Author: Jeremy Fuchs

UFC 166: Breaking Down Keys to Dos Santos/Velasquez Trilogy

Junior dos Santos will take on Cain Velasquez in the third match of their epic trilogy, headlining what should be a fantastic UFC 166 on Saturday night.
The dos Santos/Velasquez rivalry is the best in MMA and one of the best in all of sports. Dos Santo…

Junior dos Santos will take on Cain Velasquez in the third match of their epic trilogy, headlining what should be a fantastic UFC 166 on Saturday night.

The dos Santos/Velasquez rivalry is the best in MMA and one of the best in all of sports. Dos Santos dominated the first match, winning in knockout fashion in just 64 seconds. His overhand right was simply overpowering.

Velasquez took the second bout a year ago, winning a one-sided five-round decision.

Now they face for possibly the last time, a win establishing the victor as the ultimate champ.

What are the keys for this heavyweight bout?

The first thing to watch for are the strikes landed. According to FightMetric, dos Santos lands 5.46 strikes per minute and only has a 49 percent striking accuracy. On the other hand, Velasquez lands 6.33 strikes per minute and has a 58 percent striking accuracy. 

Adding to that is the fact that dos Santos absorbs a gaudy 2.68 strikes per minute, while Velasquez absorbs just 1.56.

Obviously, Velasquez has the upper hand. In order to win, Velasquez will need to sustain that advantage. We know that dos Santos can land a powerful knockout blow, but odds are that Velasquez will be able to get off a barrage of punches. 

The strategy for Velasquez is pretty simple. He has to get off as many punches as possible before Cigano gets a knockout blow. 

Dos Santos does have an advantage in height. He’s 6’4″, while Velasquez is just 6’1″. They have the same reach, according to FightMetric, but dos Santos could try to use the extra three inches to get Velasquez to the ground. Cigano has a takedown accuracy of 67 percent, and while he doesn’t do it much—averaging just .61 takedowns per 15 minutes—it may be a way for him to win. If dos Santos can’t land the knockout blow in, say, the first two rounds, then the strategy might be to get Velasquez on the mat.

A final thing to look out for is injury. Dos Santos, according to MMA Junkie, suffered a facial laceration three weeks ago. “It was in the training (camp), and it was accidental,” dos Santos said. “I’m OK already. … I’m 100 percent already.”

While dos Santos is confident that his injury won’t be an issue, a relatively new facial laceration could open up during the fight. Blood could spew everywhere, as Velasquez did to Antonio Silva. If that happens, the fight will be all but over.

On paper, Velasquez looks to be the favorite. He has better numbers in almost every significant stat category, and the difference is typically wide. While dos Santos is capable of landing a knockout blow—like he did in their first bout—he’s going to need to do that early in the match. The longer this goes on, the harder it will be for dos Santos.

That said, the fight should live up to the considerable hype. These are two of the best fighters in the world right now. There is a long and storied history, and the winner will be able to settle, once and for all, who the better fighter is.

It’s a bit of a mismatch on paper, but that doesn’t mean it’s not going to be a big fight. It was the same mismatch headed into the first fight, and dos Santos shocked the world. 

I do think Velasquez will win. But it won’t be a one-round knockout. This will be a technically sound, enjoyable fight to watch that will captivate viewers everywhere. 

 

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UFC 162 Results: Breaking Down the Main Card Bouts

UFC 162 featured some pretty dominating performances in the main card. Whether it was Chris Weidman defiantly beating Anderson Silva or Cub Swanson showing what good conditioning can do, it was an entertaining main card.We’ll break down the main card b…

UFC 162 featured some pretty dominating performances in the main card. Whether it was Chris Weidman defiantly beating Anderson Silva or Cub Swanson showing what good conditioning can do, it was an entertaining main card.

We’ll break down the main card bouts and analyze why the winners won below.

 

Cub Swanson vs. Dennis Siver

Despite losing the first round, Cub Swanson dominated this match, showing better endurance and conditioning than Dennis Siver.

Siver was able to get Swanson on the mat in the first round, where he took care of business pretty easily.

But that was about the only highlight for Siver. He missed on three other attempts on takedowns. Swanson was simply faster, and his right uppercut was working nicely, as he hit on 47 of his strikes. Siver‘s lack of conditioning really showed, as he deteriorated pretty quickly as the match went on. 

Silver got worse as the match went on. After hitting on 26 percent of his strikes in the first round, he hit just 16 percent in the second round and only 12 percent in the third and final round. 

Swanson’s speed was the key here, and it made for a relatively easy win, even after losing the first round.

 

Mark Munoz vs. Tim Boetsch

Mark Munoz has dealt with injuries, but he was really impressive in his win over Tim Boetsch. 

Using his ground-and-pound game, Munoz simply tired out Boetsch, who ran out of steam by the end.

Munoz made Boetsch his punching bag, and after the first set, Boetsch really had no chance.

Munoz hit on 132 strikes, while Boetsch only hit on 50. Munoz was also dominant in takedowns, with five compared to just one for Boetsch.

All things considered, it was an easy match for Munoz, who once again proved the value of conditioning and aggressiveness. 

 

Tim Kennedy vs. Roger Gracie

Tim Kennedy dominated Roger Gracie in his unanimous-decision win. Kennedy fought out of a choke hold in the first round, which marked the beginning of the end for Gracie.

In fact, the choke hold, albeit unsuccessful, was Gracie’s best moment. Kennedy was faster, had better conditioning and was more effective on the mat.

Gracie couldn’t take advantage of his glorious opportunity in the first round. After that, he was really overmatched in the stand-up part and really struggled on the mat.

Kennedy hit on a remarkable 101 strikes, while Gracie hit on just 14. Gracie was only able to attempt 31 strikes.

Kennedy was solid in all facets, making this a pretty easy win for him.

 

Frankie Edgar vs. Charles Oliveira

Frankie Edgar gave up some size but used plenty of savvy to beat Charles Oliveira. 

Oliveira put up a good fight. He matched Edgar’s conditioning and held his own on the wall.

Still, Edgar was just better than Oliveira, using his speed, footwork and strong takedowns to win. He connected on 55 percent of his strikes, and Oliveira was unable to complete a takedown. Edgar converted two-of-five takedowns.

There’s a bright future of Oliveira, but Edgar was just too much in this match.

 

Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva

What was supposed to be the match of the night turned into a bit of a dud. 

Weidman beat Silva by knockout just over one minute into the second round.

Silva was taunting Weidman, dancing in and out of Weidman‘s fist, but eventually Weidman connected and the match was over.

Silva may have been overconfident or maybe just ignorant of Weidman‘s talent.

But Weidman was very smart, winning the opening round on points, where he earned a takedown, one of two for Weidman for the match. Silva, by comparison, did not have any takedowns.

It seems like Weidman finally figured Silva out. He didn’t buy Silva’s head games and proved that it’s pretty easy to beat Silva.

Weidman also hit on six more strikes that Silva, including the one that ended the match. Weidman was allowed 55 strikes, and while he only hit on 26, the amount of strikes indicates how much Silva was goading Wediman into hitting him.

This turned out to be a bad strategy, as Weidman finally hit hard enough to lead to a knockout.

Weidman could become the next UFC star, as he wins with both skill and intelligence. 

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Rashad Evans vs. Dan Henderson: Breaking Down Light Heavyweight Match

UFC 161 is around the corner, but the matchup of Rashad Evans vs. Dan Henderson is shaping up to be a bit of dud.Originally slated to be a co-main event, it has now been moved to the main event, due to injury. The bout will still be three rounds.Evans …

UFC 161 is around the corner, but the matchup of Rashad Evans vs. Dan Henderson is shaping up to be a bit of dud.

Originally slated to be a co-main event, it has now been moved to the main event, due to injury. The bout will still be three rounds.

Evans and Henderson are coming off of disappointing matches, as Evans lost in unanimous fashion to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC 156, and Henderson lost to Lyoto Machida at UFC 157

The two fighters are pretty evenly matched, with Evans just two pounds heavier. While Henderson is known for his heavy right hand, Evans puts up a pretty strong defense, avoiding 65 percent of punches thrown his way.

Evans is much better on the mat, as he has the most career takedowns in UFC light heavyweight history. Henderson is simply average at takedown defense.

The only way for Henderson to win is to avoid the mat. Ideally, he would knock out Evans early on with a wicked right, before Evans even gets a chance to use his ground and pound. If he can get a clean shot with his right, the match could be over very quickly.

If Evans can get Henderson on the mat, then it’s game over. The question is whether he will be able to before Henderson’s punches connect.

Another thing to look out for is Henderson’s age. Will Henderson, at age 42, see his skills diminish? Does he still have a little left in the tank, or will Evans be able to beat Henderson with superior athleticism? The longer this fight drags on, the more of a chance Evans has to win?

Still, it’s not like Evans is lighting it up right now. He admitted to not performing his best in UFC 156, telling Bleacher Report’s Trent Reinsmith that:

You definitely want to get the monkey off your back when you stink up the joint. As a fighter it sucks because you wear the hat of the last fight that you just fought until you fight another one.

There’s a reason this was supposed to be the co-main event. These two fighters are on the downside of their careers, and their two contrasting styles could lead to a long, dragged-out match without much action, as both fighters prefer to pick their spots to make their patented moves.

Because Evans has the clear advantage on the mat, look for him to quickly get Henderson on the ground and finish him that way. 

However it does end up, it won’t be the best UFC matchup. Unless one of these fighters finds their own glory, it will be a bit of snooze-fest. 

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Velasquez vs. Silva 2: Why Velasquez Will Win Rematch

Velasquez vs. Silva 2 should be an epic rematch of their heavyweight fight in UFC 146. Cain Velasquez won that match easily, and Antonio Silva will be eager to seek revenge. In Saturday’s UFC 160 pay-per-view main event, we should see a pretty bloody f…

Velasquez vs. Silva 2 should be an epic rematch of their heavyweight fight in UFC 146. Cain Velasquez won that match easily, and Antonio Silva will be eager to seek revenge. In Saturday’s UFC 160 pay-per-view main event, we should see a pretty bloody fight. 

Velasquez will be inclined to keep his heavyweight crown, while “Bigfoot” Silva, who beat Travis Browne and Alistair Overeem to get here, will do all he can to steal the title away.

However, Velasquez is just too good and Silva doesn’t really stand a chance.

Let’s remember that in UFC 146, Velasquez absolutely dominated. He scored a TKO victory at just 3 minutes and 36 seconds into the first round.

In addition, Velasquez is much better on the mat than Silva. Velasquez was a two-time All-American at Arizona State in wrestling. If this becomes a wrestling match, Silva will be at a huge disadvantage. Velasquez is simply quicker and more agile.

Velasquez has also improved his conditioning, something he showed off in his five-round victory against Junior Dos Santos. Silva, a big man at 6’4″ 263 pounds, can tire easily.

The longer this match goes on, the better chance Velasquez has. Silva has only gone past the first round seven times and has never gone five rounds in any fight in his career.

Silva does pack a pretty powerful punch, and he can win if he scores a knockout early. If he gets one big punch in, then we could see an upset.

However, Velasquez is too quick to get knocked out by one punch. His agility will make it hard for Silva to land a solid punch. Silva will have to be so overpowering that Velasquez has nowhere to go.

The blueprint for Velasquez to win is simple—get Silva tired and then use the mat to finish him. Velasquez doesn’t need to win early, although that would be welcome. In fact, Velasquez has a bigger advantage the longer the match goes on.

By forcing this match to be settled on the mat, Velasquez will dominate Silva. Of course, Silva will do what he can to get as many powerful punches in early on and knock Velasquez out before it can turn into a wrestling match.

That said, Velasquez has the upper hand. He’s the reigning champ and knows how to beat Silva. He’s very well-rounded and is solid, if not spectacular, in all aspects. He has the right skill set to beat Silva, and that’s why he will win this rematch.

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