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Somewhat surprising odds here as the 40 year old Manny Pacquiao is the favorite over Keith Thurman this Saturday.

Saturday night, boxing presents a marquee PPV match-up when the 40 year old future Hall of Fame fighter Manny Pacquiao takes on one of the best Welterweights in the world, 30 year old Keith Thurman. It’s an interesting fight for a lot of reasons, and it has fans divided. Take a look at the latest odds courtesy of OddsShark:

Manny Pacquiao -160
Keith Thurman +130

Those are very close odds, but interestingly, it’s Pacquiao who is the slight favorite. That’s a switch from where each man stood when odds opened, which had Thurman as the favorite at -141 and Pacquiao at +105. I would guess that had you put odds on this fight a year ago they would have been even wider in favor of One Time. But two things have happened in the past year: 1) Thurman returned from a lengthy layoff and looked less than stellar against Josesito Lopez, very nearly being stopped by the unranked Lopez; 2) Pacquiao turned in a pair of strong performances, first against Lucas Matthysse (which included Pacman’s first stoppage in nine years), then against Adrien Broner. So Pac’s stock is on the rise (amazingly) and Thurman’s is on the fall – the result is a Pacquiao line here.

And to be honest, Thurman as an underdog feels like a great bet, capitalizing on some recency bias and overlooking the great skills he demonstrated in the past (and also overlooking the fact that Pacquiao is 40, and, as they say, time is undefeated). What gives me pause is that this feels like a fight destined for the scorecards, and destined for some sketchy judging. In recent years, poor judging has gone against Pacquiao more often than not, which would again favor a Thurman bet, but the point stands that who wins the fight and who “wins” the fight may not have a lot in common. Caveat emptor.

Here are the odds for the rest of the PPV:

Luis Nery -2500
Juan Carlos Payano +1000

Sergey Lipinets -1200
John Molina Jr. +700

Yordenia Ugas -400
Omar Figueroa +300

Figueroa at a +300 is an interesting bet. He’s had some spotty performances, but he’s also undefeated, and it’s possible that Ugas’s recent wins aren’t as strong as we think. That one is worth a shot.

Finally, a few other notable fights taking place this busy boxing weekend:

Teofimo Lopez -3000
Masayoshi Nakatani +1100

Dillian Whyte -500
Oscar Rivas +350

Derek Chisora -350
Artur Szpilka +265

Join Bloody Elbow Saturday night for live fight night coverage of Pacquiao vs. Thurman.

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s WBA welterweight title main event between Manny Pacquiao and Keith Thurman.

The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for Manny Pacquiao vs. Keith Thurman, and most of us are backing the Filipino pugilistic great to hand the reigning WBA “super” welterweight champion his first professional loss. Stephie Haynes is going with Thurman, while Fraser Coffeen thinks we’ll see a draw. If you want to see the predictions from our colleagues at Bad Left Hook, check out the link below.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Manny Pacquiao vs. Keith Thurman

Mookie Alexander: The Thurman who had a way too difficult win vs. Josesito Lopez is quite possibly going to get knocked out by Pacquiao. Frankly speaking, he tends to lose his composure a bit when opponents bring the fight to him (so to speak) and makes him fight at an uncomfortable pace. Shawn Porter fought at an incredible pace and uglied things up, and Thurman had to squeak past him on the scorecards, with his superior technique keying the win. I’ve also theorized that between the Porter and Luis Collazo bouts, Thurman doesn’t take body shots very well. On the other hand, he can win this at mid-range and work his counterpunching effectively, as he gets a bit sloppy throwing his power shots in rapid succession. Can he contend with Pacquiao’s still dangerous blitzes forward and his combination punching? I don’t think so. There’s also the chance that we get a cautious approach with Thurman weary of Pacquiao’s speed and flurries from his southpaw stance, while Pacquiao has to recognize that Thurman hits hard enough to compromise his chin, without being a devastating KO puncher. I’m actually looking forward to this one, which is something of a rarity for so many boxing PPVs lately. Manny Pacquiao by unanimous decision.

Ram Gilboa: Manny Pacquiao is the only senator in any senate on earth, past or present, that I’ll pick to beat Keith Thurman in a boxing match. When Pacquiao started fighting – professionally – Thurman was six. And 25 years on, Pacquiao is an all-time great and is still in great form. Disregarding the Jeff Horn fight judges apparently all developing glaucoma on that momentous night – Pacman’s last loss was to a tactical Mayweather, in 2015. He’s been straight singeing world-beaters – and Jeff Horn – since losing to his kryptonite JMM in 2012. And while he can’t be the relentless frenetic Pacman of the decade before that, for 36 minutes straight, barely reined-in; he can still be that guy at bursts, at pivotal points. He now has experience to know when to amp it up and manage through the rest. If Keith Thurman would have fought a little bit more, been a little more active lately, I think he would have been able to assert himself early on and run away on the cards. But right now, I predict Pacquiao picks up a close and exacting yet clean cut win. Manny Pacquiao by Decision.

Lucas Bourdon: Pacquiao doesn’t have the legs of his twenties and he can’t push the pace as much as he did back then but he’s still fast, he’s still in great condition and he still finishes fights strong. I don’t think Thurman fights at a high enough pace himself to capitalize on Pacquiao’s age and he’s been susceptible to fading late in fights. I expect a competitive fight for the first two thirds and a strong finish by Pacquiao to take a close-ish but clear decision. Manny Pacquiao by Decision.

Fraser Coffeen: This is a super close fight that has become more interesting with each man’s last fights. Thurman looked rough against Josesito Lopez, while Pac looked great against Adrien Broner. But let’s be honest – looking great against Adrien Broner (and Lucas Matthysse) is not the same as looking great against Keith Thurman. Assuming Keith Thurman is still Keith Thurman, and after the Lopez fight, that’s not an assumption everyone feels comfortable making. I still think Thurman is the better fighter at this stage, and should be able to score a bit more. But I also don’t see either man really unloading, and this being a drawn out, point-by-point kind of affair. Which means judges. Which means nonsense, because seriously, when was the last time we had a big PPV fight that was even remotely close and the decision was fair and accurate? Assuming it’s close, the right business move is a draw to set up a rematch. Worked for GGG/Canelo, worked for Fury/Wilder. And sadly, boxing decisions in 2019 are about the right business move, not the actual winner of the fight. Controversial Draw.

Staff picking Pacquiao: Ed, Ram, Mookie, Lucas Bourdon
Staff picking Thurman: Stephie
Staff picking draw: Fraser

Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Crafty kickboxer, Leon Edwards, will square off with Brazilian great, Rafael dos Anjos, this Saturday (July 20, 2019) at UFC on ESPN 4 from inside AT&T Center from San Antonio, Texas.

At 27 years of age, Leon Edwards is gunning for a title shot.

I remember when Edwards first really separated himself from the pack in my eyes. In 2015, Edwards faced off with Kamaru Usman, who had already proven himself a ridiculously dominant and physical wrestler. For a young English kickboxer, Edwards’ takedown defense and general strategy were hugely impressive even in a loss. Since that defeat to the future champion, Edwards ripped off seven-straight wins, rarely looking troubled in any of those fights. He’s a patient and strategic fighter, which hasn’t helped him build momentum, but “Rocky” is genuinely one of the very best Welterweights in the world.

Let’s take a closer look at his skill set:

Striking

A lanky but strong Southpaw, Edwards has a great build for kickboxing. He’s not a brutal knockout artist, but Edwards has finished six of his opponents via stoppage and has enough pop to force opponents to respect his game.

The first thing to note about Edwards’ game is that he jabs more often than most Southpaws (GIF). When faced with an opposite stance opponent, Edwards definitely still hand-fights and parries with his lead hand — Southpaws almost have to — but he’s far more willing to slap down his foe’s lead hand and step into a jab. He’ll commonly follow up with the left afterward, and it lands with better accuracy since he’s already found his way into range with both the hand-fighting and previous jab.

Edwards also makes use of the Southpaw double threat: forcing his opponents to quickly determine whether a left cross or left kick is coming their way. This strategy is a staple of Edwards’ offense. Again, it tends to come after the jab, as Edwards snaps his foe’s head back and uses that moment to gain a bit of an outside angle before firing a hard cross or kick. Edwards’ left body kick is notably snappy and well-placed, a considerable weapon (GIF).

On the whole, much of Edwards’ offense comes on the counter. He’s willing to lead and will often do so in a close fight to push the pace, but he does a lot of damage answering his opponent’s strikes (GIF).

For example, Edwards did a great job of countering Peter Sobotta, a fellow Southpaw. Since the two men were in the same stance, the jab’s importance grew. That favored Edwards since he already throws a lot of jabs usually, but he built upon that advantage by looking to counter Sobotta’s jab frequently. Early on, a looping cross counter over the jab found its home on Sobotta’s jaw a few times. Once the German athlete adjusted, Edwards switched his counter punch of choice to the uppercut (GIF).

In addition, Edwards is quite good at kicking from his back foot, a risky technique that a lot of fighters do poorly. As his opponent advances, Edwards will feint with his lead hand, set his feet and stop moving away, and blast a left kick into the mid-section. It’s simple enough on paper, but the timing has to be precise to avoid a counter or stuffed kick.

The last note on Edwards’ kickboxing habits is that he likes to following the left high kick with a lunging left hand. It’s both sudden and effective, and it again takes advantage of the Southpaw double threat by forcibly moving his opponent’s hands out of position to block the kick.

Edwards’ last two fights have proven him to be an excellent clinch striker (GIF). Much of the time, it’s as simple as throwing something, anything when breaking away from the clinch, when fighters tend to drop their hands. However, Edwards also does a phenomenal job initiating the left elbow from the clinch, which is the subject of this week’s technique highlight.

Wrestling

Edwards has spent some camps at American Kickboxing Academy (AKA), and the results are obvious: he’s very difficult to takedown, and his approach to top control is very much the same as AKA’s other top fighters, like Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Even the best converted non-wrestlers tend to have average shots, but that isn’t the case for Edwards. Not only does he duck down into the double leg with good speed, but he takes an angle immediately upon hitting his foe’s hips. From there, Edwards stands a better chance at driving through the shot or hitting the fence and finishing from there.

In addition, Edwards shows good transitional wrestling by switching from a double leg to body lock (GIF). For example, check out this takedown opposite Bryan Barberena (GIF). The sequence begins when Edwards gets in deep on a double leg but is stopped by Barberena’s hips, so he attempts to finish the shot with an outside trip. Barberena’s balance holds, but the trip attempt allows Edwards to lock his hands in a body lock. The Englishman stands up and tries to circle to the back, a transition which is stopped by Barberna’s overhook. However, Edwards still has the hold and a decent angle, allowing him to finish with an inside trip.

Edwards goes from trips quite a bit from the clinch, and they generally serve him quite well. He has a great frame from that style of takedown. However, Edwards does occasionally get a bit overzealous looking for the trip, which can open up reversals.

Defensively, Edwards does a lot of things right. First and foremost, his immediate defense to just about any shot is to get his back to the fence and widen his stance. With his legs too far apart to be double-legged, Edwards mostly just has to focus on fighting hands. If his opponent switches to a single leg, Edwards will look to stuff the head to the outside or down to the mat, opening up opportunities to reverse.

One thing Edwards does very well is maintain head position. When opponents drive forward into the clinch, Edwards will get his hips back, helping prevent the shot and allowing him to lower his own head. The head is often looked at as the first line of defense in wrestling, and Edwards often proves that notion true, pressing his forehead into his opponents jaw and negating forward pressure. After getting good head position, Edwards is usually able to angle off soon after or return to those hard elbows.

The only man to find consistent success in wrestling Edwards in recent years was Usman, and even then, Edwards’ defensive technique held up wonderfully. It was more a matter of strength and conditioning, as Usman just kept grinding until the momentum shifted in his favor. Frankly, Usman has done that to everyone he’s faced, but a 23-year-old Edwards defended far better than most.

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Edwards’ control game from top position revolves around taking the back, so it should not be a surprise that two of his three career submission victories are rear naked choke wins. He’s attempted the hold multiple times inside the Octagon and did manage to secure it against Albert Tumenov.

In that bout, Edwards won the first two rounds via top control. In the third, both men were a bit fatigued, leading to a more desperate scramble from both. Edwards managed to drag Tumenov to the mat with a seat belt grip from the back, but he was perilously close to falling off the back. Tumenov worked to loosen the hooks as Edwards tried to move back and pull him deeper into the back mount, but “Rocky” flipped the script by going submission over position and simply attacking the neck. His arm found its way under the chin, forcing Tumenov to focus on the choke rather than the escape. By that point, though, it was too late, and Edwards was able to secure his first submission victory inside the Octagon.

Conclusion

Despite his greatness inside the Octagon, Edwards is struggling with his argument toward the next title shot. Covington is overdue, and Jorge Masvidal just scored the biggest moment of the year with his flying knee — “Rocky” needs something big. Even defeating dos Anjos may not be enough, but it does guarantee Edwards moves into the Top 5, which is certainly progress.

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Andrew Richardson, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, is a professional fighter who trains at Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, California. In addition to learning alongside world-class talent, Andrew has scouted opponents and developed winning strategies for several of the sport’s most elite fighters.