UFC on Fox 5: Why You Should Bet on Shogun Rua and BJ Penn

In what is being regarded as the latest example of “Olde School” vs. “New Skool,” we have two hotly anticipated bouts on UFC on Fox 5 on Saturday night between former champions who have fallen on hard times and top prospects in their divisions. BJ Pen…

In what is being regarded as the latest example of “Olde School” vs. “New Skool,” we have two hotly anticipated bouts on UFC on Fox 5 on Saturday night between former champions who have fallen on hard times and top prospects in their divisions. BJ Penn faces Rory MacDonald, followed by Mauricio “Shogun” Rua squaring off against Alexander Gustafsson.

The thing is, the old favorites are huge underdogs for very little reason and are in perfect position to remind folks why they are the ones who have touched UFC gold.

Their opponents are still just kids.

The biggest reason for their underdog status, let’s be honest, are the questions about cardio. Penn has a very, very long history of fizzling while fighting at 170 pounds. At lightweight, he is a monster with no equal. At welterweight, though, essentially all of his fights boil down to strong starts that limp to a decision. This, after all, is precisely what happened when he fought both Nick Diaz and Jon Fitch.

Shogun’s struggles are far more recent. In his latest fight, a headline affair with Brandon Vera, Shogun gassed and struggled against his supposed-to-be-entirely-undeserving opponent. He would score a fourth-round knockout against Vera, but this was clearly not the Shogun of old.

And Brandon Vera is clearly no Alexander Gustafsson.

Obviously, saying it is entirely about the cardio of the older fighters is a disservice to Rory MacDonald and Alexander Gustafsson. Both fighters have been as good as can be reasonably expected, with MacDonald sitting on a 4-1 UFC record and Gustafsson sitting at 6-1. They both have big wins over serious competition, and their lone losses have been to top 10 fighters (Carlos Condit and Phil Davis, respectively).

That said, there is no getting around the fact that the younger fighters have terrible matchups against these older guys. Rory MacDonald has gotten by to this point by outmuscling and grounding-and-pounding opponents. Penn’s speed, unquestionably superior striking and legendary takedown defense are likely insurmountable for MacDonald.

Meanwhile, there is not a fan who has seen Shogun fight who does not know how amazing his striking is. He knocked out Lyoto Machida, one of the best pure strikers in MMA today, and has other knockouts over Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Alistair Overeem and Cyrille Diabate.

Gustafsson has strong stand-up but is simply not in Rua‘s league. He has been working on his wrestling for this fight, but as we saw in Matt Mitrione vs. Cheick Kongo, it takes far longer than six months to develop wrestling skills to overcome veteran mixed martial artists.

While the questions about cardio are undeniably there, both Penn and Rua have been actively showing off how in-shape they are for Saturday’s event. Just looking at their musculature in comparison to their recent fights, you can see abs and traps you haven’t seen in a long while.

At the very least, it shows that they are completely in-shape for these fights, which we have not seen from either of these fighters in a long while.

To top it all off, something that fans often need to be reminded of is that even though Rua and Penn have been around the sport for a long time, they are not really that old. BJ Penn is 33 years old, while Shogun is just 31. They are much younger than fighters like Anderson Silva, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Dan Henderson.

Mixed martial arts is still a sport where anything can happen, but as we have seen time and time again, experience is a major factor in the cage.

It isn’t everything, but we know how great Penn and Rua are capable of being. When it comes to betting, in this case, I’m putting my money down on what we know over what we expect.

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UFC on FOX 5: Rory MacDonald vs. BJ Penn: How Penn Can Defeat MacDonald

The cards are stacked against B.J. Penn tonight. Not only has the Hawaiian been on the shelf for over a year, he’s returning from a planned retirement. “The Prodigy” didn’t intend on competing professionally again following his …

The cards are stacked against B.J. Penn tonight. Not only has the Hawaiian been on the shelf for over a year, he’s returning from a planned retirement. “The Prodigy” didn’t intend on competing professionally again following his loss to Nick Diaz at UFC 137, and we have no idea what he’s spent the majority of his away time doing.

Rory MacDonald managed to lure B.J. out of the realm of inactivity with his mouth and premature claims of greatness. Penn’s decision to return to MMA indicates that he’s obviously been affected by the chatter. Tonight we’ll see just how far Rory MacDonald was able to burrow himself under Penn’s skin.

However, in addition to the time away from competition and the fielding of constant trash talk, Penn finds himself in quite a bind, for a number of different reasons. He’s smaller than “Ares,” doesn’t boast the wrestling pedigree possessed by the youngster and doesn’t typically do well with men aggressive enough to plant him on his back and hurl leather at his face.

MacDonald will indeed force this fight to the canvas at some point, and even B.J. Penn will have some issues dealing with the Canadian’s devastating ground-and-pound.

If the former two-division champ hopes to derail the surging train known as Rory MacDonald, he’s got to keep this fight upright as long as possible. Penn has one of the best chins in the business, and it’s very conceivable that he can absorb MacDonald’s punches all night long if this fight turns into a kickboxing match for three rounds. He also has enough power in his fists to put the youngster away. If Condit was able to rattle Rory’s brain with his fists, B.J. Penn can manage the same.

There’s always the chance of a wild scramble on the mat, which could enable B.J. to find himself affixed to the back of MacDonald, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. Penn’s fists will probably be his greatest weapon.

In the end, it may not be the fistic fury of Penn or his ability to sink rear-naked chokes like childhood paper boats that matters most. Conditioning may be the most significant X-factor in this fight.

If Penn is in the shape in which he claims to be, he shouldn’t have issues going to war with Rory for three rounds. If he stuffs the takedown attempts of “Ares” early and often, he’ll throw Rory off of his game. And while MacDonald has a significant size advantage, he’s not quite as gritty as Penn, and that powerful jab the Hawaiian owns will become a constant threat.

Penn sets up one-hitter-quitters with that jab, and if Rory begins to doubt himself for a moment and fails to take this fight to the canvas, a B.J. Penn knockout is very plausible. You just don’t toss fists at a brick wall that hits back.

B.J. Penn has a solid chance of returning to the spotlight tonight. If he’s going to make that happen, however, he’d better prevent Rory MacDonald from securing the takedown and turning his face into raw hamburger. “The Prodigy” is going to need to follow the old Chuck Liddell game plan to upset the rising star: sprawl and brawl B.J., sprawl and brawl brah!

 

Follow Matt Molgaard on Twitter.

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UFC on FOX 5: Benson Henderson vs Nate Diaz: How Diaz Can Defeat Henderson

For Nate Diaz, overcoming the mobility and versatility of Benson Henderson will be a daunting task.The champion moves quite well, packs a wallop in his punch and has some of the best submission defense in the division. The guy is remarkably difficult t…

For Nate Diaz, overcoming the mobility and versatility of Benson Henderson will be a daunting task.

The champion moves quite well, packs a wallop in his punch and has some of the best submission defense in the division. The guy is remarkably difficult to finish.

Stopping Henderson’s takedowns is crucial if Diaz hopes to keep himself in this fight. Henderson will likely look to utilize a stick-and-move approach until he eats a shot that disrupts his comfort, at which point the wrestling will likely come into play.

Can the champion out-wrestle the challenger? You bet he can.

Does the champion really want to tangle with Diaz on the mat? I’m not wholly convinced that’s the case. I do however, feel Henderson will look to rack up big points early, and I suspect he’ll do so by shooting takedowns in the latter portions of each round after doing his best job of mimicking Pernell Whitaker’s fluid movement.

Stick-and-move for the bulk of each round, build a point advantage and seal the deal with a takedown to close each frame. That’s a solid plan of attack and “Bendo” is an intelligent fighter who will do what it takes to hold onto UFC brass.

But he’s got himself a problem, and that problem comes in the form of a man who was born to fight. Nate Diaz is a finisher and he’s really come into his own over the last few years.

In order for Nate Diaz to be the first Diaz brother to seize gold in the octagon, he’s going to have to keep his jab in Henderson’s face from the beginning of the bout to the bitter end—which he can do.

If Nate Diaz moves forward and remains wary of Henderson’s takedowns, he can capitalize on his six-inch reach advantage and abuse Henderson. It’s unlikely he’ll put the current champion away with strikes alone, however. Nate’s got to put a pugilistic beating on Ben, and he’s got to be constant in his offensive attack, never letting Henderson settle in and find his range. If he can do that he can create cracks in the psyche of the champion and force the mistakes he’ll need to leap on a late submission.

Nate Diaz isn’t likely to win a unanimous decision over Benson Henderson. His best bet is to be aggressive from the outset, be wary of the takedowns and when a hole makes itself known, leap in and work for a submission finish.

Look for the triangle choke to be a threat Henderson has difficulty defending. Just don’t expect an early finish: he’s too resilient for that. Nate’s got to force Henderson to question himself. In those fleeting moments of doubt, windows will open and Nate Diaz is perfectly capable of snaking his way right through those confined spaces and putting an end to Henderson’s reign as champion.

 

Follow Matt Molgaard on Twitter.     

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The Real Main Event: Why BJ Penn Is the Fighter Who Matters Most at UFC on Fox 5

When UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson stepped to the scales in Seattle the day before the UFC’s fifth event on Fox, the reaction from the fans was best described as “polite.”It wasn’t an embarrassing amount of applause, nor was it the reaction…

When UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson stepped to the scales in Seattle the day before the UFC’s fifth event on Fox, the reaction from the fans was best described as “polite.”

It wasn’t an embarrassing amount of applause, nor was it the reaction of fans to a star. That’s a sound all too lacking at UFC events around the country these days.

We heard that kind of response for Jon Jones in Atlanta at UFC 145, the kind of anxious buzz of a crowd that knows they are seeing something, and someone, special.

Magnify it by 10 for appearances by Chael Sonnen and Anderson Silva at UFC 148 in Las Vegas. For that bout, the audience was alive, attuned to both fighters’ every move and facial expression.

And we felt it, a taste of it, when BJ Penn made his appearance in Seattle. The title belt he carries may signify that Henderson is the top dog in his weight class, but to UFC fans, the only lightweight that has ever mattered is BJ Penn.

Penn burst onto the scene at the same time as UFC owners Lorenzo Fertitta and Dana White. And from the very beginning, fans have known he was something special.

When his bout with Joey Gilbert was buried on the preliminaries, fans nearly had a coronary. He may have been a 22-year-old from Hilo, Hawaii, without a single fight under his belt, but he was a 22-year-old who mattered.

His credentials made him a legend before he ever stepped in the cage. Simply put, he was the best American ever to put on a gi, compete in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and become a legitimate world champion in that sport.

Combined with the brazen praise from then-coach Frank Shamrock, a UFC legend who told the world that Penn, sight unseen, was already the top fighter in the business, Penn’s first fight was one of the most anticipated Octagon debuts in years.

For fans, it’s been a love affair that has never waned. Even as Penn has, by his own admission, not lived up to his own abilities on too many occasions, fans never stopped caring.

“I saw an article recently that talked about how I still hold court with the fans,” Penn told Bleacher Report’s Duane Finley. “All these big names and everybody still get excited about me. People getting excited to hear about my training or what I’m doing; that is really amazing to me.

“I always ask my family and my friends, ‘Why do the fans like me so much? I’m the biggest f-up there is.’ Is it because I represent the average man? Is it because I’m a fat guy trying to go out there and give it his best shot like everybody else? I don’t know exactly what it is but I’ll tell you right now it blows me away. I don’t understand it, but I definitely appreciate and love my fans.”

When he returned to the UFC in 2006 and made his ascension to the lightweight throne, fans were all in. Penn became the first, and as yet only, fighter below 170 pounds in UFC history to draw money on pay-per-view.

When it comes to lightweights (even when they’re competing at 170 as Penn will be against rising star Rory MacDonald), BJ remains the sport’s top player, whether or not he holds a title belt.

Fans just like to watch the guy fight, maybe because it’s so crystal clear how much he loves what he does. And if they tune in to Fox in droves, reversing a disturbing decline in television ratings, it will be because of Penn’s name on the marque.

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BJ Penn: Tribute to the Greatest Lightweight of All Time

Jay Dee Penn, better known as BJ, is the greatest Lightweight in MMA history. Thought to be the fastest Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner to reach black belt status, BJ earned the name “The Prodigy.” And he didn’t disappoint. He became…

Jay Dee Penn, better known as BJ, is the greatest Lightweight in MMA history. Thought to be the fastest Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner to reach black belt status, BJ earned the name “The Prodigy.” And he didn’t disappoint. He became the first non-Brazilian to win the World Jiu-Jitsu Championship in the black belt category.

After impressing in Brazil, BJ became one of the few fighters to make his MMA debut in the UFC.  He finished his first three opponents via KO/TKO before losing a razor sharp decision against Lightweight Champion Jens Pulver. BJ would post a record of 6-1-1 before challenging himself and moving up to Welterweight where he was usually always outsized.

After winning the Lightweight Championship in the 2008 beatdown of the year, BJ held on to the title for two and a half years. BJ won four straight lightweight championship fights by finish, the most in lightweight history.

Style

BJ Penn could very well be the most gifted BJJ practitioner of all Mixed Martial Arts. With six submission victories, five by rear naked choke, if you take him down chances are you’ll find out why he’s “The Prodigy.” And taking him down was no easy task.

Known for incredible dexterity and balance, BJ stuffed an astonishing 77 percent of takedowns against him. So usually the strategy would be to keep him in standing exchanges, right? Wrong.

At one time BJ was known to have the best boxing in all of MMA. His solid jab and devastating right cross added a new dimension for fighters who thought of Penn as just a great ground fighter.

His 70-inch reach and 52 percent striking accuracy kept his opponents at bay. Then once he saw an opening, he would strike with a well-placed flying knee or high kick to end the fight.

Couple that with the greatest chin in MMA history and you have a dangerous guy. BJ could take powerful shots to the chin, and he has never been knocked down.

Signature moment

In one of the most replayed moments of MMA, BJ Penn delivered a bloody beating to incumbent champion Joe “Daddy” Stevenson. After locking in his patented rear naked choke and winning the Championship, BJ licked the blood off of his gloves. Now that moment is etched into the mind of anybody who’s seen it.

Warrior Mentality

BJ Penn embodies what the fighter mentality should be. Bar none. Every time GSP expresses concern over Anderson Silva’s size advantage, I think about him at 190+ pounds taking on a 168-pound Penn. Twice.

BJ Penn is of the “any time, any place, any weight” school of thought. Even though he posted a 11-3-1 record in Lightweight, he challenged himself by fighting at multiple weights. He moved up to welterweight and faced GSP, then to Middleweight to face Rodrigo Gracie, then fought a 220-pound Lyoto Machida while weighing 191.

That is what fighting is all about. That warrior spirit and courage to fight whoever, whenever.

When questioned about the possibility of a GSP vs Anderson Silva fight, BJ said it like only he could. “We all know what BJ Penn would do.”

You’re right, BJ. We do know. And another thing we know is that you’re the greatest lightweight of all time.

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UFC on Fox 5 Live Results and Play by Play from Cageside

SEATTLE — If I can for a moment, I’d like to tell you that I’m so stoked that the UFC on Fox 5 card is finally here. After a year that seems to have been cursed, we’re finally getting a main card that hasn’t been affected by injuries. That alone …

SEATTLE — If I can for a moment, I’d like to tell you that I’m so stoked that the UFC on Fox 5 card is finally here. After a year that seems to have been cursed, we’re finally getting a main card that hasn’t been affected by injuries. That alone is quite a feat. 

What makes this event even better is that it’s arguably the best main card of the year. With a lightweight title fight at the top of the card and other fights with serious divisional implications, this is the can’t-miss event that everyone has been yearning for the whole year. 

Matthew Roth of Bleacher Report will be providing play by play from cage side. Please join him for an amazing night of fights. 

 

Main Card on Fox

Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Alexander Gustafsson
Rory MacDonald vs. BJ Penn
Mike Swick vs. Matt Brown

 

Preliminary Card on FX

Yves Edwards vs. Jeremy Stephens
Raphael Assuncao vs. Mike Easton
Ramsey Nijem vs. Joe Proctor
Daron Cruickshank vs. Henry Martinez
Abel Trujillo vs. Marcus LeVesseur
Dennis Siver vs. Nam Phan


Preliminary Card on Facebook

Scott Jorgensen vs. John Albert

 

UFC on Fox 5 Start Times

Prelims on Facebook: 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT
Prelims on FX: 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT
Main Card on Fox: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT 

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