Tag: UFC betting

UFC Lightweight Bout:  Jim Miller vs. Joe Lauzon

Odds:  ( -230Miller /+180 Lauzon )

Betting Pick:  Miller

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In the semi-main event of UFC 155, two of the UFC’s most prolific Lightweight grapplers will square off as Jim Miller faces Joe Lauzon. These guys have been staples at the top of the UFC Lightweight division for a few years now, and both of them are prolific submission fighters with the ability to end fights from a variety of positions. This is an interesting matchup in that both guys have similar styles and strengths, so something minor could wind up being the determining factor here.

Jim Miller, one half of the fighting Miller brothers, is a prolific grappler with decent striking and solid wrestling. While he has dropped two of his last three fights, he has won eight of his last ten against excellent competition, so his spot at the top of the card is well-deserved. One of the things that makes Miller so exciting to watch is that, unlike many grapplers, he has a very aggressive style and is not afraid to push the pace of his fights to set up his submissions.

Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon is also an extremely talented submission finisher. He is dangerous from any position on the ground and has decent boxing to go along with his ground game. While he is not as physical as Miller, he is probably a superior grappler from a technical standpoint. The key for Lauzon is going to be getting this fight to the ground in advantageous positions. As good as he is off his back, it’s going to be difficult for him to work underneath a grappler of Miller’s caliber successfully.

Basically, this fight is going to come down to which guy can score more points on the feet and which of them ends up in the advantageous position on the ground. In both of those scenarios, I think the edge goes to Jim Miller. He’s a slightly more assertive boxer and definitely a superior wrestler. I think he should earn an edge with his boxing and, when the fight goes to the ground, Miller will be the one controlling pace and position. Miller by unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Jim Miller by Decision.

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UFC Middleweight Bout:  Hector Lombard vs. Rousimar Palhares

Odds:  (-210 Lombard /+170 Palhares )

Betting Pick:  Lombard

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In the semi-main event of UFC on FX 6, leglock king Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares will square off against Cuban wrecking machine Hector Lombard in a Middleweight showdown. Lombard was one of the most highly-regarded Middleweights outside of the UFC for years, but he fizzled in his UFC debut against Tim Boetsch. This is his chance to live up to some of the hype he brought into the Octagon with him, but Palhares’s leglocks are the stuff nightmares are made of, so he is going to have his hands full if he wants to avoid two losses in a row to start his UFC career.

Hector Lombard, a former Olympic judoka, was considered the best Middleweight in the world outside of the UFC before his disappointing Octagon debut against Tim Boetsch. Despite his poor showing in that fight, though, Lombard’s resume is hard to argue with. He has solid takedowns and a decent ground game, but his best weapon is definitely his vicious power punching. Lombard throws with dangerous intentions, and if he lands a power punch there are very few fighters in the world who can handle it. There is no question that he is a better striker than Palhares in terms of both technique and punching power. His goal in this fight has to be to keep Palhares from taking him down or pulling guard. On the feet this fight will be a slaughter, but if Palhares can force it to the ground, Lombard might find himself in a lot of trouble trying to defend against leglocks.

Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares is a force of nature on the mat. His standup is rudimentary at best, and he isn’t the best wrestler in the division by any means, but he attacks the legs of his opponents with reckless abandon and has no equal when it comes to leglock and ankle lock submissions. It is imperative for Palhares to force this fight to the ground as soon as possible, because if he has to box with Lombard for an extended period he is going to get his head knocked off. On the mat, Palhares is on a completely different level from Lombard, and should be able to submit him if this one plays out on the ground for an extended period.

Basically, this fight comes down to whether or not Palhares can force a ground fight. If he can effectively pull guard or take Lombard down, I don’t think he will have much trouble finding an opening for a submission. If he can’t, Lombard is going to put him to sleep with power punches. In the end, I think Lombard’s defensive wrestling and physical strength will be his biggest advantages. I think he should be able to hold Palhares off effectively, force a boxing match, and eventually catch Palhares for a T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Hector Lombard by second round T/KO.

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UFC Welterweight Bout:  BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald

Odds:  ( +225 Penn / -285 MacDonald )

Betting Pick:  Penn

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In a featured Welterweight matchup, former UFC Lightweight and Welterweight champion BJ “The Prodigy” Penn will square off against Tristar Gym prospect Rory “Ares” MacDonald. Penn has long been recognized as one of the sport’s most technically gifted fighters, but questions about his motivation and conditioning have followed him for years. For this fight, though, he appears in far better shape than he has ever been at Welterweight and seems determined to cement his legacy as one of the greatest of all time. MacDonald, for his part, is already drawing comparisons to his Tristar Gym teammate Georges St. Pierre and is being pegged as a future Welterweight champion. This fight should go a long way toward determining whether Penn still has some of the skills that made him one of the best in the world or whether MacDonald is actually read for a shot at the top of the division.

Rory “Ares” MacDonald is, without a doubt, one of the most exciting young prospects in the UFC Welterweight division. Already one of the most versatile fighters in the Welterweight division, MacDonald has a devastating blend of striking, wrestling, and submissions reminiscent of St. Pierre before the Serra loss. In his only trip to the top of the division, he suffered his sole career loss against Carlos Condit in a fight he was seconds from winning. Since then, though, he has put together another impressive win streak and doesn’t appear to have many holes in his game. One big advantage he will have in this fight is size. Penn might weigh in around 170, but he will do it without cutting any weight. On fight night, MacDonald will easily outweigh Penn by 15 pounds or more. St. Pierre already showed that putting Penn on his back and smothering him with superior size is an effective technique, and MacDonald has the bulk to pull it off.

BJ “The Prodigy” Penn is one of only two men two hold UFC titles in two different weight classes, the other being former Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight champion Randy “The Natural” Couture. Penn is one of the most naturally gifted fighters in the sport’s young history, but his career has been filled with disappointments, generally due to a lack of motivation and proper conditioning. Even so, it is hard to deny that Penn is one of the most technical and effective boxers in Mixed Martial Arts or that his takedown defense is the stuff of legend. Penn has pinpoint accurate punching and very fast hands. He is also an extremely accomplished submission fighter, but he tends to rely on his superb takedown defense and boxing to overwhelm his opponents. Against MacDonald, he will be the superior technical striker but he will also be the substantially smaller fighter, so he is going to have to rely on his speed and natural takedown defense to avoid getting taken down and smothered.

This is a tough fight to call. Penn is clearly the more experienced of the two, but he will be giving up a huge amount of weight come fight night. I think this one is going to come down to how well MacDonald can use his size advantage to put BJ on the mat. GSP already showed a blueprint for beating Penn, but taking Penn down and holding him there without getting submitted is a lot easier said than done. In the end, I think Penn’s freakish ability to avoid takedowns is going to be his saving grace. In a three round fight, the likelihood of him running out of gas is much lower, and I think he should be able to outbox MacDonald handily en route to a unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  BJ Penn by Unaninous Decision.

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UFC Lightweight Title Bout:  Ben Henderson vs. Nate Diaz

Odds:  ( -165 Henderson / +135 Diaz )

Betting Pick:  Bendo

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In the main event of UFC on FOX 5, UFC Lightweight champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson will defend his title against top contender Nate Diaz. Henderson is coming off back-to-back wins agaisnt former champion Frankie Edgar and has been on a tear since coming to UFC from WEC, but Diaz represents an entirely new sort of challenge. Henderson is one of the most versatile and athletic fighters in the UFC Lightweight division, but Diaz’s high-volume and unorthodox striking is tough for opponents to figure out and he is one of the most prolific submission grapplers in the division. If Henderson wants to keep his title he is going to have to find a way to deal with Diaz’s striking and figure out how to control him on the ground without getting submitted, which is a tall order.

Nate Diaz is one of the Lightweight division’s toughest fighters to figure out. Like his brother Nick, he has very unorthodox striking that comes at opponents from odd angles and punishes them more with volume than with the power on any individual punch. His ground game is spectacular, and he has submissions from every position. One of Diaz’s best attributes is his ability to get in his opponents heads and throw them off their game with trash talk and mind games. If there is one hole in Diaz’s game it is his wrestling, which is not great, although he does have very good judo-style throws from the clinch. The only things that have traditionally held Diaz back are his subpar wrestling and the fact that that he is not a physically imposing fighter and has a tendency to get outmuscled by some of his opponents.

Benson “Smooth” Henderson earned the UFC Lightweight title by defeating former champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar twice, although the second win came in extremely controversial fashion. Henderson is a very dominant fighter with a versatile offensive skillset who can get the job done with striking, wrestling, and submissions. His striking is the weakest part of his game but it is still very effective. The biggest advantage Henderson has in this fight is his wrestling, which should enable him to neutralize Diaz’s effective striking. If Henderson can avoid being submitted from top position, he will be in a great position to hold Diaz down and grind out a decision over five rounds.

This is a very tough fight to call because both guys have so many ways they can end fights. In the end, I think this going to come down to how effectively Henderson can secure takedowns and how safely he can work from top position. Diaz is arguably the best fighter off his back in the Lightweight division, and in a boxing match I think he will consistently outland Henderson and keep him on the defensive. In the end, though, I think Diaz’s lack of wrestling and physicality will really hurt him and allow Henderson to secure takedowns and earn points. Diaz will get his shots in, but his inability to land single knockout punches will prove his undoing. I see Henderson earning a narrow decision victory on the strength of his takedowns and top control.

Prediction:  Ben Henderson by Decision.

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