There was a bittersweet quality to Rafael dos Anjos’ victory over Anthony Pettis at UFC 185.
It was as if, even as he was winning the lightweight title, Dos Anjos couldn’t win.
The new champion turned in a commanding performance on Saturday night, succinctly dragging all of Pettis’ weaknesses out of the dark recesses of our memories and putting them on full display. He beat Pettis up on the feet, stifled his flashy, sometimes garish offense with workmanlike forward pressure and took him down at will.
Against fairly long odds, Dos Anjos won every single painstaking round, suddenly and utterly changing the trajectory of the 155-pound division before our very eyes.
Yet, somehow we couldn’t enjoy his triumph for what it was. We couldn’t even appreciate it in the moment without already spinning it forward, wondering aloud if he’ll prove to be more than just a transitional champion.
“You know who’s watching this fight and getting excited?” UFC color commentator Joe Rogan asked in the early stages of the fourth round.
Play-by-play announcer Mike Goldberg already knew the answer: “Khabib Nurmagomedov?”
“That’s right,” Rogan said, “because he is the best grappler in this division and he has done to Dos Anjos what Dos Anjos is doing to Pettis.”
A round later, Rogan brought up Nurmagomedov again, saying he was likely “licking his chops” at the prospect of having Dos Anjos as champion. So, even as the 30-year-old Brazilian earned a 50-45 sweep on all three judges’ scorecards and began filling his post-fight interview with bland religious platitudes, the message was already out there.
This guy might not be here all that long.
How unspeakably frustrating must this reception have been for Dos Anjos? Here he was winning the UFC title under career-making circumstances and it still wasn’t quite good enough.
The greatest moment of his life hadn’t even fully passed and conventional wisdom was already suggesting he was just keeping the UFC title warm for Nurmagomedov.
Unfair? Maybe. Unfounded? Not quite. Truth is, the skepticism shouldn’t really be a surprise. Few had Dos Anjos pegged as the lightweight class’ next breakout star.
Through his first three years in the UFC he was no better than a .500 fighter, cleaning up against also-rans like Rob Emerson and Terry Etim, but faltering when matched against mainstays like Gleison Tibau or Clay Guida.
Even after it all seemed to click for him, his ceiling didn’t appear as high as other up-and-comers. He put together a 5-0 run during 2012-13, only to have the streak halted in crushing fashion by Nurmagomedov in April 2014.
That bout seemed to be the final word on Dos Anjos’ fitness as a contender. He just couldn’t keep Nurmagomedov off of him, smothered by the undefeated Sambo specialist’s near peerless grappling attack en route to a unanimous-decision loss.
There was no shame in this—the same thing has happened to Nurmagomedov’s other 21 opponents, too—but it felt as though Dos Anjos had slipped a step behind the rest of the elite fighters in his division.
Even after he regrouped for three more wins, his rise to contender status was slow and quiet. In fact, it probably would’ve been Nurmagomedov fighting Pettis at UFC 185 had he been healthy enough to make the date. Unfortunately, Nurmagomedov was still out tending to a torn meniscus when Pettis emerged victorious over Gilbert Melendez at UFC 181, and so Dos Anjos got the next shot.
He wasn’t really supposed to win. He’d looked impressive in his most recent performances—including back-to-back victories over Benson Henderson and Nate Diaz—but Pettis was flying too high to be stopped.
Or so we thought.
Dos Anjos’ victory was the kind that only became obvious in hindsight. He came equipped with the perfect game plan and executed it flawlessly, making us question everything we thought we knew about the lightweight pecking order.
Nobody saw it coming.
Well, nobody except Nurmagomedov, who told MMAFighting.com’s Marc Raimondi the week of the fight he thought Dos Anjos would “smash” Pettis. Now that he’s been proved right, Nurmagomedov—who is rapidly becoming one of the best talkers in the UFC’s most competitive weight class—has his eye on the title.
First, though, he still has to take on Donald Cerrone in a presumptive No. 1 contender bout at UFC 187.
“I feel I am the No. 1 lightweight in the world,” Nurmagomedov told Fox Sports’ Damon Martin this week. “I am very focused for my next fight versus ‘Cowboy’ (Cerrone). I will come back strong, beat Cowboy…and after that I want my fight against Rafael dos Anjos because he has my belt.”
It seems as though most observers are on board with that analysis. If and when it happens, Nurmagomedov will almost certainly be the betting favorite against Dos Anjos. Most people have a difficult time imagining their second bout going much differently than the first, and expect another grappling tutorial from the Russian.
Of course, this line of reasoning jumps to some fairly substantial conclusions. A lot could still happen to foul up Nurmagomedov‘s plan.
For starters, it was revealed in the wake of UFC 185 that Dos Anjos defeated Pettis with a torn MCL. He also suffered a broken nose during the fight, and his recuperation from both will put him out of action for at least three months.
Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov could lose to the streaking Cowboy, or could suffer another injury that makes it hard to line his schedule up with the champion’s.
But if that rematch does get made, make no mistake: Dos Anjos will have two tough battles on his hands.
First, he’ll have to figure a way to deal with Nurmagomedov’s remarkable wrestling attack.
Second, he’ll have to win over his many doubters and prove he’s fit for the crown.
Chad Dundas covers MMA for Bleacher Report.
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