Tag: UFC News

UFC on Fuel TV 3- Pre Fight Analysis Part III (Amir Sadollah (5-3) vs Jorge Lopez (11-2)

Amir Sadollah (5-3) vs Jorge Lopez (11-2) Amir Sadollah is well-known to MMA fans from his surprising run to win season seven of the The Ultimate Fighter. His win over C.B. Dolloway in the finale.

Amir Sadollah (5-3) vs Jorge Lopez (11-2)

Amir Sadollah is well-known to MMA fans from his surprising run to win season seven of the The Ultimate Fighter. His win over C.B. Dolloway in the finale was his first professional fight and all eight of his fights have come in the UFC. Since his win, he has struggled with injuries and lost every time he has been given a chance to step up in competition. No one would ever accuse the UFC of poor marketing strategy and they do a great job of getting the most out of the fighters who win on their reality show. Call it loyalty or call it branding but TUF winners generally stick around in the UFC. But another loss and an overall record of five wins and four losses would make it difficult for the UFC to continue giving Sadollah fights with so much talent on the roster at 170 pounds.

Enter Jorge Lopez. Lopez was not overly impressive in his first UFC fight though he did show some improvement toward the end of the fight. He doesn’t offer anything outstanding to trouble Sadollah and Sadollah should have the advantage everywhere in this fight. He has the ability to submit Lopez if Lopez takes him down and he’ll have an advantage standing that will be accentuated in the clinch. Sadollah’s knees are his most effective strikes and he will look to clinch with Lopez and unleash from there.

Sadollah is favored in the books at -200 with Lopez coming in at +160. Sadollah should be able to win this fight and a win would maintain his status as a viable commodity in the UFC. He should be looking to finish the fight and not just coast to a decision. A finish or at least a dominant decision would be a nice step in the right direction and could be a sign that he has fully recovered from all his injuries and is ready to fulfill the potential he showed when he originally burst onto the MMA scene.

Yves Jabouin (17-7) vs. Jeff Hougland (10-4)

This fight will feature a traditional MMA script. Jabouin is the striker with a well-rounded muay thai attack and he will do his best to keep the fight on the feet. Hougland is the grappler whose striking will serve solely to keep Jabouin honest and set up takedown attempts. On the surface, this looks like a bit of a mismatch with Jabouin being a clear favorite. But all of Hougland’s losses came in his first five fights and he won his UFC debut in a solid if not exciting decision over Donny Walker.

Jabouin has not achieved the level of success some predicted when he first entered the WEC. His muay thai is on point technically but he has not shown an ability to finish high level competition. He has split his last six fights and won his last two via split decision. His most recent fight against Wilel Watson was especially close and could have easily been scored a loss. If he wants to take the next step and be considered a major threat in the 135 pound division, he needs to make a statement against Hougland.

But it won’t be easy as Hougland will come in looking to increase his status and earn a huge victory for his career. To step up and take a fight as a replacement and earn a victory would certainly be impressive. To do that, he will need to get the fight to the ground. If he does, he has the submission skill to finish the fight. Jabouin has good balance and takedown defense but he can be dragged to the mat. Whether or not Hougland will be able to do so could be the determining factor in the fight.

Jabouin is heavily favored at -280 with Hougland at +220. One would have a difficult time finding someone willing to pick Hougland and I won’t go that far but Jabouin has not been overly impressive in his last few fights. Because of that, Jabouin should come out and look to finish a technically overmatched opponent in the first round. But if he is overconfident or finds himself playing the submission game with Hougland, we could see an upset. That said, I expect Jabouin to do his job and
dispatch Hougland quickly and impressively.

-Alan Wells

UFC on Fuel TV 3- Pre-Fight Analysis II (Jeremy Stephens (20-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (17-4)

Jeremy Stephens (20-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (17-4) While the headliner is the more important fight in terms of rankings and title positioning, this matchup is the favorite for fight of the night and should be.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Jeremy Stephens (20-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (17-4)

While the headliner is the more important fight in terms of rankings and title positioning, this matchup is the favorite for fight of the night and should be explosive from start to finish, which could come at any moment. Both Donald “ Cowboy” Cerrone and Jeremy Stephens are aggressive fighters who prefer to stand and strike. Both have been known to stay in the pocket and trade punches. Even to their own detriment. Both also find themselves in similar positions having lost to high ranking fighters in their last octagon appearance.

Stephens lost a close split decision to Anthony Pettis at UFC 136. A win over Pettis would have elevated him into the crowded top tier of 155 pound title contenders. The loss kept him just below that level where he has been stuck for years. Since 2009, Stevens has split his eight UFC appearances earning victories over Justin Bucholz, Sam Stout, Marcus Davis and Daniel Downs. In that same span, he has lost to Joe Lauzon, Gleison Tibau, Melvin Guillard and Pettis. That history establishes a clear trend of Stephens being unable to succeed against fighters at the peak of the lightweight division. He nearly broke that trend in his last fight and according to one of the three judges on that night, he did break the trend. He will look to build on that performance and finally obtain the signature win he has been seeking throughout his career. The matchup with Donald Cerrone offers that opportunity and the gameplan for Stephens should be similar to what we have seen with him in the past. His best weapons are his hands and he’ll look to use them to outbox Cerrone. While he doesn’t have the skill level required to repeat Nate Diaz’s recent performance against Cerrone, he will try to achieve the same results by keeping the pressure on Cerrone and outstriking him. Cerrone has never been knocked out but Jeremy Stephens has the power to be the first if Cerrone leaves him an opening.

Donald Cerrone is also coming off a loss to a top tier opponent but he was not as competitive in his fight with Diaz as Stephens was against Pettis. Cerrone was outboxed in a clinical performance by Nate Diaz, which probably says more about Diaz than it does about Cerrone. Cowboy has been one of the best lightweight fighters in the world over the last two years with his only clear losses coming to current UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson and Nate Diaz, who has been promised the winner of the upcoming championship bout between Henderson and Frankie Edgar. Cerrone has a more well rounded game than Stephens and he will look to capitalize on that in this fight. His standup features high level muay thai with great knees and kicks to go with his hands. He also possesses an underrated ground game but usually doesn’t show it because he prefers to fight on his feet. But if Stephens does decide to try to take Cerrone down, he will find himself in a dangerous guard. Cerrone is capable of from finishing from his back at any moment with a triangle or arm bar.

Cerrone is favored at -260 with Stephens at +200. Cerrone will have the upper hand wherever this fight takes place. If it stays on the feet, Cerrone’s muay thai is better than Stephens’ boxing and if it goes to ground, Cerrone has the clear grappling advantage. I don’t expect Cerrone to be able to finish Stephens but he should be able to batter him on the feet to win a unanimous decision.

-Alan Wells

UFC on Fuel TV 3: Pre Fight Analysis Part I (Dustin Poirier (12-1-0) vs Chan Sung Jung (12-3-0)

Dustin Poirier (12-1-0) vs Chan Sung Jung (12-3-0) Chan Sung Jung (aka The Korean Zombie) has quickly risen to the top of the list of MMA fan favorites. His attacking style lends itself to exciting.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Dustin Poirier (12-1-0) vs Chan Sung Jung (12-3-0)

Chan Sung Jung (aka The Korean Zombie) has quickly risen to the top of the list of MMA fan favorites. His attacking style lends itself to exciting fights and the finishes fans have come to expect from the sport. Beginning with his fights in Korea and Japan, global MMA fans watched him ascend from obscurity to mainstream popularity in just two years and he is now established as a headliner on a card that also features a former Ultimate Fighter winner in Amir Sadollah and one of the best 155 pound fighters in the world in Donald Cerrone. The question with Jung is whether his popularity has outpaced his skill level. The oddsmakers have Poirier as a solid favorite at -321 and any reasonable observer would have to agree that the line is right where it should be. But this is where one begins to run into problems when trying to breakdown an enigma like Jung.

Since he has come to the United States, he has engaged in one of the greatest fights in MMA history with Leonard Garcia, lost to George Roop via spectacular head kick knockout, beat Leonard Garcia and earned submission of the year with the first ever Twister in the UFC and knocked out Mark Hominick in seven seconds on his first punch of the night. Presented with just that information, one would wonder why he isn’t favored in this fight. The problem is that the reality of what took place in those fights is less exciting than the myth of the Korean Zombie. Leonard Garcia is one of the toughest, most entertaining fighters in the world at any weight class. He would fight Godzilla if someone would sanction it. And even if the scouting report said Godzilla had no ground game, Garcia would stand and throw haymakers until he got eaten. But he’s a mid-level opponent and beating him twice (which Jung did regardless of what the judges claimed to have seen in the first fight) doesn’t put a fighter in the upper echelon. The fight with Mark Hominick is even more misleading. What kind of conclusions can be drawn from a seven second fight? If Jung and Hominick were to fight 1000 times, how many times does the fight end that way? As exciting as it was, we didn’t learn anything from that fight. Add in the fact that George Roop clearly outstruck him in and knocked him out early in the second round and things get even more confusing. Who is Chan Sung Jung? Is he a mid level fighter with a knack for entertaining the fans or is he an upper echelon fighter who’s knockout of Hominick is a precursor of things to come? This fight should bring us closer to answering that question.

Dustin Poirier is one of the best young prospects in the 145 pound weight class. He has future title contender potential and this is his first opportunity to take a major step forward in marketability. He has the skills in every area to be great. Since coming to the UFC, he has improved with every fight. He beat the highly regarded Josh Grispi via unanimous decision, performed the same feat against Jason Young, submitted Pablo Garza via brabo choke and submitted Max Holloway via mounted triangle armbar. In his first two fights in the UFC, he controlled his opponents and clearly won the fights but his last two fights have been even more impressive with finishes that show his submission game is evolving rapidly. He clearly outclassed Garza in every aspect of the fight and when Garza failed to recognize the choke attempt in the second round, Poirier finished him quickly. He showed continued growth in the Holloway fight as he once again dominated and showed high level ground transitions in moving from an armbar to a triangle to a mounted triangle to a mounted triangle armbar. Holloway did not submit easily but Poirier would not be denied and once again, proved himself to be a level above his opponent.

This fight gives both fighters the opportunity they need. If Jung wins this fight, he will have to be considered as one of the top fighters in the weight class and might earn a title shot depending on what happens with the rest of the division. Hominick just fought for the title and Poirier is widely considered to be a top ten talent so back to back wins over those two might be enough to get what no one else at 145 seems to want, which is a title fight with Jose Aldo. Poirier likely has the same opportunity. Although his hit list would be less impressive than Jung’s, he has title level talent and if no one else is willing to fight Aldo, he could get his chance earlier than expected.

The line on this fight at the time of writing this article has Poirier favored at -321 with Jung the underdog at +279. That seems about right as Poirier clearly has the pedigree and talent advantage. But nobody thought Jung had a chance against Hominick and that fight ended with one punch. I expect Poirier to control the fight and win a unanimous decision but Jung has a habit of making measurables like pedigree and talent irrelevant. Can he do it again? We’ll find out on Tuesday night.

-Alan Wells

UFC on Fox 3 – Betting Recap

See previous Articles MMA Betting Strategies I and II for reference……. After 1 night of posted picks here on MMA Fix, the Crisper wound up 2-1, with wins on Nate Diaz (+175 when locked in,.


See previous Articles MMA Betting Strategies I and II for reference…….

After 1 night of posted picks here on MMA Fix, the Crisper wound up 2-1, with wins on Nate Diaz (+175 when locked in, closed at +155) and Alan Belcher (+220 when locked in, closed at +160). My posted loser was Josh Koschek (-125 when locked in, closed at +140, thought we might get a split decision on this closely contested battle). Because money management has taught me over the years to play “to win 1 unit” on favorites and “to risk ½ unit” on dogs, I wound up + .725 units, for another night of profits!!

The Crisper was a little nervous to post both of his favorite picks, as he didn’t want to have a losing night for all MMA Fixers out there on the first night of posted picks (especially since Dodson was -500). From now on all FAVORITE FAVORITES and at least 1 Dog will be posted each night of fights….all for FREE of course!

Getting back to the action on Saturday, impressive performances were turned in by 3 fighters in particular.

Alan Belcher – how did he keep slipping out of all those leg locks??? Seriously it must be scary when a little Tasmanian Devil lookin’ Jiu Jitsu black belt grabs your foot, then turns on it so you can’t see what’s going on under there….eeesh! Belcher is for real…wondering who he will be paired up with next?

Lavar “Big” Johnson – This is one “Big”, Bad Dude. I counted 38 full out roundhouses to the head of Pat Barry before he finally fell…not bad for a “Big” man. His conditioning is excellent for a heavyweight…and he is definitely “BIG”. One has to wonder if his nickname has any dual meaning?

Nate Diaz – pure domination of a very good opponent. Used his reach and began taunting Miller before literally picking him apart with precision striking. Title fight here he comes.

Closing Note – For all of us MMA junkies out there, how great was it to not have to cough up $60 bucks for this great night of action? By the way, why do they even offer the non-HD version of these fights for $49.95? I mean seriously…NON-HD? What’s the point?

Check back this weekend for the Crisper’s picks for Tuesday’s UFC on Fuel card.

Boom

MMA Betting Strategies Part II- Always Go With At Least 1 “Dog of the Night”

No matter how much you read up on all of these fighters, or how sure you are that one guy is that much better than his opponent, there is virtually always one or more big.

No matter how much you read up on all of these fighters, or how sure you are that one guy is that much better than his opponent, there is virtually always one or more big upset on each fight card. MMA betting is a fickle game. In my opinion, there is no other sport in the world where you can find as much value as you can in MMA lines. Sure, there’s the well known and hyped, huge favorites (-400 or higher) that are pretty sure things.

However, there are also a few fights each night where a heavy favorite is basically unproven, or facing a tough style matchup. How some of these fighters warrant laying 3 to 1 odds when they haven’t beaten any worthy opponents, or if we know nothing about their opponent that night, who could be a VERY dangerous fighter, is beyond me. That is where my strategy of picking one of these “Dog” fights on each card has padded my bankroll over the years.

On a given night of say 10 fights, I like to do my due diligence on each fighter individually, then see how they match up with their opponent. I will then usually pick my three FAVORITE FAVORITES. In other words, the three favorites I like the most I lock in, hoping to go 3-0, 2-1 at worst. Then, during the course of my research I will find value in 2 or 3 Dogs. From there I will narrow it down to the best “Dog of the Night”, and put 1/2 a unit on it, so as to not blow the entire nights winnings. Because the odds on these Dogs are usually +150 or better (sometimes as high as +350), we can see huge profits from these Dog wagers.

Let’s take UFC on Fox Saturday night. Of the big Dogs, my pick to pull off the upset is Alan Belcher (16-5). Belcher is 6’2″, vs. the 5’8″ submission specialist Rousimar Palhares (23-3). Belcher has the experience to understand that if this fight goes to the ground, he will be tapping faster than Spider in Goodfellas when Tommy shoots him in the foot.

The key to this fight for Belcher will be to stay on his feet and use his 4 inch reach advantage to keep Palhares away from him, while scoring points and winning each round. Belcher’s conditioning is superior, and if he can get the fight into the 3rd when both fighters will be lathered up and “slippery when wet,” the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu specialist will be less dangerous with his leg lock attempts. Belcher may be able to finish him in the 3rd, but if I were in his corner I would advise him to keep his distance and go for the 29-28 decision, and pad our bankrolls at +220.

-The Cookie Crisper