The wait is over for Max Holloway’s first UFC featherweight title defense.
While his opposition may have changed, he still faces a stiff test against former champion Jose Aldo.
UFC 218 at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit promises to be just as exciting as UFC 217’s blockbuster main card. While there is only one title fight on tonight’s card instead of the three we saw last month in New York, there are still some scintillating matchups. Those include Eddie Alvarez vs. Justin Gaethje, Sergio Pettis vs. Henry Cejudo and, of course, the co-main event between two of the biggest names in the heavyweight division: Alistair Overeem vs. Francis Ngannou.
Let’s a take a quick look at tonight’s full lineup of prelims and main-card bouts before diving into predictions on the co-main and main event of the evening.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.
Main card (PPV at 10 p.m. ET)
Max Holloway (-185) vs. Jose Aldo (+148)
Alistair Overeem (+179) vs. Francis Ngannou (-221)
Henry Cejudo (-367) vs. Sergio Pettis (+283)
Eddie Alvarez (+185) vs. Justin Gaethje (-235)
Tecia Torres (-174) vs. Michelle Waterson (+146)
Undercard (Fox Sports 1 at 8 p.m. ET)
Charles Oliveira (+136) vs. Paul Felder (-164)
Alex Oliveira (-208) vs. Yancy Medeiros (+172)
David Teymur (-167) vs. Drakkar Klose (+134)
Felice Herrig (-167) vs. Cortney Casey (+134)
Undercard (UFC Fight Pass at 6 p.m. ET)
Amanda Cooper (-333) vs. Angela Magana (+250)
Abdul Razak Alhassan (-250) vs. Sabah Homasi (+195)
Jeremy Kimball (+285) vs. Dominick Reyes (-385)
Justin Willis (-222) vs. Allen Crowder (+175)
Co-main Event: Alistair Overeem vs. Francis Ngannou
It’s a tale as old as time: the hungry, new up-and-coming fighter vs. the experienced and highly regarded opponent. Going up against Overeem is the ultimate test of Ngannou‘s young career, although he has overcome much tougher situations in his life.
A spectacular victory over Overeem would place Ngannou, who is entering his sixth UFC fight at UFC 218, in front of the line for a title shot, if not a title eliminator with Fabricio Werdum.
For Overeem, a win grants him an automatic title shot. After all, he is coming off consecutive victories over Werdum and Mark Hunt after a loss to heavyweight champion Stipe Moicic in which he nearly took victory.
The UFC has invested heavily in Ngannou over recent months, and for good reason.
His insane punching power combined with his hand speed and ability to learn new techniques on the fly is the perfect formula to becoming a UFC champion. It seems as though it’s not a question if Ngannou will become the heavyweight champion, it’s just a matter of when.
Overeem will enter this fight cautious of Ngannou‘s power and try to create distance with his front-leg kicks to the body to slow down his opponent in the opening round. But Ngannou will soon realize Overeem isn’t willing to engage and look to force the Dutchman onto his back foot to push him against the cage.
From there, he will unload on Overeem’s body, which will eventually open up potential knockout shots to the head.
Overeem is one of the most skilled strikers the UFC has ever seen, but it’s time for a new era of fighters. And Ngannou is the future face of the heavyweight division.
Prediction: Ngannou defeats Overeem by second-round KO.
Main Event: Max Holloway vs. Jose Aldo
We’ve watched this movie before. Back in June, to be exact, at UFC 212. But whoever said that the sequel can’t be as good as the original?
It was disappointing to see Frankie Edgar have to pull out because of injury just a matter of weeks before his title shot against Holloway. But, as the Waianae, Hawaii, native would say, “It is what it is.”
Aldo is coming off a second round TKO loss to Holloway and is coming in on short notice. Cardio was Aldo’s downfall against Holloway back in June, and it’s hard to believe he has resolved those issues on short notice. Holloway would have been preparing for a tough, grinding grappling match against Edgar, too.
Holloway has gotten better with each fight inside of the Octagon. At just 25, that’s not surprising; he hasn’t even entered his prime, which is a terrifying thought for aspiring contenders at 145 pounds.
Aldo is clearly at the tail-end of his career and has been looking less and less like the guy who dominated the featherweight division in the WEC and UFC for the better part of a decade. The famous leg kicks haven’t been there in his recent fights, injured or not. Aldo prefers to stand and trade with punches rather than mix things up with leg and body kicks.
Look for the Brazilian to change things up a little bit this time around, as he knows he can’t just stand and trade with a taller and more accurate striker. He will shoot for takedowns but will get stuffed by Holloway, who will have been preparing to stuff takedowns in training for Edgar.
Holloway will take Aldo into deep water again and wait for Aldo’s adrenaline to diminish. Aldo’s cardio will betray him in the second round, and Holloway will finish him with another impressive combination from the feet.
Prediction: Holloway defeats Aldo by second-round TKO.
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