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UFC 166: Fighters Who Should Be on Upset Alert in Houston

The landscape of multiple weight classes are set to be affected at UFC 166 on Saturday night.
Just how drastic those effects will be depends on whether or not a few of the favorites on the card can stay away from the upset bug.
While plenty…

The landscape of multiple weight classes are set to be affected at UFC 166 on Saturday night.

Just how drastic those effects will be depends on whether or not a few of the favorites on the card can stay away from the upset bug.

While plenty of favorites might seem like sure bets, a handful of underdogs on the card have what it takes to spring the upset. In a sport that can turn at any second, you can throw the odds out the window. These fighters have to be on top of their game to pick up the win.

Odds via Bovada, statistics via FightMetric unless otherwise noted.

Gilbert Melendez (-650) vs. Diego Sanchez (+425)

Gilbert Melendez is a sizable favorite to defeat Diego Sanchez on the evening’s main card, but don’t be so quick to count out “The Dream.”

Sanchez isn’t the most technical fighter, but he has the cardio and mentality to turn any fight into a brawl. His 2.83 significant strikes landed per minute are right up there with Melendez’s 3.09 clip, and he actually lands with more accuracy (38 percent to 32 percent).

Melendez doesn’t have that great of an advantage in the stand-up department. He holds a strong advantage in terms of wrestling, but Sanchez defends 53 percent of takedown attempts, so he could sprawl and brawl his way to the upset victory.

John Dodson (-400) vs. Darrell Montague (+300)

Based on the odds for this fight, Dodson may be getting too much respect against a relatively unknown opponent.

It’s easy to see Dodson’s appeal. Since winning The Ultimate Fighter 14, he’s climbed the ladder at 125 pounds and put in a respectable showing against champion Demetrious Johnson. Now he’s trying to get back on the title track against someone whom most fans haven’t even heard of.

That doesn’t mean Montague should be discounted, though. He is 13-2 in his career with his latest loss coming against Ian McCall in 2011. Since then, he’s won four straight with three finishes to his name.

The obvious retort to his record is a lack of quality competition, but that goes both ways. We haven’t seen what Montague can do against the best of the best in the UFC, so he could pose a threat to Dodson.

Sarah Kaufman (-200) vs. Jessica Eye (+160)

By the time the prelims are over, we may have another contender in the women’s bantamweight division. Sarah Kaufman won’t have an easy night with Jessica Eye in her promotional debut.

Kaufman comes into the fight with the more impressive big-show resume. In addition to being a former Strikeforce champion, she holds victories over Liz Carmouche, Alexis Davis and Miesha Tate.

However, Eye is a dangerous opponent with a seven-fight win streak and an 11-1 record. She doesn’t have flashy knockout power or submissions, but she’s capable of wearing opponents down and grinding out decisions. If Kaufman is depending on knocking her out in a slugfest, she may be in for the upset of the night.

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UFC 165: Biggest Locks on Jones vs. Gustafsson Card

Headlined by a light heavyweight title fight between Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson, UFC 165 is a card marked by more than one fight that figures to be rather lopsided.
Joe Silva and Co. are usually spot-on with their matchmaking, but sometim…

Headlined by a light heavyweight title fight between Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson, UFC 165 is a card marked by more than one fight that figures to be rather lopsided.

Joe Silva and Co. are usually spot-on with their matchmaking, but sometimes mismatches are just inevitable. For example, just about anyone that the UFC marches out to take on Jones at light heavyweight is most likely in for a long night.

For those looking to make some last-minute picks on all of Saturday night’s action, here are the surest bets to go down in Toronto.

Note: All odds via Bovada; all statistics via FightMetric unless otherwise noted.

Jon Jones (-850) Defends His Title Against Alexander Gustafsson (+525)

With Anderson Silva now dethroned in the middleweight division, there’s an argument to be made that Jones is the most dominant champion in the UFC. Georges St-Pierre still holds the longest title reign, but Jones’ ability to finish gives him the edge.

Jones has finished his opponent in four of his five title defenses, and there’s no real reason to think he won’t do it against Gustafsson.

The 26-year-old Swede is a worthy challenger. His six-fight win streak has come against some impressive names, including Shogun Rua and Thiago Silva. But his only loss came to a lanky wrestler in Phil Davis. Jones (84.5″ reach) is even longer than Davis (79″ reach).

Expect Jones to not only win, but win by knockout or submission.

Renan Barao (-700) Makes It A Good Night for Champions Against Eddie Wineland (+450)

If you’re hoping for a highly competitive co-main and main event, this probably isn’t the card for you. Interim bantamweight champion Renan Barao is going to make sure that both champs on the card pick up dominant wins.

Barao might not get the respect of the other high-profile champions in the organization, but he’s still one of the most unbeatable. The 26-year-old Brazilian is 30-0 with one no contest since losing his first professional fight.

That record isn’t entirely inflated with bad names, either. Urijah Faber, Scott Jorgenson and Michael McDonald are all high quality opponents who found out just how good Barao is.

Wineland is a fighter with plenty of heart and an entertaining style to watch, but his penchant for getting hit (3.22 significant strikes absorbed per minute) will be his undoing against Barao.

Myles Jury (-400) Proves to Be Better Ultimate Fighter Alum Than Mike Ricci (+300)

Myles Jury and Mike Ricci were both contestants on different seasons of The Ultimate Fighter with very different experiences. Ricci was the more successful of the two—he landed a spot in the TUF 16 finale against Colton Smith while Jury was defeated in the first round of TUF 15.

However, it’s Jury that has been far more impressive in fights that actually count. He’s a perfect 3-0 in the Octagon with a career record of 12-0. Ricci, on the other hand, is 8-3 with a 1-1 record in the UFC thanks to his Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale loss to Smith.

Jury has proven that he’s much better than the fighter we saw lose on the reality show. He’ll earn himself even more vindication with a convincing win over a TUF finalist on Saturday night.

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UFC Fight Night 26 Results: Travis Browne Defeats Alistair Overeem Via TKO

Travis Browne put the rest of the heavyweight division on notice with a huge first-round TKO win over Alistair Overeem in the co-main event of Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night 26 card at the TD Garden in Boston.
It was a strong display of toughne…

It was a strong display of toughness from Browne. Overeem was the one who came out strong from the opening bell, putting the underdog against the fence and attacking him with his signature Muay Thai knees and kicks.

However, Browne weathered the storm and waited out ‘The Demolition Man’s” barrage. The perseverance paid off as Browne landed a front kick to Overeem’s jaw that would make Anderson Silva jealous and turned the fight on its head.

Browne followed “The Reem” to the mat and finished him off with strikes to complete the upset.

The upset victory is easily the biggest of the big 31-year-old’s career. His professional record moves to 15-1-1 with the win including a 6-1-1 mark inside the Octagon.

None of Browne’s previous five victories were quite as impressive as this one. Ranked as the No. 5 heavyweight in the UFC, Overeem was expected to rebound from his UFC 156 loss to Antonio Silva and get back on track for a crack at the UFC title.

Now Browne has the case to be in line for a championship bout.

The 6’7″ powerhouse was ranked as the No. 8 heavyweight in the division heading into the bout after a vicious first-round knockout of UFC veteran Gabriel Gonzaga. Now he has a huge name in Overeem to add to his resume.

Throw in the fact that the win happened in front of a free television audience, and Browne couldn’t have hoped for a bigger stage to take his career to the next level.

Overeem, on the other hand, will need to go back to the drawing board after this loss. The once feared and revered Strikeforce and DREAM heavyweight champion was once again defeated by an opponent whom he was expected to beat.

After dominating former heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar in his UFC debut en route to a first-round TKO victory, he’s been defeated by Silva and Browne. For a 33-year-old with 50 fights around the globe on his record, one has to wonder if his next venture will be navigating the retired life.

UFC Fight Night 26 was supposed to represent The Reem‘s chance to get right back in the mix as a marketable contender for Cain Velasquez’s title. Instead, Browne seized the best opportunity of his career thus far and catapulted himself into the conversation.

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UFC Fight Night 26: Last-Minute Odds and Prediction for Shogun vs. Sonnen

The UFC didn’t allow the fact that UFC Fight Night 26 will be free on television to keep it from putting together a great main event. Light heavyweights Chael Sonnen and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua star in a matchup that no fight fan will want to miss.&…

In Sonnen, you have a brash, controversial middleweight/light heavyweight contender who loves to push the pace with his relentless wrestling. He’s looking to get back into the win column after losing to Anderson Silva and Jon Jones in back-to-back fights.

In Shogun, you have a former PRIDE legend and fearsome striker who just can’t seem to catch a break. His brief run with the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship has been overshadowed by his inability to win back-to-back fights since 2009, when he beat Mark Coleman and Chuck Liddell after losing to Forrest Griffin in 2007.

With both fighters desperately needing a win in this interesting clash of styles, this bout has all the makings of a classic. Here’s everything you need to know before you catch the fight. Note: Statistics used in this article via FightMetric unless otherwise noted.

When: Saturday, Aug. 17 (Main card starts at 8 p.m. ET)

Where: TD Garden, Boston

Watch: Fox Sports 1 (Channel No. for your area can be found here)

Odds (via Bovada): Rua -155, Sonnen +125

Shogun Wins If…

He is able to defend Sonnen‘s takedowns and find his opponent’s chin.

At his best, Shogun is one of the most impressive knockout artists in MMA history. A fully healthy and prime Shogun has better explosiveness and power than just about anyone in the sport. It’s no coincidence that 18 of his 21 career victories have come by way of knockout.

His striking should be even stronger coming into this fight as he spent some time training with famed boxing coach, Freddie Roach.

Finishing Sonnen with strikes won’t be easy, though. Few fighters close distance as well as Sonnen does, and he only absorbs 1.05 strikes per minutes.

Sonnen Wins If…

He puts Shogun on his back early and often.

With 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, Sonnen is aggressive in his wrestling. He only lands 60 percent of his attempts, but he makes up for it with sheer volume. His striking has improved over the years, but it’s still relatively rudimentary.

Conversely, his opponent isn’t the best at stopping takedowns. Rua‘s takedown defense accuracy sits at just 44 percent, and he was taken down six times in his three-round bout against Alexander Gustafsson.

If Sonnen can wear Shogun down in the opening rounds, the fight will swing into his favor. He’s 16-1 in fights that have gone the distance, while Rua is just 2-3.

Prediction: Sonnen via Unanimous Decision

As always, the real question that will determine this fight is what version of Rua shows up. If it’s the Shogun who demolished Chuck Liddell and knocked out Lyoto Machida for the light heavyweight title, then he wins the fight.

But it’s been more than three years since we saw that version of Shogun. His wins since then have come against Brandon Vera and Forrest Griffin. Those guys weren’t at the level that Sonnen is right now.

Expect Shogun to threaten early, but if he doesn’t get the finish, Sonnen will take control as the fight wears on.

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Chael Sonnen Faces Must-Win Situation Against Shogun Rua at UFC Fight Night 26

Chael Sonnen’s days as a top contender in the UFC will officially be over if he doesn’t find a way to beat Mauricio “Shogun” Rua on Saturday, Aug. 17 at UFC Fight Night 26.
The 36-year-old middleweight/light heavyweight contender is easily one of…

Chael Sonnen‘s days as a top contender in the UFC will officially be over if he doesn’t find a way to beat Mauricio “Shogun” Rua on Saturday, Aug. 17 at UFC Fight Night 26.

The 36-year-old middleweight/light heavyweight contender is easily one of the UFC’s most recognizable names and faces, but there’s only so much the UFC can do to market him as a true title contender if he doesn’t win his next bout.

To be fair, just about any fighter would have lost the two fights that make up Sonnen‘s current two-fight skid. His first loss was to the longest reigning champion in UFC history, Anderson Silva. His second was against the man that will probably break all of Silva’s records, Jon Jones.

Sonnen‘s detractors would love to say that precludes Sonnen from ever competing for UFC gold again. That’s not really the case, though. With Silva now dethroned in the middleweight division, there’s a very real possibility “The Gangster from West Linn, Oregon” could make a run at 185 pounds again.

Realizing this opportunity, Sonnen has already declared his intentions to go back to middleweight after defeating Shogun on “UFC Tonight,” per MMAWeekly:

“I’ll return to middleweight after beating Shogun,” said Sonnen on Tuesday night’s edition of UFC Tonight. There’re two guys I want to get matched up with: Vitor Belfort, because he’s awesome and he’s on an incredible roll. And Wanderlei Silva, who I’ve heard is going back to middleweight.

“The landscape has completely changed. I’ve got a new contract and I’m returning to the weight class.”

However, a loss to Rua would put any of Sonnen‘s title hopes to rest.

Rua himself is teetering on the edge of relevance entering Saturday’s fight. The last time he put together a two-fight win streak was in 2009 when he defeated Mark Coleman at UFC 93 and Chuck Liddell at UFC 97.

Since then, he has alternated wins and losses in his last seven fights. Among the wins was a knockout victory over Lyoto Machida that crowned him as the light heavyweight champion. His other wins have come against Forrest Griffin and Brandon Vera.

While he’s always been a fan favorite and legend of the sport, it’s tough to make the argument that he’s still an elite contender anymore. A loss to Rua now is much more inexcusable to fans and UFC brass than it was just two or three years ago when he was still the fierce man who knocked out Machida.

Sonnen won’t necessarily be forced to retire with a loss. His larger-than-life persona and ability to hype a fight will still make him a draw.

He mentioned taking on 37-year-old Wanderlei Silva in his return to middleweight. That’s a fight that could headline a smaller card based on their high-profile status regardless of title implications.

However, Sonnen has always been about earning UFC gold. As much as he loves the spotlight, he’s a fighter that wants to prove he’s the best. Defeating Shogun Rua on Saturday night is his last chance to prove that he deserves to be on the title track once again.

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Aldo vs. Jung: UFC 163 Main Event Adds Another Impressive Win to Champ’s Resume

Is there anything that UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo can’t do in the Octagon?
On paper, it appeared that the champion’s latest challenger, Chan Sung Jung, could at least make it an interesting fight if he was able to take it to the gro…

Is there anything that UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo can’t do in the Octagon?

On paper, it appeared that the champion’s latest challenger, Chan Sung Jung, could at least make it an interesting fight if he was able to take it to the ground.

“The Korean Zombie” hadn’t been taken down in his last five fights, according to FightMetric, and was known for possessing an aggressive ground game. Heading into the fight, you had to think there was at least a small chance he could stun the champion with something crazy like the Twister that he put on Leonard Garcia at UFC Fight Night 24.

So what did Aldo do?

He willingly took the fight to the ground. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the renowned striker attempted six takedowns and landed five of them. That’s not a bad success rate going against a fighter who had never been taken down in his UFC career.

Ultimately, it wasn’t Aldo’s fancy ground work that won him the fight, though. Jung suffered an apparent separated shoulder in the fourth round, and the champion pounced with some impressive strikes to put “The Korean Zombie” away, as Jeremy Botter of Bleacher Report summed up in this tweet:

Aldo’s performance was surprising yet familiar at the same time. With no losses in eight years and seven consecutive title defenses reaching back to his days in WEC, we’re used to seeing him dominate whoever is placed in front of him.

But we’ve never seen him utilize the grappling aspect of his game so heavily. That’s a scary development for the rest of the featherweight division.

Aldo has always been one of those fighters who receives rave reviews for his jiu-jitsu but rarely puts it on display when fight time comes. With his win over Jung, he showed that he’s not only the most feared striker in the division but can grapple with just about anyone as well.

Unseating the champion just became even more difficult after watching him dismantle yet another top contender at featherweight.

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