Author: Chad Dundas

UFC 219: Holly Holm Out to Beat MMA’s Unbeatable Women’s Champion…Again

Holly Holm admits she’s feeling a twinge of deja vu leading up to UFC 219.
As she prepares to fight Cris “Cyborg” Justino for the women’s featherweight title Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Holm has a chance to shock the world all over again.
…

Holly Holm admits she’s feeling a twinge of deja vu leading up to UFC 219.

As she prepares to fight Cris “Cyborg” Justino for the women’s featherweight title Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Holm has a chance to shock the world all over again.

This will be the second time she’s climbed into the Octagon with one of MMA‘s unbeatable champions—and we all remember what happened the first time.

Holm’s astonishing head kick knockout of Ronda Rousey at UFC 193 in November 2015 caused a tectonic shift in the landscape of the sport. It ended Rousey’s reign as both bantamweight champ and the UFC’s biggest draw while simultaneously teeing Holm up to be the fight company’s next female superstar.

Unfortunately, that star turn never fully materialized, as Holm went on to drop her next three fights in a row.

If the Rousey victory was one of MMA’s biggest surprises, Holm’s consecutive losses to Miesha Tate, Valentina Shevchenko and Germaine de Randamie turned it into one of the sport’s greatest missed opportunities.

Those defeats fashioned Holm into an odd figure in combat sports. Her previous professional boxing experience and hot start on the independent MMA scene made her the hottest of hot prospects. The victory over Rousey had her poised to cash in on that considerable potential. Then she squandered it, effectively dropping out of the conversation as current bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes took over the division.

Now against Justino, Holm will get something approaching a do-over.

In one fell swoop she might change much of what we think of her, becoming a two-time, two-division UFC champion and rebooting herself at 145-pounds. She’s going off as nearly a 3-to-1 underdog to Cyborg, according to Odds Shark, but represents perhaps the most interesting stylistic challenge of the ferocious titlist’s career.

Holm excels when her opponents bring the fight to her and Cyborg is nothing if not dependably aggressive. Justino won’t be as reckless as Rousey was and she’ll be even more dangerous but—after UFC 193—fans are already used to seeing Holm do the impossible.

“I think there are similarities with the feeling of it,” Holm said during last week’s UFC 219 media call. “Just knowing that people are having a little bit of doubt. To be the underdog [again] and come in—I think people think, ‘Oh, OK, well Holly is capable of doing some [surprising] things.'”

Certainly, Justino appears as invincable now as Rousey did then. Cyborg may have a far less cozy partnership with the UFC than the one Rousey enjoyed, but the results have been just as dominant.

Unbeaten since her professional debut in 2005, Justino has amassed a record of 18-1-1, including 11 straight knockouts. Along the way she’s established a reputation as one of the most fearsome fighters in MMA history.

Her only recent career hiccups include a positive steroid test in 2011 that turned a successful Strikeforce title defense into a no contest and an icy relationship with the UFC, which has kept her from taking her rightful place among the organization’s biggest drawing cards.

Like Holm letting the wave of notoriety she got by beating Rousey stale into disappointment, Cyborg has also spent much of her career in the Octagon watching the biggest opportunities float slowly by.

For years, fans hungered for a Justino vs. Rousey super fight, but Cyborg’s inability to make the 135-pound limit—and perhaps Rousey’s unwillingness to take the fight in the first place—ultimately made it impossible. After years of public spats and dead-end negotiations, Cyborg didn’t even arrive in the UFC until May 2016, six months after Holm laid Rousey flat.

Even after officially becoming a UFC property, Justino’s path has been fairly rocky.

Early on matchmakers didn’t seem to know what to do with her, booking her in a series of 140-pound catchweight attractions. When the company finally moved to create a featherweight division, another negotiating stalemate kept Justino out of the inaugural title bout. Instead, De Randamie defeated Holm at UFC 208 to become the first 145-pound women’s champ in promotional history.

Still, Cyborg’s shadow loomed large. De Randamie spent just 128 disastrous days with the title before the UFC stripped her, citing her refusal to defend against Justino.

Cyborg defeated InvictaFC bantamweight champ Tonya Evinger via third-round TKO to claim the vacant title in July 2017. Afterward, the fight company hit the reset button, booking the fight it wanted from the beginning: Cyborg vs. Holm.

Holm made the bout possible by following up her loss to De Randamie by heading back to bantamweight and scoring a rehabilitative knockout over Bethe Correia in June 2017. Given the shallow nature of the new featherweight class—where the UFC doesn’t even offer rankings on its official website—that was good enough to make her attractive as Cyborg’s next opponent.

For her part, Justino says she has known this fight was coming since the night she watched Holm KO Rousey.

“I watched the fight,” Cyborg said during the UFC 219 media call. “On that day, I was making plans to fight Ronda, but when Holly beat Ronda, I said one day soon, I’m going to fight Holly.”

It will be a massive opportunity for both fighters, especially Holm.

For the Albuquerque, New Mexico native it’s a chance to beat yet another MMA icon and to pair her improbable victory over Rousey with one perhaps even more unexpected.

Despite the fact Holm’s own UFC career hasn’t quite lived-up to expectations, defeating both Justino and Rousey would seal a unique, if admittedly strange, legacy for her.

Becoming featherweight champion would have obvious privileges. For Holm, it could be the difference between being remembered as an also-ran and retiring among the all-time greats.

The fledgling 145-pound title offers new life to the handful of contenders ready to step up from bantamweight. If Holm can become champion there, it could set up a series of interesting and promotable matchups for her against contenders like Cat Zingano, Megan Anderson or even Nunes.

Maybe Holm could even close out her career in a style befitting the hype fostered by her win over Rousey.

Instead of being remembered as a one-hit wonder, she might go down as MMA’s giant killer.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

10 Fighters Who Took the UFC by Storm During 2017

By now we’ve all heard the takes about how 2017 was a down year for the UFC.
With all of its biggest draws either easing into semi-retirement, suspended for one reason or another or out chasing big-money boxing matches, the world’s largest MMA promoter…

By now we’ve all heard the takes about how 2017 was a down year for the UFC.

With all of its biggest draws either easing into semi-retirement, suspended for one reason or another or out chasing big-money boxing matches, the world’s largest MMA promoter had to make do with what it had on hand.

The results—with a few notable exceptions—were largely forgettable. As the year comes to a close, combat sports fans are more likely to remember 2017 for Conor McGregor’s wild boxing match with Floyd Mayweather Jr., than anything that actually happened inside the Octagon.

Not that it was all bad.

Some people made the best of it. In fact, some of the UFC’s top up-and-coming talent had themselves great years.

Here’s a look at which fighters took the Octagon by storm during 2017 and what might be ahead for them in 2018.

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UFC on Fox 26: Rafael dos Anjos Repaints Title Picture by Beating Robbie Lawler

No clear-cut No. 1 contender in the UFC welterweight division?
Rafael dos Anjos has something to say about that.
Dos Anjos’ masterful unanimous decision win over Robbie Lawler Saturday at UFC on Fox 26 should repaint the 170-pound title picture&m…

No clear-cut No. 1 contender in the UFC welterweight division?

Rafael dos Anjos has something to say about that.

Dos Anjos’ masterful unanimous decision win over Robbie Lawler Saturday at UFC on Fox 26 should repaint the 170-pound title picture—putting the former lightweight champion front and center.

For the last few years, the road to the welterweight title has run through Lawler. In besting him (50-45 x3) over five rounds at Bell MTS Place in Winnipeg, Canada, Dos Anjos proved he’s ready for a shot at reigning champ Tyron Woodley.

If and when he gets that fight, it’ll give Dos Anjos the opportunity to enter the exclusive club of fighters who’ve won gold in two different UFC weight classes.

Predictions that he would be too small to compete at 170 or that his cardio couldn‘t hold up over 25 minutes with a larger man have proven incorrect. At this point, Dos Anjos is more than just a lightweight trying to find new life at a heavier weight. He’s a bonafide championship threat.

Things couldn’t have gone better for him against Lawler. Early and often, Dos Anjos scored with low kicks, leaving the bottom half of Lawler’s lead leg bruised and swelling. Near the end of the fight, Lawler was clearly struggling with an injured leg, though it was unclear if it was from RDA’s kicks or a grappling exchange that occurred midway through the bout.

Meanwhile, Dos Anjos utilized good head movement, fluid punching combinations, a variety of kicks and even a few flying knees.

By the time he was through, the pack of up-and-coming welterweight contenders jockeying for a crack at Woodley had a new leader.

“I have been doing this for so long and tonight was a real pleasure,” Dos Anjos told UFC play-by-play man Jon Anik after the fight. “Robbie Lawler is a legend and my hands are hurting … I feel like he had a very tough head.”

Dos Anjos’ run with the 155-pound title in 2015-16 duly established him as an aggressive striker and hard-nosed grappler. High-profile wins over Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone made it impossible to deny the 33-year-old Brazilian is one of the UFC’s toughest outs.

After back-to-back losses to Eddie Alvarez and Tony Ferguson during 2016, however, Dos Anjos was in need of a career reboot. He jumped up to the welterweight division and immediately made a splash.

He scored wins over Tarec Saffiedine and Neil Magny during the second half of 2017. While a bit undersized for 170 pounds, Dos Anjos’ never-say-die attitude and durability has so far proved enough to carry him.

That mindset was well on display in this important contender bout against Lawler.

Dos Anjos’ best moments of an impressive all-around performance may have come in the second round. In that stanza, Dos Anjos stunned Lawler with a left hook and then poured on a 23-second barrage of punches against the fence.

Lawler came away from the exchange smiling, but it was clear the bout was starting to slip away from him. With it, so too went Lawler’s best immediate chance to reassert himself as the No. 1 contender.

Lawler entered this fight just three months before turning 36 years old. As a mainstay of the elite MMA scene since 2002 and a veteran of 41 professional fights, legitimate questions have been raised about how long he can soldier on as one of the Octagon’s best-known purveyors of violence.

He can trace his UFC lineage back to the early 2000s and the Miletich Fighting System team that forged such legendary former champions as Matt Hughes and Pat Miletich. It’s possible, however, Lawler’s complete body of work will have surpassed either Miletich or Hughes by the time he calls it a career.

His second stint in the UFC and Cinderella run to the welterweight title in 2014 cemented his status as an all-time great and one of the fight company’s best-loved figures. But after dropping the title to Woodley at UFC 201, the San Diego, California, native has slowed a bit.

Prior to meeting Dos Anjos, Lawler fought just once since the Woodley bout. That was a unanimous decision win over Donald Cerrone at UFC 214. That fight—against another transplanted lightweight—proved he was still dangerous, but didn’t completely revitalize his status as a contender.

Against Dos Anjos, Lawler looked ready and always game, but perhaps as though he’d lost a step during his recent spate of inactivity.

Meanwhile, Dos Anjos socked away his third win of the year, looking like he’s just now hitting his prime.

Dos Anjos’ win should clear up what had been a murky race to be Woodley’s next title challenger.

Since taking the title from Lawler in July 2016, Woodley hasn’t been able to bring a spark to the top of the 170-pound division. Title defenses against Stephen Thompson and Demian Maia haven’t moved the needle or impressed critics.

Likewise, Woodley’s efforts to chase down a big money fight against somebody like Nate Diaz or Georges St-Pierre have been unsuccessful.

The list of contenders behind Woodley hasn’t done much to help, either.

Thompson defeated Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision at UFC 217, but his second bout with Woodley at UFC 209 was such a stinker, matchmakers would be hard-pressed to grant him another shot at the title.

Newcomer Colby Covington jumped up to take the No. 3 ranking after his win over Maia in October. Yet, boosting Covington into a title shot at this stage would feel premature.

The same is true of other up-and-coming young guns like Darren Till, Santiago Ponzinibbio or Kamaru Usman.

At this stage, it’s time to match Woodley up with Dos Anjos.

Even if that bout doesn’t do huge numbers on pay-per-view, it would excite hardcore fans.

After jetting past Lawler, it’s also clear Dos Anjos might have the skills to give Woodley the fight fans have been waiting to see.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

Robbie Lawler Is UFC’s Godfather of Violence, but How Long Can He Keep It Up?

On the heels of his third-round knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 218 on Dec. 2, Eddie Alvarez declared himself the most violent man in the Octagon.
“I want the best fights, I want them to be violent, and I want the fans to be jumping and screami…

On the heels of his third-round knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 218 on Dec. 2, Eddie Alvarez declared himself the most violent man in the Octagon.

“I want the best fights, I want them to be violent, and I want the fans to be jumping and screaming the same way they were on Dec. 2 in Detroit,” Alvarez said on this week’s The MMA Hour with Ariel Helwani. “That felt good to me, so I want to continue to feel good about the fights that I’m in.”

This isn’t a new concept in combat sports, obviously. Especially in MMA, there has always been a class of fighters whose pride in putting on exciting slugfests allows them to exist outside the rat race of traditional divisional title pictures.

From Tank Abbott to Wanderlei Silva to Donald Cerrone and now Alvarez, there’s a special niche for people who prioritize action and entertainment over mere wins and losses.

But if Alvarez has anointed himself the UFC’s new god of violence, clearly Robbie Lawler remains its godfather.

Lawler’s meeting with Rafael dos Anjos Saturday in the main event of UFC on Fox 26 will be his 19th fight in the Octagon and his 41st overall since turning pro in 2001. During two separate stints in the UFC, as well as significant runs in EliteXC and Strikeforce, he established himself as one of the preeminent purveyors of violence in the sport’s modern era.

Any similar status enjoyed by younger fighters like Alvarez, Cerrone and Gaethje must necessarily share a lineage with—and likely owe a debt of gratitude to—the path walked by Lawler.

However, as he approaches what will almost certainly be his last fight before he turns 36 next March, it’s unclear how long Lawler can go on carrying that torch.

Since returning to the UFC from Strikeforce in 2013, he’s gone 9-2, won (and lost) the UFC welterweight championship, collected five of the fight company’s performance-based bonuses and had two bouts that were declared the Fight of the Year by various media outlets.

His feud with Johny Hendricks over the 170-pound title in 2014 and his UFC 189 tangle with Rory MacDonald in 2015 are both all-time greats.

As a man of very few words, he’s never given any indication he’s ever wanted to be anything other than professional MMA fighter.

Yet Lawler has started to slow down in recent years.

After fighting four times during 2014—a year he capped by winning the welterweight title from Hendricks at UFC 181—he’s navigated the ensuing years at a more deliberate pace. Lawler fought just once in 2015, though that appearance was his vicious slobberknocker with MacDonald.

Assuming he makes the date against Dos Anjos this weekend, Lawler will have fought twice each year in 2016 and 2017. After losing his title to Tyron Woodley via first-round knockout at UFC 201, he’s competed just once during the last 18 months—a unanimous decision victory over Cerrone at UFC 214.

Lawler has never talked much about retirement. Then again, he’s never talked much about anything, at least not with the media.

His quiet stoicism has become part of his appeal, as fans learned to love his low-key assurances that bad things were about to happen. Take, for example, Lawler’s comment on a potential welterweight matchup with Conor McGregor during the summer of 2016:

Against Dos Anjos, Lawler will face another former champion who moved up from 155 pounds midway through 2017 and has since won two straight fights.

The size difference will be noticeable between Lawler and Dos Anjos, but the 33-year-old Brazil native also has a long history as an aggressive, hard-nosed fighter with good all-around skills. Historically, it’s the sort of fight that Lawler would win, but OddsShark has the two going off in a near dead heat.

How Lawler fares here might tell us a lot about how much he has left in the tank. Leading up to their bout, MMA Junkie’s Mike Bohn and Abbey Subhan compiled some stats that starkly demonstrate how much damage he’s taken in recent years:

“Lawler has absorbed 781 significant strikes in UFC competition since Jan. 1, 2013, the most of any fighter in the company since that date. Lawler’s 539 significant strikes absorbed in UFC title fights are the most in history. Lawler’s significant strike disadvantage of -82 against Carlos Condit at UFC 195 marked the largest disparity in UFC history for a fighter who won a decision.”

If Dos Anjos can dictate the pace of their bout, either through his in-your-face striking attack or grinding wrestling game, it could put to the test a version of Lawler who has been increasingly inactive while sustaining an increasing amount of damage during his fights.

Because he remains so highly regarded, a victory by Lawler could conceivably set up a title rematch with Woodley. The current champion has struggled to find compelling and marketable challengers—and his efforts to lure in a big fish like McGregor or Georges St-Pierre have so far been unsuccessful.

Considering the unpredictable nature of the existing UFC landscape, all parties involved could do a lot worse than trying to set up a Lawler-Woodley rematch.

A loss to Dos Anjos, on the other hand, makes such ideas untenable.

It would push Lawler a step further down the path of age and diminished returns.

It would raise more questions about how long he can stick around and whether he can continue to avoid handing down his unique position in MMA to someone like Alvarez.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

Brian Ortega, Marlon Moraes Emerge as Top Contenders After UFC Fight Night 123

Two of the Octagon’s most intriguing young contenders both proved they are ready for prime time Saturday at UFC Fight Night 123.
Brian Ortega and Marlon Moraes each brought an exciting, highlight-reel finish to an otherwise decision-filled main card at…

Two of the Octagon’s most intriguing young contenders both proved they are ready for prime time Saturday at UFC Fight Night 123.

Brian Ortega and Marlon Moraes each brought an exciting, highlight-reel finish to an otherwise decision-filled main card at Save Mart Center in Fresno, California.

As the UFC picks up a bit of steam toward the end of its underwhelming 2017, Moraes should be closing in on a men’s bantamweight title shot. Meanwhile, Ortega may have significantly cut the line at men’s featherweight.

The 29-year-old Moraes needed a statement win and got one via first-round knockout of Aljamain Sterling.

 

As the former longtime 135-pound champion of World Series of Fighting, Moreas already enjoyed a significant amount of hype when he crossed over to the UFC at the beginning of the year. Unfortunately, much of that sizzle dissipated when he dropped his Octagon debut to Raphael Assuncao via split decision at UFC 212 in June.

Moraes bounced back to defeat perennial top contender John Dodson via split verdict on Nov. 11, and less than a month later, he knocked out the well-regarded Sterling in just one minute, seven seconds.

Just like that, Moraes recaptured much of his earlier momentum.

The future of newly crowned bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw is unknown. After kickstarting his second title reign with a victory over archrival Cody Garbrandt at UFC 217 on Nov. 4, Dillashaw may be headed for a superfight against men’s flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson.

The particulars of that bout still need to be worked out, however. If it doesn’t happen—or if Dillashaw emerges from a tangle with Johnson with the 135-pound title still around his waist—he might find Moraes waiting for him.

During an 11-0 run in WSOF from 2012 to 2016, Moraes notched seven stoppages and built a reputation as one of the best bantamweights in the world. In his first two Octagon appearances, however, that finishing ability was conspicuously absent, and Moraes had begun to fade into the background of the crowded UFC roster.

His performance against Sterling provided the standout moment he needed to reassert himself as a dominant force.

Moraes landed a knee flush on the jaw of the 28-year-old New York native during the early stages of their bout, dropping Sterling to the mat in an instant Knockout of the Year candidate.

Sterling remained down for several minutes and was taken out of the cage on a stretcher. In the wake of that scary scene, coach Ray Longo told MMA Fighting’s Ariel Helwani that Sterling was conscious and walking around backstage a few minutes later.

Longo said Sterling was taken to the hospital for precautionary reasons.

Meanwhile, Moraes had duly served notice to the rest of the 135-pound division.

“It’s so unbelievable when you train so hard for a fight and when you keep repeating the same thing over 10, 20, 30 times a day and it works in the fight,” Moraes said in a release. “In practice, we were always looking for the knees and the kicks.”

Ortega remained undefeated, advancing his overall record to 13-0-1 with a second-round guillotine choke victory over Cub Swanson in the evening’s main event.

It was Ortega’s fifth straight win in the UFC, all by impressive stoppages.

The 26-year-old Gracie jiu-jitsu product has steadily built himself into a modest star since his Octagon debut in July 2014. Aside from testing positive for a steroid in the wake of his first UFC appearance—originally a submission win over Mike De La Torre—he’s made all the right moves.

Saturday’s victory over Swanson was the biggest piece of the puzzle to date. It is believed former lightweight champ Frankie Edgar likely still has a date with 145-pound titleholder Max Holloway locked up after Edgar pulled out of a scheduled fight at UFC 218 because of injury.

Barring any unforeseen delays or injuries, Ortega could have the next one after Edgar.

 

The San Pedro, California, native has been a revelation, flashing some of the best submission skills in MMA and a stand-up game that seems to improve each time out. Against Swanson, the combination was good enough for Ortega to collect two of the UFC’s $50,000 performance bonuses—a fairly rare feat for a fighter in a single night.

It also netted him victory in his first UFC main event. Though Ortega came in on even standing with Swanson, according to Odds Shark, the win amounted to his highest-profile success in the Octagon.

It was a good time to make it look relatively easy.

Prior to this, Ortega had set a UFC record with four consecutive third-round finishes. Especially in his performances against Clay Guida and Diego Brandao, Ortega fell behind early before saving his undefeated record with late, comeback wins.

He didn’t need such last-minute heroics against Swanson.

The veteran fighter started well, bettering Ortega’s straight punches with looping power shots to the head and body. Ortega remained unfazed, however, and near the end of the first round caught Swanson in a D’Arce choke that might have finished the fight were Swanson not saved by the bell.

In the second, Ortega again ate some decent punches but forced a clinch against the fence and was able to secure a standing guillotine choke.

Swanson remained on his feet in an attempt to slip out of the submission. While hanging off the front of Swanson’s body with his arms around the man’s shoulders and neck, Ortega managed a beautiful adjustment to ratchet the hold tighter.

The 34-year-old finally succumbed and tapped out as the two crashed to the floor. His submission gave Ortega the victory at 3:22 of Round 2.

“He was in there trying to get in my head and he was landing some good shots,” Ortega said in a release. “I knew I just had to keep my cool and [not] go all-out. I was going to put the pace on him a little more in the third, but I’m happy it didn’t go that far.”

Holloway has been champion since unifying the titles with a third-round TKO of Jose Aldo at UFC 212. At UFC 218, he defeated Aldo—again by an impressive third-round stoppage—in their rematch.

Aldo came into that fight as a late injury replacement for Edgar. At least before Ortega’s impressive victory on Saturday, it was largely expected the champion would simply reschedule his date with Edgar some time early in 2018.

Ortega may now make that a more interesting decision for matchmakers. His undefeated record and deadly skill set give him the momentum, and after Saturday, he’s nabbed the attention of the UFC’s hardcore fanbase.

If not a title shot, Ortega could find himself in a No. 1 contender bout against Ricardo Lamas, provided Lamas is victorious over replacement opponent Josh Emmett at UFC on Fox 26.

Lamas was originally scheduled to take on Aldo in that bout before the Brazilian was pulled out to meet Holloway.

Regardless of what happens next for Ortega and Moraes, each man has established himself as a contender to watch in the new year.

As the UFC continues to search for new, marketable fighters to invest its significant resources in, that’s a good place to be moving forward.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

Is This Submission Wizard a Future Star or Just the Luckiest Man in the UFC?

If any one fight is emblematic of Brian Ortega’s undefeated UFC run so far, it’s his submission victory over Diego Brandao at UFC 195 almost two years ago.
Against Brandao, Ortega went to the final round needing to make something happen. During the fir…

If any one fight is emblematic of Brian Ortega’s undefeated UFC run so far, it’s his submission victory over Diego Brandao at UFC 195 almost two years ago.

Against Brandao, Ortega went to the final round needing to make something happen. During the first two periods, the more seasoned Brandao had landed the harder shots on the feet and scored some timely takedowns, all without slowing down as much as Ortega and his team had hoped he might.

As the third stanza began, it appeared the 30-year-old Brazilian was about to hand Ortega his first professional loss.

“You ready for a takedown or what?” cornerman Rener Gracie had asked Ortega between rounds. “You got one for me? He’s up two [rounds] on the cards right now, so we have to put him down.”

Ortega responded by pulling off what would soon become his calling card inside the Octagon—a late, come-from-behind victory.

After initiating a clinch near the fence with just over a minute gone in the final period, Ortega seized Brandao’s neck with an arm-in choke attempt. As Brandao dropped to the mat to escape, Ortega transitioned to a mounted guillotine and then into a triangle choke that forced Brandao to tap out.

It was a beautiful display of jiu-jitsu—the other thing that has been Ortega’s constant—and it allowed him to transform a near-certain defeat into a highlight-reel victory.

This wouldn’t be the last time, either.

As he approaches Saturday’s main event fight against Cub Swanson at UFC Fight Night 123, Ortega’s penchant for the dramatic has already proved historic. Simply put, he’s never out of a fight, and his four consecutive third-round finishes stand as the most of all time in the UFC.

Coupled with his otherworldly Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills and aggressive, evolving striking game, Ortega’s walk-off wins have made him a hot prospect in the men’s featherweight division. A win this weekend over Swanson—the weight class’ No. 4-ranked contender—could put him just a fight or two away from challenging new champion Max Holloway for the title.

Yet, Ortega’s pattern of last-minute heroics also raises questions about his long-term future as an elite 145-pounder. After all, you can’t have a bunch of dramatic comeback wins if you don’t consistently fall behind in your fights.

Is Ortega really as good as his sterling 12-0-1 record suggests? Or has he just gotten lucky?

Since debuting on the big stage in 2014, the flashy Gracie jiu-jitsu black belt has steadily proved he’s most dangerous when things look worst for him. The only bump in the road so far has been a July 2014 win over Mike De La Torre, which was later converted to a no-contest after Ortega tested positive for a steroid.

Otherwise, his record has been flawless, though he certainly hasn’t made it easy on himself.

Before Brandao, Ortega defeated Thiago Tavares via third-round TKO in a bloody, back-and-forth fight that earned both men $50,000 performance-based bonuses.

After Brandao, he stunned Clay Guida with a crushing knee to the face just 20 seconds before the final horn in a fight Guida was on the verge of winning.

In his most recent performance, Ortega conceded a rough second round to ninth-ranked Renato Moicano before roaring back to win via guillotine choke three minutes into the third.

Each time, the specter of a loss loomed until Ortega snuffed it out with a late finish. Has there been some good fortune involved in that streak? Sure.

Yet a closer look at the 26-year-old California native’s recent performances reveals there’s far more going on than just luck. Take a few minutes to learn about his background and it’s clear to see Ortega’s success is more about hard work than pure chance:

So far, Ortega has been well-conditioned and relentless in pursuit of victory. Those are pretty good qualities to have if you’re planning on setting up shop in the featherweight title picture.

“I go in there to kill,” Ortega said, just before the Moicano fight, via MMAjunkie’s Steven Marrocco and Ken Hathaway. “That’s all it means. I fight to the end.”

Ortega’s advanced skills are obvious. He’s light on his feet and athletic with his striking, sticking mostly to tight, straight punches but unafraid to mix in some spinning kicks and elbows when he’s feeling it. On the ground, he’s one of the most dangerous fighters in all of MMA, possessing an active offensive guard that makes even sturdy professionals nervous to tangle with him on the mat.

On top of that, Ortega has gotten some really good coaching, especially during his fights.

Against Guida, for example, Gracie told Ortega in the corner after the first round that Guida was lowering his head during their striking exchanges. Two rounds later, Guida tried to slip a barrage of punches from Ortega when he ducked right into the knee that ended the fight.

When things started out rocky against Brandao, his corner reminded Ortega the game plan was to drag the former Ultimate Fighter into the deep water of the late rounds. That’s what Ortega did, ultimately chaining together chokes until he got the finish in the third.

“Pretty much every time I train with the Gracie brothers, they’re just like blankets over me so I just did the same thing,” Ortega told UFC color commentator Joe Rogan in the cage after the Brandao win. “It’s something we train every day at the Gracie Academy. We go from choke to choke to choke to choke. You think you’re out of the fire, but you’re not.”

So more than sheer serendipity, you can chalk Ortega’s four straight third-round finishes up to his aggressive nature, his solid cardio and his talented team of coaches.

All the same, if his habit of being a slow starter is ever going to come back to haunt him, it could well be this weekend against Swanson.

The bottom line is nobody gets lucky against Cub Swanson. If Ortega wants to solidify himself as a legitimate title contender at 145 pounds, beating the longtime Team Jackson-Winkeljohn trained fighter will do the trick.

In recent fights, however, Swanson has proved a difficult out for up-and-coming UFC stars. His December 2016 fight against Doo Ho Choi followed much the same narrative as the Ortega matchup—seeming as though the fight company wanted to get the 26-year-old Choi a win over a recognizable Octagon veteran.

Swanson wasn’t having those plans, however, and defeated Choi by unanimous decision. He followed that win up by beating Artem Lobov in April 2017, making it four straight wins for him since back-to-back losses to Frankie Edgar and Holloway in 2014 and ’15.

Swanson doesn’t shape up as the kind of guy Ortega can fall behind to early, though the fact their bout is a five-round main event changes the dynamic a bit.

It means both guys will have ample opportunity to show what they’re made of.

For Swanson, that will require proving all over again that he’s nobody’s stepping stone.

For Ortega, a win here would prove he’s a lot more than just lucky.

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