UFC on Fox 10: Preliminary Card Predictions

The UFC comes back to Chicago this weekend when UFC on Fox 10 goes down on Saturday. Headlined by former UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson, the main card looks like it will provide a great show.
Before that, though, we have some fun prelim…

The UFC comes back to Chicago this weekend when UFC on Fox 10 goes down on Saturday. Headlined by former UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson, the main card looks like it will provide a great show.

Before that, though, we have some fun prelims. A number of up-and-coming prospects, including Sergio Pettis and Mike Rhodes, will strut their stuff before the main card in an attempt to move up the ladder.

After a strong start to the season with a 5-1 record at UFC Fight Night in Singapore, I tripped up big time at UFC Fight Night in Atlanta. We will see if I bounce back with these prelim predictions.

Without further ado, here are the UFC on Fox 10 prelim predictions.

 

2014 Riley’s Record: 7-5

Last Event: UFC Fight Night 35 (2-4)

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UFC on FOX 10: Josh Thomson vs. Benson Henderson Analysis (feat. Roni Taylor)

The UFC’s lightweight division has long been considered the most talent-rich weight class in all of mixed martial arts.
Simply put, there are no easy fights at 155 pounds. Everyone, from the lowest-ranked lightweight to the highest, is an absolu…

The UFC’s lightweight division has long been considered the most talent-rich weight class in all of mixed martial arts.

Simply put, there are no easy fights at 155 pounds. Everyone, from the lowest-ranked lightweight to the highest, is an absolute savage that can beat any man on any given night. Conversely, given how deep the talent pool is, it takes a special breed of fighter to rise up and reign over the division as champion.

Benson Henderson was well on his way to becoming the greatest lightweight champion of all time. Tied with B.J Penn for the most consecutive lightweight title defenses at three, Henderson was aiming for No. 4 when he stepped into the Octagon with Anthony Pettis at UFC 164 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Unfortunately for Henderson, it wasn’t his night. Pettis dethroned the MMA Lab product with a first-round submission victory and, once again, took a belt away from his nemesis.

He wants it back. Henderson wants the belt back badly and he’s determined to annihilate any foe placed in front of him to get there.

Henderson’s road back to the title begins this Saturday night against top contender Josh Thomson in the main event of UFC on FOX 10.

A former Strikeforce lightweight champion, Thomson is fresh off a thunderous knockout victory over Nate Diaz at UFC on FOX 7 last April. “The Punk” is hell-bent and determined to add the UFC title on his mantle.

To help me analyze this fight card, I reached out to television personality and international fitness model, Roni Taylor-Parsons.

Taylor is the most-followed female Vegas personality and an absolute sports nut!

If you read my fantasy MMA Super Bowl card, I listed Taylor as my fictional backstage interviewer. You’re about to find out why.

Ciccarelli: We’ve got a fantastic lightweight fight, between No. 1 contender Josh Thomson and former champ Benson Henderson headlining UFC on FOX 10 this Saturday night. Originally, Thomson was supposed to challenge champion Anthony Pettis for the belt but once again injuries have thrown us a curveball. Do you think that, stylistically, Henderson is actually a tougher matchup for “The Punk?” 

Taylor: I absolutely think Thomson is in for a rough ride on Saturday night. The Henderson that we saw lose the belt to Pettis will not be the same one that steps into the cage with Thomson this weekend. One thing we know about Ben is that he has a tenacious work ethic to grow and improve fight after fight.

The armbar submission loss to Pettis will only add fuel to the fire. It is no mystery that “Showtime” Pettis has incredible outside striking and a nasty ground game, but I think Henderson’s wrestling and overall athleticism will be the difference makers in this fight. Remember, Josh only averages a coin flip with his takedown defense and that is where I see Benson controlling the fight.

 

A few years ago, back when Henderson was the reigning WEC lightweight champion, Thomson wasn‘t impressed with him. In fact, the former Strikeforce champ was quoted as saying that “Henderson doesn‘t belong in the top 10.”

Henderson would eventually go on to prove him wrong and become UFC champion, but do you think that, mentally, Henderson is motivated to make Thomson eat his words all these years later?

I don’t know that Henderson will necessarily be looking to shove “The Punk”’s words back into his own mouth. Ben will be coming into this fight determined to get a shot at the title belt again right away. Henderson’s nickname “Smooth” can be best seen as he maintains a calm demeanor competing at the highest levels. I honestly don’t think Henderson will allow Josh to get under his skin enough to allow emotion to be a factor in this fight.

 

Thomson is hot right now. He’s coming off a win at UFC on FOX 7, where he became the first man to stop Nate Diaz with strikes. However, this will be Henderson’s first fight since dropping the strap to Pettis. Who do you think will have their hand raised in the end?

I’ll call out Thomson’s suspect wrestling defense as his main weakness. I truly think that is where Benson will take control and dominate in the ground and pound. Have you seen the legs on the former UFC champ? Watch for the power double followed by some brutal striking from the top. I’m calling it right now: Henderson wins by TKO in the second round.

 

Regardless of who wins, do you see either Thomson or Henderson being able to stop Pettis? Henderson already lost to him twice. The first fight was razor close but Pettis put a stamp on him in the rematch. Would a third fight really be all that different?

I have all the respect in the world for “Showtime” Pettis and I personally love his flashy kicks and confident demeanor. I do however think that three out of five times, Henderson wins that fight. Pettis got his two wins out of the way up front, and now it’s time for Benson to put a W on the board over the current champ.

Closing the distance to nullify the laser-guided kicks of Pettis was what Jeremy Stephens did when he gave Pettis a run for his money, split decision back in 2011. Strong wrestling used to close the distance, coupled with a little bit tighter ground game will be the keys to victory when “Smooth” gets his rematch later this year.

Who else do you think has the best chance of beating Pettis in the lightweight division right now? 

Well, you’ve now heard me go on about how I think Benson takes the re-rematch, but let’s also not forget some of the other monsters at 155 lbs. Gilbert Melendez is only one or two good fights away from another title shot. He would pose a huge threat to Pettis due to his great wrestling, KO power and overall durability.

Or how about Khabib Nurmagomedov? This undefeated sambo champion has been wrecking people in the UFC and right now nobody even wants to fight him! You know you’re a badass when Nate Diaz doesn’t want to tangle with you.

Maybe we will get to see the winner of a possible Melendez/Nurmagomedov matchup gunning for the title next and I honestly think they both would have a great shot at dethroning the king.

 

The rest of the main card rounds out pretty nicely. In the co-main event, we have a heavyweight battle between Gabriel Gonzaga and Stipe Miocic. Who do you like in that one?

I think this will be Stipe’s toughest fight yet in the UFC and Gonzaga is not someone you want to take lightly. Just ask Mirko “Cro Cop.” Stipe has shown very good footwork and is surprisingly fast for a man weighing 240 lbs. If he can avoid the random high kick from Gonzaga and control position with his wrestling, I think Stipe can eek out another decision victory or maybe even pull off a ground-and-pound TKO late in the fight.

 

Which fight are you most looking forward to on this card, besides the main event?

I can’t wait to watch “Cowboy” Cerrone dismantle Adriano Martins with his superior Muay Thai. I think Cowboy is going to use his bullwhip leg kicks to pick apart Martins, long enough for Adriano to drop his hands leaving the opening for a spectacular high-kick finish.

I am also excited to watch the undercard matchup between Eddie Wineland and Yves Jabouin. These two guys are super exciting to watch and I’m looking forward to an explosive battle. I think Eddie has something to prove after his loss to Renan Barao and I don’t see this fight making it out of the first round.

 

For more of Roni Taylor’s MMA insight, follow her on Twitter @RoniTaylor

Mitch Ciccarelli is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report and co-host of Alchemist Radio. He is also a United States Airman. Follow him on Twitter @MitchCiccarelli and follow @AlchemistRadio.

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UFC on Fox 10: Predicting the Fight Night Bonus Winners

UFC on Fox 10 is the first UFC on Fox fight card without a title fight since August 2012, but it isn’t lacking notable competitors. Every bout on the main card will feature at least one top-10 fighter across multiple divisions.
Most notably, the event …

UFC on Fox 10 is the first UFC on Fox fight card without a title fight since August 2012, but it isn’t lacking notable competitors. Every bout on the main card will feature at least one top-10 fighter across multiple divisions.

Most notably, the event will feature a lightweight contest between former champion Benson Henderson and Strikeforce veteran Josh Thomson. While Henderson lost his belt to Anthony Pettis the last time he appeared, Thomson emerged as a serious title threat by stopping Nate Diaz in his UFC return.

With several other intriguing matchups also scheduled, competition for performance bonuses will be vicious, but here are the likeliest winners heading into UFC on Fox 10.

 

Fight of the Night

Prediction: Benson Henderson vs. Josh Thomson

Main events are always at an advantage when it comes to fight night bonuses. Not only are they the matchups that get the most attention, but they are freshest in the minds of UFC President Dana White and the decision-makers following fight cards.

With that edge in hand, Henderson and Thomson should be considered heavy favorites to walk away with Fight of the Night honors.

Having gone the distance in seven of his eight UFC bouts, Henderson already has two Fight of the Night bonuses under his belt. A third could be on the way as long as he pushes the pace against Thomson and doesn’t get caught with anything early on.

Other Candidates: Darren Elkins vs. Jeremy Stephens, Sergio Pettis vs. Alex Caceres, Eddie Wineland vs. Yves Jabouin

 

Knockout of the Night

Prediction: Stipe Miocic

There is a ton of knockout potential on this fight card.

While many different fighters could walk away with the bonus, heavyweights often have to be favored due to the raw power they generate in their strikes. Chances are a heavyweight knockout is going to appear more devastating than a bantamweight knockout that occurs on the same fight card.

Already the owner of one Knockout of the Night award, Stipe Miocic has a good chance to pick up a second on Saturday. The American’s blend of wrestling and boxing skill makes him a strong bet to avoid being dragged down by jiu-jitsu ace Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC on Fox 10.

Other Candidates: Donald Cerrone, Jeremy Stephens, Eddie Wineland

 

Submission of the Night

Prediction: Sergio Pettis

Submissions are where the preliminary card fighters will have a chance to shine.

The eight main card fighters at UFC on Fox 10 have combined for only four UFC submission losses, so it’s unlikely many competitors will be tapping once the broadcast goes to network television. 

For rising talents like Sergio Pettis, the door will be open. Meeting Alex Caceres, who has been submitted twice in his three years competing under the UFC banner, the younger brother of lightweight champion Anthony Pettis has a good shot of earning his first fight night bonus this weekend. 

Other Candidates: Yaotzin Meza, Mike Rio, Nikita Krylov

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UFC on Fox 10: Henderson vs. Thomson Fight Card Betting Odds and Predictions

The UFC returns to Fox on Saturday night with a familiar name: former lightweight champion Benson Henderson, who has made three appearances on the network fight cards since they began in 2011. Of course, his first was an untelevised bout against Clay G…

The UFC returns to Fox on Saturday night with a familiar name: former lightweight champion Benson Henderson, who has made three appearances on the network fight cards since they began in 2011. Of course, his first was an untelevised bout against Clay Guida, but that was an important one all the same; it’s the fight that secured his title shot against Frankie Edgar.

You know the rest of the story. Henderson would beat Edgar, then beat him again, then beat Nathan Diaz and Gilbert Melendez and still never receive the respect he deserved. This is likely because, with the exception of beating the brakes off Diaz, Henderson’s bouts were all close. And then, when the title reign came to an end, it came at the hands of the man who ended his World Extreme Cagefighting run in glorious fashion: Anthony Pettis.

So this is Henderson’s rebound fight, and it’s a tough out. But we’re getting ahead of ourselves.

As always, any numbers you find in my betting preview are generously provided by Reed Kuhn from Fightnomics.

Let’s get this preview train rolling.

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Dropping Knowledge: Daniel Cormier Breaks Down Card for UFC on Fox 10

The team of analysts for the UFC on Fox Sports 1 and Fox broadcasts has been providing the most in-depth coverage that mixed martial arts has seen in its 20 years of existence.
With a collection of seasoned fight veterans and a handful of well-versed h…

The team of analysts for the UFC on Fox Sports 1 and Fox broadcasts has been providing the most in-depth coverage that mixed martial arts has seen in its 20 years of existence.

With a collection of seasoned fight veterans and a handful of well-versed hosts at the helm, the people working the pre– and post-fight shows for the UFC have consistently raised the bar.

For the next installment of the series, former heavyweight-turned-light-heavyweight title contender Daniel Cormier dropped in to share his thoughts on Saturday’s card for UFC on Fox 10 in Chicago. The former Olympian has proved to be one of the UFC’s brightest new stars, as he’s made a seamless transition from the Strikeforce cage to the Octagon.

The Louisiana native defeated former two-time champion Frank Mir and one-punch knockout artist Roy Nelson, respectively, before making the decision to drop down into 205-pound waters to chase his first UFC title.

“D.C.” will square off with former titleholder Rashad Evans next month at UFC 170, but before he scraps it out with his good friend “Suga,” the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix winner returned to this column to wreck a little more shop.

Cormier has quickly become one of the best analysts on the Fox Sports 1 team and has given some seasoned vets a run for their money. 

Here is what Cormier had to say about the card for UFC on Fox 10.

Let’s start with the main event between Benson Henderson and Josh Thomson. You are very familiar with Thomson having trained with him a long time, but I’m sure you’ve done your homework on Henderson as well. They both have tremendously well-rounded skill sets, and what do you think are the keys to victory for each fighter on Saturday?

The biggest thing for Thomson is to use his feet. He needs to be very active like he was in the fight with [Nate] Diaz. He can’t stand still because Benson is a big guy and Josh normally doesn’t do very well against big wrestlers. He’s struggled against guys who can grab him, bear hug him, throw him down and hold him there. He needs to employ the same strategy he did against Diaz where he was moving nonstop. He would hit him then move, and Diaz was almost chasing Josh. But that’s OK because Josh’s striking is better from a technical standpoint and he’s tighter with his punches. He’s also fought a lot of five-round fights just as Benson has.

For Benson Henderson, he needs to move forward and get off to a quick start. In some of his past fights, he tends to eke into them. If he does that, Josh can start to get on a roll and he doesn’t want that because it kind of snowballs. Henderson will want to start early, get in his face and put a lot of pressure on him. Henderson needs to take the fight right to him and basically say, “I’m the guy who held the UFC championship and defended it three times. I’m supposed to beat you and win this fight. I’m going to show you why I’m picked to beat you.” If he does that, it will go a very long way in the picture that is going to be painted at the end of this fight because it will be Benson’s fight.

 

You just brought up the lightweight title. Your AKA teammate was supposed to get his shot against Anthony Pettis back at UFC on Fox 9 in December, but “Showtime” became injured and was forced to withdraw. Title opportunities in the UFC are coveted, but rather than wait around, Thomson decided to get back to work. Do you think a move like this shows just how game a fighter the former Strikeforce champion is?

I think to find how game Josh Thomson is, you just go back to his three fights with Gilbert Melendez. You can look at all his fights in Strikeforce or just look at the portrait of his career. You can ignore all the things he said in the media about a terrible training camp and things not going to plan. When Thomson steps into the cage—every time he steps into the cage—this is a guy who goes out there and competes at the highest level. He’s a former Strikeforce champion. He was one of the top fighters in the UFC lightweight division before they decided to scrap the weight class all those years ago. 

Also, Josh Thomson has now spent more time in his fight career than his life outside of fighting. He spent 17 years of his life not being a fighter, but he’s been fighting for 18 years now. He’s more of a fighter than he is a regular person. That’s crazy.

There are a lot of rumors floating and nothing is official, but do you think the winner of this fight will get the next shot at Pettis?

This is where it becomes tricky. Dana [White] said because of the way Henderson lost to Pettis in their last fight, it will be very hard to tell people why these two guys are fighting for a championship again. So Benson Henderson’s situation is a little tricky. He needs someone to beat Pettis in order to get another championship fight.

Thomson, on the other hand, didn’t get his title fight. If he wins this fight, he would have beat Benson Henderson, the former champion, after losing out on his title shot in his last fight. He also beat Diaz, who challenged for the belt when Henderson had the title. With a win, Thomson will have the clearest claim to a title shot of any weight class in the UFC.

 

Moving onto the big boys. Gabriel Gonzaga will fight Stipe Miocic in the co-main event. This is a strange situation because Gonzaga has looked better than he ever has and Miocic is a unique heavyweight who moves very well with his footwork. Do you think Miocic‘s footwork will be the difference, or do you see “Napao’s” ground game being his definitive advantage in this fight?

This is one of those situations where you have a smaller, more active heavyweight against a true heavyweight like Gonzaga. He has turned the corner because his commitment has changed in this sport. I’ve heard from people who have trained with him that he hasn’t always trained all that hard. People who know him have told me he wasn’t training very hard, but now he does. 

That being said, if Stipe Miocic shows up for this fight like he did against Roy Nelson, Miocic is walking away with this fight. If Gonzaga is able to make this a dirty fight, he’ll be in a great position to win. If Gonzaga leans on him and takes him down the way [Stefan] Struve did, it is going to be a much different fight. If Gonzaga is successful with putting him up against the cage and wearing him down, Miocic will get tired, and that will give Gonzaga more opportunities. Miocic will be able to fight him for 15 minutes if it’s just a boxing match. Gonzaga needs to find a way to get this fight to the ground and just whale on him. He needs to put his weight on him at all, Miocic is going to box him up because his footwork is just too good.

We spoke to Gonzaga this week, and he said he has put a lot of work into his striking. He acknowledged stopping Miocic‘s footwork is going to be tough, but Gonzaga said he needs to cut him off at angles rather than just following him. It also has the potential to give Gonzaga a lot of problems. Do you think it will cost him the fight if he can’t cut Miocic off?

Stipe Miocic is the smaller of the two, and he’s so fast. If Gonzaga follows him, that’s trouble because that is exactly what Roy Nelson did at UFC 161. Watch the fight. When you break these fights down, watch that fight and look at how Nelson moved in that fight. Every time Miocic would move and give him an angle, Nelson would have to reposition both of his feet to go in the direction of the angle because he doesn’t have the ability to change angles as quick as Stipe did. And that is what could happen against Gonzaga.

He is a big heavyweight, and big heavyweights tend to follow. They don’t really get on their feet and move. They aren’t cutting angles, boxing and moving as fast as a guy like Stipe Miocic

 

I’m counting on you for this one, D.C. No one else seems to give me any credit on this, but I’ve discovered a stigma surrounding Gabriel Gonzaga. If you look at his record, the guys he has lost to have all gone on to some form of title contention or contender’s status. The only one who hasn’t is Brendan Schaub, and his journey hasn’t fully developed. On the other hand, the guys Gonzaga defeats all fall back into some form of irrelevance. This being said, can you see this stigma that beating Gonzaga makes you the real deal, and a loss means you need more time to reach the top tier?

The thing about Miocic is that he has plenty of time, but I don’t think we are at that point yet. But if the facts show that is how it has been, then that’s how it’s been. Gonzaga is a guy who will introduce you to that next level. Say you are a guy who is teetering on the line, then you beat Gonzaga and it pushes you into the next level. I could possibly see that stigma with him. It may be the case, but Miocic is so young, he has plenty of time, regardless of what happens.

The problem comes in when we talk about these contenders. You have to ask are they trying to just be contenders, or are they guys who could actually hold the belt? When you look at the landscape and then compare them to Cain Velasquez, there is no reason to really think—based on what we have seen—that these guys are going to be able to challenge him. Save for him getting caught in a submission by [Fabricio] Werdum or getting caught with another knockout punch the way he did against Junior dos Santos—which could happen because we are talking about heavyweights—it is just very hard to look at these guys as true title contenders. Velasquez just seems so far ahead of these guys right now.

There is another exciting lightweight scrap on this card between Donald Cerrone and Adriano Martins. How important is this fight for “Cowboy” and how huge is this opportunity for a fighter on the rise like Martins?

It is a huge opportunity for Martins. This is one of those situations that could push him into the higher level of what is already a stacked division to begin with. Donald Cerrone has put together impressive winning streaks before. For him, this is par for the course. He goes on these long winning streaks, gets to the top of the division, then gets knocked back down. He got knocked out by Pettis. He got beat by Diaz. But then he’ll go back down and put together these long winning streaks. It is up to Martins now to actually change that and not allow him to move back up into the upper echelon of the division.

Martins needs to make this his turn. It will be a very difficult fight if Cerrone shows up the way he did against Evan Dunham in his last outing. It will be a very difficult fight for Martins. Then again, we never really know which Cerrone is going to show up on fight night. It’s a very dangerous fight for Cerrone because no one knows who Martins is. Huge opportunity if he can win this fight.

 

While we’ve covered the big names on the card, are there any fighters or a particular bout you’ve come across in your research you think fans should keep an eye on?

People need to be watching Sergio Pettis. This is a kid that goes out there and does some amazing things just like his brother. There is also a heavyweight fight between Nikita Krylov and Walt Harris I think will be interesting. Krylov got tired in his last fight against Soa Palelei but was doing very good before he gassed. He has some good stand-up skills. He will be fighting Walt Harris, who is a guy who has finished nearly all of his fights. These are two young heavyweights who always come to fight, and it should be a great way to kick off the preliminary portion of the card.

 

Duane Finley is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. All quotes are obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise.

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UFC on Fox 10: Who’s on the Hot Seat?

Headlined by lightweight contenders Benson Henderson and Josh Thomson, UFC on Fox 10 will bring the world’s top MMA promotion back to Chicago on Saturday.
With only former 155-pound champion Henderson coming off of a loss, all the fighters featured on…

Headlined by lightweight contenders Benson Henderson and Josh Thomson, UFC on Fox 10 will bring the world’s top MMA promotion back to Chicago on Saturday.

With only former 155-pound champion Henderson coming off of a loss, all the fighters featured on the main card should have strong holds on their UFC roster spots; however, a few fighters appearing on the prelims could be released should they come up empty this weekend.

As another UFC event approaches, here are the fighters who may be battling for their jobs.

 

Junior Hernandez

In September, Junior Hernandez made his UFC debut against Brazilian prospect Lucas Martins.

Less than two minutes in, Hernandez was knocked down and submitted. It was the first time the 27-year-old has been finished in his career spanning 18 fights.

While he’s still a promising 135-pounder, Hernandez can’t afford to slip to 0-2 inside the Octagon. Losing to Hugo Viana at UFC on Fox 10 would likely cost him his position on the UFC roster.

Viana, on the other hand, is probably safe from being released despite also coming off a loss, as he won his prior two fights inside the Octagon.

 

Mike Rio

A contestant on The Ultimate Fighter 15, Mike Rio earned a long-term spot on the UFC roster with a victory over John Cofer in his official debut with the promotion.

Things have gone downhill for “The Wolverine” since then.

In 2013, Rio suffered two first-round submission losses in bouts with Francisco Trinaldo and Tony Ferguson. Making it three defeats in a row against Daron Cruickshank on Saturday would almost surely earn Rio his walking papers.

With three wins in five UFC appearances, and not coming off of consecutive setbacks, Cruickshank has some more wiggle room.

 

Walt Harris and Nikita Krylov

There is only one true loser-leaves-town matchup heading into the UFC on Fox 10 fight card.

Fittingly, heavyweights Walt Harris and Nikita Krylov have also been relegated to the lone Fight Pass-aired prelim at UFC on Fox 10. A message has been sent to both men, and only one is likely to maintain their UFC roster spot through the weekend.

Harris made his UFC debut in November and was shut down by the wrestling of Jared Rosholt after lacking urgency when he did have the opportunity to stand. Also coming off of a lackluster first impression, Krylov was stopped in the third round of his matchup against Soa Palelei.

Will the young Russian or former basketball player come out on top? We’ll find out on Saturday.

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