The entire MMA universe seems to have lost its mind over the upcoming UFC featherweight title unification bout between Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor.
Promoters have become fans. Fans have become zealots (Warning, NSFW Language). Fighters have become sideshows (Warning, NSFW Content).
The greatest testament to how wild McGregorMania is running, however, is that bookies have become seemingly marks. That’s what the opening line for the upcoming Aldo vs. McGregor bout would suggest, anyway, with the challenger, yes the challenger, opening as almost a 2-1 favorite over the champion (+155 vs. -190, to be exact, via OddsShark.com).
To say this is a surprise would be an understatement, of course.
Aldo is pegged by many as the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport today. Some even made that claim before the UFC indefinitely suspended Jon Jones. His steely takedown defense and safe-but-devastating striking style make it incredibly difficult to take a single round off him, never even mind three of five.
Making this even more perplexing is how the Aldo vs. McGregor line has practically flipped in the months since UFC 189.
Aldo opened as a moderate favorite ahead of UFC 189 (-140, via BloodyElbow.com) but, as all fans remember, a rib injury forced him off the card, McGregor instead faced off with top-five mainstay Chad Mendes, taking a TKO victory in the second round.
While it was an impressive victory, it failed to provide any moments that would suggest his chances against Aldo have improved in any way. On the contrary, the well-established flaws with McGregor’s striking game — his willingness to lunge in on opponents, and his disinterest in using his reach for anything but unrelenting offense — were present and accounted for. His increased willingness to let opponents test his chin is also cause for concern, as BloodyElbow’s Connor Ruebusch spelled out:
Let’s be honest: Conor didn’t fight particularly smart. He walked into counter punches almost at will. He spent a good portion of the fight on his back taking hard punches and elbows from a powerful hitter. He didn’t seem capable of adapting to the various threats that Mendes presented. A gamble does not become smart simply because it pays off in the end.
Oh, and the questions about his ability to handle wrestlers? Those were answered with an emphatic “yeah, his takedown defense isn’t good.”
This isn’t to say McGregor can’t beat Aldo, mind you (yours truly even picked McGregor to win at UFC 189). The champ still tends to look shaky against multifaceted strikers, and he has never been forced to work with his back to the cage for a prolonged period of time.
Aldo is a wonderful matador when he has the center of the cage and controls the pace of the fight, but McGregor has thus far proven himself to be an absolute expert at choosing where, when and how the fight will happen. If McGregor can impose his will and drag Aldo out of his comfort zone, we could see a new UFC featherweight champ.
Do those last two paragraphs, however, read like something written about a -190 favorite?
Sure, this is still MMA betting we’re talking about. Absurd lines have never been especially uncommon (remember, these are the people that had Matt Brown as a substantial underdog against Erick Silva). This, however, represents one of the rare moments where betting sites throw conventional wisdom to the wind and make the kind of moves a fan would make.
The +155 line on Aldo will likely shift, of course. That’s too tempting to pass up for any avid, savvy bettor. The fact this conversation even exists, though, shows how truly absurd MMA has become in this McGregor era.
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