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Another big event is in the books, but this it’s not either of the two title fights from UFC 136 that has the MMA world buzzing. No, it’s what happened on the mic rather than in the cage that has us all wondering, is Chael Sonnen serious? And if so, is that a good thing? We don’t know, but we’re going to do our best to get to the bottom of what it all means. Whatcha gonna do when the MMA Wrap-Up runs wild on you, brother?!
Filed under: UFC
Another big event is in the books, but this it’s not either of the two title fights from UFC 136 that has the MMA world buzzing. No, it’s what happened on the mic rather than in the cage that has us all wondering, is Chael Sonnen serious? And if so, is that a good thing? We don’t know, but we’re going to do our best to get to the bottom of what it all means. Whatcha gonna do when the MMA Wrap-Up runs wild on you, brother?!
Filed under: UFCMusings, ramblings, questions, and predictions abound in the final hours before UFC 136 in Houston. Here are just a few of them, for your consideration.
I. After the first Frankie Edgar-Gray Maynard fight, who’d have guessed we’d want …
Filed under: UFC
Musings, ramblings, questions, and predictions abound in the final hours before UFC 136 in Houston. Here are just a few of them, for your consideration.
I. After the first Frankie Edgar–Gray Maynard fight, who’d have guessed we’d want to see two more? Certainly not me. I remember well the feeling of dull obligation when the main event at UFC 125 rolled around. I was at home, watching the pay-per-view with my wife and some friends. After the Leben-Stann fight most of my friends went home (or to the bars that might as well be their homes), and my wife went to bed. If it hadn’t been my job to stay up and write, I might have DVR’d the final fight and followed her. Thankfully, I had no choice but to watch it live, and by the end of the first round I was debating waking her up and telling her she just had to see what was happening. I didn’t (my wife’s a fan, but she doesn’t mind waiting until the morning to catch the recorded version), and it was probably the right call for the sake of domestic bliss. Still, that fight served as a reminder that no matter how many events you’ve seen, you never know for sure what you’re going to get. That’s a sword that cuts two ways, of course, and with the Edgar-Maynard trilogy we have no way of telling whether the end will be fittingly satisfying or disappointingly mediocre. Maybe the best we can hope for is that finally, after months of waiting, it will really and truly be over.
“I really can’t get into it because I don’t fully understand it myself. It’s one of those things you try to learn as best you go but I’m not the guy who handles that. I’m not a manager. And they don’t make it extremely clear. There’s not a web site or anything we can go to to find out. …It would be helpful if the commissions told us more. It makes it tough on a guy to follow a rule when nobody is willing to clarify what the rule is.”
Now who’s elusive?
IV. Gray Maynard hasn’t finished a fight inside the distance since 2007. Edgar hasn’t done it since 2009, and that was against not-so-distinguished competition in Matt Veach (who’s now riding a two-fight losing streak in the minor leagues, last time I checked). For the fans who crave finishes and berate champions who don’t deliver them, is this a kiss of death? Will they continue to care about and/or pay to see UFC lightweight title contests if it’s almost a given that it will end up in the hands of the judges? I don’t know, but personally I’ve never understood the line of reasoning that claims the only good fight is a finished fight. Granted, draws like the one we saw last time leave us feeling cold, but who can say they didn’t have a great time watching that fight? Just because no one tapped or got knocked out, that doesn’t necessarily mean it wasn’t money well spent.
V. Joey Beltran has never lost to a fighter making his UFC debut. Okay, so he’s only fought two of them so far — Rolles Gracie and Aaron Rosa — but he won both. Now he’ll try to keep the streak intact against undefeated newcomer Stipe Miocic, who the UFC reportedly has high hopes for. Can Beltran play spoiler again? Oddsmakers don’t think so. Most have Miocic as a 3-1 favorite. But then, they’ve been wrong about Beltran before.
VI. We’re about to find out a lot about Anthony Pettis‘ potential. He dazzled us with the Showtime kick in the WEC, then squandered his promised title shot with a loss to Clay Guida in his UFC debut. Now he’s relegated to the prelims in a fight against Jeremy Stephens, who is the exact sort of fighter you simply must be able to beat if you want to be a contender at this level. Stephens is a resilient scrapper with knockout power, but he’s no world-beater. He’s someone who, on paper, Pettis ought to be able to handle. But Stephens never makes it easy on you, and he’s never more than one good punch away from ruining your night. If Pettis can’t beat him, we’ll know that “Showtime” isn’t quite ready for primetime.
VII. Jorge Santiago doesn’t need to panic just yet, but he should be at least a little concerned. His last UFC run ended after two consecutive losses in 2006. Now he’s 0-1 in his return, and facing a heavy favorite in Demian Maia. A loss here doesn’t necessarily mean he’s gone — Stann and then Maia is a heck of a one-two punch in your first fights back in the UFC — but it doesn’t bode well for his future either.
VIII. Melvin Guillard didn’t have to take this fight, but why wouldn’t he? After five straight wins, he could have probably opted to sit around and wait for either a title shot or at least a clear number one contender bout. But the way the lightweight division is looking right now, on the sidelines is no place to be. By continuing to take fights Guillard not only keeps his skills sharp and his bank account full, he also keeps himself in the conversation about top UFC lightweights. When the UFC does finally get around to promoting a 155-pound title fight that doesn’t include both Maynard and Edgar, Guillard’s recent triumphs will still be fresh in people’s minds. That is, if he is indeed triumphant here. Naturally, nothing’s guaranteed, but if you didn’t think you could beat Joe Lauzon 99 times out of 100, what would make you think you could be UFC champion?
Filed under: UFCLast time on Fighter vs. Writer, Michael Bisping picked with his heart rather than his head at UFC 135, and it cost him the victory against yours truly.
With UFC 136 nearly upon us, I challenged former Strikeforce light heavyweight cha…
Filed under: UFC
Last time on Fighter vs. Writer, Michael Bisping picked with his heart rather than his head at UFC 135, and it cost him the victory against yours truly.
With UFC 136 nearly upon us, I challenged former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion and noted agent provocateur of Twitter, “King” Mo Lawal. There are few fighters more knowledgeable about the fight game (or more confident in their own knowledge of the fight game) than Lawal, so I have my work cut out for me.
As usual, we’ll start at the top of the card and work our way down. Mr. Lawal, you have the honors…
Lawal: Maynard via decision. “I love both fighters. Frankie’s a soldier, and so is Gray. Gray’s Team Thirsty. But I think Gray can pull off the decision, get a few takedowns early on and then coast. But if Frankie starts fast, he could be in trouble.”
Fowlkes: Edgar via decision. He surprised me last time with how well he dealt with Maynard’s wrestling skills, and that was after getting dropped and nearly finished. I think he sticks and moves his way to a win, and we can all finally move on our lives.
Lawal: Florian via decision. “This whole card is fighters I like, but man, I think Kenny’s going to pull it off. The southpaw stance, the elusiveness, inside leg kicks, and takedowns. I think he pull it off that way.”
Fowlkes: Aldo via decision. I just don’t see Florian being able to wrestle his way to a win before Aldo tenderizes his thighs with those kicks. The champ is too fast and has too many weapons at his disposal. Another weight class where Florian is better than everybody but the very best.
Lawal: Sonnen via decision. “I like Brian Stann, but I got to go with the wrestler on this one. Chael’s my boy. …His double-leg is tricky. No one’s figured out how to stop it. They all try and guillotine him and it never works. They get taken down. I don’t know how Brian Stann’s going to be able to stop that.”
Fowlkes: Stann via decision. I agree that the takedown will be hard to stop, but if Stann can manage it I think this becomes his fight to lose. Sonnen’s been off for over a year, and Stann’s had a lot of time to hang out in the gym and plan on how to shut down the double-leg.
Lawal: Nobody. “I think this fight’s going to be a disappointment. Not a disappointment, but there’s going to be more game-planing, and it’ll be more technical than people think. It’s a toss-up. It’s going to come down to who made the adjustments.” Even when pressed, Lawal refused to make a pick. You know what that means. Now he can only get the win on this one if it ends in a draw or, as has actually happened before, doesn’t take place at all.
Fowlkes: Phan via decision. I expect Garcia to show up telling himself he’s not just going to brawl, but then I expect him to get hit once and forget all about that. If Phan can avoid getting sucked into a street fight, like I think he can, he outpoints Garcia clearly enough this time that even the worst judges can’t miss it.
Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon
Lawal: Guillard via TKO. “Stoppage. First round. I think he’s much better, much more dynamic, and he’s more mature now. He’s a different fighter.”
Fowlkes: Guillard via TKO. I don’t know if it’ll come in the first round, but it will come. I don’t see Lauzon being able to get him on the mat, at least not for very long, and Guillard is too fast and too powerful on the feet.
Mo Lawal picks: Maynard, Florian, Sonnen, Nobody, Guillard
Ben Fowlkes picks: Edgar, Aldo, Stann, Phan, Guillard
Filed under: UFCWith UFC 136 just a day away, oddsmakers have made their picks and more or less dared you to disagree with them. You going to stand for that? I didn’t think so.
Let’s poke around and see where they might be wrong, this time with a litt…
Filed under: UFC
With UFC 136 just a day away, oddsmakers have made their picks and more or less dared you to disagree with them. You going to stand for that? I didn’t think so.
Let’s poke around and see where they might be wrong, this time with a little special help on the parlay from one of my MMA Fighting colleagues.
Frankie Edgar (-140) vs. Gray Maynard (+125)
At last, a title defense where Edgar is the favorite, however slight. The last time these two met, the champ was a +115 dog. I know, because I went back and looked at my own betting odds picks for UFC 125, which means I am now sufficiently humbled. Let’s just say I didn’t exactly knock that one out of the park, though I did pick Edgar when many thought he’d simply get held down for five rounds. Now that he’s proven not only his mutant healing abilities between rounds, but also his wrestling prowess, I’m not surprised that oddsmakers are giving him the slight edge.
Still, the line is so close that you aren’t going to profit all that much from taking the underdog flyer on Maynard. For those of you struggling to understand what +110 means, imagine yourself putting down $100 on Maynard and then making $110 if he wins. Also imagine yourself being very, very sad if he doesn’t. Then at least you’ll understand what you’re letting yourself in for if he can’t shove Edgar around for five rounds to become the new champ.
My pick: Edgar. He’s proven he can stay off his back against Maynard. If he can only stay out of the way of those power punches, he’ll be in business.
Florian is the kind of guy you want to root for, and by ‘you’ I mean me. He’s a diligent worker, a borderline obsessive student of the game, and a real thinking man’s fighter. One thing he’s not, at least so far, is championship material. Oddsmakers don’t seem to think that will change against Aldo, and I have to admit that I agree. Florian isn’t going to stand there and out-strike Aldo. Not without getting his legs turned to hamburger. He’ll have to put him down, but can he reliably do that, especially in the early rounds? I’m not so sure, at least not unless Aldo suffers through another brutal weight cut like the one he had before the Hominick fight. Florian’s best chance might come in the later rounds, but only if he can make it that long. Even then, he’ll probably be so behind on the scorecards that he’ll absolutely need to start finishing fights at 145 pounds. Easier said than done against the champ.
My pick: Aldo. Honestly, it’s not even worth a parlay pick at these odds, but neither is Florian worth the underdog risk.
Chael Sonnen (-260) vs. Brian Stann (+200)
If you know me, you know I have to have at least one big/somewhat reckless underdog pick per event. If I don’t, I go crazy and try to bait strangers at the gas station into giving me 3-1 odds on whether I can jump over a moving car (turns out I can’t; lesson learned). This time around, I had to take a hard look at Stann, who needs only to keep from getting out-wrestled in order to have a very good chance in this one. Normally, I wouldn’t like his chances to do even that, but Sonnen has been off for a very, very long time. Much of that time was spent trying to convince the California State Athletic Commission that he doesn’t mean what he says, except for when he does, and distractions like that are rarely helpful. Cage rust affects different fighters in different ways, but if I had to bet (and it’s kind of the purpose of this whole feature) I’d wager that Sonnen will be not quite as sharp as usual, and it’ll cost him.
My pick: Stann. I wouldn’t bet the house, or even the condo, but I will throw some small action on the real American hero this time around.
Joe Lauzon (+300) vs. Melvin Guillard (-450)
Back when he was an immature, though talented fighter who would beat himself more often than not when given a chance, Guillard was still a scary opponent. Now that he’s got his act together, dude is positively terrifying. Lauzon’s best chance is to get it to the mat and submit him, but the last time Guillard tapped out was in 2009, when he was foolish enough to shoot a takedown on Nate Diaz and get himself guillotined in the process. He’s a much smarter fighter than that now, so Lauzon better have a plan B. Matter of fact, he better have plans C-N, too, because I don’t see him shooting a double-leg and putting/keeping Guillard down long enough to submit him.
My pick: Guillard. Again, it’s not even juicy as a parlay addition, but what are you going to do?
Leonard Garcia (+175) vs. Nam Phan (-225)
Quick question: do we have different judges for the rematch? If so, then you have to give Phan the edge. If it’s the same people who think haymakers, whether they connect or not, are enough to win a fight, then take your chances with Garcia. Garcia’s problem isn’t just that he likes to brawl — it’s that he doesn’t like to do anything else, such as defend his face. He’s a great guy — one of the nicest and most down-to-earth in this business, really — and when he finds a willing dance partner, his style is fun to watch. It’s also predictable, and when opponents can keep from getting sucked into it he runs into problems.
My pick: Phan. This one might be more suitable as parlay material, but then you never know what those wacky judges will do.
Quick picks:
– Mike Massenzio (+125) over Steve Cantwell (-145). Massenzio will try to out-wrestle Cantwell, and Cantwell is susceptible to that. With these odds, Massenzio’s worth a small risk.
– Anthony Pettis (-285) over Jeremy Stephens (+225). You won’t get rich off of it, but this one is money in the bank.
The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Just because he’s a wild riverboat gambler with dollar signs in his eyes, and because I respect that sort of self-destructive impulse, I’ll let my colleague Matt Erickson call it this time. Take it away, Matt.
“A 4-leg parlay of ‘dogs on Saturday that pays $473 on a $10 bet:
Maynard +125
Stann +200
Santiago +225
Elkins +120
I’ve already spent my winnings. That’s how sure of that mofo I am.”
You heard the man. And if it doesn’t work out, you can let him know about it on Twitter: @MattErickson23
Filed under: UFC
If you have a computer and a Facebook account — and the mere fact that you are reading this suggests that you have at least one of those things — you might want to be sure and tune in to Saturday’s UFC 136 prelims. If several train…
Filed under: UFC
If you have a computer and a Facebook account — and the mere fact that you are reading this suggests that you have at least one of those things — you might want to be sure and tune in to Saturday’s UFC 136 prelims. If several trainers and MMA insiders are to be believed, that’s where you could catch a glimpse of a very bright prospect in the UFC’s heavyweight division.
Stipe Miocic (pronounced: steep-eh) is only 6-0 as a professional, but the former Golden Gloves boxer and college wrestling standout already has much of the fight world buzzing.
“I believe that guy could take it all the way. I really do,” said trainer Trevor Wittman, who worked with Miocic during the fighter’s visit to the Grudge Training Center in Denver recently. “He’s the next great heavyweight coming into the UFC. His composure, his attitude, his willingness to learn and be open to things, his toughness — it’s just all there.”
Marcus Marinelli, who is Miocic’s coach at the Strong Style Fight Team in Independence, Ohio, said that even the videos of his MMA fights that have made the rounds on the internet recently don’t necessarily do him justice.
“I think at times he’s fought down to the level of his opponent, so you don’t always see what I see in the gym,” Marinelli said. “But that’s going to change on Saturday night.”
Miocic first walked through the doors of the Strong Style gym after he’d been recruited to help former Pride and UFC fighter Dan Bobish prepare for a bout. He’d been a two-sport athlete at Cleveland State University, wrestling in the 197-pound class and drawing the attention of Major League scouts as a third baseman, but it was mainly his ability to help Bobish improve his wrestling and takedown defense that caught Marinelli’s eye at first, he said.
“He really helped Dan out a lot, but right away I saw his potential with his wrestling and athleticism. So little by little, he started training with us.”
As Miocic remembered with a laugh, he walked in as a training partner, “and then I never left the gym.”
Marinelli began slowly adding weapons to Miocic’s arsenal, he said, but soon the 6’3″, 240-pound fighter fell in love with boxing. The next thing Marinelli knew, Miocic was headed for the national Golden Gloves tournament in Salt Lake City.
“He made it as far as the quarterfinals, and I think he could have won the whole thing, but he just didn’t have as much boxing experience as some of those guys,” said Marinelli. Miocic had only been boxing for a little over a year at that point, but “still people were looking at him going, where did this kid come from?”
Now the 29-year-old is on the verge of his UFC debut against Joey Beltran at UFC 136 after less than two years as a professional. It was a bit of a surprise to him to get the call from the big show so soon in his career he said, but his coach wasn’t.
“Most people, you’d want them to have more fights, but he’s the exception to the rule,” Marinelli said. “He’s still got to come in and perform, but he’s got all the tools.”
Of course, it’s one thing to look good when you’re fighting bar bouncers and training room heroes in front of a couple thousand people in Cleveland. Taking on an experienced heavyweight on a UFC pay-per-view event isn’t even in the same zip code as far as nerves go, and the dreaded “Octagon jitters” have, more than once, turned prospects into flops before our very eyes.
It’s something Miocic has considered, he said, but has tried not to dwell on.
“I talked to Forrest Petz, who fought in the UFC, and he told me, ‘Man, it’s still just you and another guy,'” Miocic said. “That part doesn’t change.”
As Marinelli put it, “Nobody can say [jitters are] never a concern. Sure it’s a concern. But that’s what I’m here for and that’s what the other coaches are here for, to ensure that he walks in there he shows the true Stipe Miocic that we know.”
The Stipe they know just happens to be an undefeated wrecking machine who’s put away all six of his opponents, with none lasting beyond the second round. If they can get that same guy to show up in the UFC — and against UFC-caliber opponents — there’s no telling how far he could go.
Filed under: UFCUFC 136 may be the rare event to include two title fights, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still some men fighting for their livelihoods in Houston this Saturday night.
We all know that professional pugilism isn’t the line of work …
Filed under: UFC
UFC 136 may be the rare event to include two title fights, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still some men fighting for their livelihoods in Houston this Saturday night.
We all know that professional pugilism isn’t the line of work you go into if you really crave job security, but some of this weekend’s competitors are on much shakier ground than others, and it might take only one more loss to send them plummeting into the void of unemployment.
Who are they, and what are their chances to revive their careers with a win at UFC 136? For answers, we turn to The Cut List.
Nam Phan (16-9, 0-2 UFC)
Who he’s facing: Leonard Garcia
Why he’s in danger: Just like Garcia, Phan’s record is also skewed by some questionable judging. If he’d have gotten that decision in his UFC debut, he’d be sitting at 1-1 after his not-at-all questionable decision loss to Mike Brown in August. But as it is, he’s winless in the UFC, at least on paper, and you know what typically happens after you lose three in a row. Again, the edge in this fight likely goes to Phan, but in a way it might be more interesting to see what would happen if he were to lose. Would the UFC give him a mulligan on that first loss to Garcia, with the understanding that it was complete nonsense from the judges? Or would a second, more legitimate loss to Garcia make all that irrelevant anyway? Hard to say, but I’m sure he’d rather not find out.
Chances of getting cut: Unlikely. I think he beats Garcia more clearly and obviously the second time around, thus securing his status for at least a few more months. That is, if he can resist the siren’s song of a bonus-worthy street fight. We know Garcia’s game.
Eric Schafer (12-5-2, 3-4 UFC)
Who he’s facing: Aaron Simpson
Why he’s in danger: If Schafer’s name sounds familiar, that’s because he’s been around — in a manner of speaking — for a good little while. This will be his third stint with the UFC in five years, and let’s just say that the UFC isn’t known for handing out fourth chances, so he’d better make this one count. Schafer went 1-2 in his first Octagon installment and 2-2 in the second, but all his losses came against tough opponents like Michael Bisping, Stephan Bonnar, Ryan Bader, and Jason Brilz. If you’re going to get beat, those aren’t bad guys to get beat by, but then you turn around and look at his three UFC wins. Rob MacDonald, Houston Alexander, Antonio Mendes — none of them remained in the UFC for long after losing to Schafer, and that’s not a good sign. Now Schafer has dropped to middleweight and, like virtually every fighter who moves weight classes, seems convinced that it has changed everything for him. We’ll see if he’s right, but I wouldn’t get my hopes up.
Chances of getting cut: Very good. I sure wouldn’t want to fight a grinder like Simpson if my career was on the line. Schafer lacks the wrestling prowess of a Mark Munoz and the punching power of a Chris Leben, so I don’t see how he stops the “A-Train” here. I think he gets outwrestled and roughed up, and then I think the UFC gives him his participant ribbon and sends him home.
Steve Cantwell (7-4, 1-3 UFC)
Who he’s facing: Mike Massenzio
Why he’s in danger: Honestly, I’m a little surprised he hasn’t already been cut. He entered the UFC with a full head of steam as WEC light heavyweight champ, and then he enthusiastically bent Razak Al-Hassan’s arm out of shape in his Octagon debut. After that, however, he lost three in a row. Now he’s dropping to middleweight, which he should have done a long time ago, but it’s mildly amazing that the UFC let him hit a three-fight losing streak before either suggesting that he drop down or go win a few in the minors. As it stands, Cantwell’s claim to fame is that he won one of three fights against Brian Stann (and, sure, also the Al-Hassan arm snap thing), so if he wants to stick around at all after Saturday, he absolutely, positively needs to win.
Chances of getting cut: Good. Massenzio is a beatable opponent for Cantwell, but by no means an easy one. If he wins, he stays. If he loses, he’s gone for sure. Dan Hardy might get to lose four straight, but Cantwell is no Dan Hardy.
Mike Massenzio (12-5, 1-3 UFC)
Who he’s facing: Steve Cantwell
Why he’s in danger: Massenzio got cut after going 1-2 his first time around, but earned himself some points with the UFC when he took a fight out of his weight class on extremely short notice at UFC 131. Even though that resulted in an ugly decision loss to Krzysztof Soszynski, it represented him stepping up and doing the UFC a solid just to get back in there. Now, as is customary, he gets a fight back in his own weight class and with adequate time to prepare. That’s the UFC’s version of repaying a favor, and if Massenzio can’t capitalize on it he’ll find himself all out of brownie points.
Chances of getting cut: Good/Very good. I give Cantwell the slight edge, but it’s very slight. Whoever loses this one is probably also going to lose his job, and let’s just say Massenzio is not the favorite.