Tag: UFC on Fuel TV 4 Analysis

UFC on Fuel TV 4 – MMAFix Staff Picks

Most of the staff is still recovering from UFC 148 so for UFC on Fuel TV 4, only Ryan and I will bringing you picks. But after his 6-0 performance on Saturday, who else’s picks.

Most of the staff is still recovering from UFC 148 so for UFC on Fuel TV 4, only Ryan and I will bringing you picks. But after his 6-0 performance on Saturday, who else’s picks do you really need?


Chris Weidman (-145) vs. Mark Munoz (+115)
Ryan: No clue why Weidman is the favorite to win. Munoz has faced higher level opponents and he looked more impressive than Weidman when you compare both their fights against Demian Maia. Munoz will shrug off Weidman’s submission attempts and control him on the ground. Munoz by TKO via GNP. Winner: Munoz

Alan: I’m with Ryan here. I don’t expect a finish but I don’t see why Weidman is the favorite. And not only is he the favorite, but the line has moved more in his favor since the end of last week, which means people are betting Weidman. I don’t understand it. Two great wrestlers usually equals a striking match and Munoz has a pretty clear advantage there. What am I missing? Winner: Munoz


James Te Huna vs. Joey Beltran
Ryan: Te-Huna is coming off 2 impressive knockout wins, while Beltran lost his last 2 fights in the octagon. Te-Huna is better than Beltran in every aspect of the game. Te-Huna by KO. Winner: Te Huna

Alan: This is going to be a slugfest and I’m taking Te Huna as well. Beltran has a brick chin but Te Huna has a brick fist so as long as he lands first, he should get a quick TKO victory. Winner: Te Huna


Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson
Ryan: As long as Simpson isn’t drained by his first weight cut to 170lbs (which he shouldn’t because he his a veteran wrestler), he should have no problem beating Robertson. Simpson is a better wrestler and a more powerful striker. Simpson by TKO. Winner: Simpson

Alan: What we have here is a great minds think alike type situation. The biggest challenge for Simpson in this fight will be the weight cut. As long as he doesn’t gas, he should win this one easily. No disrespect to Robertson but Simpson went from a huge underdog to a huge favorite when Robertson was announced to replace Jon Fitch. Winner: Simpson


Karlos Vemola vs. Francis Carmont
Ryan: Vemola is a beast at 185lbs. He will have no problem out wrestling Carmont and look to take his back. If Vemola can’t sink in the RNC he will finish the fight by GNP. Winner: Vemola

Alan: We agree again. I don’t think the gap is as big between these two and Vemola could be in trouble if he decides to stand and trade but as long as he looks to get the takedown and control Carmont on the mat, he should be able to earn the victory. Winner: Vemola


T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee
Ryan: Lee is a well rounded fighter, but Dillashaw will sooner or later take Lee down and submit him (most likely with a RNC). Winner: Dillashaw

Alan: I don’t think this one will be close. Dillashaw is constantly improving training at Team Alpha Male and Lee was supposed to be a feeder for Kid Yamamoto. Dillashaw did everything but finish Walel Watson in his last fight and hopefully he can take that next step against Lee. Winner: Dillashaw


Anthony Njokuani vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
Ryan: Njokuani has trouble with good ground fighters. On top of that, Rafael dos Anjos has developed some excellent striking. Rafael dos Anjos by submission. Winner: Dos Anjos

Alan: We finally disagree! But after Ryan’s perfect night, I don’t feel great about it. I don’t think Dos Anjos has the wrestling to get Njokuani down and keep him down. Danny Castillo struggled to keep him down and I don’t think Dos Anjos has that kind of wrestling. I expect Njokuani to keep this fight mostly on the feet and strike his way to victory. Winner: Njokuani

UFC on Fuel TV 4 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part 1

Chris Weidman vs. Mark Munoz The headliner at UFC on Fuel TV 4 is a matchup of up and coming middleweights. After Anderson Silva’s dominant performance at UFC 148, fans are looking for someone who.

Chris Weidman vs. Mark Munoz

The headliner at UFC on Fuel TV 4 is a matchup of up and coming middleweights. After Anderson Silva’s dominant performance at UFC 148, fans are looking for someone who might be able to challenge him in the future and this fight features two of the brighter young prospects in the division. Both come from a highly decorated wrestling background as two time All-Americans with Munoz even capturing a national championship.

Munoz had his first professional MMA fight in the summer of 2007 and is 12-2 in his career. He has seven wins and two losses in his UFC career. One was in his first UFC appearance against Matt Hamill and the other was against perennial contender Yushin Okami. Since the loss to Okami, he has reeled off four straight victories including his last two appearances against Demian Maia and Chris Leben. As expected, his main asset in the cage is his wrestling but he is not a prototypical decision grinder like many of the former collegiate wrestlers. He has devastating power in his hands and has shown some of the fiercest ground and pound in all of MMA. He is one of the few fighters who has one punch knock out power on the ground as well as on the feet.

Weidman is less experienced than Munoz having made his debut in February of 2009 and having only eight professional fights thus far in his career. However, he has won all eight of those fights. His last four victories have come in the UFC with the last two coming against Tom Lawlor and Demian Maia. His most recent performance against Maia was lackluster at best, which could have been due to accepting the fight on late notice and struggling with the weight cut. Regardless of the reasons for the performance, he will need to improve greatly if he wants to continue his undefeated streak. Like Munoz, his game is predicated on wrestling but he seems to prefer submissions to ground and pound when looking to finish.

When two high caliber wrestlers meet in the octagon, the result is usually a less than technical kickboxing match. Based on previous performance, Munoz is the better striker but high level athletes like Weidman tend to grow exponentially between fights early in their careers so I expect him to show a marked improvement in his striking. That said, Munoz should still have the advantage. The key to this fight will be who, if anyone, can land takedowns. Munoz will more than likely look to use his wrestling defensively and hope to exploit a striking advantage. But if the striking is close, he may look for the takedown. Weidman will be the more likely fighter to try to engage in a wrestling match as earning top position would give him the opportunity to work his submission game.

Weidman is the favorite for this fight at -135 with Munoz coming in at +115. I know Weidman is the new hot prospect with his undefeated record but I don’t quite understand that line. We’ve seen these types of fights between top level wrestlers before and they almost always turn into striking matches. And based on what we’ve seen so far, Munoz has an advantage in that category. Expect to see these two stand for most of the fight and if that’s the case, Munoz should be able to oustrike his opponent. But if Weidman can get a few takedowns and control from the top position, he has the submission skills to finish the fight and earn the victory.

James Te Huna vs. Joey Beltran

The UFC gives the fans what they want with a heavyweight slugfest between James Te Huna and Joey Beltran. Both of these fighters approach the cage with the same gameplan every time. The are both looking to stand and bang until someone can’t stand any longer.

Te Huna is 14-2 overall including a 3-1 record in the UFC. He has won his last two fights against Aaron Rosa and Ricardo Romero via TKO in less than three minutes combined. His performance against Rosa in his last fight was particularly devastating and should have been stopped well before the forty seven second mark where it was finally ended. Te Huna’s weakness is his ground game but don’t expect Beltran to test it as he has done nothing but brawl throughout his career. He is 14-7 overall and went 3-4 in his most recent UFC stint being let go after back to back losses to Stipo Miocic and Lavar Johnson. Beltran has a ridiculous chin and has made a career of eating huge shots to land his own. This is a dangerous fight for him because he cannot afford to get hit too many times by Te Huna. This fight seems destined for a first round stoppage and unfortunately for Beltran, his jaw seems more likely to receive the shot that ends it.

None of the major bookmakers have odds for any of the fights on this card other than the main event but if they did, Te Huna would have to be a big favorite here. Beltran’s only hope is for his brick chin to allow him to survive long enough to land a haymaker on Te Huna. Expect a slugfest from the outset and this one will probably be done inside of the first five minute.

Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson

In a fight changed due to injury, Kenny Robertson replaces Jon Fitch to welcome Aaron Simpson to the welterweight division. Simpson has been a fixture in the UFC middleweight division for years but was never able to earn a signature victory. At thirty seven years old, he will make the cut to welterweight for the first time in the hopes of finding more success.

Simpson dropped a close decision to Ronny Markes in his last appearance. He hurt Markes early and won the first round but didn’t muster much offense after than and lost the last two rounds. Prior to that fight, he had won three straight following a two fight losing streak to Mark Munoz and Chris Leben. He will look to get back on the winning track against Robertson, who lost to Mike Pierce via TKO in the 2nd round in his only UFC appearance. However, that loss is the only one on Robertson’s record so this is an opportunity for him to earn his way into the UFC. Simpson comes from a wrestling background and has developed his striking over the years. He has the power to finish the fight with his hands and has done so on many occasions. Robertson prefers to bring the fight to the ground and work his submission game, which will be difficult to do against a wrestler like Simpson.

Unfortunately for Robertson, he faces a similar situation to what he faced in his first UFC appearance against Mike Pierce. Simpson is stronger and a better wrestler, which will make it difficult for Robertson to get the fight to the ground where he wants it. Expect Simpson to use his strength to control the fight and if he finds Robertson’s chin, the fight could be over quickly. However, if Robertson can make Simpson work and take the fight into the third round, we might see Simpson struggling with his cardio after cutting to 170 lbs for the first time. If that’s the case, Robertson may get the opportunity to get Simpson on the ground and work for submissions.

UFC on Fuel TV 4 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part 2

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani In another fight changed due to injury, the UFC on Fuel TV 4 opener will feature Anthony Njokuani and Rafael Dos Anjos who steps in to replace Paul Taylor..


Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani

In another fight changed due to injury, the UFC on Fuel TV 4 opener will feature Anthony Njokuani and Rafael Dos Anjos who steps in to replace Paul Taylor. Normally, the UFC likes to start their cards with a fight between lighter weight fighters who are likely to stand and strike to get the crowd into the event and hook the television audience. With Njokuani and Taylor, that would have been the case. Instead, we will see a classic grappler versus striker matchup as Dos Anjos will look to get Njokuani to the ground and work his black belt level jiu-jitsu.

Njokuani is one of the best strikers in the lightweight division. His long lean frame gives him a huge reach advantage against just about every other fighter in the division including Dos Anjos. His gameplan is pretty much the same for every fight. He looks to use his reach to keep his opponent at a distance and strike his way to victory. He is capable of a knockout but is not known for finishing and if he does earn a finish, it usually comes late in the fight due more to an accumulation of strikes than to the power of any one individual strike. He is 2-2 in his UFC career since moving over from the WEC with wins against John Makdessi and Andre Winner and losses against Edson Barboza and Danny Castillo. His performance against Makdessi in his last appearance was particularly impressive as he used his length to dominate with kicks. But he’ll need to be in even better form if he wants to put together back to back victories as Dos Anjos represents a step up in competition. Dos Anjos is mainly known as a jiu-jitsu fighter who looks to get his opponents to the mat and submit them. He has earned half of his sixteen career victories via submission including his last victory against Kamal Shalorus by rear naked choke. However, he set up the choke with a head kick that dropped Shalorus showing an improvement in his striking ability. Dos Anjos has been up and down in his UFC career with a 5-4 record but a victory against Njokuani would earn him back to back victories for the first time since 2010.

This fight is likely to be determined by whether or not Dos Anjos succeeds in landing the takedown. He showed improved striking against Shalorus but he is not on Njokuani’s level in that area and he will struggle to close the distance against the reach advantage of his opponent. The last fighter to get Njokuani down and control him was Danny Castillo. And even he struggled to maintain any kind of dominant position. Dos Anjos’s takedowns are not on that level and he is likely to struggle to get Njokuani down and keep him down. Expect Njokuani to use his reach advantage to keep Dos Anjos at distance and if he can do that, he should be able to strike his way to victory. But Dos Anjos only needs a few seconds on the ground to lock on to a submission so if he can get the takedown, he could earn the victory.

T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee

In the second fight of the night on Fuel TV, young bantamweight prospect T.J. Dillashaw will face Vaughan Lee. Dillashaw is just twenty six years old and has a 5-1 career record. The team alpha male product will look to build on his last victory against Walel Watson and continue to establish himself as a threat in the 135 lb division. Lee will be looking to prove that his upset victory over Norifumi Yamamoto was not a fluke and earn the right to continue fighting in the UFC.

Lee is 1-1 in his UFC career having lost a split decision to Chris Cariaso in his first fight before shocking everyone by upsetting Yamamoto in Japan at UFC 144. Lee was in trouble early in that fight but responded with a flying knee that eventually led to an armbar submission victory late in the first round. With a 12-7-1 career record, he will need to pull off another upset to prove that he belongs in the UFC bantamweight division. Coming from one of the best camps in the world, T.J. Dillashaw is looking to establish himself as a serious threat at 135 lbs. He dominated Walel Watson in his last UFC appearance earning a unanimous decision victory. He repeatedly put Watson on his back and rode him back and forth from mount to back mount landing strikes all along the way. He did everything but finish and he’ll be looking to do just that in this fight.

Dillashaw is the clear favorite going into this fight. He will look to put Lee on his back and work his impressive grappling game. But he’ll need to be careful as Lee has more to offer on the ground than Watson did. Expect to see a lot of grappling and whoever gets the better of the scrambles will likely earn the victory. If Dillashaw continues to show the kind of improvement he showed between his last two fights, he should be able to earn his second consecutive UFC victory.

Karlos Vemola vs. Francis Carmont

In a matchup of exciting middleweights who rarely make use of the judges scorecards, Karlos Vemola takes on Francis Carmont. Neither is a serious contender in the division but both have a tendency to fight aggressively, which is good news for the fans. Both fighters have knockout power and both are capable of submissions.

Vemola has alternated wins and losses on his way to a 2-2 record in the UFC. He earned a second round victory via rear naked choke against Mike Massenzio in his last appearance. That marked his fifth career victory in eleven fights via RNC. Vemola is an explosive fighter with big power in his hands. His submission victories are also usually based on overpowering his opponents. However, he is not the most technical fighter and has been controlled by opponents who approach him with a clear game plan of avoiding the exchanges and putting him on his back. Carmont, however, is not that type of fighter. He also looks for the finish and is likely to trade with Vemola early, which could be dangerous. If he goes for the takedown, he will look for submissions and not be interested in simply controlling his opponent. Carmont is 2-0 in his UFC career including his most recent victory over Magnus Cedenbland via rear naked choke. He was in trouble in the first round of that fight but responded in the second round with a quick takedown. From there, he moved to mount and used strikes to force his opponent to give up his back and neck.

This is another fight that isn’t likely to go to a decision. I don’t see either fighter having a clear advantage and the outcome will likely depend on who executes the most effective gameplan. Both fighters should be looking to set up a takedown and work from the top position as they both have the same weakness. If either fighter takes that approach, he is likely to earn the victory. But the more likely outcome is a series of exchanges on the feet and scrambles on the ground that eventually lead to a finish.