Can Nick Diaz do with his words what most MMA observers believe he can’t do with his actions?
That is, can his trash talk get under the skin of welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre to the point where GSP will make a mistake Saturday in the Main Event at UFC 158 in Montreal?
It’s one of the most anticipated UFC matchups in years, and St-Pierre—No. 2 on most pound-for-pound lists—is a heavy favorite to defend his title. And one sportsbook is seeing steady and heavy UFC 158 odds action on GSP at -500 to win and on Diaz to pull the upset at +400.
“We spoke with a few online shops and it’s always the same with a GSP fight—he is a great draw for the sport and the sportsbook,” according to Jack Randall of OddsShark.com, who provided an email interview last night.
For bettors who don’t trust Diaz, the former Strikeforce champ, as a roughly 4/1 underdog, there are intriguing MMA prop options that could offer better value. The “fight goes to decision” option comes with a -260 price and “St-Pierre by decision” costs -240.
GSP has won 10 straight since 2007, but his last five fights went to a decision. Many handicappers are predicting a unanimous decision victory, but not Randall.
“I think GSP is so angry with Diaz‘s disrespect that he will really try to punish him and I foresee a stoppage later in the fight, maybe the fourth round,” he said.
The co-main event of the UFC 158 fight card is more closely handicapped and offers the MMA bettor a classic technical striker versus grappler-with-power matchup. Carlos Condit will face Johny Hendricks in a No. 1 contender fight with the winner likely getting the next shot at the Welterweight strap.
Hendricks is currently a -135 favorite at Bovada.lv while Condit will pay +115. This fight is too close to call, with The Natural Born Killer capable of defending any style and with Bigg Rigg a threat to end the fight early or grind out a win with his superior wrestling.
The Jake Ellenberger vs. Nate Marquardt matchup looks like it’s the best option for an underdog payday with Marquardt currently handicapped as the +145 underdog. Ellenberger is coming at a 5Dimes price of -165 but he could easily be dominated by Marquardt with dirty boxing and Octagon control.
Other action, with almost every scrap involving a Canadian fighting on home soil, includes (UFC 158 odds courtesy of OddsShark.com):
Nick Ring (-115) vs. Chris Camozzi (-105)
Colin Fletcher (+230) vs. Mike Ricci (-270)
Issei Tamura (+350) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (-530)
Quinn Mulhern (+270) vs. Rick Story (-390)
Daron Cruickshank (-195) vs. John Makdessi (+155)
Dan Miller (+190) vs. Jordan Mein (-270)
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