Floyd Mayweather Jr. is still the firm favourite to beat Conor McGregor on Saturday, August 26, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
One of the best prop bets has Mayweather winning by some form of knockout or stoppage. Meanwhile, McGregror finishing his opponent off quickly is a bet with long odds ahead of the weigh-in on Friday.
McGregor is facing a challenge to make the fight limit of 154 pounds. However, the Irish UFC superstar’s tougher task will likely be surviving for long against a boxer as skilled as Mayweather, who is tipped at -450 (bet $450 to win $100) to win, per Joe Osborne of OddsShark.
The same source puts McGregor’s chances for victory at +325 (bet $100 to win $325).
Those odds are a reflection of the sentiment McGregor will be outclassed, and quickly, by a fighter with more experience and skill between the ropes. It’s not an unreasonable assumption since Mayweather is one of boxing’s greats, while McGregor is a novice in a pro ring.
Even so, the disparity in boxing pedigree hasn’t deterred a typically boastful McGregor from making the following confident prediction about the outcome, per Justin Hartling of OddsShark: “As far as the fight, he will be unconscious inside four rounds. My movement, my power, my ferociousness—he’s not experienced it.”
However, as Hartling noted, the chances of McGregor finishing off a fighter with a 49-0 record in four rounds or less are rated at +500. Of course, if McGregor were to catch Mayweather with a haymaker from his ferocious left hand bettors brave enough to risk these odds would likely be handsomely rewarded.
Yet the chances of such an event happening would depend largely on Mayweather taking this bout for granted. Such complacency hasn’t been common during his decorated career.
It’s much more likely Mayweather makes good on the -125 odds of a win by KO, TKO or disqualification, per more odds relayed by Hartling. Mayweather is also backed at +250 to win by decision, per the same source.
The notable difference between those odds is no doubt due to the feeling this fight is unlikely to go the distance, even though Mayweather “hasn’t scored a KO since a controversial fourth-round stoppage of Victor Ortiz in 2011,” per ESPN.com’s Dan Rafael.
Even so, going the distance would demand McGregor proving he has the stamina to trade punches and match movement with a boxer as experienced as Mayweather.
Doing so will prove too tall an order for McGregor, despite his bravado. Instead, Mayweather will wrap things up in the fourth round with a KO stoppage.
Prediction: Mayweather wins by KO in the fourth
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