set a high level of expectation for the title fight and if the five rounds between Benavidez and Johnson are anything like the six rounds between McCall and Johnson, the MMA community is certainly in for a treat. For McCall, this loss is a setback but he is still obviously one of the the best 125 pound fighters in the world and more than likely, he will get his chance to fight for the belt at some point.

Earlier in the night, Erick Silva made it clear that he has to be considered a factor in the welterweight division as he proved to be too big and too explosive for Charlie Brenneman. Silva landed a knee early as Brenneman shot in for a takedown. Brenneman realized immediately the type of power he was facing and from that point on, he was desperate to get the fight to the mat. He succeeded several times but was unable to keep Silva down and his efforts always seemed to be delaying the inevitable. Silva stayed patient and waited for the right opportunity to explode on Brenneman. After the referee restarted the fight out of a stalemate against the fence, Silva landed a spinning back kick to the gut and followed it with another body kick. The kicks hurt Brenneman and he attempted a sloppy shot that resulted in him being turtled with Silva on his back. Silva slipped in his hooks and locked his arm under Brenneman’s neck with little resistance and earned the submission victory via rear naked choke. Silva never landed cleanly to Brenneman’s head but just the glancing blows and kicks to the body were enough to break Brenneman’s will. Silva will definitely face a stiff step up in competition in his next appearance and he has earned it with three first round finishes in his UFC career thus far. The only part of his game that hasn’t been tested is his cardio and it would be interesting to see what would happen if a stronger fighter employed Brenneman’s strategy and was able to draw Silva deeper into the fight. For right now, Silva is a fighter with a high ceiling and with the depth in the UFC welterweight division, we’ll soon find out how high that ceiling is.

In the second fight on the main card, Mike Pyle earned the most surprising result of the night. The win itself wasn’t a surprise but you could have won some serious money betting that he would finish the exceptionally durable Josh Neer with a first round one punch knockout. Pyle opened the fight exactly the way one would expect by taking Neer to the mat and trying to control him on the ground. And Neer responded by doing exactly what he always does in that position staying active with his guard and cutting Pyle with an elbow from his back. Neer managed to stand up and got after Pyle with his classic attack style of body punches, dirty boxing and standing elbows. Pyle seemed to be significantly hurt to the body as Neer pushed him back against the cage and looked for an opportunity to finish. In the middle of that assault, Pyle landed a clinical overhand right directly the jaw of Neer and knocked him out. Neer fell face down on the mat and Pyle walked away with one of the more impressive victories of his career. Pyle, now age thirty six, has won five out of six fights and while he’ll never be a championship contender, the UFC should be able to find him several more interesting fights. Neer will need to win in his next fight or he may once again find himself on the way out of the UFC, which is unfortunate because his fights are always entertaining.

Eddie Wineland opened the card by announcing that he is back as a serious contender in the bantamweight division. The defensive wrestling he worked so hard to perfect for his fights against Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez is now fully incorporated into his arsenal and with that accomplished, he was able to let his strikes flow freely just as he did earlier in his career. He came out aggressive from the opening bell against Scott Jorgensen and didn’t slow down until he finished the fight. He dropped Jorgensen in the first round with a counter jab establishing that he still has some of the best power in the division. He repeatedly stuffed his opponent’s takedown attempts as well and kept the fight in a standing position. Jorgensen was more competitive in the second round landing several good strikes and cutting Wineland in two places including a huge gash over the left eye. Wineland seemed initially distracted by the blood flowing into his eye but quickly adjusted and began to once again take the advantage in the striking game. He even managed to take down the former PAC-10 wrestling champion. The fight seemed to be turning into a classic three round brawl where both fighters would trade combinations but Wineland’s power proved to be too much for Jorgensen as he dropped him with a right hand and pounced to finish with ground and pound. The 135 pound title is currently tied up in an interim fight between Faber and Renan Barao and the winner of that fight will likely immediately face champion Dominic Cruz to unify the title. Possible opponents for Wineland after this victory could include Brian Bowles, Michael McDonald or Barao if he loses to Faber. For Jorgensen, this outcome definitely represents another step back. One interesting matchup for him going forward would be with Miguel Torres as both would be trying to rebound from recent losses. Whatever happens, this was a huge statement by Eddie Wineland.

TUF 15 Finale Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampann Both fighters in the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale’s main event are coming off of wins in their most recent bouts with Martin Kampmann currently on a two fight win streak.

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampann

Both fighters in the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale’s main event are coming off of wins in their most recent bouts with Martin Kampmann currently on a two fight win streak while while Jake Ellenberger is riding a six fight win streak after losing his opening appearance in the the UFC. The winner of this fight will establish himself as a title contender in the 170 lb division where Georges St. Pierre awaits interim champion Carlos Condit. Whoever earns the victory on Friday night should be no more than one fight away from a shot at the belt.

Kampmann pulled out a last minute submission via guillotine choke over Thiago Alves in his last appearance in the cage. The fight had been extremely competitive up to that point with Alves having a slight advantage on my scorecard in each of the first two rounds. The third round would have been close as well if not for Kampmann’s timely submission. In his recent fights, the “Hitman” has shown improved wrestling. He was able to avoid Rick Story’s takedowns for the most part at UFC 139 and when he did end up on the ground, he was able to get back to his feet quickly. He even managed to take Story down in that fight. Kampmann will once again be facing an opponent with a strong wrestling background in Ellenberger. I expect Kampann to use his newly improved wrestling to keep the fight standing and use his best weapon, which is his pinpoint Muay Thai striking, to outpoint Ellenberger on the feet. In order to accomplish that goal, Kampmann will need to utilize quick movement to stay away from Ellenberger’s power and land quick combinations. If he can time Ellenberger’s powerful right hand, he might be able to find the range for counter striking. But all of that will be difficult to accomplish against one of the toughest tests he has faced in his career thus far.

Jake Ellenberger is a world class athlete just now coming into the prime of his career at age twenty seven. He has everything a fighter needs to be title contender in the UFC. He has one punch KO power in both hands. He has a collegiate wrestling background. He trains with a great team. He has plenty of experience. Simply put, this is his moment. A win, especially an impressive one, would give put him right in the middle of the title picture that currently features St. Pierre and Condit as well as Johnny Hendricks after his recent defeat of Josh Koscheck. Ellenberger’s last loss came against Condit in 2009 via split decision and since then, he has reeled off six consecutive wins with his most recent coming against Diego Sanchez in February. Four of those wins came via (T)KO. He has scary power in his hands and over the past year or so, he has evolved from a wrestler with power into an impressively well-rounded mixed martial artist. A lot of fighters have power but Ellenberger has honed his stand-up to a degree where he now has the technical skill to consistently land his power shots. On Saturday, he will face one of the best strikers in the welterweight division. I expect him to stand with Kampmann initially and hope to land a power shot while avoiding his opponent’s combinations. If he begins to consistently lose the exchanges on the feet, look for him to go back to his wrestling and try to put Kampmann on his back. But that won’t be easy as Kampmann is difficult to take down and has an excellent submission game once the fight hits the mat.

Ellenberger is the clear favorite in this fight at -225 with Kampann coming in at +185. I expect this fight to take place mostly on the feet and in theory, that would favor Kampmann who is the more technical striker. The problem with that is that Ellenberger is also a good striker with the power to end the fight instantaneously. Clearly, the oddsmakers give the combination of Ellenberger’s power and his potential to take the fight to the ground and control from top position the advantage in this fight and a (T)KO finish for Ellenberger seems to be the most logical outcome for this fight. But if he can’t find Kampmann’s chin, the “Hitman” could pull off the upset by using his technical Muay Thai game to earn a decision.

By Alan Wells

TUF 15 Finale Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathan Brookins In a matchup of fighters trying to establish themselves in the 145 pound division, former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins returns to the octagon to face Brazilian prodigy Charles Oliveira..

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathan Brookins

In a matchup of fighters trying to establish themselves in the 145 pound division, former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins returns to the octagon to face Brazilian prodigy Charles Oliveira. Both fighters are coming off of rebound victories in their previous appearance with Brookins defeating Vagner Rocha in February and Oliveira defeating Eric Wisely in January.

Brookins is a well rounded fighter who has shown the ability to finish with both strikes and submissions. He seems to lull opponents to sleep with his calm approach and unassuming personality. I would imagine fighters have a difficult time working up any animosity against Brookins who is one of the more humble and peaceful competitors in the UFC. But despite his personality, he has finishing instincts as he showed in his previous fight when he took out Rocha with ground and pound in the first round. Brookins seems to be confident wherever the fight goes so I expect him to stand with Oliveira until he feels threatened. If he starts to lose in the standup game, look for him to try to push Oliveira against the fence and turn the fight into a dirtier game of clinch work and scrambles. Oliveira appears to be the more talented fighter but that hasn’t stopped Brookins in the past and look for him to do whatever he can to take his young opponent out of his gameplan.

Oliveira is one of the most exciting young fighters in the UFC. He burst on to the scene at age 20 with an explosive armbar submission victory over Darren Elkins. After another victory, he lost two out of three fights against title caliber fighters Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone with a no decision against Nik Lentz due to an illegal knee sandwiched in between. I question why the UFC was putting him against that type of competition at age twenty one but it may turn out to be for the best as he has decided to move down to the featherweight division and was dominant in his first fight at that weight against Wisely. He made quick work of his overmatched opponent with a ridiculous calf slicer that most fight fans including myself had never seen used to finish a fight. This fight represents an appropriate step up in competition. He should have the advantage over Brookins wherever the fight goes but he will need to stay tight with his technique to earn the victory. Look for Oliveira to utilize his excellent striking game while being perfectly willing to display his grappling gift should Brookins decide to take the fight in that direction. Either way, Oliveira has the potential to give the fans an explosive finish.

Oliveira is a solid favorite at -200 with Brookins the underdog at +170. Oliveira has the talent advantage everywhere in this fight and I’m actually surprised the line isn’t a little more one-sided but I don’t blame the bookmakers for being wary of underestimating Brookins who has a habit of upsetting more talented opponents. Oliveira should have opportunities early against Brookins but if he doesn’t take advantage or if he gets sloppy or overconfident, Brookins can steal this fight. A longer fight benefits Brookins and if he can turn this into an ugly scrap with lots of close fighting against the cage, he might be able to grind his way to a decision.

By Alan Wells

UFC 146 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson.

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson has lost three out of his last four with two of those losses coming to the fighters competing for the championship in the night’s headliner. Herman has split his two UFC fights with his loss coming to Stefan Struve, who is also competing on Saturday night’s card.

Nelson’s last several fights have mainly taken place on the feet and his main accomplishment has been proving that he is almost impossible to knock out. He took punches from Junior Dos Santos that no one else has been able to absorb. But a good chin isn’t enough to win fights and losing three out of four isn’t the way to stay in the UFC. Nelson will be fighting for his UFC life on Saturday night and fortunately for him, he will be facing a fighter he is capable of defeating. Expect Nelson to attempt to show the full range of his game on Saturday night as he should have the advantage wherever the fight takes place. Herman will have the height advantage but that’s nothing new for Nelson who will close the distance and throw power punches. Once on the inside, Nelson should look to put Herman on his back and work his submission game. Nelson is excellent from the top position and has the skill set to finish this fight early.

Herman will be looking to improve on his previous performance when he was stopped by Stefan Struve after an uninspiring eight minutes in the octagon. He looked sluggish against Struve and spent most of the fight standing still in front of his opponent eventually paying for his lack of movement by being dropped with an uppercut and finished with ground and pound. Herman is a much better fighter than he showed that night and he should be looking to prove that against Nelson. A win against Nelson would put him back on the right track while a loss would set him back significantly. He will look to keep the fight standing as he won’t want to grapple with his more accomplished opponent. Look for him to use his reach advantage and keep Nelson on the outside with jabs and kicks. If Nelson looks to close the distance, expect Herman to clinch and use his knees. The task is a difficult one but if Herman is focused, he can pull off the upset.

Nelson is favored in this fight at -225 with Herman the underdog at +185. Nelson should be able to pull out a win by outstriking Herman, putting him on his back and looking for submissions. Herman’s best hope is to keep Nelson on the outside and pick him apart with strikes. Unfortunately for Herman, Nelson is almost impossible to knock out so if he wants a victory, he’s going to have to earn it by winning a decision.

Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic

In a battle of undefeated heavyweights, former Strikeforce fighter Shane Del Rosario makes his UFC debut against Stipe Miocic who has two wins in the UFC over Joey Beltran and Philip De Fries. Despite being undefeated thus far in their careers, neither fighter has looked overwhelmingly impressive and this fight will be the biggest test either has faced.

Del Rosario won all three of his Strikeforce fights on Challengers cards over Brandon Cash, Lolohea Mahe and Lavar Johnson. He finished all three fights in the first round showing the ability to close with either strikes or submissions. None of those fighters presented a well rounded game to compete with Del Rosario’s skill set and against Miocic, he’ll be facing a more complete fighter. Miocic showed showed powerful if not technically perfect hands in his previous fight against Philip De Fries. Look for Del Rosario to start by striking with Miocic and try to take advantage of the openings he showed in that fight. But as soon as he feels threatened, expect Rosario to try to get the fight to the ground and work his submission game from the top position.

Miocic will more than likely look to keep the fight on the feet and rely on his boxing to try to earn the victory. Lavar Johnson had Del Rosario in trouble and while Miocic might not have the raw power that Johnson has, he’s more technical and could use that accuracy to finish the fight if he gets an opportunity. He will need to use his wrestling defensively in this fight to keep the fight standing. If he can use leg kicks to slow Rosario and then attack with punches, he’ll have a chance at pulling off the upset.

Del Rosario comes into this fight as the favorite at -200 with Miocic getting +170. Look for Del Rosario to strike early and use the clinch to get Miocic to the ground. Once there, he will attempt to create openings with ground and pound to attack with submissions. Miocic will be looking to do the opposite and keep the fight standing to utilize his boxing. Del Rosario should have the superior all around game and earn the victory but if he gets sloppy on his feet, Miocic could take advantage and steal the win.

Lavar Johnson vs. Stefan Struve

Saturday night’s opening fight will feature a fight that is almost guaranteed not to make it out of the first round as Lavar Johnson’s faces Stefan Struve. This is the type of fight that makes fans wonder if UFC matchmaker Joe Silva is laughing maniacally in a dark office somewhere at the potential train wreck he has set in motion. Struve has shown a propensity to leave his notoriously weak chin up in the air and Johnson has some of the most powerful punches in the division. If Johnson’s fists touch Struve’s chin, this fight will be over.

Struve is one of the most interesting fighters in the heavyweight division. At 6’11,” he is the tallest legitimate fighter in the world and he uses that height to his advantage by kicking his opponents from distances where they can’t even come close to reaching him. He has shown knockout power in his strikes and has an excellent Dutch muay thai game that he has used to finish several UFC fights. He also uses his long legs to his advantage on the ground where he can latch on to chokes from positions where fighters aren’t used to having to defend against them. His height combined with his technique provides a unique challenge for every opponent he face. His one major weakness thus far in his career has been his chin. Once fighters get inside his outrageous reach, they have been able to consistently drop him with punches. To Struve’s credit, he has survived several knockdowns and fought back to earn victories but that will not be a likely outcome on Saturday night. If he wants to defeat Johnson, he needs to avoid the striking game and get this fight to the mat quickly where he has a significant advantage. If he can do that, he should be able to finish with a submission shortly thereafter.

Lavar Johnson has scary power in his hands. He has finished his last two opponents with punches and if Struve decides to engage in a striking match, he will likely face the same fate. Johnson will look to force the issue and go after Struve early in this fight. He has a limited ground game and he will be in trouble if he finds himself grappling with Struve. Expect Johnson to be swinging for Struve’s chin from the opening bell and even if he grazes it, that could be enough to finish the fight. His goal will be to control the octagon and push Struve against the cage where he can use uppercuts and short hooks to drop his opponent and finish the fight.

The bookmakers have this fight at almost a pick ‘em with Struve favored at -125 and Johnson the “underdog” at +105. That’s exactly where the line should be because if Johnson lands a punch, the fight could be over in an instant but if Struve can get the fight to the ground, it could end just as quickly. This fight lends itself to an early finish and both fighters have a distinct route to earning the victory. The outcome will depend on whether Struve can get the fight to the ground before Johnson lands a punch.