Tag: UFC welterweights

Definitively Ranking the Top Five Welterweight Contenders Following UFC 171


(Pictured above: A semi-retired welterweight on a two fight losing streak who will not be featured in this column. Photo via Getty.)

There’s been a lot of talk about who the next #1 welterweight contender is following UFC 171, so much so that we have all but neglected to give the division’s new champ, Johny Hendricks, his due credit for outlasting Robbie Lawler in an absolute war to secure said title last Saturday. Some are saying that Tyron Woodley should get the next shot, regardless of the circumstances that led to his TKO win over Carlos Condit. Other, less creative individuals are calling for an immediate Hendricks/Lawler rematch, and a few loons out there are honestly, unbelievably, rallying to give Nick Diaz another completely unearned title shot. A blindly-devoted, if illogical bunch, us MMA fans oft are.

But one thing’s for the certain, the UFC’s welterweight division — and specifically, the claim of being the true #1 contender — is open for the taking once again. So to clear up any and all confusion regarding this talent-rich division, we’ve decided to definitively rank the top five contenders using only the power of Johny Vision™ (warning: may cause diarrhea, dip-spit mouth, and beard face).

#5 – Carlos Condit

Up until the point that Carlos Condit’s knee decided to implode against Tyron Woodley, well, he was losing his fight with Tyron Woodley. The notoriously slow starter was getting off second and failing to outmaneuver the quick hands of Woodley in most of their early exchanges and was taken down twice in the first round. But getting dominated? Hardly.


(Pictured above: A semi-retired welterweight on a two fight losing streak who will not be featured in this column. Photo via Getty.)

There’s been a lot of talk about who the next #1 welterweight contender is following UFC 171, so much so that we have all but neglected to give the division’s new champ, Johny Hendricks, his due credit for outlasting Robbie Lawler in an absolute war to secure said title last Saturday. Some are saying that Tyron Woodley should get the next shot, regardless of the circumstances that led to his TKO win over Carlos Condit. Other, less creative individuals are calling for an immediate Hendricks/Lawler rematch, and a few loons out there are honestly, unbelievably, rallying to give Nick Diaz another completely unearned title shot. A blindly-devoted, if illogical bunch, us MMA fans oft are.

But one thing’s for the certain, the UFC’s welterweight division — and specifically, the claim of being the true #1 contender — is open for the taking once again. So to clear up any and all confusion regarding this talent-rich division, we’ve decided to definitively rank the top five contenders using only the power of Johny Vision™ (warning: may cause diarrhea, dip-spit mouth, and beard face).

#5 – Carlos Condit

Up until the point that Carlos Condit’s knee decided to implode against Tyron Woodley, well, he was losing his fight with Tyron Woodley. The notoriously slow starter was getting off second and failing to outmaneuver the quick hands of Woodley in most of their early exchanges and was taken down twice in the first round. But getting dominated? Hardly.

When looking over the welterweight division’s list of fighters, it would be hard to find more than a few guys who stand a chance of beating “The Natural Born Killer” on even his worst day. With wins over Rory MacDonald, Nick Diaz, Dong Hyun-Kim, and close losses to Georges St. Pierre and Johny Hendricks, Condit still maintains his top five ranking despite dropping three of his past four fights. A crazy notion perhaps, but a fair one when discussing a perennial upper-echelon contender like Condit. And honestly, we’d still pick a healthy Carlos over a couple of the guys we are about to rank ahead of him.

#4 – Hector Lombard 

The fact is, a win over Jake Shields — no matter how ineffective or exhausted or truly garbage-ass he looked — is a win worthy of consideration. Few of us could say that we saw Lombard heading for anything but “Biggest UFC Busts” territory after his first three fights — a pair of unforgettable in their terribleness decision losses to Tim Boetsch and Yushin Okami sandwiched around a first round KO over Rousimar Palhares. And while it’s true that Lombard is still struggling to find consistency in the excitement department since dropping to welterweight, he surely isn’t having any trouble in the win department.

After starching Nate Marquardt at UFC 166, Lombard looked as if he was destined for another first round knockout against Shields last weekend. He had bloodied up the former title challenger inside of two minutes, had defended all of his takedowns, and had even landed a beautiful judo toss of his own. It was absolute dominance; perhaps the best round Lombard has had in the UFC (that didn’t result in a finish).

But then, he just kind of coasted. He played it safe. For a man that is known as such a mean SOB even among MMA fighters, Lombard seemed all too willing to turn on the autopilot for two rounds. Unfortunately, we were all too busy criticizing Lombard to recognize that he had made quite a definitive statement with his performance, lackluster though it may have been. Let me ask you this: Aside from GSP, who has ever dominated Jake Shields on the ground like that? Demian Maia couldn’t. Tyron Woodley sure as hell couldn’t. But Hector Lombard did, and with ease.

Title-ready Lombard may not be, but worthy of consideration? Surely.

#3 – Rory MacDonald

This ranking seems fairly obvious. MacDonald is currently riding a winning streak of one fight, but arguably holds more notable UFC wins than anyone on this list: Maia, Ellenberger, Penn, Nate Diaz, etc. His only loss in the past three years came via a split decision loss to the guy who just narrowly lost a title bid last weekend, so where else should he belong? We say match him up with Lombard next and have Dana White declare it a kinda-sorta-maybe #1 contender fight (a.k.a “not a #1 contender fight”) in a half-hearted attempt to generate interest. Fuck yeah, world domination!

#2 – Tyron Woodley

Despite the fact that he shredded his opponents knee with a takedown/leg kick combo last weekend, Tyron Woodley might have had the worst luck of them all at UFC 171. His win over Condit has already been all but declared as a push in fan’s eyes — a freak accident on par with Anderson Silva’s leg break, to speak in forced comparisons — regardless of the fact that he was taking it to Condit in seven minutes prior.

That said, Woodley has now won three out of his past four fights, over Jay Hieron (heh), Josh Koscheck (in his second straight KO loss and third straight overall), and Carlos Condit via injury. Throw in Woodley’s relatively reserved persona and you don’t exactly end up with the ingredients for a monster pay-per-view. And that is perhaps the most important factor in these post-Sonnen vs. Jones times.

#1 – Robbie Lawler

Again, this seems relatively simple. Lawler holds wins over the #3 guy (according to the recently-established mother of all welterweight rankings) and a former title challenger in Koscheck (his first to come by KO since 2009), and lost a fight with Hendricks that was essentially decided by one takedown in the final minute of the fifth round. Until someone proves us otherwise, Lawler is still the guy to beat at 170 lbs.

Does that mean he should receive an immediate rematch with Hendricks? God no. But matching Lawler up with Woodley next and giving the winner a title shot makes a ton of sense to us. As with Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jon Jones, pairing each fighter up with a worthy opponent instead of immediately rematching them gives the potential rematch some time to simmer (if all goes according to plan) while playing against the idea that the UFC has become a heartless, money-grubbing corporation that hands out title shots regardless of merit or even logical deduction. Everybody wins, you guys!

Tyron Woodley makes the most sense from a time-sensitive standpoint, yes, but there’s no need to rush the newly-crowned champion into another fight before he can even start to build his brand as champion. And in a welterweight division that is still relying on GSP and Nick Diaz to generate interest, Johny Hendricks is a good a star as any.

Of course, this can only mean that Lawler vs. Diaz II has already been booked with a title shot on the line, and we’ve simply yet to hear word of it. And to be completely honest, we’d watch that fight. We’d watch the sh*t out of it.

–J. Jones

CagePotato Databomb #9: Breaking Down the UFC Welterweights by Striking Performance


(Click the photo for a full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

With what some are calling the “Welterweight Card” at UFC 158 just a week away, it’s time to assess the UFC Welterweight Division in critical striking metrics. In addition to the long-awaited showdown between reigning champ Georges St. Pierre and Nick Diaz, there’s four more 170 pounders all in the title hunt. So a lot of questions will be answered in this division in one night, and it would help to put some of those in context first.

Let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, then look at the winners and losers in each category. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the bottom of this article.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Veteran Nate Marquardt makes his Octagon return at UFC 158 boasting a best in class 40% accuracy in power head striking. He’ll need it against southpaw Jake Ellenberger, who is pretty accurate himself at 32%. Honorable mention goes to the gritty Matt Brown who recently put his standup skills under the bright lights of the UFC on FOX show, knocking out Mike Swick, who is indeed “quick.”


(Click the photo for a full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

With what some are calling the “Welterweight Card” at UFC 158 just a week away, it’s time to assess the UFC Welterweight Division in critical striking metrics. In addition to the long-awaited showdown between reigning champ Georges St. Pierre and Nick Diaz, there’s four more 170 pounders all in the title hunt. So a lot of questions will be answered in this division in one night, and it would help to put some of those in context first.

Let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, then look at the winners and losers in each category. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the bottom of this article.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Veteran Nate Marquardt makes his Octagon return at UFC 158 boasting a best in class 40% accuracy in power head striking. He’ll need it against southpaw Jake Ellenberger, who is pretty accurate himself at 32%. Honorable mention goes to the gritty Matt Brown who recently put his standup skills under the bright lights of the UFC on FOX show, knocking out Mike Swick, who is indeed “quick.”

Energizer Bunny Award: Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is just two fights into his young UFC career, with one award winning knockout to his credit, and one grueling lesson learned from Matt Brown. But so far, Wonderboy has outstruck opponents in standup striking by more than two to one. Ditto for another fast working newcomer, Chris Clements.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Brazilian Erick Silva has been wrecking dudes, getting questionable disqualifications, or winning fight night bonuses in each of his four Octagon appearances. Most pundits are high on Silva’s potential, despite a loss to a far more experienced Jon Fitch. Silva is set to face another standout striker, John Hathaway, at the UFC on Fuel 10 card in June. Honorable mention goes to Thiago Alves and Nate Marquardt who lead the division in total knockdowns, with 10 and nine respectively.

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: With 45 minutes of fight time in the UFC so far, it seems David Mitchell is still trying to find his range. Mitchell has the division lowest power head striking accuracy at a chart-busting 9%. Historically a submission specialist, Mitchell was able to rebound recently with a win over Simeon Thoreson in a loser leave town matchup.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Since British fighter John Maguire has thrown strikes with a favorable 38% accuracy, he may want to try throwing a few more. Maguire has been outpaced by opponents nearly two to one in his first four UFC appearances, splitting those fights two and two.

Smallest Ball(s) Award: Of the 52 fighters charted above, 14 have yet to score a knockdown in the UFC or Strikeforce. But grappling specialists Demian Maia and Jake Shields have failed to do so despite over two hours of fight time logged. Maia has actually landed 53 power head strikes on opponents (out of 272 attempts) without getting anyone to drop. Opponents facing grapplers with poor accuracy and even worse power can resort to a sprawl and brawl strategy, while these grappling specialists should remember the first “M” in MMA.

Also Noteworthy

The high frequency of the red bubbles shows how successful Southpaws have been in the UFC Welterweight division. Thirteen of the 52 fighters shown in the graph are left-handed, more than twice the baseline rate for the general population.

Like other divisions, Welterweights show the same tradeoff between volume and accuracy. Counter-strikers tend to be more accurate, but must sacrifice volume while evading opponents, which is dangerous on judges’ cards. And high volume, forward pressing fighters tend not to land with as high accuracy. But those who break the mold combining accuracy with pace control are surely fighters to keep an eye on. This includes GSP training partner Rory MacDonald, who is coming off a lopsided victory over BJ Penn, and now has his sights set on top ranked opponents. But also watch for British striker John Hathaway, who is 7-1 in the Octagon since 2009 and scheduled to face the dangerous young gun Erick Silva in June. Let’s hope they keep that one standing.

At UFC 158 we’ll see heavy-handed and accurate strikers Nate Marquardt and Jake Ellenberger square off in a fight that will definitely affect the Welterweight rankings. We’ll also see Johny Hendricks and his blazing fast left hand come after the technical, yet inaccurate Carlos Condit in what will surely cement a title shot for Hendricks with a victory.

And let’s not forget the GSP-Diaz matchup. Their historical performance suggests that Diaz generally controls standup exchanges and outpaces his opponents. But St-Pierre is the more accurate and slightly heavier handed striker. Though not shown here, the key will be GSP’s evasiveness (his head striking defense is excellent) traded off with his chin (his knockout resiliency has been getting poorer). GSP’s fights tend to be more exciting when there’s genuine animosity at work, so we should expect a fairly tense chess match, and probably some mid-round trash talking from Diaz.

In our last installment of the division striking assessments we’ll take a look at the UFC Heavyweight division in all their jaw-breaking glory.

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, orjabs to the head), where the average for UFC Welterweights is about 24%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: the objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155.  Some of these fighters competed in other weight classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed. Fighters with only one fight or less than 15 minutes of fight time were not included in the graph.

For more on the science and stats of MMA, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter or on Facebook. See more analytical MMA research at www.fightnomics.com. Raw data was provided by Fight Metric.

Johny Hendricks Holding Out For Title Shot


(Ain’t no tantrum like a Big Rigg tantrum)

In the whole welterweight/middleweight title/super-fight mess of excitment and speculation going on right now, number one 170 pound contender Johny Hendricks is one of the few people giving real talk. “I’m not going to fight unless it’s for a belt,” Hendricks told MMAJunkie Radio Friday.

The former NCAA Division I wrestling national champion solidified himself as the number one contender to Georges St. Pierre’s welterweight crown with five straight wins, his last three against Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck and Martin Kampmann. Despite earning his shot, Hendricks is far from a lock to be the next one to fight St. Pierre.

Middleweight champion Anderson Silva is chasing a super fight with the Canadian and St. Pierre surrogates are lobbying for his next fight to be against his rival Nick Diaz. Diaz is currently serving a suspension for testing positive for marijuana metabolites before his last fight, a loss to Carlos Condit.


(Ain’t no tantrum like a Big Rigg tantrum)

In the whole welterweight/middleweight title/super-fight mess of excitment and speculation going on right now, number one 170 pound contender Johny Hendricks is one of the few people giving real talk. “I’m not going to fight unless it’s for a belt,” Hendricks told MMAJunkie Radio Friday.

The former NCAA Division I wrestling national champion solidified himself as the number one contender to Georges St. Pierre’s welterweight crown with five straight wins, his last three against Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck and Martin Kampmann. Despite earning his shot, Hendricks is far from a lock to be the next one to fight St. Pierre.

Middleweight champion Anderson Silva is chasing a super fight with the Canadian and St. Pierre surrogates are lobbying for his next fight to be against his rival Nick Diaz. Diaz is currently serving a suspension for testing positive for marijuana metabolites before his last fight, a loss to Carlos Condit.

“I really want a belt. They don’t come around that often, and I feel like I’ve done enough to earn a shot, and that’s pretty much all I’m thinking of right now. I’m training for a five-round fight, and that’s it,” Hendricks continued.

For all the wrestler turned KO artist cares, St. Pierre, Silva and Diaz can do whatever they want with one another, but after they are done he will make sure that he is waiting in the wings for whomever is welterweight champion. “Nothing else matters but the belt,” he believes.,

“My last three fights were guys in the top five, and I finished two of those three fights. I stated my claim. My stock’s really high right now, and the only thing left is to get a shot at that belt.”

What do you think, nation? Is Hendricks right to sit out until he gets his shot at St. Pierre? And what do you think the chances are Diaz will skip ahead in line now that we have the Chael Sonnen modern precedent of getting title shots immediately after losses?

– Elias Cepeda

BREAKING: Jay Hieron Returns to the UFC to Face Jake Ellenberger at UFC 151


(That’s an understatement.)

Talk about the opportunity of a lifetime.

After a seven year absence from Zuffa’s graces that saw him go 16-3 in various promotions including Bellator, Strikeforce, and most recently Legacy Fighting Championships, highly-ranked welterweight Jay Hieron will finally be returning to the UFC to take on Jake Ellenberger in Josh Koscheck’s absence in the co-main event of UFC 151.

Awwwwww yeah!! 


(That’s an understatement.)

Talk about the opportunity of a lifetime.

After a seven year absence from Zuffa’s graces that saw him go 16-3 in various promotions including Bellator, Strikeforce, and most recently Legacy Fighting Championships, highly-ranked welterweight Jay Hieron will finally be returning to the UFC to take on Jake Ellenberger in Josh Koscheck’s absence in the co-main event of UFC 151.

Awwwwww yeah!! 

As you may recall, after losing a title bid to Ben Askren in a highly controversial (re: bullshit) split decision at Bellator 56, Hieron became locked in a bitter contract dispute with Bellator that ended with him returning his signing bonus in order to be relieved of his contract. When breaking the news of his free agent status via his twitter account, Hieron tweeted that it was “time for me to work my way back up to the top.” One can not think of a faster way of doing so than by knocking off a top contender in Ellenberger on less than a month’s notice.

Hieron has not competed in the UFC since October of 2005, where he suffered a third round TKO via cut loss to the now-retired Jonathan Goulet in one of the bloodiest MMA fights you will ever see. Now 11-1 in his past twelve, Hieron’s lone defeat in the past five years was the aforementioned loss to Askren in their welterweight title bout.

Ellenberger, on the other hand, is coming off a tough TKO loss of his own at the hands and knees of comeback all-star Martin Kampmann at the TUF 15 Finale. The loss was the first in his 33-fight career to come by way of (T)KO, and snapped an impressive six-fight win streak that included wins over Diego Sanchez, Jake Shields, and Mike Pyle among others.

One has to imagine that bailing the UFC out on short notice will at least buy Hieron a couple more fights even if he is unsuccessful against Ellenbgerger, but what do you think, Potato Nation? Will Hieron’s glorious return end in triumph or defeat?

–J. Jones

Josh Koscheck v. Johny Hendricks Set For UFC on Fox 3 in May


(Trust fall: You’re doing it wrong.)

If anything, UFC on Fox 3 is looking like it has the potential to surpass that of its first two cards in terms of excitement. Dana White announced via his Twitter last night that a battle between top welterweight contenders Josh Koscheck and Johny Hendricks has just been booked for the UFC’s third go-around on Fox, which is already set to feature a lightweight clash between Jim Miller and Nate Diaz, as well as a heavyweight sure to be slugfest pitting Pat Barry against Lavar Johnson. Yes, it’s looking like there is little stopping this card *cough* Jon Jones’ commentary *cough* from finally delivering a good lineup to the masses. The first Fox card had the fights, but failed to showcase enough of them, whereas the second card was simply too underwhelming to reel in any new fans, but the addition of Hendricks/Koscheck to this card will surely push it over the top.

Hendricks is coming off a 12 second knockout over former #1 contender Jon Fitch, which snapped a 5-0-1 streak Fitch had put together since dropping a unanimous decision to Georges St. Pierre back at UFC 87. Koscheck, however, is fresh off a controversial split decision victory over Mike Pierce at UFC 143. Despite being outsruck for the majority of three rounds, Koscheck was able to secure the decision by converting on two of his three takedown attempts, because that’s apparently all it takes these days.


(Trust fall: You’re doing it wrong.)

If anything, UFC on Fox 3 is looking like it has the potential to surpass that of its first two cards in terms of excitement. Dana White announced via his Twitter last night that a battle between top welterweight contenders Josh Koscheck and Johny Hendricks has just been booked for the UFC’s third go-around on Fox, which is already set to feature a lightweight clash between Jim Miller and Nate Diaz, as well as a heavyweight sure to be slugfest pitting Pat Barry against Lavar Johnson. Yes, it’s looking like there is little stopping this card *cough* Jon Jones’ commentary *cough* from finally delivering a good lineup to the masses. The first Fox card had the fights, but failed to showcase enough of them, whereas the second card was simply too underwhelming to reel in any new fans, but the addition of Hendricks/Koscheck to this card will surely push it over the top.

Hendricks is coming off a 12 second knockout over former #1 contender Jon Fitch, which snapped a 5-0-1 streak Fitch had put together since dropping a unanimous decision to Georges St. Pierre back at UFC 87. Koscheck, however, is fresh off a controversial split decision victory over Mike Pierce at UFC 143. Despite being outsruck for the majority of three rounds, Koscheck was able to secure the decision by converting on two of his three takedown attempts, because that’s apparently all it takes these days.

Depending on the outcome, this matchup poses an interesting conundrum for Joe Silva. If Hendricks wins, you have to believe he’s done enough to warrant a title shot. He may not have a big name at this point in his career, but knocking off two former title challengers in a row would be enough to earn Urijah Faber title shots in the weight classes of his choosing for the rest of his natural born life, and possibly beyond that. If Koscheck wins, on the other hand, there isn’t really much to give him in return, outside of a possible match against interim champ Carlos Condit, who he was originally scheduled to face at UFC 143, while GSP recovers. Kos has fought the current welterweight champ twice to no avail, and suffered a broken orbital bone in his last attempt at UFC 124, so you can’t imagine that many people will be clamoring for yet another unnecessary trilogy to come to fruition.

That said, who takes this one?

-J. Jones