Even Dana White says “the fact that [Maurico “Shogun” Rua] is the underdog is crazy!” But the online sportsbooks have made Shogun the dog by as much as +165. The current UFC Light Heavyweight Champ feels disrespected and rightfully so. Jon “Bones” Jones has proved himself to be a phenomenal athlete and worthy […]
Even Dana White says “the fact that [Maurico “Shogun” Rua] is the underdog is crazy!” But the online sportsbooks have made Shogun the dog by as much as +165. The current UFC Light Heavyweight Champ feels disrespected and rightfully so. Jon “Bones” Jones has proved himself to be a phenomenal athlete and worthy opponent but this is his first crack at a Top 5 fighter in the UFC and this particular Top 5 fighter is actually number 1! Rua established himself as the Light Heavyweight Champion by soundly handing Lyoto Machida his first professional loss with a knockout in the first round of UFC 113.
Shogun is a former Pride Champion, a current UFC Champion and only 6 years older than his 23 year old opponent. Shogun can beat Jon Jones by taking his legs out in similar fashion we saw him batter Machida’s legs. He also has proved several times in his career that he has knockout powerful punches. All eyes are on Jones this Saturday night. But this is also Jon Jones’ fight to lose. In a fight that should be at least EVEN in the books, take advantage of the Rua value.
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MMA Fix just moved on up to a bigger and fancier office, so we don’t have our new studio built out yet to shoot our UFC 127 Betting Odds videos. But as we get through organizing our new place, we decided we would still provide you with a blog post on your best bets for […]
Our new office! And you thought we operated out of my mom’s basement.
MMA Fix just moved on up to a bigger and fancier office, so we don’t have our new studio built out yet to shoot our UFC 127 Betting Odds videos. But as we get through organizing our new place, we decided we would still provide you with a blog post on your best bets for this weekend’s event. Our very special expert MMA analysts, Larry Pepe of ProMMARadio.com and Damon Martin of MMAWeekly.com have provided their UFC 127 best bet picks below:
DENNIS SIVER (+300) vs. GEORGE SOTIROPOULOS (-325):
Larry Pepe: Sotiropoulos has gone a stellar 7-0 in the UFC with his last three wins over Joe Lauzon, Kurt Pellegrino and Joe Stevenson. The Aussie is a BJJ wizard on the ground with some of the quickest and smoothest ground transitions in recent memory. Siver has won 5 of his last 6, along with 4 post-fight bonuses. The German kickboxer will have a marked advantage on the feet (remember Tommy Speer’s KO of Sotiropoulos on TUF and Pellegrino’s rocking of the Aussie in the third round of their fight at UFC 116?) while Sots will have a significant edge if the fight hits the floor. Siver has said that he isn’t afraid to roll with Sotiropoulos which makes me concerned that he may be easier to get to the ground than if he fully understands the danger in going there. Some books have this one at -500, others have it around -300. While I think Sotiropoulos wins the fight, there’s no way he should be a -500 favorite. If you can get him at -300 or less it’s worth a play but I’ve seen Siver as high as +315. At that number, there’s too much value to ignore.
Damon Martin: Sotiropoulos is a huge favorite in this fight, but it’s with good reason. He’s been steamrolling through very solid competition, and most believe this fight is actually kind of a step down in the division for him. Denis Siver is a very serviceable lightweight fighter, but he’s not on the same level with Sotiropoulos at this point.
Even with the odds so far in extreme, I’d say the money goes to Sotiropoulos on this one. He’s simply the better fighter and being at home in Australia is only going to serve to improve his performance. Unless Siver can catch him with one big shot, I don’t see another way he wins this.
Larry’s Bet: Sotiropoulos at -325 or less
Damon’s Bet: Even with the odds so far in extreme, I’d say the money goes to Sotiropoulos on this one. He’s simply the better fighter and being at home in Australia is only going to serve to improve his performance. Unless Siver can catch him with one big shot, I don’t see another way he wins this.
Larry Pepe: Bisping has gone 6-2 since moving down to Middleweight with his only losses coming to Wanderlei Silva and Dan Henderson. Rivera has had a nice run lately, winning three straight against Osterneck, Kimmons and Quarry. (Only Kimmons still has a job in the UFC.) While he is a solid striker and may hold a power advantage over the Brit, Rivera is taking a big step up in competition here and hasn’t fought in 11 months. That’s not a winning scenario. Bisping has beaten better strikers than Rivera in Leben and, most recently, Akiyama and should be able to do the same here. He’s a younger, more active, more well-rounded fighter with a deeper gas tank and an added level of motivation to make Rivera pay for his barrage of online videos.
Damon Martin: If you asked me about this fight 3 months ago, I’d say Michael Bisping all day. I think he’s the faster fighter, the more diverse fighter, and usually sticks to his game plan perfectly to get him the win. Now however, Rivera is in Bisping’s head, plain and simple. The videos that Rivera put together have Bisping seething with anger and he would have been much better served to just laugh those off and stick to a cool calm demeanor.
Instead, Bisping looks legitimately rattled by what Rivera has done to hype this fight up and I think it could cost him in the end. If he starts stepping forward too much and getting aggressive out of anger, Rivera can and will knock him out. Don’t doubt Rivera’s power on the feet, and he does have tremendous stand-up. He’s been working boxing with Peter Welch for years, and also does jiu-jitsu with the Florian brothers.
Larry’s Bet: Bisping
Damon’s Bet: This would be a great underdog bet for UFC 127. Put your money on Jorge Rivera for the upset.
Larry Pepe: My heart says BJ but my head can’t ignore the facts. Since his return at UFC 58 in 2006, Penn has gone 1-3 in the welterweight division. He is a phenomenal fighter at 155 pounds and the more skilled mixed martial artist in this fight, but size matters in MMA circa 2011. Fitch is 13-1 in the UFC with a grinding, highly criticized style that rarely sees him finish a fight. The last time he scored a stoppage was 2007 against Roan Carneiro and he’s been involved in eight straight decisions since. I expect him to be involved in another decision on Saturday night that will see him wear Penn down and expose a cardio deficiency we’ve seen with The Prodigy at 170. If BJ wins it happens early, but don’t bet on it.
Damon Martin: This fight to me is simply one I look at where Jon Fitch fights the anti-B.J. Penn style. He powers people around in the clinch, looks for takedowns, and has a tremendous wrestling base. I see this fight going similar to the 2nd fight between Penn and Georges St-Pierre.
Fitch needs to pressure Penn against the cage and not let him stand on the outside and throw his jab. Fitch has never let any other opponent do that to him, so I don’t know why Penn would be the first. If Penn can stuff the takedowns and stay off the cage, he has a shot, but I just don’t see him being able to do that.
Larry’s Bet: Fitch
Damon’s Bet: I think Fitch takes him down and grinds him into the mat for a unanimous decision win.
So TUF 13 coaches, Brock Lesnar and Junior Dos Santos have already given their predictions of a victorious Jon Fitch at UFC 127 against BJ Penn, but they also both expect Fitch to win this fight via decision. Let’s face it folks, we all do… So why not make a little money on our […]
So TUF 13 coaches, Brock Lesnar and Junior Dos Santos have already given their predictions of a victorious Jon Fitch at UFC 127 against BJ Penn, but they also both expect Fitch to win this fight via decision. Let’s face it folks, we all do… So why not make a little money on our collective disappointment expectations? Currently, the online sportsbook, Bodog has their prop bets up and to get in on a little Fitch win-by-decision action, you only have to lay down -130. The price should continue to go up, so get your best value by placing your bets now! Click on our Bodog icon in the Odds Side Bar to the right of our Home Page to bet now.
UFC 126 went down about as we expected.
Let’s say you had a made a “standard” $100 bet on our best values, here’s how you’d have faired:
:: Public money was heavy on Vitor Belfort, but we just didn’t get it. Nothing against Belfort, but one of our top MMA Fix gambling rules is: Don’t bet against […]
UFC 126 went down about as we expected.
Let’s say you had a made a “standard” $100 bet on our best values, here’s how you’d have faired:
:: Public money was heavy on Vitor Belfort, but we just didn’t get it. Nothing against Belfort, but one of our top MMA Fix gambling rules is: Don’t bet against Anderson Silva until proven otherwise (same goes for GSP). By fight-time, the best value we could find for Silva was at -220 on Bookmaker here. So a bet of $100 would’ve earned you $45 in profit.
:: We never understood why Forrest Griffin was the dog against Rich Franklin. This always seemed like a classic Forrest-Griffin-is-all-heart-grind-it-out victory. Which it was. Had you taken the +125, you would’ve profited $125. Had you take the +250 on Griffin winning by decision, you’d have pocketed another $250. And had you taken our “what the eff” bet of a draw, you would’ve dropped $100.
:: Finally, Jon “Bones” Jones at +285 seemed like the lock of the evening. Jones earned the victory and his title shot. A $100 bet would’ve netted you around $35. We pumped this one for way more, but let’s just assume the standard $100 bet.
So if you had bet $100 on all of our suggestions, you would’ve won $455 had you not taken our flier, or $355 if you had. Not a bad night. Special recognition to Friend of Fix Larry Pepe, who nailed all of his picks as well.
It’s your last chance to place your bets for UFC: Fight for the Troops 2 and the only sure thing you’re feeling is excitment to see your favorite Octagon Girls donning camo-bikinis tomorrow night. We know! Finally, something different! It’s like, yeah they’re beautiful and you love them, but when you see them […]
Don't ask. Don't tell.
It’s your last chance to place your bets for UFC: Fight for the Troops 2 and the only sure thing you’re feeling is excitment to see your favorite Octagon Girls donning camo-bikinis tomorrow night. We know! Finally, something different! It’s like, yeah they’re beautiful and you love them, but when you see them in the same outfit month after month, sometimes twice and even three times in that month, you start to stray and want to look at this girl here or this girl here, and you don’t want to be a bad guy. You want to be loyal to your favorite girls! So thanks UFC for giving us a little naughty military wear to spice up our viewing pleasure. Now let us here at Fix help you with your other addiction…
For the best dog money value, you might want to place your money on George Roop in his bout with Mark Hominick. Roop’s dog value is as high as +200 on Betus: here and about +190 on the other major online sportsbooks. We like Roop because it looks that he’s found his home in the 145 lb division. By all accounts, he would have won his Fight of the Night bout which ended in a Draw against Leonard Garcia at WEC 47, had he not been deducted a point for a groin kick. George Roop also surprised everyone in his next fight against The Korean Zombie, Chan Sung Jung, when he ended the fight early in the second round with a head kick, earning Knock Out of the Night honors.
Dana White has said, Mark Hominick will get the title-shot against Jose Aldo in his home country of Canada at UFC 129, should he win the fight against Roop. White stated if Roop wins, they’ll “have to go back to the drawing board.” This could be incentive but also it could mean mounting pressure for the Shawn Tompkins protege. Hominick is coming off a split-decision win over Leonard Garcia and he’s facing a fellow Team Tompkins teammate in Roop, so the two men have sparred together in training several times and both know what to expect. It just seems here, Roop has nothing to lose, so maybe that might be all he needs to win.
We also like Evan Dunham a lot in his Main Event fight against Melvin Guillard but are really surprised by the numbers. Dunham is the favorite by as much as -260 at Betus. We agree Dunham should win this bout. He’s faced a bit tougher competition than Guillard in recent fights and there’s not one person, besides well this judge that thought he actually lost his UFC 119 bout against Sean Sherk, but that said…we might follow similar logic as to why we’d bet on Roop… There is added pressure for Dunham to win this fight or it might make the controversial Sherk match, a moot point. Guillard isn’t expected to win, even though he’s a Greg Jackson team member and is on a 3 fight win-streak right now, most recently against UFC 125 Knockout of the Night winner, Jeremy Stephens. And though, Guillard is a late replacement for the injured, Kenny Florian, keep in mind Guillard was already training and in fighting shape to face Yves Edwards on the preliminary card. So maybe that +200 dog money is worth laying on the line for Guillard: here.
For the expert MMA fan who’d like to try their hand at picking specific odds like Dunham by Decision or Inside Distance, you can place your bets at Bodog: here. Or if you think you can guess how many minutes a fight will last then have a little Nostradamus prediction fun at Bookmaker: here.
Don’t forget to check our Side Bar on our Home Page for a breakdown of the lines from all the major online sportsbooks.
(Props: YouTube.com/UFC)
Things didn’t go so hot last time for your old buddy the Gambling Addiction Enabler. Sometimes you ride the bull, and sometimes the bull knocks two of your teeth out on a Russian game show. That’s life. But even if you nev…
Things didn’t go so hot last time for your old buddy the Gambling Addiction Enabler. Sometimes you ride the bull, and sometimes the bull knocks two of your teeth out on a Russian game show. That’s life. But even if you never take our betting advice again, you owe it to yourselves to at least check out the odds for Sunday’s UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko show, because whoever set the lines for the preliminary card must have been high on cheese. As always, the opportunity for profit is there, if you’re a little smart and very lucky. BestFightOdds.com with the numbers…
MAIN CARD Jon Jones (-505) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (+450) Yushin Okami (-185) vs. Mark Munoz (+180) Jake Ellenberger (-155) vs. John Howard (+145) Tyson Griffin (-275) vs. Takanori Gomi (+260)
PRELIMINARY CARD Jacob Volkman (-116) vs. Paul Kelly (+115) Matt Riddle (-150) vs. DaMarques Johnson (+185) James Irvin (-160) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+155) Mike Massenzio (-150) vs. Brian Stann (+140) Charles Oliveira (-300) vs. Darren Elkins (+300) Rob Kimmons (-215) vs. Steve Steinbeiss (+175)
