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UFC Fight Night 93 Predictions: Which Heavyweight Will Rebound In Germany?

Tomorrow (Sat., September 3, 2016) longtime heavyweight veterans Andrei Arlovski and Josh Barnett will look to rebound from recent losses in the main event of UFC Fight Night 93 from the Barclaycard Arena in Hamburg, Germany. Former champion Arlovski is coming off of two straight knockouts to current title fight participants Stipe Miocic and Alistair

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Former champion Arlovski is coming off of two straight knockouts to current title fight participants Stipe Miocic and Alistair Overeem, while fellow former champion Barnett is coming off a submission loss to Ben Rothwell. In the co-main event, former light heavyweight title challenger Alexander ‘The Mauler’ Gustafson will seek to snap a two-fight skid against Poland’s Jan Blachowicz.

Find out who we picked to win below.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Josh Barnett:

Mike Drahota:

This is a closely matched affair where the winner will most likely be the man who can most effectively impose their contrasting gameplan. The higher-ranked Arlovski is actually a betting underdog at +130 according to BigOnSports.com, with Barnett coming in at as the -150 favorite.

Although he’s undergone a career resurgence in the past two years, that has faded a bit for Arlvoski in his past two fights. Barnett will obviously be looking to get the fight to the ground to implement his elite catch-wrestling skills, but I think it may be his striking that might win the day with the Belarusian’s chin falling a bit. I’m going with Barnett by first round TKO.

Rory Kernaghan:

Andrei Arlovski and Josh Barnett are both legends of the sport, but father time is knocking at both their doors. In this fight I believe positioning will be key, and Barnett perhaps has the bigger advantage in that respect. If they stay standing I’d bet the farm on ‘The Pitbull,’ but I don’t see ‘Warmaster’ allowing that to happen. As sad as it is to say, I feel Arlovski’s second wind has passed, and he’ll be on the losing end of this scrap. I’m calling Barnett by submission in round two.

Mike Henken:

The main event will feature a battle between two former UFC heavyweight champions, but in my opinion, both men are nearing the tail end of their careers. Arlovski has lost back-to-back fights to the likes of reigning champion Stipe Miocic and current title challenger Alistair Overeem.

It’s also important to note that both of those losses came by way of stoppage which may be an alarming sign regarding Arlovski’s chin at this point in his career. Barnett, on the other hand, has lost two of his last three including a knockout loss to Travis Browne and a submission loss to Rothwell. This fight is a toss-up for me and I could see it going either way, but I feel as if the “Pitbull” will get the job done here. Arlovski by unanimous decision.

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Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jan Blachowicz:

Mike Drahota:

This fight is tough to label anything but a squash match for “The Mauler” against the unranked Blachowicz after fighting the absolute cream of the light heavyweight crop for the better part of the last four years.

Gustafsson is rightfully coming as a huge -585 favorite according to BigOnSports, and I think that might not even be enough. Gustafsson by first round knockout.

Rory Kernaghan:

Alexander Gustafsson has to be the betting favourite in this fight. Jan Blachowicz is a good fighter, but he’s never fought anyone near the calibre of ‘The Mauler.’ The Polish man is not really dangerous in terms of KO power, but he does have a solid ground game. In my mind, its a squash match. Gus needs to get back on track, and he’ll do so with dominance in this match. The Swede is far more well rounded, has better striking and defense, and has consistently faced better fighters throughout his career. I think the punches will get it done early on, look out for the uppercut, as Gustafsson KOs Blachowicz in round one.

Mike Henken:

This was an extremely easy pick for. In the most respectful way possible, I simply don’t feel as if Blachowicz belongs in the Octagon with Gustafsson. The Polish contender has solid submission skills, but he will be going up against one of the best 205-pounders in the world here. “The Mauler”, despite coming up short in his two title fights, should be able to score victory here. Gustafsson by first round knockout.

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Demian Maia vs. Carlos Condit Fight Preview & Breakdown

In the main event of tonight’s (August 27, 2016) UFC on FOX 21 from Vancouver, Canada, perennial top contenders Demian and Maia will look for another impressive win for their resume as they seek one more title shot. Let’s break the fight down. Striking: This is the largest disparity between the two combatants. Maia uses

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Let’s break the fight down.

Striking:

This is the largest disparity between the two combatants. Maia uses his striking solely for the purpose of getting into wrestling range. He throws a basic jab-cross combination in order to move forward and when he’s close enough, a takedown attempt is coming soon. He’s never won a fight on the feet and is often outmatched while standing. Obviously Maia is tentative, but he rarely trains striking because he’s so dominant on the mat.

Condit is one of the premier strikers in MMA. The “Natural-Born Killer” weaves a tapestry of elbows, knees, oblique kicks, and more with the basics of boxing and kickboxing. He’s creative and unique. Along with that, Condit always has a good gameplan and movement. He refused to fight the way Nick Diaz wanted to, and this fight is similar. Condit will need to stay on his horse and move laterally to stay out of Maia’s takedown range. Condit also has excellent timing, which could come into play if Maia shoots for a lazy takedown. A knee could end this fight early.

Verdict: 85/15 Condit

Wrestling:

Maia’s wrestling is among the best in MMA. Although he doesn’t possess the explosiveness of Daniel Cormier or Khabib Nurmagomedov, Maia can chain takedown attempts easily. He doesn’t rely on raw power or strength to get the job done, rather using his technique and his intelligence. Though he only completes 31% of his takedowns, he only needs one to potentially finish the fight, or at least win the round. There have been so many times in his career where the fight goes to the ground when he wants it to. I’m certain that he will get Condit to the ground at some point.

Condit will need to look back at his fights against Georges St-Pierre and Johny Hendricks if he wants to succeed against Maia. In both of those fights, Condit used elbows and other strikes to remain active and throw his opponents off their game. Condit never stops working when he’s on his back, usually leading to a scramble. That is what he needs to do to Maia. Forcing him to move or attempt to pass guard is the best way to create an opportunity to get back up.

Verdict: 75/25 Maia

Submissions:

We’ve seen Maia pull off all sorts of nasty submission in the UFC. There’s nothing that he isn’t comfortable attempting but I think it’s most likely that Maia will end up trying to take Condit’s back to sink in a rear-naked choke or a neck crank. Maia seems to excel at chokes from back control and we’ve seen how patient he is. He’ll hand-fight and bide his time until his opponent makes a mistake, and then capitalize.

Though Condit doesn’t have a submission win in the UFC, he’s got 13 in his career and is quite knowledgeable as well. He’s not going to be afraid to try for a guillotine choke or throw his legs up for an armbar or triangle choke. Though Maia is the superior Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner, Condit is no slouch and forcing Maia to defend submissions can give him the opportunity to create scrambles and get back to his feet.

Verdict: 70/30 Maia

Intangibles:

There are two here that deserve mentioning. The first is aggressiveness. Both fighters like to move forward when they’re standing. Maia does it order to get into grappling range. Condit does it to keep pressure and tire out his opponent. I think this plays a little into Maia’s hands. Condit sometimes brawls too much and gets a little wild, which is where Maia will have his best chance to get the fight to the ground.

The second intangible is cardio. We’ve yet to see Condit visibly tired in the octagon. He slowed a bit in the Robbie Lawler fight, but that’s because he was throwing so many strikes over the course of five full rounds. This will be different. At some point, Maia will take Condit down and we all know that Maia is a rug. If and when Condit gets back up, we’ll see just how much Maia can take out of him. Conversely, we’ve seen Maia look very tired in the third round against Matt Brown and Ryan LaFlare. This could pose a problem if Maia doesn’t get an early finish because Condit will definitely show up in the championship rounds.

Verdict: Condit 60/40

Overall, these two fighters are extremely well-matched and will likely put on “Fight of the Night.” I think that Condit will work hard enough on the ground to tire Maia out and capitalize in the later rounds.

Prediction: Condit by 4th round TKO

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UFC On FOX 21 Predictions: Will Carlos Condit Bounce Back?

The UFC is back this weekend (Sat., August 27, 2016) with UFC on FOX 21 from the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, and the main event features a crucial welterweight contest with serious title implications in one of the UFC’s most packed divisions. In the co-main event, former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis will look to turn

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In the co-main event, former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis will look to turn around a disappointing three-fight win streak against dangerous contender Charles Oliveira, and women’s strawweight sensation Paige VanZant will also look to get back on track against Bec Rawlings in her first fight since a vicious submission loss to Rose Namajunas last December.

It may not have the all-out star power and hype of last weekend’s UFC 202, but overall, UFC on FOX 21 presents some pivotal moments in the careers of a few major MMA stars.

Who did we pick to win in Vancouver? Find out right here.

Demian Maia vs. Carlos Condit:

Mike Drahota:

Maia has been on a tear as of late, and a lot of that is because he’s added a well-round wrestling arsenal to arguably the best pure Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree in all of MMA. It’s also no secret that Condit’s weakness has been takedown defense, so I think Maia will have his moments where he definitely drags “The Natural Born Killer” to the ground and smothers him.

But this fight getting switched from three rounds to a five-round main event favors Condit in a big way, as Maia has shown a tendency to gas late in fights while Condit has the toughness, tenacity, and durability to get stronger as the bout wears on. It’s kind of now or never for both men in the packed welterweight division here; Condit has talked about retirement following his title loss to Robbie Lawler, and Maia has already fought unsuccessfully for the middleweight title.

This is going to be a close fight. I feel that Condit will win, if no other reason but for that he simply has to in order to stay in the upper echelon of the 170-pound fray. Carlos Condit by decision.

Rory Kernaghan:

Condit has come so close to having the undisputed title wrapped around his waist in the past, but in Maia, he faces a very tough stylistic match-up. If he’s able to overcome the intense and dominant Brazilian jiu-jitsu game of Maia, then another crack at title glory is almost certain. The difference here will clearly hinge on who is able to keep the fight in their preferred area. On the ground I can’t see Condit winning, but equally if it stays on the feet I’d bet the farm on ‘The Natural Born Killer.’ My gut picks have served me well lately, and in this instance I just feel Condit is coming in more motivated than ever before. I’m picking Carlos Condit for the brutal first round TKO.

Mike Henken:

Since dropping down to welterweight, Maia has certainly looked like a force. His striking has steadily improved over time, and his ground game has always been amongst the best in MMA. With that being said, I don’t see him scoring a victory in this one. In my opinion, Condit simply has more ways to win. His striking is diverse and lethal, his conditioning is always on point, and his ground game has always been solid, although likely below the level of Maia. I’ll go with Condit by fourth round TKO.

Anthony Pettis vs. Charles Oliveira:

Mike Drahota:

Pettis absolutely has his back up against the wall in a big way here, and he has looked nothing less than drawn and dehydrated from his cut down to 145 pounds during recent media sessions. Oliveira is far from a gimme fight for his featherweight debut as well, as “Do Bronx” has been nothing but a spectacular finishing machine outside of his freak loss to Max Holloway due to injury.

Although Oliveira has some underrated Muay Thai, he should only use that as a entry before looking to take ‘Showtime’ down and ensnare him in one of his many exotic submission holds; his guillotine will be one Pettis especially has to be careful for. But if Pettis can rehydrate effectively and show up to the Octagon the bigger man at fight time, he may be able to find the space he needs to unleash his flashy finishing combos on Oliveira.

Another very close fight to pick, but I have to go with Pettis by decision.

Rory Kernaghan:

Pettis dropping to featherweight to face Oliveira is an intriguing fight. Although ‘Do Bronx’ has some slick ground attacks, he’s not the strong takedown-based wrestler that Pettis has been troubled by in the past. Add in that ‘Showtime’ has dealt with much bigger and stronger opponents in the past, and also that his stand-up is lethal when on point. I can’t see Oliveira holding down Pettis for any length of time, and in the striking I feel he is second best compared to ‘Showtime.’ Look for an impressive 145-pound debut, as Pettis kicks his way to a decision win.

Mike Henken:

Pettis, the former lightweight champion, has undoubtedly hit some rough times as of late, but I feel as if he’ll appear rejuvenated in his debut at 145 pounds. “Showtime” has long been one of the most exciting strikers in MMA, and his submission game is strong as well. Oliveira is a wizard on the ground and his Muay Thai is also lethal, but I’m going with Pettis by unanimous decision.

Paige VanZant vs. Bec Rawlings:

Mike Drahota:

In the third main card bout featuring a name fighter with much to prove, VanZant will look to resume her climb up the women’s strawweight ranks after a one-sided loss to Namajunas and a stint on ABC’s “Dancing With The Stars.” At times VanZant has looked sloppy and unrefined in the cage, and her overall toughness keeps her in bouts when her technical ability has long failed her.

The same could be said for Rawlings, who, despite some inspiring performances in her recent bouts, has not looked like the elite contender that “Thug” was, leading me to believe that this is viewed as simply a rebound fight for VanZant. I don’t think it is, however, and but I do think Rawlings will give “12 Gauge” a run. Ultimately, I believe VanZant will weather the storm and prove that she belongs in the Top 10. If not, she could have a long climb back up ahead of her. VanZant by decision.

Rory Kernaghan:

VanZant and Rawlings will throw down in what will likely be an intense war. ‘12 Gauge’ has proved to be a popular fighter, very marketable, but has suffered a few losses when things get gritty. In ‘Rowdy’ Rawlings, VanZant will face a fighter who loves those brutal wars. This fight is a bit of a coin toss in my opinion, and the tail of the tape doesn’t give much in either direction. I like VanZant’s grappling attacks, and the fact Rawlings is not exactly a KO power striker helps ‘12 Gauge’s’ case for victory. I’m picking VanZant for a third round submission win in her comeback after nine months off.

Mike Henken:

VanZant had her hype trained slowed in her last bout when she was dominated by top contender Namajunas, but I see her bouncing back against Rawlings with a convincing victory. ’12 Gauge’ has the toughness and skills to contend with and defeat most fringe contenders at strawweight, and Rawlings, although gritty in her own right, fits that bill. VanZant by unanimous decision.

Joe Lauzon vs. Jim Miller:

Mike Drahota:

This rematch of their blood-splattered UFC 155 classic has, to sound cliché, all the makings of “Fight of the Night” at UFC on FOX 21. And for good reason, as both Lauzon and Miller looked absolutely stellar in their respective UFC 200 starchings of Diego Sanchez and Takanori Gomi, arguably the two most exciting bouts on the ballyhooed card that were buried on the Fight Pass prelims. Both veterans will need a win to stay afloat in the stacked lightweight arena, however, and despite Miller winning the first bout handily, I believe Lauzon simply has more in the tank at this point. I expect a war on the feet and the canvas, and I think Lauzon gets it done by third round TKO.

Rory Kernaghan:

I really like Lauzon’s chances in this fight. He looked like a beast against Diego Sanchez, and has a physical advantage over Miller. Perhaps Miller’s best chance would be to make this a gritty war, but Lauzon’s ground game is very tight, making this a bit of a catch 22 for him. Not a tough pick, I’m calling for Lauzon to put Miller out with a head kick later on. Call it round three TKO for Lauzon.

Mike Henken:

The first time these two lightweight veterans met it was an absolute war and like many others, I think it’s very possible the two will put on yet another “Fight of the Night” performance. I simply feel as if “J-Lau” has looked better as of late, so I’ll take Lauzon by unanimous decision.

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UFC 202 Predictions: Did Anyone Pick Conor McGregor?

The wait is finally over and UFC 202 will go down tomorrow night (Sat., August 20, 2016) from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Featuring an anticipated welterweight rematch between Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor, the event’s hype was blown up to a new level when the two sides got into a bizarre bottle-throwing spectacle

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But despite that buzz, many are still picking the bigger Diaz to beat McGregor again he brutally submitted him in the second round of their first match-up at UFC 196.

Who did we pick to win the two main bouts of UFC 202? Find out below.

Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor:

Mike Drahota:

This is a huge fight for the UFC in not only that it’s arguably the biggest PPV of the year, but also one where the reputation of its biggest star is on the line, at least in some capacity. Yes, McGregor will still be featherweight champion if he loses, but a second straight defat to Diaz will undoubtedly rip away some of his mystique, something that has already happened since UFC 196.

The excuses were there then and they will be there now, so all McGregor can do to quiet the haters is win. In order to do so, he has to keep up a high volume of leg kicks, which Diaz has largely been susceptible to throughout his career. He also has to keep his cardio sustainable by not going for the knockout with every blow on the iron-chinned Diaz. Diaz, meanwhile, is the much bigger fighter, is more experienced and technical on the ground, and looks great after actually having a full training camp this time around.

After the presser fiasco, it would seem Diaz and his team are in McGregor’s head somewhat, similar to Ronda Rousey’s weigh-in outburst before her devastating loss to Holly Holm. I can’t disregard that here. I’m picking Diaz by second round submission.

Rory Kernaghan:

The rematch between Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor was boosted by the crazy press conference scuffle earlier this week, but what happens when they really do get it on? It’s quite a tough one, with numerous factors influencing their first meeting.

If McGregor were to show up in the same condition (cardio) as last time, I’d pick Diaz 10 times out of 10, but I don’t believe this to be the case. As we saw from last fight, their styles match very well on the feet, so for me this is very much a gut-based pick.

Going against the grain, I’m going to pick Conor McGregor for the TKO in round three. This wasn’t an easy pick to make, especially considering their last fight, but I just can’t shake the feeling of a revenge knockout in the making here.

Mike Henken:

I must admit that I have constantly gone back and forth with my prediction for this fight. In my opinion, Diaz is without question the more well-rounded fighter. His boxing is crisp and voluminous, and his cardio is second to none which often allows him to implement a pace that simply breaks his opponents.

When it comes to the ground, Diaz’s submission skills are world-class, and I’m not sure that McGregor will have been able to catch up in that department over the last six months. On top of all of these things, Diaz will be coming into this bout on the heels of a full training camp which could make him even more dangerous . With that being said, I’m going with my gut here, and my gut says that the Irishman will get the job done.

Diaz’s path to victory appears to be much clearer, but I think McGregor will come much more prepared this time around. Given that this fight means so much to him, I feel as if his cardio will be better than ever, and his strategy will be on my point. He’ll need to be able stick and move and land combinations consistently for five rounds here in order to get his revenge. He’ll also likely have to keep the fight standing. I’m going out on a limb here, but I’m picking McGregor by unanimous decision.

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UFC Fight Night 92 Predictions: Will Yair Rodriguez Continue Dominating?

Yair Rodriguez vs. Alex Caceres: Mike Drahota: This hardly-ballyhooed main event is poised to deliver some potentially hard-hitting action while boosting either the rise of potential star Rodriguez or dark horse Caceres. “El Pantera” is the prohibitive favorite, and for good reason, as the Mexican phenom has looked simply spectacular in his first few UFC

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Yair Rodriguez vs. Alex Caceres:

Mike Drahota:

This hardly-ballyhooed main event is poised to deliver some potentially hard-hitting action while boosting either the rise of potential star Rodriguez or dark horse Caceres. “El Pantera” is the prohibitive favorite, and for good reason, as the Mexican phenom has looked simply spectacular in his first few UFC bouts. It could be argued that Caceres is his toughest test in the Octagon to date, and he should be looking to ground the explosive striking of Rodriguez.

That is by no means a guarantee to victory, but throwing strikes with Rodriguez is an almost sure path to defeat. I think “Bruce Leeroy” will have his moments as this bout turns into a close affair at points, but ultimately Rodriguez will pull away with his superior talent. Yair Rodriguez by decision.

Rory Kernaghan:

Rodriguez vs. Cacares presents an interesting pairing of styles. Both men are extremely unorthodox in their method of combat, but it’s ‘Pantera’ who I see with much more of an athletic ability. So much so, I predict a whitewash early on in the fight. This isn’t to say ‘Bruce Leroy’ isn’t a great and entertaining competitor, I just feel his interest in standing with Rodriguez will be very costly. Cut and dry, first round KO for Yair Rodriguez.

Mike Henken:

Despite possibly flying under the radar, this main event could turn out to be quite an intriguing fight. Caceres, the more experienced of the two, has won back-to-back fights after dropping three straight. His experience aside, however, I just don’t see “Bruce Leroy” getting the job done here. Rodriguez will likely hold the striking advantage, and should look to keep the fight at a distance where he can implement his electrifying kicks. I’m going to go with “El Pantera” by third round TKO.

Read on to the next page to see our picks for the co-main event.

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UFC 201 Predictions: Will The Champ Retain?

Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley: Mike Drahota: It’s an easy to see that the UFC 201 main event promises fireworks, and for good reason. Lawler has delivered three “Fight of the Year” winners and/or candidates during the last three years, and while many are legitimately picking the wear and tear of those epic five-round wars to […]

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Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley:

Mike Drahota:

It’s an easy to see that the UFC 201 main event promises fireworks, and for good reason. Lawler has delivered three “Fight of the Year” winners and/or candidates during the last three years, and while many are legitimately picking the wear and tear of those epic five-round wars to finally catch up to him tonight, I’m not as sure.

The champion cannot afford to start slow as he did against Carlos Condit, Rory MacDonald, and Johny Hendricks. Woodley definitely possesses perhaps the most threatening one-round skills due to his massive power and speed, but that athletic prowess could begin to wane if the fight lasts more than five minutes.

It’s hard to predict if the absolutely massive amount of strikes Lawler has absorbed lately will finally affect him, but while it could, I think he should have the gameplan to come out firing and use his height and reach advantage to back “The Chosen One” against the cage for a barrage of strikes. Woodley has been out of the cage for a year-and-a-half, and in my mind he lost his last fight to Kelvin Gastelum. He may have added new wrinkles to his game, but it might not be enough to knock Lawler off his throne.

Lawler by second round TKO is my pick.

Rory Kernaghan:

Robbie Lawler and Tyron Woodley are an intriguing pair explosive athletes. Woodley likes to go very hard early on, but has shown signs of wavering late in fights. This could be a problem against ‘Ruthless,’ who tends to have his best rounds in the final half of the fight.

This in turn could be a problem for Lawler if he comes out too slow, but he also has a wide experience gap on ‘The Chosen One,’ and here is where I feel the key for victory lies. Lawler knows Woodley is going to come out explosive, and rather than take that risk of playing rope-a-dope in to the later rounds, I predict a ruthless finish early on.

Look for a well-timed counter shot to put the lights out, as Robbie Lawler knocks out Tyron Woodley in round one.

Mike Henken:

In my opinion, Woodley’s long layoff, as well as his questionable gas tank, will give him problems in this fight. “The Chosen One” hasn’t competed since earning a lackluster decision win over Kelvin Gastelum in January 2015. Woodley, a former NCAA Division I wrestler, possess explosive power and finishing ability, but he’s also been known to fade as fights go on while Lawler only gets stronger in the later rounds.

I feel as if the “Ruthless” is the superior technical striker, and if he can keep this fight on the feet, which I expect him to be able to do, he should be able to batter Woodley. Lawler via unanimous decision.

Read on to the next page to see our predictions for the pivotal women’s strawweight co-main event.

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