Author: gameFIXer

UFC on Fuel TV 3- Post-Fight Recap

With his victory over Dustin Poirier last night at UFC on Fuel TV 3, Chan Sung Jung established himself as an elite fighter in the 135 pound division.  He didn’t turn the fight into an.


With his victory over Dustin Poirier last night at UFC on Fuel TV 3, Chan Sung Jung established himself as an elite fighter in the 135 pound division.  He didn’t turn the fight into an impossible to score brawl.  He didn’t catch Poirier with an early punch.  He was clearly the better fighter from the opening bell until the fourth round when he finished with a D’arce choke after dropping Poirier with an uppercut followed by a flying knee.  Poirier did well with his jab and may have won the third round with it but Jung was always the more dangerous fighter and never seemed to be in any danger.  The only weakness Jung showed was in his stamina as he appeared to tire toward the end of the third round.  He mentioned before the fight that he struggled with the weight cut.  He and his team will need to figure out a way to improve on that process to allow him to maximize his stamina for five round fights in the future.  But aside from that, his performance makes it impossible to consider him as anything other than one of the top featherweights in the world.  The win puts him no more than one fight away from a title shot and at the moment, he looks to be one of the few fighters in the division willing to face Jose Aldo.  Jung now has consecutive victories over top ten featherweights in Mark Hominick and Poirier and adding that to his entertainment value and marketability makes him the most likely candidate to face Aldo, provided he defeats Eric Koch at UFC 149 in July.  
 
Donald Cerrone didn’t have to prove that he was one of the best in the world in his weight class because we already knew he was.  But he did remind us just in case we had forgotten by dominating Jeremy Stephens for fifteen minutes.  By the second round, Cerrone seemed to be playing with Stephens and treating the fight more like a sparring match.  He used his kicks to maintain his reach advantage and Stephens was never able to close the distance enough to land punches.  Cerrone repeatedly battered his opponent with punching combinations punctuated with brutal leg kicks.  By the third round, he was even able to land a knockdown with a low kick.  Stephens hung in the fight and continued to throw punches, which if they landed, could have done some damage.  But he couldn’t get inside Cerrone’s reach and often led himself into counter knees to the body.  Cerrone belongs in the title discussion but with Benson Henderson and Frankie Edgar scheduled to fight in August and Nate Diaz already next in line, Cerrone is going to have to continue to fight through the absurd gauntlet of the UFC lightweight division if he wants a shot at the belt.
 
In other action on the card, Amir Sadollah earned a win with a questionable split decision over Jorge Lopez.  Neither fighter was overly impressive and both had chances to assert themselves and earn a clear victory.  Because they did not, the judges were left with a difficult fight to score and in that scenario, the fighters have only themselves to blame if they lose.  Lopez won the first round and Sadollah the second with the third being the round in question.  Two of the judges gave it to Sadollah based on his striking in the middle of the round and that was enough to earn him the win.  Despite the win, Sadollah will need to bring more to the cage in his next fight if he hopes to fulfill his promise as an Ultimate Fighter winner.
 
Yves Jabouin dominated Jeff Hougland and did everything except finish the fight.  Hougland showed a strong heart and could have allowed the fight to be stopped multiple times but forced to Jabouin to earn the stoppage, which Jabouin was unable to do.  Jabouin dropped Hougland in the first round with a spinning back kick to the body but was unable to finish.  He repeated the feat in the third round with a left hand to the jaw but once again, Hougland fought through and got back to his feet.  Basically, Jabouin did exactly what one would expect from him when facing an overmatched opponent.
 
In the slugfest of the night, Igor Pokrajac defeated Fabio Maldonado via unanimous decision.  Pokrajac showed growth building on his knockout of Krzysztof Soszynski.  He made the fight competitive on the feet landing knees from the clinch and punches on the outside.  When necessary, he mixed in takedowns and controlled Maldonado on the ground.  Had he simply taken Maldonado down and kept the fight on the ground, the fight would not have been nearly as close.  His willingness to stand with a professional boxer could have cost him the fight but he managed to absorb the punishment and earn the victory.
 
In the main card opener, Tom Lawlor knocked out Jason MacDonald early in the first round.  Both fighters started aggressively with MacDonald shooting for a takedown.  Lawlor stuffed it and landed a left hand to the chin, a right to the temple, another right on the ground and the fight was over.  The knockout gave Lawlor a much needed win and an opportunity to build some momentum going forward.
 
– Alan Wells

UFC on Fuel TV 3 (TONIGHT)- Crisper Betting Picks

Ok MMA fans, I have been looking at this card for over a week. Several interesting matchups tonight, especially from the mindset of the degenerate gambler. First of all, this looks like a CHALK nite.

Ok MMA fans, I have been looking at this card for over a week. Several interesting matchups tonight, especially from the mindset of the degenerate gambler. First of all, this looks like a CHALK nite to me. For all you non-bettors, that means the favorites look to roll tonight. I usually like to pick 1 “Dog of the Night” and my 3 FAVORITE FAVORITES.

I see value in the following favorites tonight…..Let’s make some money!!

TJ Grant – Ok, not a lot of value here, but he is far superior to Prater in this one. At -460, its time to GRAB YOUR NUTS and pray Grant doesn’t get caught with a flying knee or something weird. This is an early one, so get to the window (or your offshore spot online) asap. Grant wins to put us up 1 unit on the day (unless the gambling gods aren’t with us on this night).

Donald Cerrone (-250) – Never bet against a Cowboy…seriously he keeps this on his feet, he is the better striker, and he wins a unanimous decision. Cowboy is 3 inches taller with a huge reach advantage. His only danger becomes if Stephens gets inside and can operate. Go with the Cowboy to be up 2 units.

MAIN EVENT – Poirier, Poirier, Poirier. Korean Zombie is a scary cool marketing name….and that’s about it. Poirier’s camp knows how to control this one, and he will win a Unanimous Decison for a 3 UNIT NIGHT!

DOG OF THE DAY
Jorge Lopez (+110) – Not really sure why he is the “Dog” in this fight. He is more powerful and explosive, and very dangerous to Amir Sadollah. Lots of value here so put a half a unit on Jorge and watch him go…

BOOM – The Cookie Crisper

UFC on Fuel TV 3- Pre-Fight Analysis Part IV (Igor Pokrajac (24-8) vs. Fabio Maldonado (18-4)

Igor Pokrajac (24-8) vs. Fabio Maldonado (18-4) This fight forecasts to be a slugfest between two light heavyweights who both have knockout power. Pokrajac showed his power in his last fight with an impressive first.

Igor Pokrajac (24-8) vs. Fabio Maldonado (18-4)

This fight forecasts to be a slugfest between two light heavyweights who both have knockout power. Pokrajac showed his power in his last fight with an impressive first round KO win over Krzysztof Soszynski. Soszynski has been a durable fighter throughout his career so finishing him in under a minute showed a lot from Pokrajac. But he will face a different challenge in Maldonado who has just as many fights and a better record in boxing than he does in MMA. Maldonado lost a close fight with Kyle Kingsbury in has last UFC appearance after defeating James McSweeney in his debut. Even in the loss, Maldonado did serious damage to Kingsbury and one wonders how smart it would be for Pokrajac to stand and test his boxing.

Pokrajac would be best served to try to put Maldonado on his back and control him. Maldonado has a decent ground game but Pokrajac is definitely capable of grounding him with his wrestling and outgrappling him from there if he chooses to do so. Based on Pokrajac’s history, it seems likely that he will instead choose to stand and try to outstrike the man with a professional boxing background.

Maldonado is the favorite at -170 with Pokrajac the underdog at +140. The line is set appropriately considering that Pokrajac could win this fight if he employs the correct gameplan. But the bookmakers expect Pokrajac to stand as well and if he does, Maldonado should be able to outbox him to a decision.

Tom Lawlor (7-4) vs. Jason McDonald (25-15)

The headline fight has title implications. The fight between Cerrone and Stephens features two dynamic strikers. Amir Sadollah is an Ultimate Fighter winner looking to stay above water. But this fight has the potential to steal the show. Tom Lawlor and Jason MacDonald both give full effort to finish the fight with every technique.

MacDonald has been fighting professionally since 1999. He has seen the sport grow from a niche sport struggling to survive on PPV to a mainstream juggernaut with featured fights airing in primetime on network television. He can do everything. He isn’t the best in the world at anything but he will compete wherever the fight goes and that’s exactly what he’ll have to do in this fight because his opponent will determine where this fight takes place. Lawlor’s wrestling is the most singularly dominant aspect of either fighter’s game and he will have the choice of whether he wants to stand and strike with MacDonald or take him down and grapple. He will be better served to keep the fight standing as he has a clear advantage on the feet. Lawlor can finish with his hands and he should be able to outbox MacDonald. If he decides to play the ground game, things could get interesting. MacDonald is an explosive grappler who goes for the finish the whole time he’s on the ground. Lawlor’s wrestling is probably superior to MacDonald’s submission game but it would be fun to see them battle for position. If they go to the ground, we could see some fast transitions and entertaining scrambles.

Lawlor is the favorite at -205 with MacDonald the underdog at +165. Lawlor has the better all around game and represents a newer wave of of mixed martial artists who built on the foundation laid by fighters like MacDonald. I expect Lawlor to win by keeping the fight standing and outstriking his veteran opponent but if they decide to entertain us and roll for a while, anything can happen.

-Alan Wells

UFC on Fuel TV 3- Pre Fight Analysis Part III (Amir Sadollah (5-3) vs Jorge Lopez (11-2)

Amir Sadollah (5-3) vs Jorge Lopez (11-2) Amir Sadollah is well-known to MMA fans from his surprising run to win season seven of the The Ultimate Fighter. His win over C.B. Dolloway in the finale.

Amir Sadollah (5-3) vs Jorge Lopez (11-2)

Amir Sadollah is well-known to MMA fans from his surprising run to win season seven of the The Ultimate Fighter. His win over C.B. Dolloway in the finale was his first professional fight and all eight of his fights have come in the UFC. Since his win, he has struggled with injuries and lost every time he has been given a chance to step up in competition. No one would ever accuse the UFC of poor marketing strategy and they do a great job of getting the most out of the fighters who win on their reality show. Call it loyalty or call it branding but TUF winners generally stick around in the UFC. But another loss and an overall record of five wins and four losses would make it difficult for the UFC to continue giving Sadollah fights with so much talent on the roster at 170 pounds.

Enter Jorge Lopez. Lopez was not overly impressive in his first UFC fight though he did show some improvement toward the end of the fight. He doesn’t offer anything outstanding to trouble Sadollah and Sadollah should have the advantage everywhere in this fight. He has the ability to submit Lopez if Lopez takes him down and he’ll have an advantage standing that will be accentuated in the clinch. Sadollah’s knees are his most effective strikes and he will look to clinch with Lopez and unleash from there.

Sadollah is favored in the books at -200 with Lopez coming in at +160. Sadollah should be able to win this fight and a win would maintain his status as a viable commodity in the UFC. He should be looking to finish the fight and not just coast to a decision. A finish or at least a dominant decision would be a nice step in the right direction and could be a sign that he has fully recovered from all his injuries and is ready to fulfill the potential he showed when he originally burst onto the MMA scene.

Yves Jabouin (17-7) vs. Jeff Hougland (10-4)

This fight will feature a traditional MMA script. Jabouin is the striker with a well-rounded muay thai attack and he will do his best to keep the fight on the feet. Hougland is the grappler whose striking will serve solely to keep Jabouin honest and set up takedown attempts. On the surface, this looks like a bit of a mismatch with Jabouin being a clear favorite. But all of Hougland’s losses came in his first five fights and he won his UFC debut in a solid if not exciting decision over Donny Walker.

Jabouin has not achieved the level of success some predicted when he first entered the WEC. His muay thai is on point technically but he has not shown an ability to finish high level competition. He has split his last six fights and won his last two via split decision. His most recent fight against Wilel Watson was especially close and could have easily been scored a loss. If he wants to take the next step and be considered a major threat in the 135 pound division, he needs to make a statement against Hougland.

But it won’t be easy as Hougland will come in looking to increase his status and earn a huge victory for his career. To step up and take a fight as a replacement and earn a victory would certainly be impressive. To do that, he will need to get the fight to the ground. If he does, he has the submission skill to finish the fight. Jabouin has good balance and takedown defense but he can be dragged to the mat. Whether or not Hougland will be able to do so could be the determining factor in the fight.

Jabouin is heavily favored at -280 with Hougland at +220. One would have a difficult time finding someone willing to pick Hougland and I won’t go that far but Jabouin has not been overly impressive in his last few fights. Because of that, Jabouin should come out and look to finish a technically overmatched opponent in the first round. But if he is overconfident or finds himself playing the submission game with Hougland, we could see an upset. That said, I expect Jabouin to do his job and
dispatch Hougland quickly and impressively.

-Alan Wells

UFC on Fuel TV 3- Pre-Fight Analysis II (Jeremy Stephens (20-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (17-4)

Jeremy Stephens (20-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (17-4) While the headliner is the more important fight in terms of rankings and title positioning, this matchup is the favorite for fight of the night and should be.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Jeremy Stephens (20-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (17-4)

While the headliner is the more important fight in terms of rankings and title positioning, this matchup is the favorite for fight of the night and should be explosive from start to finish, which could come at any moment. Both Donald “ Cowboy” Cerrone and Jeremy Stephens are aggressive fighters who prefer to stand and strike. Both have been known to stay in the pocket and trade punches. Even to their own detriment. Both also find themselves in similar positions having lost to high ranking fighters in their last octagon appearance.

Stephens lost a close split decision to Anthony Pettis at UFC 136. A win over Pettis would have elevated him into the crowded top tier of 155 pound title contenders. The loss kept him just below that level where he has been stuck for years. Since 2009, Stevens has split his eight UFC appearances earning victories over Justin Bucholz, Sam Stout, Marcus Davis and Daniel Downs. In that same span, he has lost to Joe Lauzon, Gleison Tibau, Melvin Guillard and Pettis. That history establishes a clear trend of Stephens being unable to succeed against fighters at the peak of the lightweight division. He nearly broke that trend in his last fight and according to one of the three judges on that night, he did break the trend. He will look to build on that performance and finally obtain the signature win he has been seeking throughout his career. The matchup with Donald Cerrone offers that opportunity and the gameplan for Stephens should be similar to what we have seen with him in the past. His best weapons are his hands and he’ll look to use them to outbox Cerrone. While he doesn’t have the skill level required to repeat Nate Diaz’s recent performance against Cerrone, he will try to achieve the same results by keeping the pressure on Cerrone and outstriking him. Cerrone has never been knocked out but Jeremy Stephens has the power to be the first if Cerrone leaves him an opening.

Donald Cerrone is also coming off a loss to a top tier opponent but he was not as competitive in his fight with Diaz as Stephens was against Pettis. Cerrone was outboxed in a clinical performance by Nate Diaz, which probably says more about Diaz than it does about Cerrone. Cowboy has been one of the best lightweight fighters in the world over the last two years with his only clear losses coming to current UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson and Nate Diaz, who has been promised the winner of the upcoming championship bout between Henderson and Frankie Edgar. Cerrone has a more well rounded game than Stephens and he will look to capitalize on that in this fight. His standup features high level muay thai with great knees and kicks to go with his hands. He also possesses an underrated ground game but usually doesn’t show it because he prefers to fight on his feet. But if Stephens does decide to try to take Cerrone down, he will find himself in a dangerous guard. Cerrone is capable of from finishing from his back at any moment with a triangle or arm bar.

Cerrone is favored at -260 with Stephens at +200. Cerrone will have the upper hand wherever this fight takes place. If it stays on the feet, Cerrone’s muay thai is better than Stephens’ boxing and if it goes to ground, Cerrone has the clear grappling advantage. I don’t expect Cerrone to be able to finish Stephens but he should be able to batter him on the feet to win a unanimous decision.

-Alan Wells

UFC on Fuel TV 3: Pre Fight Analysis Part I (Dustin Poirier (12-1-0) vs Chan Sung Jung (12-3-0)

Dustin Poirier (12-1-0) vs Chan Sung Jung (12-3-0) Chan Sung Jung (aka The Korean Zombie) has quickly risen to the top of the list of MMA fan favorites. His attacking style lends itself to exciting.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Dustin Poirier (12-1-0) vs Chan Sung Jung (12-3-0)

Chan Sung Jung (aka The Korean Zombie) has quickly risen to the top of the list of MMA fan favorites. His attacking style lends itself to exciting fights and the finishes fans have come to expect from the sport. Beginning with his fights in Korea and Japan, global MMA fans watched him ascend from obscurity to mainstream popularity in just two years and he is now established as a headliner on a card that also features a former Ultimate Fighter winner in Amir Sadollah and one of the best 155 pound fighters in the world in Donald Cerrone. The question with Jung is whether his popularity has outpaced his skill level. The oddsmakers have Poirier as a solid favorite at -321 and any reasonable observer would have to agree that the line is right where it should be. But this is where one begins to run into problems when trying to breakdown an enigma like Jung.

Since he has come to the United States, he has engaged in one of the greatest fights in MMA history with Leonard Garcia, lost to George Roop via spectacular head kick knockout, beat Leonard Garcia and earned submission of the year with the first ever Twister in the UFC and knocked out Mark Hominick in seven seconds on his first punch of the night. Presented with just that information, one would wonder why he isn’t favored in this fight. The problem is that the reality of what took place in those fights is less exciting than the myth of the Korean Zombie. Leonard Garcia is one of the toughest, most entertaining fighters in the world at any weight class. He would fight Godzilla if someone would sanction it. And even if the scouting report said Godzilla had no ground game, Garcia would stand and throw haymakers until he got eaten. But he’s a mid-level opponent and beating him twice (which Jung did regardless of what the judges claimed to have seen in the first fight) doesn’t put a fighter in the upper echelon. The fight with Mark Hominick is even more misleading. What kind of conclusions can be drawn from a seven second fight? If Jung and Hominick were to fight 1000 times, how many times does the fight end that way? As exciting as it was, we didn’t learn anything from that fight. Add in the fact that George Roop clearly outstruck him in and knocked him out early in the second round and things get even more confusing. Who is Chan Sung Jung? Is he a mid level fighter with a knack for entertaining the fans or is he an upper echelon fighter who’s knockout of Hominick is a precursor of things to come? This fight should bring us closer to answering that question.

Dustin Poirier is one of the best young prospects in the 145 pound weight class. He has future title contender potential and this is his first opportunity to take a major step forward in marketability. He has the skills in every area to be great. Since coming to the UFC, he has improved with every fight. He beat the highly regarded Josh Grispi via unanimous decision, performed the same feat against Jason Young, submitted Pablo Garza via brabo choke and submitted Max Holloway via mounted triangle armbar. In his first two fights in the UFC, he controlled his opponents and clearly won the fights but his last two fights have been even more impressive with finishes that show his submission game is evolving rapidly. He clearly outclassed Garza in every aspect of the fight and when Garza failed to recognize the choke attempt in the second round, Poirier finished him quickly. He showed continued growth in the Holloway fight as he once again dominated and showed high level ground transitions in moving from an armbar to a triangle to a mounted triangle to a mounted triangle armbar. Holloway did not submit easily but Poirier would not be denied and once again, proved himself to be a level above his opponent.

This fight gives both fighters the opportunity they need. If Jung wins this fight, he will have to be considered as one of the top fighters in the weight class and might earn a title shot depending on what happens with the rest of the division. Hominick just fought for the title and Poirier is widely considered to be a top ten talent so back to back wins over those two might be enough to get what no one else at 145 seems to want, which is a title fight with Jose Aldo. Poirier likely has the same opportunity. Although his hit list would be less impressive than Jung’s, he has title level talent and if no one else is willing to fight Aldo, he could get his chance earlier than expected.

The line on this fight at the time of writing this article has Poirier favored at -321 with Jung the underdog at +279. That seems about right as Poirier clearly has the pedigree and talent advantage. But nobody thought Jung had a chance against Hominick and that fight ended with one punch. I expect Poirier to control the fight and win a unanimous decision but Jung has a habit of making measurables like pedigree and talent irrelevant. Can he do it again? We’ll find out on Tuesday night.

-Alan Wells