Talk about starting the summer off with a bang.
This Saturday at UFC 131, Junior dos Santos and Shane Carwin square off to see who will get the next shot at the UFC heavyweight title.
For Carwin’s part, he knows that cardio is his Achilles heel. So he cleaned up his diet and will come in about 20 pounds lighter.
Presumably, however, none of that weight came out of those 5X fists. So while his cardio may have improved, Carwin’s strategy will likely be the same as it ever was: knock. him. out.
Known as a standup artist himself, dos Santos may nevertheless be looking for something else besides a toe-to-toe war. According to the Las Vegas Sun, by way of Bleacher Report, dos Santos noted, “The strategy is the only thing that’s changed…Against a guy like Brock, I would feel a little more comfortable on my feet. Fighting a guy like Shane, I’m going to have to be a little more cautious.”
So what does that mean, exactly? Are we going to see dos Santos test his jiu-jitsu? The guess here is, not quite. Rather, El Cigano’s blueprint will be to test the endurance of the new and improved—but untested—Shane Carwin.
But let’s back up for a quick second. Back to the ground game, where both men are pretty darned talented. Carwin was a D-II wrestler and a jiu-jitsu purple belt, while dos Santos is a BJJ brown belt under the Nogueira brothers. Both fighters have pulled submissions in their career, but Carwin has a 4-1 edge there. Carwin has also scored takedowns, while dos Santos’ bona fides there are minimal.
So in summary, Carwin has a small edge on the mat, but in real time they are probably even enough to cancel each other out. So while some are calling for Carwin to take it horizontal, I imagine Dos Santos poses juuuust enough of a ground threat to keep it standing, with a takedown serving as Carwin’s escape valve.
In other words, I see this one staying upright. But I don’t see it being a hang-in-the-pocket-and-bang fest, either. And that brings us back to El Cigano’s quote from above.
To reiterate, everyone on planet Earth who cares about such information knows that Carwin’s weakness is his cardio. Everyone also knows dos Santos is relatively solid in this area. On paper, this is the biggest mismatch between the two fighters.
Why wouldn’t Dos Santos look to exploit that by moving around in the Octagon, scoring points while drawing out the contest, avoiding Carwin’s devastating power and using his razor-sharp jab from the outside to set up his finishing uppercut?
To answer my own rhetorical question, I don’t know why he wouldn’t. I guess that’s why I think he will.
Though I believe Carwin’s cardio may have improved, the onus is on him to prove that. Dos Santos would be right not to simply assume Carwin’s cardio is no longer an issue; to force him to prove it, in other words.
And while dos Santos looking for points over the highlight-reel knockout (at least initially) may not be what a lot of fans want, it is what will give him the best shot to win this fight.
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