Tag: UFC gambling advice

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 184: Rousey vs. Zingano’ Edition


(Easy there, Dave. One second it’s doing your job, the next it’s a lawsuit. via Getty)

By Sam Stilson

Well if we learned anything from UFC Fight Night 61, it’s that MMA is perhaps the most unpredictable sport in the world. That, and Bigfoot Silva is slowing shrinking and will soon be nothing but an Easter Island statue made of glass.

The fact that 10 of 11 underdogs won last week has surely given some hope to the massive long shots featured in both the main and co-main events of this weekend’s UFC 184 card. But confidence is hardly enough when facing the best of the best in the women’s division (though this guy might disagree).

Let’s take a look at who the money-makers are for UFC 184.


(Easy there, Dave. One second it’s doing your job, the next it’s a lawsuit. via Getty)

By Sam Stilson

Well if we learned anything from UFC Fight Night 61, it’s that MMA is perhaps the most unpredictable sport in the world. That, and Bigfoot Silva is slowing shrinking and will soon be nothing but an Easter Island statue made of glass.

The fact that 10 of 11 underdogs won last week has surely given some hope to the massive long shots featured in both the main and co-main events of this weekend’s UFC 184 card. But confidence is hardly enough when facing the best of the best in the women’s division (though this guy might disagree).

Let’s take a look at who the money-makers are for UFC 184.

The Sure Bets

Jake Ellenberger over Josh Koscheck at -210

Both men have not looked particularly dangerous as of late and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the loser get cut. That being said, this fight can be summed up like so: Koscheck no longer has a chin + Ellenberger hits really hard = Easy money.

James Krause over Valmir Lazaro at -185

Krause is a tall, long fighter with decent kickboxing who has only really lost to top-shelf competition (lately anyway). Lazaro hits hard and certainly isn’t an easy opponent, but he just lost a fight to James Vick,  who is cut from the same cloth as Krause. This bout will likely go down the same way.

The Live Dogs

Gleison Tibau over Tony Ferguson at +170

Don’t get me wrong, “El Cucuy” has looked awesome lately; his striking is getting really crisp and he’s continuing to develop his natural power. But Tibau as an underdog is hard to turn down. Gleison only loses to top 10 fighters, so this bout will say a lot about Ferguson’s potential. A slow grinding win for Gleison is enough of a possibility to lay some coin down on this one.

Roman Salazar over Norifumi Yamamoto at +250

Salazar is probably going to take this one. Not because he’s some blue-chip prospect, but because Kid Yamamoto is a shot fighter. He’s 37, he hasn’t looked good in six years and is coming off a three-year layoff plus a slew of injuries. The guy lost to Vaughan Lee, so a Salazar upset isn’t just a good bet. At this point it’s expected.

The Toss-Up

Dhiego Lima (EVEN) vs. Tim Means (-130)

This should be a barnburner, and with the odds this close a bet on either man is a good idea. Means is the more ruthless aggressive fighter whereas Lima takes a bit more of a calculated approach. Both have impressive Muay Thai games, but with Lima getting bombed out early by Eddie Gordon, the odds leaning in Means favour is accurate.

All odds provided by Bodog.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 183 Edition

(Silva hilariously reacts to the news that Diaz has missed his open workouts, via ZombieProphet.)

Can we level with you for a second, Nation? Last week, we dropped a ridiculous amount of money on a Krylov + Sicilia + Bader + Lusty Gusty parlay. Three quarters of the way through it, we felt like the precogs in Minority Report, and were already buying up rounds at the bar for complete strangers. “As soon as Gustafsson levels Rumble, free Patron for everyone!” we shouted to a chorus of cheers and back pats. The air of confidence surging through us was addictive, to the point that we even asked our high school crush, Jenny Bracegirdle, out on a date. Just coffee, but still, we were feeling it.

And then, the rug was swept out from under us, as it so often is. We mean literally. We couldn’t pay our tab, and the bouncers wrapped us in a rug and heaved us into a dumpster. Needless to say, Jenny Bracegirdle has yet to return our calls.

The point is, we could use a little extra cash this weekend, and we’re sure you could as well. Which is why we brought back our gambling expert, Dan George, to break out an old favorite and potentially save us from yet another weekend spent nursing our fractured egos (also, wrists). So join us after the jump for the return of the Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 183 Edition.


(Silva hilariously reacts to the news that Diaz has missed his open workouts, via ZombieProphet.)

Can we level with you for a second, Nation? Last week, we dropped a ridiculous amount of money on a Krylov + Sicilia + Bader + Lusty Gusty parlay. Three quarters of the way through it, we felt like the precogs in Minority Report, and were already buying up rounds at the bar for complete strangers. “As soon as Gustafsson levels Rumble, free Patron for everyone!” we shouted to a chorus of cheers and back pats. The air of confidence surging through us was addictive, to the point that we even asked our high school crush, Jenny Bracegirdle, out on a date. Just coffee, but still, we were feeling it.

And then, the rug was swept out from under us, as it so often is. We mean literally. We couldn’t pay our tab, and the bouncers wrapped us in a rug and heaved us into a dumpster. Needless to say, Jenny Bracegirdle has yet to return our calls.

The point is, we could use a little extra cash this weekend, and we’re sure you could as well. Which is why we brought back our gambling expert, Dan George, to break out an old favorite and potentially save us from yet another weekend spent nursing our fractured egos (also, wrists). So join us after the jump for the return of the Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 183 Edition.

Stay the Hell Away From

Tom Watson (+155) vs. Rafael Natal (-175)

Both fighters here are sporting a 1-2 record over their past three contests, and both have a propensity to go the distance inside the octagon. Watson and Natal also seem to share a similar fighting style, preferring (somewhat unpolished) striking to the grappling game, which could sabotage the alluring -130 prop bet that this fight goes the distance. Save the stress and cash for later on in the evening.

Tyron Woodley (even) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-120)

The odds alone make a strong case to simply sit back and enjoy what is sure to be a very close fight. Gastelum is most likely the razor thin favorite due to his impressive submission win over Jake Ellenberger just 2 months ago, coupled with his perfect 10-0 record. Woodley, however, will possess the experience advantage in this fight and will really be the one answering the questions as to whether or not he “chokes in big fights” — Dana White, ever the honest abe-hole.

If Woodley has not learned how to stay off the fence since his fights with Jake Shields and Nate Marquardt or how to close the distance since his bout with Rory MacDonald, than we may see Woodley once again be relegated to bridesmaid status on Saturday night. Both men have KO power, strong wrestling backgrounds, and are accustomed to imposing their will on their opponents, which makes this one simply too close to call.

The Good Dogs

Jim Hettes (+150) vs. Diego Brandao (-170)

Diego Brandao is coming off back to back losses to Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor, which may not necessarily mean that he is fighting for his job, but surely will be looking to right the ship at 145lbs to avoid going 0-3. With his grappling background and solid ground game, Hettes has a good chance to re-create the similar environment that Darren Elkins was able to thrive in against Brandao — one which chewed up the clock and limited Diego’s ability to create space and earn points on the cards. Look for the Sworysville, Pennsylvania native to use his slight size advantage in this fight to blanket Diego en route to a decision victory. It might not be pretty, but all those extra bills in your wallet sure will be.

Thiago Alves (+120) vs Jordan Mein (-140)

It may be going on 6 years now since Alves was a title contender, but he has to be the most alluring underdog on the main card here, based solely on the likelihood that this fight stays on the feet. Jordan Mein will not be looking for takedowns and may gain a false sense of security in his striking game against the ultra technical Alves, who likely holds an advantage in the counter striking department. Look for Alves to establish his patented (not to mention, vicious) leg kicks early on and mix in straight punches behind them to potentially catch Mein and pull off the upset.

Meisha Tate (+175) vs. Sarah McMann (-210)

Perhaps the sexiest underdog pick on the card and not only for obvious reasons, Meisha is a fine option when looking at the probability that McMann will be looking to get this fight to the ground early. Meisha is ever-improving, and look no further than the cerebral striking clinic she put on against Rin Nakai in the early rounds of their fight at Fight Night 52. Tate has fought consistently strong competition and only lost to the very best over the past 5 years, while McMann seems to be dominant over the lower-tiered ladies at 135lbs. This will be McMann’s second toughest test next to Rousey and may highlight McMann’s less evolved overall MMA skills if Meisha is able to avoid being taken down and keep McMann at a distance.

Joe Lauzon (+165) vs. Al Iaquinta (-190)

If you like Joe Lauzon here, chances are you are banking on his potential to submit Iaquinta, much like Mitch Clarke was able to do when he scored a massive upset over the heavy handed Serra Longo standout. Lauzon has a shot to pull off the upset here if he is able to avoid getting clipped by Iaquinta during his trademark blitz to begin the fight. Iaquinta may have looked outstanding against Pearson in his last outing, but Pearson never really threatened the takedown and left Al free to bear down and throw power shots. If Joe can mix it up and keep Al guessing, he should be able to land a takedown or two, wear Iaqunita out, and possibly catch him in a late submission.

(Ed note: In my completely unbiased opinion, my boy Joey Lauz is going to MURK THE SHIT OUT OF YOU, IAQUINTA. WOOO!!!!)

Other Main Card Bouts

Thales Leites (-475) vs Tim Boetsch (+380)

The only reason “The Barbarian” does not make the “good dogs” section is because Leites seems to have improved his striking to the point that he may be able to close the distance on Boetsch and get the fight on the ground before Tim has a chance to counter. Boetsch excels when he is able to brawl with his opponents, and while Leites is coming off back-to-back KO victories, he will surely not be looking to exchange with Boetsch if he can get this fight to the ground. This is supported by the inflated -475 line in favor of Thales.

Anderson Silva (-470) vs. Nick Diaz (+375)

We have all read about the props for the upcoming superbowl, but just imagine the fun the bookies could have had with props on Nick Diaz leading up to and during Saturday’s fight. Will Nick miss his flight to Las Vegas? Will Nick miss the open workouts? Will Nick land a Stockton slap during the fight? The possibilities are endless and probably more interesting than picking a winner between Silva and Diaz.

It is undeniable that this fight is interesting and worthy of being a main event, but the prospect that Nick most likely won’t “survive this shit” is slowly starting to become more prevalent as you read the headlines in advance of the weigh-ins. Whether or not Diaz is just showing up to collect a big payday or not, he is a proud fighter who has never been stopped inside the Octagon and will probably do better than most believe. He might just have an edge on the ground as well, but the open stance and looping punches he often resorts to simply offer too many openings for the Spider. Silva should be able to use this fight for what many believe it was made for, a tune up/showcase to prove he can still be a viable contender for a title shot in the immediate future.
A -150 prop bet that Anderson wins inside the distance is your best bet, as Nick is hittable and that’s really all it takes. While he probably won’t get knocked out cold, Diaz may have to cover up until the referee steps in to call the fight off.

Parlay 1

McCall+Hettes

Parlay 2

Silva+Tate

Props

-Silva inside the distance

-Tate vs McMann goes the distance

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler’ Edition

By Dan George

Someone is getting put to sleep at UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler this weekend. It’s a fact. With 26 knockouts between the main eventers alone, I will reiterate: Peoples is getting put to sleep at UFC 171. And for the first time since UFC 168, those peoples won’t be the audience (*swishes three-pointer*)

Aside from providing some prime opportunities for fans to witness a highlight reel knockout, UFC 171 is also a gambler’s paradise, so join us after the jump for a look at all the UFC 171 betting lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and our time-tested advice.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Raquel Pennington (+220) vs. Jessica Andrade (-280)

Andrade as a -280 with a loss to Liz Carmouche and a decision win against 36 year old veteran Rosi Sexton inside the Octagon is rather steep. Jessica may be the better fighter on paper, but it is hard to gauge the improvements made by Raquel since her decision victory over Roxanne Modafferi. Dana had implored Raquel to “let your hands go” during the TUF 18 season, seemingly underlining unrealised potential in the 25 year old Colorado Springs native. Will Raquel come out striking and use her size advantage to control Jessica, or will Andrade find a way to push the ground attack and control the fight on the mat? Too hard to tell from here, best to pass over and simply enjoy.

By Dan George

Someone is getting put to sleep at UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler this weekend. It’s a fact. With 26 knockouts between the main eventers alone, I will reiterate: Peoples is getting put to sleep at UFC 171. And for the first time since UFC 168, those peoples won’t be the audience (*swishes three-pointer*)

Aside from providing some prime opportunities for fans to witness a highlight reel knockout, UFC 171 is also a gambler’s paradise, so join us after the jump for a look at all the UFC 171 betting lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and our time-tested advice.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Raquel Pennington (+220) vs. Jessica Andrade (-280)

Andrade as a -280 favorite with a loss to Liz Carmouche and a decision win against 36 year old veteran Rosi Sexton inside the Octagon is rather steep. Jessica may be the better fighter on paper, but it is hard to gauge the improvements made by Raquel since her decision victory over Roxanne Modafferi. Dana had implored Raquel to “let your hands go” during the TUF 18 season, seemingly underlining unrealised potential in the 25 year old Colorado Springs native. Will Raquel come out striking and use her size advantage to control Jessica, or will Andrade find a way to push the ground attack and control the fight on the mat? Too hard to tell from here, best to pass over and simply enjoy.

The Good Dogs:

Dennis Bermudez (-225) vs. Jimy Hettes (+175)

In his last three outings, Bermudez has won via back-to-back split decisions and a unanimous decision, respectively, yet still comes in as a better than 2 to 1 favorite to walk away with a win against grappling ace Jimy Hettes. Looking at the three straight first round losses via submission on Bermudez’s record, coupled with Jimy’s 10 submission victories in 12 career fights, the scales begin to lead towards an upset victory for Hettes. Bermudez holds a decided striking advantage and most likely will try to keep this fight standing, but as seen in the past, Bermudez may over commit and follow the fight to the ground where he falls into Jimy’s wheelhouse.

On the side of Hettes, if he can emulate his fight with Nam Phan and stick to Bermudez, there is a great chance that as the fight goes on Hettes finds a way to either submit Dennis or steal enough rounds to pull off a decision victory here.

Hector Lombard (-220) vs. Jake Shields (+180)

This will be Jake’s third consecutive outing as the underdog and for the third straight time he will look to reward those who believe he can pull off the upset win. Lombard is most likely being looked at through the Jake Ellenberger lens, meaning he is favored to stop Shields takedowns early and use his decided striking advantage to put the former Strikeforce champion away. While Lombard has returned to welterweight and still has plenty of punching power, what is less clear is whether or not he still has sufficient strength in the grappling department to deal with a guy like Shields if the fight does go to the ground.

Demian Maia found out the hard way that Shields has an incredible ground game and in the event this fight does go to the ground, this is where Jake can cash big.

Myles Jury (-185) vs. Diego Sanchez (+160)

Too hard to pass over Sanchez as an underdog against a rising undefeated prospect who has had Michael Johnson as his toughest test thus far inside the Octagon. Diego is notoriously hard to finish and tends to catch the eye of the judges more often than not with his unique style of fighting, which is something Jury has yet to experience inside the Octagon. Jury may very well find his range and keep Diego at bay, but the high probability this fight goes to decision will give Diego the time to perhaps get inside and pressure Jury in a way that could force the usual wild brawl Sanchez tends to thrive in.

Johny Hendricks (-380) vs. Robbie Lawler (+315)

Johny is the right favorite but is way overpriced when looking into this fight and where the potential advantages are for Robbie Lawler. Both men are southpaws and it is Lawler who is 2” taller and will have a 3” reach advantage, possibly gaining a small edge in the stand up department. This seemingly small edge is only amplified when underlining how heavy both fighter’s hands are coupled with their willingness to keep the fight standing. Johny will most likely be the one to initiate the takedown, but Lawler showed in his bout with Koscheck that he can effectively use his butterfly guard to get back up and fight where he is strongest.

Robbie’s record at Welterweight is 11-2, with one loss coming via injury (hip dislocation) to Pete Spratt and of course the only KO loss of his career to Nick Diaz, not once has he been a victim of being out grappled like he was at 185lbs. With this in mind, if the fight stays standing, taking Robbie at 3 times your bet could be the best good dog pick of 2014.

Other Main Card Bouts:

Ovince St-Preux (-365) vs. Nikita Krylov (+305)

Krylov certainly looked night and day from his debut against Soa Palelei with a stunning KO victory over Walt Harris in his last outing in the Octagon. Krylov will be making his Light Heavyweight debut this time around and it will be as a replacement for Thiago Silva (who’s kind of a shitty person and is no longer welcome in the UFC) on short notice. OSP has the benefit of a full camp and should be able to use some GnP to fend off the submission specialist Nikita while maintaining control on top either pulling off the decision victory or even stopping Krylov due to strikes.

Carlos Condit (-185) vs. Tyron Woodley (+160)

Tyron Woodley is looking to jump into the Welterweight top ten rankings in a big way by taking on the UFC #2 ranked Welterweight Carlos Condit. Many like Woodley to use his wrestling pedigree to exploit Condit in this fight and grind out a win, as we have seen both Condit become a victim of this as well as Woodley often come out the victor while employing this style of attack against his opponents. Condit has shown some improvements in his ground game, notably being able to stand up after being taken down by Johny Hendricks several times in their razor close affair back at UFC 158. Condit’s advantage in the stand for this fight could be the difference if he is able to use leg kicks to keep Woodley off balance and unable to drive forward for takedowns.

Condit is yet to be KO’d and Woodley is not the best striker he has faced, not by a long shot — Woodley will most likely have to stick to a one dimensional approach of going for the takedown, something Condit may be more than ready for considering his losses to GSP and Hendricks previously. Carlos is coming off an ultra impressive FOTN KO of Martin Kampmann and seems to have enough tools in his belt to ensure he is next in line for a title shot at 170lbs.

Parlay 1
Scoggins-OSP-Condit

Parlay 2
Pineda-Scoggins-Shields

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 170: Rousey vs. McMann’ Edition


(Damn, Vin Diesel’s acting lessons have clearly taken Rousey’s mean-mug to a WHOLE. NOTHA. LEVEL..)

By Dan George 

Let us all gather round, hold hands, and pray. Pray that this weekend’s UFC 170 manages to rise above the level of the decision-filled snoozefests that were UFC 169 and Fight Night 36. Of course, with a main event featuring Ronda Rousey, whose “kill ratio” is 100% (as Don Frye would put it if he gave two shits about this fight), and a co-main event featuring the biggest squash match of the year (so far), it looks like UFC 170 will rise to the level of those 10 decision events at the very minimum. I’m guessing that sound I just heard was all of you reaching into your wallets for $50.

Regardless of whether or not UFC 170 is able to deliver from an action standpoint, it has plenty of opportunities to deliver from a gambler’s standpoint, so join us after the jump for some sexy gambling lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and even sexier advice. You know, because women.

The Props:

Josh Sampo (+145) vs. Zach Makovsky (-165)

Makovsky is a perfect 3-0 since dropping down to flyweight and looked outstanding in his upset victory of Scott Jorgensen in his UFC debut at UFC on Fox 9. Sampo is looking to extend his 5 fight winning streak after an equally impressive debut RNC submission win over Ryan Benoit at the TUF 18 finale. The +105 prop that he wins via decision is a nice plus money option, as “Fun Size” should be able to use his NCAA division 1 wrestling to nullify Sampo’s submission threat on the ground while getting the better of the exchanges in the stand up department. Makovsky makes the parlay at a bargain -165 to win outright.


(Damn, Vin Diesel’s acting lessons have clearly taken Rousey’s mean-mug to a WHOLE. NOTHA. LEVEL..)

By Dan George 

Let us all gather round, hold hands, and pray. Pray that this weekend’s UFC 170 manages to rise above the level of the decision-filled snoozefests that were UFC 169 and Fight Night 36. Of course, with a main event featuring Ronda Rousey, whose “kill ratio” is 100% (as Don Frye would put it if he gave two shits about this fight), and a co-main event featuring the biggest squash match of the year (so far), it looks like UFC 170 will rise to the level of those 10 decision events at the very minimum. I’m guessing that sound I just heard was all of you reaching into your wallets for $50.

Regardless of whether or not UFC 170 is able to deliver from an action standpoint, it has plenty of opportunities to deliver from a gambler’s standpoint, so join us after the jump for some sexy gambling lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and even sexier advice. You know, because women.

The Props:

Josh Sampo (+145) vs. Zach Makovsky (-165)

Makovsky is a perfect 3-0 since dropping down to flyweight and looked outstanding in his upset victory of Scott Jorgensen in his UFC debut at UFC on Fox 9. Sampo is looking to extend his 5 fight winning streak after an equally impressive debut RNC submission win over Ryan Benoit at the TUF 18 finale. The +105 prop that he wins via decision is a nice plus money option, as “Fun Size” should be able to use his NCAA division 1 wrestling to nullify Sampo’s submission threat on the ground while getting the better of the exchanges in the stand up department. Makovsky makes the parlay at a bargain -165 to win outright.

Alexis Davis (+150) vs. Jessica Eye (-130)

The only thing more controversial than Eye’s decision win over Kaufman was the consequential fall out and NC ruling from the TDLR a few weeks ago. Hopefully, Jessica will not be overly affected by the recent controversy that has surrounded her, but it may be a small difference maker in a razor sharp fight that will be close and most likely decided by the judge’s cards. +170 for Alexis Davis to win by decision is a solid risk if you believe that Eye will be good enough not to be submitted, but not good enough to control where this fight takes place.

Aljamain Sterling (-240) vs. Cody Gibson (+200)

With a perfect 8-0 record, Serra Longo Fight Team submission specialist Aljamain Sterling is a +215 prop to beat Cody Gibson inside the distance. Sterling has won his last three fights via RNC while 2 of Gibson’s 3 career losses have come via submission. If he cannot keep this fight standing, that’s easy money.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Mike Pyle (-185) vs. T.J. Waldburger (+160)

“Quicksand” is a 2 to 1 favorite to avoid the submission game of T.J. Walburger, who comes in as the +160 underdog. All signs point towards Pyle being the right favorite; prior to his 30 second sparring session gone wrong with Matt Brown at UFN 26, he was riding a four fight win streak and the last time he lost by submission was close to five years ago. With 3 of his 4 UFC wins coming via submission, T.J. Waldburger has found success when he hits the mat with his opponent, something Pyle will most likely participate in here. With the likelihood this fight goes to the ground, Waldburger is fighting where he is strongest while Pyle plays with fire and hopes not to get burned. Pyle if you must, but probably a better idea to skip and simply enjoy this one.

Main Card bouts:

Stephen Thompson (-135) vs. Robert Whittaker (+115)

Stephen is the better striker on paper and Whittaker prefers to stand with his opponents in the cage. Thompson should be able to land first from and begin to find his range as the fight progresses. Whittaker may eventually have to work at taking “Wonderboy” down if the first round does not go well on the feet, which may lead to Thompson creating distance and fighting off his back foot on the way to the scorecards. Thompson to win.

Demian Maia (+240) vs. Rory Macdonald (-280)

Not sure that anyone is running to the window to lay -280 on Rory MacDonald to beat Demian Maia given the 2013 that he had. Rory has the tools to best Maia on the feet, but Demian will surely be looking to take this fight down to the ground right away. This leads to the question of whether or not Rory can get back to his feet or whether or not he will look like Jon Fitch did against Maia. Rory may opt to use the jab he found success with against strong grapplers to keep Maia at bay and outpoint the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace until a window opens for him to end the fight (if the window presents itself…cough.. Jake Ellenberger) or simply ride out another decision victory. Rory to win.

Daniel Cormier (-1300) vs. Patrick Cummins (+850)

-1300 means there is no point trying to make much profit off picking Cormier to win against the 4-0 short notice replacement Patrick Cummins here. Did Cummins really school Cormier in wrestling practice so bad that it led Daniel to break down in tears? Or is Cummins attempting to get inside Cormier’s head in hopes of pulling off the upset of the year this Saturday night? Well we know for sure that Pat…sorry… Patrick has upset Cormier, but from the looks of it, this may work against him once the cage door closes. Cormier to win via hulk smash is not available but highly likely nonetheless. Cormier to win.

Put 10 dollars on Cummins to win. Just because.

Ronda Rousey (-460) vs. Sara McMann (+365)

The line suggests otherwise, but this fight has to be the closest fight on the cards based on the pedigree of both fighters alone. McMann is a silver medalist in wrestling, Rousey a bronze medalist in Judo, and both are undefeated thus far in their respective careers. Ronda has given up her back to far lesser a grappler than McMann, but always ends up in the same position by the end of the fight, forcing the tap from by applying her signature armbar submission. McMann, on the other hand, has either finished her opponent on the ground or given the audience a 15 minute wrestling clinic by controlling her opponent en route to a decision victory.

While many expect to see Ronda Rousey’s striking game to be put on display, it can be argued that under the bright lights and with the gold on the line, these ladies will want to go with what brought them to the dance. The fight boils down to what happens when McMann initiates the first takedown and whether or not Ronda counters effectively with one of those beautifully timed/executed Judo throws which finds her on top of McMann in control on the ground. The possibilities when these two hit the mat are endless and this contest will offer the highest caliber grappling the UFC audience has ever seen. Rousey to win.

Parlay 1
Makovsky-Koch

Parlay 2
Sterling-Assuncao

Props
Makovsky +105 to win by decision
Davis +170 to win by decision
Sterling +215 to win inside the distance

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 168: Silva vs. Weidman II’ Edition

(Silva and Weidman talk us through their first fight. The words “lucky” and “bullshit” are thrown around rather liberally.)

By Dan George

I trust you all had a Merry Christmas, Nation, but now it’s time to get back to business. This Saturday, quite possibly the biggest card in the history of the UFC is going down in Vegas when middleweight champion Chris Weidman (still crazy to type) attempts to become the first man to ever go 2-0 against Anderson Silva at UFC 168.

OK, so maybe it’s not the biggest (or best) card in UFC History, but the fact that those of us who plan on purchasing the card will start off an additional five dollars in the hole means that I’ve got my word cut out for me. Join me below for the pound-for-pound best gambling advice in all the Interwebz and maybe, just maybe, we will all kick off the New Year with a little extra cash in our pocket. All gambling lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Chris Leben (+255) vs. Uriah Hall (-310)

While not as heavy a favorite as in the past, Uriah Hall has simply not shown the brilliance we saw from him while in the TUF house to warrant laying -300ish on this fight. On the other side of the spectrum you have Chris Leben, who will be looking to avoid a fourth straight loss inside the octagon and the inevitable pink slip that comes along with it. This fight feels like a loser-leaves-town match and Uriah should be able to use his angles and speed to pick Leben apart on the feet, but if he cannot finish Leben early, this fight may get ugly and this is where Leben generally shines. If you cannot resist, the -120 prop that this fight does not go past 2.5 rounds may be worth a look.


(Silva and Weidman talk us through their first fight. The words “lucky” and “bullshit” are thrown around rather liberally.)

By Dan George

I trust you all had a Merry Christmas, Nation, but now it’s time to get back to business. This Saturday, quite possibly the biggest card in the history of the UFC is going down in Vegas when middleweight champion Chris Weidman (still crazy to type) attempts to become the first man to ever go 2-0 against Anderson Silva at UFC 168.

OK, so maybe it’s not the biggest (or best) card in UFC History, but the fact that those of us who plan on purchasing the card will start off an additional five dollars in the hole means that I’ve got my word cut out for me. Join me below for the pound-for-pound best gambling advice in all the Interwebz and maybe, just maybe, we will all kick off the New Year with a little extra cash in our pocket. All gambling lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Chris Leben (+255) vs. Uriah Hall (-310)

While not as heavy a favorite as in the past, Uriah Hall has simply not shown the brilliance we saw from him while in the TUF house to warrant laying -300ish on this fight. On the other side of the spectrum you have Chris Leben, who will be looking to avoid a fourth straight loss inside the octagon and the inevitable pink slip that comes along with it. This fight feels like a loser-leaves-town match and Uriah should be able to use his angles and speed to pick Leben apart on the feet, but if he cannot finish Leben early, this fight may get ugly and this is where Leben generally shines. If you cannot resist, the -120 prop that this fight does not go past 2.5 rounds may be worth a look.

The Good Dogs:

John Howard (+130) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (-150)

At +130, John Howard is a solid underdog pick in a fight that will most likely be won by the stronger grappler. Siyar is most likely the better striker, but Howard is well versed enough in the stand up game to avoid anything catastrophic like Paulo Thiago experienced at UFC on FUEL 2 and should be able to find a way to get Bahadurzada against the cage early and often in this fight. Siyar has 6 finishes in his last 8 fights, 5 of which came in the first round, while Howard has not been stopped in the first round of a fight since 2007. If Howard is able to get this fight into the 2nd and 3rd rounds, he most likely will do so by nullifying Siyar’s offense by mixing up striking with takedowns which may give him the nod from the judges. Howard to win.

William Macario (+145) vs. Bobby Voelker (-160)

Currently 0-2 in the octagon, Voelker has shown an ability to take punishment more than deliver punishment as of late. If he does not get off to a good start against Macario, he may very well be looking at a third consecutive loss in the UFC. The major caveat is that Macario seemed to gas in his last fight with Leonardo Santos and Voelker’s ability to take a beating and keep ticking may offer some dramatic moments if this fight gets into the 3rd round. That said, I like Macario to win here via a violent flurry early in the first round.

Jim Miller (-365) vs. Fabricio Camoes (+305)

At -350 or higher, Jim Miller is the heavy favorite to beat Fabricio Camoes, but it is in the prop category that we find +110 for Miller to win inside the distance, which is truly the best “good dog” pick in this fight. Miller rarely plays the cautious fighter in his bouts and should look to close out this fight before the judges can get involved. Camoes is not a pushover, but has only beat Tommy Hayden inside the Octagon while Miller has consistently faced high level competition and should be able to outclass Camoes anywhere this fight takes place. +110 Miller to win inside the distance.

Dustin Poirier (-230) vs. Diego Brandao (+190)

A veritable potpourri of plus money options are offered in this fight, but the two that are most appealing would be that a) This has FOTN written all over it and b) Poirier should win by decision. Without an official line available, the return for a FOTN should be in the neighborhood of between 5 to 7 times the wager, while +165 is the current line for Poirier to take this one on the judges’ cards. Poirier will have the height and reach advantage here while Brandao has yet to be finished in the UFC, which all points towards an exciting fight that may very well go the entire 15 minutes. Diego is also training with the last man to beat Poirier (Cub Swanson) at Jackson’s MMA and he will surely have “The Diamond” scouted heading into this tilt. Poirier +165 by decision and FOTN prop.

Other Main Card Bouts:

Josh Barnett (-190) vs. Travis Browne (+165)

Barnett is currently hovering around -200 in a fight that will be determined by whether or not Barnett can get things to the mat. Browne has not been threatened with a takedown-centric approach by any of his opponents in the UFC, which should make this the toughest test of his career. Without having seen Browne face this challenge consistently throughout a fight, it is difficult to gauge whether or not he will be able to stop one of the best grapplers the HW division has to offer. Barnett should be able to put Browne on his back in this fight and find a way to either win by submission or on the scorecards. Barnett to win.

Ronda Rousey (-900) vs. Miesha Tate (+700)

Miesha has gone on record stating that she will shoot herself in the face if she is sarmbarred by Rousey again. Rousey is between -700 to -900 at the various sports books and although she has finished all of her MMA fights inside the first round, there may be an opportunity to play the prop that this fight starts round 2 at -130. Tate surely learned something from the first fight and hopefully will be able to avoid the ground game for the first five minutes. Rousey showed in her fight with Liz Carmouche that (despite giving up her back) once engaged in a grappling contest, the armbar is all but a formality. While Tate is a solid striker, her grappling, much like any woman in the UFC, is not on Rousey’s level and Ronda will surely find a way to exploit this fact to retain her title. I pray that she does not intend to actually follow through on this. Rousey to win. UH-DUH.

Chris Weidman (+135) vs. Anderson Silva (-155)

The line has not moved very much since this rematch was announced. Weidman showed that “The Spider’s” antics had no effect on him and that he can outduel Silva on the ground and on the feet at less than 100% coming off a one year layoff. Why then is Silva considered the favorite after losing the first contest? Who believes that Silva has an advantage on the ground in this fight? Both questions should tip the scales in Weidman’s favor, but clearly the odds are being generated on the very same thing that cost Silva his title. The odds here suggest that Silva will be able to regain his title by out striking Weidman, and despite being KO’d in the second round at UFC 162, it seemed rather obvious that Silva had begun to connect with Weidman’s lead leg, take away the takedown threat, and take over control of the contest on the feet. Until he got too cocky, that is.

However, Weidman not only won the first fight clearly, he also won the first round very convincingly by exposing Silva’s struggles with strong grapplers. Weidman also noted that he saw Silva’s eyes roll back in his head in the first round while he delivered ground and pound to the former champ. Weidman has the tools to create this type of environment again for Silva and may be able to connect enough times to stop Silva on the ground, which is perceived to be the most probable avenue to victory for Chris in this bout. Weidman clearly can win this fight in more areas than Silva, but again, the oddsmakers have Silva pinned as the favorite for the brief moments in the second round where Silva showed how dominant he can be with his striking. Weidman has had many knee surgeries and it seemed that he began laboring in the second round when Silva began connecting. To his credit, Weidman was able to push through this and become the new champion, but his win was at least partially due to an opponent who took his foot off the gas pedal.

This time around, Silva will most likely stay focused on keeping the fight standing and attacking Weidman’s lead leg with punishing kicks, which may limit the champ’s ability to score the takedown. If Silva is able to avoid the takedown consistently and cut out the shenanigans, he should create the type of fight that will result in him regaining his title. If Weidman can take Silva down early and punish him enough, he may finish the former champ inside the first round. The fight should be a pick’em as both fighters have shown, however briefly, the ability to control their opponent in the first bout. Silva to win inside the distance, possibly 3rd round TKO stoppage.

Parlay 1
Siver-Barnett

Parlay 2
Poirier-Miller

Parlay 3
Barnett-Macario

Happy Holidays and all the best in 2014, CP Nation.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 167: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks’ Edition


(JUST TAKE MY MONEY ALREADY!! Image via Adam Doyle.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

With a win over Johny Hendricks this weekend, welterweight kingpin Georges St. Pierre will break *three* UFC records: Most UFC wins ever (!), Most title bout wins ever (!!) and dependent on how long the fight lasts, most octagon hours logged ever (meh). It’s an intriguing prospect to say the least, and a fight that headlines a card stacked to the brim with equally intriguing prospects and matchups.

But you don’t care about octagon records or intriguing prospects, you care about money. Cash. Doubloons. “A whole lotta Kale chips,” if you know what I’m saying. That’s where we come in, delivering the pound-for-pound best gambling advice week after week after tireless week. So join us after the jump to sneak a peek at the UFC 167 gambling lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and get in on more gambling advice than your broke ass will even know what to do with.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Josh Koscheck (-105) vs. Tyron Woodley (-115)

Koscheck is looking to avoid losing his third straight while Woodley will be trying to avoid going 1-3 in his last four bouts. The skill sets of both fighters here are very similar — strong wrestlers who often opt for a stand up affair — hence the almost even odds here. But in a game of tag where both fighters have found success (coupled with Fraggle’s penchant for his signature eye poke), picking a winner at the window is a true coin flip. Skip it.


(JUST TAKE MY MONEY ALREADY!! Image via Adam Doyle.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

With a win over Johny Hendricks this weekend, welterweight kingpin Georges St. Pierre will break *three* UFC records: Most UFC wins ever (!), Most title bout wins ever (!!) and dependent on how long the fight lasts, most octagon hours logged ever (meh). It’s an intriguing prospect to say the least, and a fight that headlines a card stacked to the brim with equally intriguing prospects and matchups.

But you don’t care about octagon records or intriguing prospects, you care about money. Cash. Doubloons. “A whole lotta Kale chips,” if you know what I’m saying. That’s where we come in, delivering the pound-for-pound best gambling advice week after week after tireless week. So join us after the jump to sneak a peek at the UFC 167 gambling lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and get in on more gambling advice than your broke ass will even know what to do with.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Josh Koscheck (-105) vs. Tyron Woodley (-115)

Koscheck is looking to avoid losing his third straight while Woodley will be trying to avoid going 1-3 in his last four bouts. The skill sets of both fighters here are very similar — strong wrestlers who often opt for a stand up affair — hence the almost even odds here. But in a game of tag where both fighters have found success (coupled with Fraggle’s penchant for his signature eye poke), picking a winner at the window is a true coin flip. Skip it.

The Good Dogs:

Brian Ebersole (+180) vs. Rick Story (-220)

Ebersole coming in at +180 is a great line and possibly overgenerous when taking into account that Brian’s last loss came on short notice. That he’s been battling injuries ever since is not the most confidence-inspiring aspect of this fight, but Ebersole is still worth taking a risk on with a full training camp under his belt. Story was a world beater at one point but has gone 2-4 over his past six fights. In a bout that has a high probability of going the distance, Ebersole may be able to employ a grappling centric approach to nullify Story and get a decision win.

Erik Perez (-355) vs. Edwin Figueroa (+295)

Perez is the heavy favorite at -330 and it may be safe to say Figueroa is fighting for a job. The prop bet that this fight goes to decision is +120 and worth the investment, as Figueroa has only been finished once in his career and has gone the distance in 3 of his 5 UFC appearances. Perez is coming off a loss in his toughest test thus far, a decision loss to Takeya Mizugaki at Fight Night 27, while Edwin has shown he can go the distance with one of the best the division has to offer in Michael McDonald. +120 fight goes the distance.

Donald Cerrone (-115) vs. Evan Dunham (-105)

Cerrone is the very slight favorite here, but with a -195 prop that the fight goes the distance, I suggest placing two equally small amount wagers on either fighter to win by decision as a decent risk-reward option. Like the last card, this fight jumps off the page with regards to FOTN and should pay out at about +500 should it obtain that honor, making it too hard to pass up. If it is half as exciting as Sanchez vs. Melendez, that should be good enough to get the nod from Dana.

Tim Elliott (-155) vs. Ali Bagautinov (+135)

I might be in the minority here, but +135 for Bagautinov to couple his sambo background with a Greg Jackson game plan seems all too good to pass up. Elliott is the more experienced fighter and will not be held down for three rounds, but may be worried about this prospect more so than his opponent. If Bagautinov can mix up his attack like Dodson did against Elliott, he may find a way to stifle Elliott’s offense en route to a decision win. Elliott will try to earn respect early with a well timed combination and the confidence he gains could turn this fight into another solid back and forth FOTN candidate as well. +120 Bagautinov wins.

Other Main Card Bouts:

Rory MacDonald (-350) vs. Robbie Lawler (+290)

Since returning to the UFC ‘s 170-pound division, Robbie has finished both of his fights in impressive fashion and seems to be primed for one last run towards a title shot. Standing in Lawler’s way is the heavy favorite and GSP protégé Rory MacDonald, who many believe is simply too strong for Lawler to handle. This fight may play out like Larkin vs. Lawler, where Larkin’s diverse striking and effective G-n-P eventually lead to a decision win for Lorenz. Larkin is a 185er and as time goes on McDonald may be as well, so look for McDonald to use his reach, be first, and keep Robbie guessing at a distance.

Rashad Evans (-190) vs. Chael Sonnen (+165)

Floating around -200, Rashad makes the parlay. While Evans has shown some inconsistencies in his game as of late, one thing he has always proved is that he will not be out grappled by his opponent. Chael definitely is a high-level wrestler, a true threat to take Rashad down, but as we saw against Jones, is also not immune to being controlled on the ground by a talented/bigger grappler either. Rashad can win this fight both standing and on the mat; Chael really is not known for his striking prowess and will have to be the first fighter to dominate Rashad on the ground if he is to win. Rashad makes the parlay with more ways to win and the assumption that he is a better wrestler than Chael.

Georges St. Pierre (-270) vs. Johny Hendricks (+230)

Johny Hendricks will be bringing the most devastating left hand the WW division has to offer against *the* best the WW division has to offer. Johny is also being touted as the best wrestler GSP has ever fought, a slight against Matt Hughes perhaps, but maybe true nonetheless. The problem is, what if Johnny is the best wrestler GSP has ever faced and he still gets taken down by Georges at will like Hughes, Koscheck and Fitch? What if GSP favors footwork and one of the most underrated jabs (Freddie Roach inspired) in MMA to create enough distance to keep the fight standing and outside of Hendricks striking range?

The one caveat is that GSP’s most recent loss stemmed from a well-placed punch, and there’s no arguing that Johny Hendricks can do more with one punch than most. GSP was also caught clock watching a little over halfway into his last fight with Diaz, but Johnny is not renowned for exploiting his opponent’s cardio like Nick is. GSP should be able to do what GSP does, find a way to get the fight where he wants it to be and keep it there for 25 minutes. GSP to win -270.

Parlay 1
Leites-Evans

Parlay 2
Leites-MacDonald-GSP

Parlay 3
Evans-Ebersole