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UFC 189 Fight Card: Odds, Projected Winner for Mendes vs. McGregor, Top Fights

Saturday night in Las Vegas, the hottest fighter in MMA will climb into the cage to face one of the elite fighters in his division as Conor McGregor battles Chad Mendes for the interim featherweight title. Mendes is a late replacement for reigning feat…

It’s a disappointment that Aldo once more will fail to defend his title, but Mendes vs. McGregor is not much of a step down in terms of potential fireworks and drama. McGregor has electrified crowds, but against Mendes, we’ll truly get to see how good the Irishman really is.

A former All-American wrestler, Mendes has lost just twice in his career, both times to Aldo. Against the rest of the featherweight division, he has been a dominant, grinding fighter.

Both men have the potential to finish things off in exciting fashion. The odds on this fight reflect the fact, with McGregor and Mendes going off nearly even.

According to Odds Shark, McGregor is a modest favorite of minus-185. Mendes is an underdog of just plus-160. Considering the popularity of McGregor, that’s a very tight line.

My feeling is Mendes will pull off a minor upset in this fight and finally capture a version of the world title. From the perspective of building storylines, it would be more exciting for McGregor to sleep Mendes in dramatic fashion and then build even longer toward a showdown with Aldo.

But it’s all about reality in the cage. Realistically, McGregor certainly has a shot at winning this fight by knockout.

But Mendes will use his elite wrestling to grind out a rough, hard-fought decision. He’ll manage to hang tough on his feet and then use the clinch to score with dirty boxing and push the fight to where he wants it to happen, on the mat and against the cage.

Odds and Predictions for Rest of the Main Card

If Odds Shark has things tight for McGregor and Mendes, it’s got them even closer for the co-main event, Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler. MacDonald is a slight favorite at just minus-170, and Lawler is the underdog at plus-150.

Lawler, age 33, is one of the sport’s most experienced veterans and a historical tie-in to the old days of Pat Miletich’s elite fighting squads. It took him 14 years and 10 losses before he finally captured the world title, but after his title win over champion Johny Hendricks last December, few would question his elite status.

At just 25, MacDonald has to be viewed as something of a prodigy. He’s intelligent, athletic and a well-rounded fighter in general. One of his only two career losses came against Lawler by split decision in 2013.

MacDonald’s other loss was against Carlos Condit in 2010. It was a Round 3 TKO loss in a Fight of the Night effort. At the time, Condit was one of the stars of the division, and MacDonald had yet to turn 21.

I hate to pick against a veteran like Lawler, but a young athlete with MacDonald’s skills and intelligence just won’t lose a rematch of a close fight from two years ago against a much older fighter.

MacDonald will get the better of some crisp striking on the feet and will manage to secure a takedown and a dominant position in at least one round to earn a decision win.

Two experienced featherweights in their primes will face off when Jeremy Stephens meets Dennis Bermudez. It’s frankly surprising that Odds Shark has this one as close as it does. It lists Bermudez at just minus-210.

The well-traveled Stephens is an underdog of just plus-175. It’s difficult to reconcile betting on him in this fight for such a low payout.

Stephens is coming off of two losses. While only a year older than Bermudez, he’s got a lot more miles on his tires. Expect Bermudez to use his strong wrestling background to control the fight and beat Stephens up to win by late TKO.

In yet another close fight on this card, Odds Shark has welterweight Brandon Thatch as a minor favorite at minus-175, with Gunnar Nelson listed as a plus-155 underdog.

This is a very tough pick to make. Thatch showed true game before losing by submission to former lightweight champion Benson Henderson. But I’m going to pick Nelson, a Renzo Gracie black belt, to win by submission.

By far the biggest underdog on the main card is Brad Pickett. Odds Shark has him as plus-610 and his opponent, Thomas Almeida, as a minus-920 favorite.

I can’t disagree with this one. The undefeated Almeida is a 23-year-old phenom. The bantamweight represents the legendary Chute Boxe Academy.

Almeida is 19-0 with 14 KOs and four submissions. Expect him to record another one Saturday. There’s a good chance it will be one of the main things fight fans are discussing afterward.

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Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort: Final Predictions and Odds Before UFC 187

It will be a classic, intergenerational showdown in the co-main event of UFC 187 Saturday night in Las Vegas, when middleweight champion Chris Weidman defends the belt against veteran Vitor Belfort. Belfort is a true legend of the sport, and his …

Weidman, meanwhile, has been assembling a legendary career of his own. So far undefeated, he exploded into the limelight in July 2013 when he knocked out Anderson Silva, one of the most dominant champions in UFC history.

Weidman is arguably the hottest fighter in the sport right now. He’s a former All-American wrestler with basic, but extremely effective, striking and dangerous submissions.

Weidman has victories over outstanding wrestlers like Mark Munoz and top strikers like Silva and Lyoto Machida. In beating Demian Maia, he handled arguably the best pure BJJ fighter in the UFC.

Weidman’s youth, size and well-rounded game have made him a justifiable favorite for this bout. According to Odds Shark, Weidman is anywhere from a -375 to -500 favorite. Belfort is an underdog of between +310 and +375.

There will definitely be bettors interested in taking Belfort at those odds. He’s one of the biggest names in the sport’s history for a reason.

Belfort was the UFC’s original phenom, exploding onto the scene at just 18. He was an all-action, knockout machine.

In his UFC debut in 1997, he knocked out both Tra Telligman and Scott Ferrozzo, in a combined two minutes and 10 seconds. A few months later he stopped Tank Abbott in less than a minute.

Those are performances that longtime fans have never forgotten. And you don’t have to dig into ancient history to find examples of Belfort laying a path of destruction. His three most recent fights were sensational stoppages of Mike Bisping, Luke Rockhold and Dan Henderson.

Belfort’s sudden power makes him a threat in any fight he enters. The memories of Belfort winning in a hurry no doubt contributed to UFC featherweight Jose Aldo’s prediction with Portal do Vale Tudo that his countryman would win in the first or second round.

“Vitor is a phenom,” said Aldo, stating what has been obvious for nearly 20 years now.

A potential opponent for the winner, Ronaldo Jacare focused more on the two fighters as they are right now when he picked Weidman to win for Globo Esporte, noting that the younger champion is at “a better stage” in his career.

Belfort’s dangerous striking can never be discounted, but it’s tough to see him winning this fight in any manner besides an early stoppage. Weidman is younger, bigger and stronger than Belfort, and his high-level wrestling will allow him to control the terrain of the battle.

Even though Weidman is only a brown belt to Belfort’s black, I’d still give the Renzo Gracie student an edge when it comes to the submission game, due to his much stronger wrestling.

Weidman has a lot in common with one of Belfort’s toughest past opponents, Randy Couture. He’s a powerful wrestler who has learned to strike very effectively in an MMA bout.

I see Weidman using his wrestling to force a lot of clinches in the early rounds, neutralizing Belfort’s ability to get off with dangerous punches or kicks. By the second half of the fight, he will have the older man fatigued, allowing him to win by TKO or choke in Round 4.

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Anthony Johnson vs. Daniel Cormier: Keys to Victory for Each Fighter at UFC 187

For the first time in over five years, there will be a UFC light heavyweight title fight that does not involve Jon Jones, as Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson meet for the vacant 205-pound belt Saturday night in Las Vegas. Cormier already lost to Jone…

But Jones was stripped of the title following a hit-and-run accident in late April, and Cormier was given this second chance against the surging Johnson. With Jones out of the picture, this event lacks some of the star power it might otherwise have had. Nevertheless, it is a matchup between two of the division’s elite fighters.

The keys to victory for both fighters follow:

Cormier must use wrestling to control where the fight happens and to rough Johnson up

Cormier is perhaps the most decorated wrestler in the UFC. He was a two-time, undefeated national champion at the junior college level and reached the NCAA finals his senior year in college, only to lose to the legendary Cal Sanderson.

Beyond that, he was the U.S. national freestyle champion for most of the first decade of this century and was named captain of the 2008 Olympic team. He won a world title at the cadet level in high school.

Amateur wrestling styles do not always translate perfectly into MMA, where striking is added to the equation. But Cormier has scored highlight-reel takedowns against some very good MMA wrestlers during his career, including Josh Barnett and fellow Olympian Dan Henderson.

Johnson is a strong wrestler in his own right. He was also a National Junior College champ.

But the wrestling advantage is decisively in Cormier’s favor. That gives him a tremendous tactical edge.

Johnson has dangerous punching power, but the best way to remove that kind of threat in MMA is to use wrestling. Cormier should be able to use his wrestling to consistently put Johnson on his back or against the cage, where Johnson’s slugging prowess will be rendered irrelevant.

But Cormier can’t be satisfied merely to pin Johnson against the cage or lie on top of him. When he gets in those dominant positions, he’s got to put some hurt on Johnson. In the clinch, against the cage, he has to control Johnson’s center line, so he can use dirty boxing to land uppercuts and short hooks.

When he gets on top of Johnson, he’s got to stay busy as well, or risk having the fight stood back up. Cormier needs to use forearms, hammerfists and knees to the torso to soften Johnson up and open up a possible route to the submission.

Losing a one-sided fight to Jones in January had to be very disappointing for Cormier, so it’s important in this fight that he avoids letting his emotions take control of him, which could lead him to unnecessarily dangerous exchanges.

Cormier has legitimate punching power and credible striking. But it’s always a risk that an MMA fighter will fall in love with whatever his newest talent is, due to the quick progress he is making in that area. For Cormier, a wild exchange with Johnson is the riskiest place he can be.

So Cormier needs to rely on his base and embrace the grind in this fight

Cormier’s wrestling should mean he spends the majority of the fight in a dominant position. So the longer the fight lasts, the more likely he is to win.

For Johnson, the most important thing in the fight will be to keep it standing

To my eyes, one of the most comparable fighters to Johnson is former light heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell. Like Liddell, Johnson is an explosive striker, but with a strong college wrestling background that allows him to use wrestling defensively, to keep a fight standing.

Johnson has to stuff Cormier’s takedowns. But beyond that, he needs to do it in a way that allows him to make enough space to aggressively counterstrike.

Johnson has the skills to win that kind of fight, as he demonstrated against Phil Davis, another elite amateur wrestler. Still, Cormier is a better wrestler and a bigger banger than Davis. Against Cormier, Johnson has to be wary of getting caught by a big shot in return.

While Johnson needs to be looking for a fight-ending punch or kick, he’s got to be careful about overcommitting to a wild strike. He has to be tactical with his striking and look for punches and kicks that will land at a high percentage.

A wild swing and miss against Cormier is all that the former Olympian will need to land a brutal takedown. If Johnson misses with a punch and leaves an entire side of his body expose to Cormier, he will go for a ride and land with a heavy thud.

There are more tactical advantages for Cormier in this fight, but Johnson has the sort of explosive power that can end things extremely quickly. This fight won’t be a non-stop slugfest. Both men are too heavy-fisted for that.

Expect moments of strategic chess-playing in this fight. But there is also a lot of potential for things to end in an explosive hurry.

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Shahbulat Shamhalaev Set to Face Rad Martinez in Bellator Featherweight Final

Without a doubt, one of the most exciting fighters to emerge on the United States MMA scene in 2012 has been Dagestan native and Bellator featherweight Shahbulat Shamhalaev. The M1 veteran has so far progressed through the Season 7 tournament by crushi…

He won his first round matchup with Cody Bollinger by brutal ground-and-pound TKO at 4:49 of the first round. Against semi-final opponent Michael Richman, he delivered a highlight-reel, one-punch KO at just 1:49 of the first frame.

On Friday, Dec. 7, he will meet veteran Rad Martinez in the tournament final. The winner will go on to face Bellator featherweight champion Pat Curran.

I caught up with Shamhalaev earlier this week at the Ultimate Athletic training facility in Ithaca, N.Y., headquarters of his training camp, Team Bombsquad. The interview was conducted with the assistance of Shamhalaev‘s handheld translator and with the help of his trainer, Ryan Ciotoli.

Dagestan is a republic in the Northern Caucasus region on the Caspian Sea, a member of the former USSR that remains a federal subject of Russia. Bordered by Chechnya to the west, it is a conflict-plagued region and an extremely tough place to grow up in the wake of the Soviet collapse two decades ago.

It is also an absolute hotbed for the combat sports, a tough region that develops tough athletes. “Wrestling is our No. 1 one sport,” Shamhalaev told me.

Ciotoli, a two-time NCAA Division III runner up, filled in more details:

I already knew about Dagestan before Sha came to train with us, because of wrestling. When I got the chance to train with the Russian national team in 2003, I found out a lot of their top guys were actually from Dagestan. Even a lot of other countries in Eastern Europe, theyre actually represented by guys from Dagestan who move there to wrestle internationally.

“In the last Olympics, 10 medals in judo and wrestling (were won by) people from Dagestan,” Shamhalaev added with pride. “Five gold.”

To put this fact into context, consider that Dagestan has a population of about 2.9 million people. So we’re talking about a country with a population roughly the same size as Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont combined.

“In M1,” Shamhalaev continued, “(There are) six weight classes. Four champions from Dagestan.”

“Two of them are from his gym,” Ciotoli added.

Still, despite the widespread popularity of combat sports in the former Soviet Republics, earning a living at them remains a formidable challenge.

“The money is horrible. Five hundred to show and five to win,” said Ciotoli. “Maybe a thousand and a thousand for a guy at Sha‘s level.”

The low fighter pay is not a result of low ticket prices, though. Shamhalaev showed me a photo of an M1 octagon and pointed to the cage side area. “Tickets here, five thousand dollars. If Putin comes,” he added, referring to the Russian President and well known MMA enthusiast, “They cost 10 thousand.”

Despite the difficulty in making ends meet as a fighter, Shamhalaev is a testimony to the obvious advantages a young fighter has there when trying to develop a well-rounded MMA game. Says Ciotoli:

His wrestling is very good. He says it’s poor, because he is used to training with international level competitors. But he’s actually at a good American college level. He’s got national qualifier type wrestling.

Still, Shamhalaev came to the United States with a reputation as a kickboxer and his performance so far in the Bellator tournament has done nothing to diminish this.

In his last fight against Richman, he looked absolutely Anderson Silva-esque, luring his opponent in, easily eluding his attacks, and then countering with murderous precision.

I asked Bombsquad Muay Thai trainer Primo Bellarosa, a former National champion with years of international experience, why Shamhalaev is such an effective striker:

He’s extremely fast. He’s an excellent counter-puncher and you need good speed and eye sight for that. He rarely makes you just miss. He makes you miss and pay for it. It’s rarely a break even. Besides that, he’s a thinker in the cage. He’ll kick low, kick low, then look low and go high. He’ll throw a punch just to see what you’ll do. He’ll study your defensive tendency and then feed it, knowing how you’ll react and what he will do to counter.

Obviously nobody is penciling Shamhalaev in for a title fight just yet. He’ll have a very tough opponent to get by first, in Rad Martinez.

If Martinez’s own road to the finals has been less dominant than Shamhalaev‘s, he has also demonstrated the kind of grind-it-out tenacity that signals he should never be viewed as an easy out for anybody.

His semi-final win came over BJJ black belt Wagnney Fabiano, the fighter many viewed as the tournament favorite going in.

The former NCAA All-American is a gigantic featherweight with a compelling back story of his own. In June of 2011 he was the subject of an ESPN Outside the Lines documentary profiling his role as a caretaker for his paraplegic father.

This exciting match up will be broadcast live on MTV 2.

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Anthony Leone to Meet Former Bellator Bantamweight Champ Zach Makovsky

On December 7 in Atlantic City, New Jersey, Anthony Leone will meet former Bellator 135-pound champion Zach Makovsky in a featured bantamweight fight. The card will be broadcast live on MTV 2.I interviewed Leone earlier this week as he was nearing the …

On December 7 in Atlantic City, New Jersey, Anthony Leone will meet former Bellator 135-pound champion Zach Makovsky in a featured bantamweight fight. The card will be broadcast live on MTV 2.

I interviewed Leone earlier this week as he was nearing the end of his preparations for this high-profile clash. The fight with Makovsky will cap off an eventful year for the Long Island native and Ithaca, New York-based member of the Team Bombsquad camp.

In February, Leone beat BJJ brown belt Paul Gorman by second-round armbar on a card in Lewiston, Maine. In May he returned to action for Bellator, taking a split decision from Claudio Ledesma.

Almost immediately after that fight Leone departed for a five-month stay in Thailand. While a trip to Thailand for most 25-year-old Americans would represent an expatriate diversion, for a professional MMA fighter like Leone it was every bit a business trip.

He trained with Phuket Top Team, joining his brother Andrew, who lives in Thailand full-time and fights for the 1FC promotion. “I was training at least twice a day, six days a week,” says Leone. “I did a lot of work on my BJJ and of course my Muy Thai.”

It was clearly a very positive experience for the young up-and-comer. “It’s really relaxed there,” he explained. “And everything is very cheap. The food is very healthy and because it’s so cheap you don’t have to make all your own food at home to save money. It’s just very convenient lifestyle for a fighter.”

Leone returned to the States just in time to compete at the IBJJF World No Gi championships in Long Beach, California, where he placed third in the purple belt division. Then it was back to Ithaca to prepare for the Bellator Card.

His first fight since returning stateside will be a tough one. A former Division One wrestler at Drexel University, Makovsky is an explosive athlete with a huge gas tank.

“I think I’m moving on the right path in my career,” says Leonne. “I’m happy where I am. But right now I’m just thinking about winning this fight I have in front of me.”

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Randy Couture’s Comments on Sonnen-Henderson Demonstrate Why Wrestling Rules MMA

During my sophomore and junior years of high school I beat the crap out of one of my best buddies twice a week, regular as clockwork.He was a great guy. If I felt like drinking beer during the offseason, he was one of the first dudes I called. Girls li…

During my sophomore and junior years of high school I beat the crap out of one of my best buddies twice a week, regular as clockwork.

He was a great guy. If I felt like drinking beer during the offseason, he was one of the first dudes I called. Girls liked him better than me, so he was worth hanging out with just for that reason alone.

But he wanted my spot on the varsity wrestling lineup. So, when it came down to it, I was perfectly happy to grind him into the mat. He didn’t take it personally.

Now, I’m talking about a level of competition that was light years below what happens during the Olympic trials. We were a small school in a small state.

But it’s the exact same attitude MMA legend Randy Couture was referring to when he spoke about the possibility of a Chael Sonnen-Dan Henderson fight during a recent Cage Junkies interview. Addressing the possibility of a potential fight between Henderson and Sonnen, Couture said:

“Yeah I think they’d fight. They’ve wrestled each other for a spot on the Olympic team, they’re wrestlers at the end of the day and now they’re fighters, they’re professionals, this is what we do.”

I’ve heard Couture make similar statements often over the years. Again and again, the always affable Captain America has explained that fighting a guy he likes is no big deal because he’s used to competing against some of his best friends in the wrestling room.

Now, there is surely a difference between punching a guy in the face and taking him down and pinning his shoulders to the mat. But if you think the difference is that substantial, then I have to say you have probably never wrestled.

After he won the first of his three NCAA wrestling titles, current Cornell senior Kyle Dake had barely caught his breath when he told the press: “If you watched the first 30 seconds, we were basically punching each other in the face, but we’re wrestlers.”

Dake, the first wrestler ever to win NCAA titles in three separate weight classes, sounded absolutely cheerful as he made this observation.

An aside: Dake is on track to become only the third four-time NCAA champion in history. He will probably give international wrestling a go, but if he goes into MMA, he will be a serious contender for any 155 or 170 titles from the day he declares.

Being able to beat the crap out of somebody without being mad enough to take it personally is a skill all by itself. Being able to beat up a guy you are friends with just because that is what you are doing today takes a certain mindset.

Beyond the obvious skills that a wrestling background provides an MMA competitor, these intangibles are crucial.

An elite wrestling background allows an MMA fighter to dictate where the fight will take place. But an elite wrestling background also gives an MMA competitor a mental edge that a contemporary American athlete would be hard pressed to pick up anywhere else.

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