Author: Nathan McCarter

Study Finds Fighters That Smile Are More Likely to Lose

Michael Kraus, an assistant professor of psychology at the University of Illinois, and Teh-Way David Chen of University of California, Berkeley, did a recent study into the success rate of fighters that smile. The study was called A Winning Smile? Smil…

Michael Kraus, an assistant professor of psychology at the University of Illinois, and Teh-Way David Chen of University of California, Berkeley, did a recent study into the success rate of fighters that smile.

The study was called A Winning Smile? Smile Intensity, Physical Dominance, and Fighter Performance, and the PDF version of their full report can be downloaded here.

Their study took into account 152 unique fighters, or 76 staredowns and fights, between 2008 and 2009.

First, they coded the “intensity” of the smile from 0-2. The three ratings were: a neutral expression, a toothless smile, and a teeth-baring smile. These were compared to the fighter’s performances utilizing FightMetric reports. They took in to account their stats from FightMetric, height, and betting odds among other factors.

Winning fighters displayed less intense smiles than losing fighters t(150)=-2.69, p<.01 (see Figure 1, top panel). In a similar analysis, we also compared fighters who won the match in dominant fashion (i.e., winning by knockout or submission) to all other fighters. Again, this analysis yielded the predicted pattern of results: Fighters who won the match by knockout or submission tended to show less intense smiles than all other fighters t(150)=-2.08, p<.05 (see Figure 1, bottom panel).

Taken together, the results from Study 1 provide evidence largely in support of our overarching hypothesis: Increased smile intensity prior to physical combat predicted poorer performance by the fighter exhibiting the smile, and enhanced performance for his opponent.

The weigh-ins are continually a big part of fight week. Fans turn out by the thousands to see fighters make weight and then stare down their opponent. Spectators anticipate the animosity between fighters to provide a certain spark 24 hours before they mix it up in the cage.

Now, with this study, there may be more reason for fighters to avoid acting happy and cordial to their opponent.

Smiling at one’s opponent may alter how he fights the next day. He can view that grin as weakness. That his opponent will not be as aggressive, and that he now holds the upper hand. It could potentially give him the confidence boost he needs to outperform his counterpart in the bout.

Kraus has tried implementing this study in to predicting the outcome of fights.

With UFC 158 just a few days away we can now look deeper into fighters’ reactions during the weigh-ins. It gives us, the fans, something more to watch for during those Friday afternoons.

If nothing else, this is an interesting study that looks deeper into aspects of the fight game we rarely think about.

This could be just coincidence, but the findings should perhaps have fighters contemplating more mean mugging at the weigh-ins in the future. Any little bit helps, right?

Now we can await the first fighter to use this as an excuse for a loss.

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With Silva vs. Weidman Booked, Let’s Bury Talk of Superfights Forever

Anderson Silva vs. Jon Jones? Nope. Anderson Silva vs. Georges St-Pierre? Nuh-uh. The Spider will forgo a superfight and defend his UFC Middleweight Championship against the top contender, Chris Weidman. That is fantastic news, and now I propose we sto…

Anderson Silva vs. Jon Jones? Nope.

Anderson Silva vs. Georges St-Pierre? Nuh-uh.

The Spider will forgo a superfight and defend his UFC Middleweight Championship against the top contender, Chris Weidman. That is fantastic news, and now I propose we stop talking about superfights once and for all.

I, for one, have never been a fan of superfights. However, with so much fan support I have been resigned to believe that they will inevitably take place at some point whether they should or not. And they shouldn’t.

The biggest argument against superfights is that it takes fighters out of one’s division. Weight classes are there for a reason. And please do not argue that it will help us decide who is the pound-for-pound best. If that is your argument then you have misunderstood what the pound-for-pound rankings are.

Yes, Silva is a fantastic fighter who has gone up in weight before and found success. He has defeated a former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, but he is still a middleweight. Eventually, he would run up against a 205-pounder who is simply too large for him to defeat.

BJ Penn is the best example of this. Penn’s talent and athleticism allowed him to find success at welterweight against good competition. But what happened when he ran up against an equally talented fighter who held that same size advantage? He looked terrible. Time and again, he looked awful.

The same would happen to GSP and Silva if they moved up. You should not kid yourself with fantasies that they would dominate the next-highest division the same as they have their own.

The hot fight that everyone wants is Silva vs. Jones. In theory, that sounds fantastic. Two of the best fighters on the planet fighting one another. Look deeper.

Silva is the greatest fighter we’ve ever seen in MMA to date, but he is 37, soon to be 38, and on the downside of his career. Now, look at Jones. A 25-year-old super athlete who has yet to reach his prime and is still improving every aspect of his game.

And we have not touched on the physical advantages that Jones has over Silva. He is incredibly long. Jones is tied for the longest reach in the UFC with 7’0” Stefan Struve. He is a physical specimen who has destroyed the elite fighters in his division while still learning the all-around aspects of the game.

As for GSP-Silva, the stylistic matchup does not lend itself to a good outcome. Does GSP simply wrestle Silva down for five rounds in an uneventful decision, or does Silva leave GSP flattened on the canvas?

Does Silva have a chance? Does GSP have a chance against Silva? Yes, but it is not an evenly matched fight.

Furthermore, these fights are often a lose-lose proposition. If Silva does what he does best and finishes either of these men spectacularly then the UFC has one of their biggest draws eating canvas. Where do they go from there? They will lose some favor with the fans for joining the UFC’s highlight reel. And it could hurt them as fighters in the long run, too.

Now, I have no problem with fighters moving up or down weight if they want to. That is a part of the sport. If they do move divisions in the hopes of landing a fight then they should become full-time fighters of that division. Vacating their championship should be mandatory.

Should the UFC risk hurting one of their biggest stars for one big payday? These fights would also halt the respective divisions involved. Instead of GSP, Silva or Jones headlining pay-per-views against other top fighters in their divisions, those contenders would be sitting on the sideline.

It hurts the contender’s wallets. They miss out on marquee matchups while the rich get richer.

These big-money superfights sound great on paper. We would love to watch elite fighters against one another, but they are not worth it. They come with a host of problems. It is playing with fire.

Do you really want to see an aging middleweight take on a young, dominant physical beast of a light heavyweight this badly?

Superfights should be reserved for video games.

Let’s take our focus off these hypothetical fights and focus on the divisions, where numerous contenders lay waiting.

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Carlos Condit vs. Johny Hendricks Head-to-Toe Breakdown

UFC 158 is this Saturday on pay-per-view, and the co-main event of the evening will go a long way to determining who the next in line for a shot at the UFC Welterweight Championship is.Former interim UFC welterweight champion Carlos Condit battles No. …

UFC 158 is this Saturday on pay-per-view, and the co-main event of the evening will go a long way to determining who the next in line for a shot at the UFC Welterweight Championship is.

Former interim UFC welterweight champion Carlos Condit battles No. 1-ranked Johny Hendricks in the important divisional matchup.

Condit returns to action after losing his bid to become the undisputed champion back in November to Georges St. Pierre. Hendricks rides in on a five-fight win streak that has garnered him the top spot in the official UFC rankings.

Here is a look at how this crucial bout breaks down.

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Martin Kampmann Looking for Nick Diaz or Tarec Saffiedine for Next Bout

Martin Kampmann has not fought since being knocked out against Johny Hendricks at UFC 154, but that hasn’t stopped him from calling out top fighters for his next fight. Kampmann recently took to Twitter to do his bidding. He made it a point to call out…

Martin Kampmann has not fought since being knocked out against Johny Hendricks at UFC 154, but that hasn’t stopped him from calling out top fighters for his next fight.

Kampmann recently took to Twitter to do his bidding. He made it a point to call out the final Strikeforce welterweight champion, Tarec Saffiedine, and Nick Diaz.

He later responded to a fan that he would also be happy to fight Georges St. Pierre should Diaz pull off the upset this Saturday.

Kampmann is currently ranked seventh in the official UFC rankings. Saffiedine is locked in right behind him at No. 8. That fight makes perfect sense.

Neither Kampmann nor Saffiedine are currently booked for a fight, and with the welterweight division just days away from a serious shuffle, the winner of that fight could enter the top five of the division.

Saffiedine last fought in January. He defeated Nate Marquardt for the Strikeforce welterweight championship. He battered Marquardt’s leg throughout the bout and earned the unanimous decision on the scorecards. The win made sure he would be brought over to the UFC following the closure of Strikeforce.

Kampmann is unlikely to fight the loser of Diaz and GSP. Should the UFC look at that potential bout, the timing would force Kampmann to sit for several more months. Unless Kampmann truly wanted to wait until later this year to take the fight, it is much more sensible for him to take on Saffiedine.

As the UFC tries to keep its fighters active, Saffiedine is the much better choice for all involved.

The fight between Kampmann and Saffiedine would be an interesting striking battle.

They are both exciting fighters who like to exchange on the feet, and mix up their striking attacks well. The two welterweights also have good grappling, should they engage in that battle. Saffiedine has been training with Dan Henderson’s Team Quest since 2008, and his wrestling has improved since that time.

Each man enjoys a striking battle, and they would likely oblige one another. It would be a crowd-pleasing bout that would have the potential to contend for a Fight of the Night bonus.

The welterweight division will become more clear after Saturday. Many of the top ranked fighters are on the card looking to improve their standing and potentially become the next title challenger. The losers will move down the ladder, and that gives Kampmann and Saffiedine the chance to make their case later this year.

It is unclear if Kampmann’s campaigning will pay off, but as has been evident in the past week, it sure doesn’t hurt to try.

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Invicta FC 5: Early Preview and Predictions

Invicta FC comes back for its fifth show, and second of 2013.Lined-up for the event are two title fights. The main event of the evening will see Jessica Penne defend her Atomweight Championship for the first time against Michelle Waterson, and the co-m…

Invicta FC comes back for its fifth show, and second of 2013.

Lined-up for the event are two title fights. The main event of the evening will see Jessica Penne defend her Atomweight Championship for the first time against Michelle Waterson, and the co-main event, Barb Honchak vs. Vanessa Porto, will crown the first ever Invicta FC Flyweight Champion.

Also on the card will be the return of Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos and UFC bantamweight Sarah Kaufman.

The PPV event will feature 14 fights in total and be streamed on www.invictafc.com.

Here is an look at the card with early predictions for every fight.

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Does Mark Hunt Stand a Chance Against Junior Dos Santos at UFC 160?

The rallying can cease for the time being. Mark Hunt has earned his spot against Junior dos Santos at UFC 160. That is step one. The next step is winning the fight, but does Hunt (with a career record of 9-7) actually have a chance at the upset?Not a b…

The rallying can cease for the time being. Mark Hunt has earned his spot against Junior dos Santos at UFC 160. That is step one.

The next step is winning the fight, but does Hunt (with a career record of 9-7) actually have a chance at the upset?

Not a big one, no.

Many will instantly repeat the go-to lines of, “anything can happen with four-ounce gloves” and “he has a puncher’s chance.” Both statements are true, but they do not accurately break down Hunt’s chance against JDS in the co-main event.

Hunt is a K-1 World Champion, but that gives out a preconceived notion about his striking. As Bleacher Report’s Jack Slack pointed out in his breakdown of Hunt’s striking, “He lacked a lot of polish in K-1 even after improving his technique.”

Hunt is going to have a lot of problems against dos Santos.

The former UFC heavyweight champion loves to stand and trade leather and will probably test the waters against Hunt as well. However, if he does want to take the fight to the mat and go for a submission, he can submit Hunt with relative ease. We may finally get to see some of his jiu-jitsu on display in this fight.

On the feet, JDS also will prove to be a difficult out for Hunt.

Stefan Struve’s striking is nowhere on the level of dos Santos. JDS proved that by the first-round knockout when those two met in 2009. Struve has an all-around problem in his striking defense. That gives quality strikers like Hunt plenty of opportunities to level the tallest fighter in the UFC.

JDS will not give those same opportunities to Hunt. The former champion will not give him those chances early in the fight.

Slack’s post-fight analysis of the Hunt-Struve fight shows you, in detail, why Hunt caught Struve, and it can give you an idea of why he is not likely to catch dos Santos.

Dos Santos’ boxing is much more proficient than Struve’s. He utilizes much better footwork and head movement. Where Struve stood still when throwing his jab, dos Santos will not.

When Hunt tries to counterattack, JDS will simply not cover up and give him openings to the body and behind his arms.

This is a good matchup for dos Santos. He can keep the fight standing if he chooses or take this fight to the ground. So, when does Hunt’s chance to upset dos Santos come?

It can come late.

For all of dos Santos’ skills and abilities, he has shown a habit of tiring later in the fight. Part of the issue is his high output of punishment in the early rounds, and anyone who can absorb his blows will be able to be around in the third. Hunt can definitely take the blows.

When fighters begin to tire, their defenses start to show holes. That is where one well-placed punch can rock the former champion and end the fight.

Hunt’s chances to win are bleak.

It is accurate to say Hunt has a “puncher’s chance,” but that will not be in the opening minutes of the fight. Hunt will have to wait until dos Santos slows and shows some openings late in the fight. If Hunt can hang around until then, he has a small window of opportunity to shock the MMA world and become the top contender for the UFC Heavyweight Championship.

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